'21 Fantasy Baseball Prep: 3B, Disparity in the Ranks
- Michael Obermuller
- Mar 23, 2021
- 7 min read
Updated: Mar 29, 2021
Not to say there are no sleepers at third base, but compared to the other positions I've written about so far, third base definitely seems more top-heavy than most. You're probably going to want to get your hands on a tier one or two third baseman in 2021 because of this disparity, while a position like 2B (or even 1B) might warrant a sleeper selection. As we sift through this deep dive, I'll go into more detail on who I believe is worth that early draft pick, and who you should target if you miss out on all the big bats.
Format: In 2021 I will be using positional rankings by FantasyPros (as of Mar. 23) as I highlight;
targets- deemed an adequate value at projected rank
sleepers- deemed a plus value at projected rank
avoids- deemed a lower value than projected rank
busts- don't draft, period
Position eligibility is based on ESPN Fantasy. Projected points are based on the point settings of an ESPN fantasy league I have been a part of for 10+ years (below), and do not always correlate with the rankings:
Single- 2, Double- 5, Triple- 15, HR- 10(+RBI/Run),
RBI- 5, Runs- 3, Walk - 2, Stolen Base- 3
(negatives) K's- 2, Caught Stealing- 2, GIDP- 5
*Eligible but non-primary third basemen will be listed at the bottom of this article, and discussed in more detail during their own primary position write-up.
Links to Additional 2021 Fantasy Baseball Articles:
TIER 1
**Key- Position Rank/Overall Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points) [ADP]
1/11. Jose Ramirez, Indians (1586) [10.0]: (TARGET) It's hard to believe that Jose Ramirez is only 28 years old, because he's been in the MLB since age 20. Technically, some might say the "veteran" is still very much in his prime, and his polished 2020 sprint supports that narrative. Ramirez averaged 11.7 points per game (PPG) last year, and led 3B in both total and average points. In fact, he was second in total points for all batters in 2020, behind Freddie Freeman.
2/17. Manny Machado, Padres (1328) [20.0]: (TARGET) Many were concerned about a drop-off in production for Machado when he first signed in San Diego, including me, but if anything Manny has fed off the energy of teammate Fernando Tatis Jr. The duo has become one of the most feared partnerships in baseball, and it's hard to see Machado being a bad pick the more the Padres turn into a top franchise. Round two draft target.
3/26. Anthony Rendon, Angels (1486) [27.0]: (TARGET) I was nervous about Rendon last year only because he was coming off a career season and a monster contract. He performed adequately with 8.3 PPG. Now I'm a supporter again. The easy things to love about Rendon's fantasy appeal? He rarely misses games (136 G in 2018 was most missed since 2015), doesn't strike out often (under 14 percent the last four seasons), and bats for high average (has batted over .300 each of the last four seasons except 2020).
4/34. Rafael Devers, Red Sox (1308) [41.0]: (TARGET) As you can see, and this is rare for me, there's really no player I dislike in this top tier in 2021. I was high on Devers last season, and although he didn't really stand out, he wasn't terrible either. Just 24 years old, the Red Sox third baseman is one year removed from a breakout season of over 1,650 points. He is having a cold start in Spring Training, batting .189, but he also has three homers and eight RBI.
6/37. Alex Bregman, Astros (1531) [33.0]: (TARGET) I get it, some people are still down on Astros players based on the sign-stealing scandal. Maybe the smart move is to avoid them all, but I think you have to go case by case. Bregman is a young superstar in his prime coming off a season filled with pesky injuries. If anything, he's severely under-ranked.
7/46. Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (1258) [34.0]: (AVOID) Personally, I've had Arenado as a keeper in one league for what feels like forever, but this is the year I finally set him free. I would consider drafting him again in round four if he falls that low, but his downward fantasy trend is otherwise concerning. St. Louis isn't the worst place for hitters, and Paul Goldschmidt certainly performed when he transitioned over, but coming from Coors Field it'll be a challenge for Arenado to post the same type of numbers. Tier two target.
TIER 2
8/59. Eugenio Suarez, Reds (1165) [64.0]: (AVOID) Suarez has been one of the best home run hitters in baseball since 2018, but he's also a strikeout king who totaled 189 K's in 2019. This Reds lineup is getting worse around him, and Suarez is approaching age 30.
9/83. Yoan Moncada, White Sox (989) [94.0]: (TARGET) Moncada's rampant strikeout numbers are definitely a problem, but he's having an encouraging Spring with six walks compared to seven K's (.306 batting average). Starting in one of the best lineups in baseball, I'm willing to take the chance on Moncada having a bounce-back season.
11/97. Matt Chapman, Athletics (1154) [102.0]: (SLEEPER) A torn labrum in his hip limited Chapman in 2020, and he still averaged 7.8 PPG. I predicted an MVP campaign from the A's third baseman last year, but maybe 2021 is the season for Chapman's breakout.
13/100. Kris Bryant, Cubs (1007) [114.0]: (AVOID) KB has been a fantasy disaster since his MVP season (despite his 31 HRs during the juiced ball year), and 2020 may have been rock bottom. 4.9 PPG, .206 average and 11 RBI compared to 40 strikeouts. Some managers might buy low and bet on a comeback, but I'll steer clear until I see signs of life.
14/108. Alec Bohm, Phillies (1041) [109.0]: (SLEEPER) Turning 25 in August, Bohm is poised for a breakout in Philly. He's off to a fantastic start, with a .410 on-base percentage and .324 average this Spring.
16/138. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pirates (1000) [137.0]: (SLEEPER) The Pirates top prospect wasted no time displaying his ability in 2020, batting .376 with five homers and 11 RBI in 24 games.
18/145. Gio Urshela, Yankees (1053) [153.0]: (TARGET) Urshela has found himself in the Bronx, after almost washing out of the MLB in Cleveland and Toronto. His defensive upside provided him one last opportunity, and he's run with it, accomplishing noticeable increases in his exit velocity, hard-hit ball and line drive percentages. I'm always wary that Gio will return to his sub-par fantasy bat, but at 3B18 in this stacked Yankee lineup, he's definitely worth a flier.
20/153. Josh Donaldson, Twins (907) [178.0]: (BUST) My first 3B bust comes pretty low in the ranks, but as I mentioned in the intro, this position is front-loaded. At age 35, coming off a poor 60-game season, Donaldson is both an injury and regression risk.
TIER 3
21/158. Justin Turner, Dodgers (1005) [195.0]: (AVOID) Although Turner is still ultra-consistent for his age (and in a tremendous lineup), he may lose out on playing time to Dodgers prospect Edwin Rios. Too many risk factors to rely on.
23/161. Tommy Edman, Cardinals (977) [148.0]: (SS/RF/OF eligible) (AVOID) With Nolan Arenado joining the Red Birds, Edman will likely start at 2B, or be used all over. Either way, his slugging percentage must improve (.368 in 2020) to become fantasy relevant again.
24/186. Austin Riley, Braves (937) [220.0]: (BUST) Spring Training numbers matter for some players more than others, and Riley is one of those guys where it matters. The MLB seemed to figure him out pretty quickly after his rookie explosion, and the Braves prospect never made the proper adjustments. He is batting .200 in Spring with 1 RBI, and there's no guarantee he'll earn a full-time starting role (Ehire Adrianza and Johan Camargo could push for playing time).
27/205. Brian Anderson, Marlins (1014) [257.0]
29/213. J.D. Davis, Mets (701) [236.0]: (AVOID) Under new management, the Mets made very public efforts to replace J.D. Davis this offseason (mainly because of his defense). This could inspire Davis, but I'm worried Jonathan Villar or Luis Guillorme may replace him at the first sign of trouble.
30/221. Eduardo Escobar, Diamondbacks (1073) [259.0]: (AVOID) Man was I wrong about Escobar in 2020. Now one year later I feel it's tough to trust a strikeout-heavy low average power bat on the wrong side of 30.
31/228. Kyle Seager, Mariners (1080) [242.0]: (NEITHER) The ADP is low enough where I don't hate taking Seager, but don't have any delusions about what he is at this age. The Mariners third baseman has been with the franchise all 10 of his MLB seasons, and although he had a very lucrative 2020 at 8.4 PPG, the longer campaign should wear on the veteran.
LONGSHOTS
40/319. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers (703) [291.0]: (SS eligible): (BUST) Might actually start at shortstop or third for the Rangers this season, but really only held fantasy value when he was catcher eligible. Those days might be gone.
45/378. Maikel Franco, Orioles (951) [447.0]: (SLEEPER) This was the perfect fantasy destination for free agent Maikel Franco (who only signed last week). In Baltimore, Franco will start consistently and possibly move up in the order. He should also benefit from one of the best hitter's parks in baseball. Get him while he's still under the radar.
46/379. Joey Wendle, Rays (609) [321.0]: (2B/SS eligible)
49/392. Evan Longoria, Giants (785) [525.0]
58/820. Asdrubal Cabrera, Diamondbacks (797) [420.0]: (1B eligible)
62/611. Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (568) [609.0]: (AVOID) With no DH rule in place, Carpenter is now the odd man out in St. Louis.
64/563. Marwin Gonzalez, Red Sox (294) [414.0]: (1B/2B eligible): (BUST) Marwin Gonzalez has no fantasy relevance on this oversaturated Red Sox roster.
WATCH LIST
52/421. Yandy Diaz, Rays (510) [539.0]: If Diaz can garner steady playing time again, he has power potential at the plate.
53/489. Carter Kieboom, Nationals (527) [392.0]: Rumor is that Kieboom may be on a tight leash in 2021, he was miserable with the bat last year.
55/466. Luis Urias, Brewers (642) [517.0]: (2B eligible): Role unclear in this crowded lineup.
56/420. Edwin Rios, Dodgers (457) [428.0]: Yet another Dodgers prospect to watch, but with so many roadblocks ahead of him on this roster, Rios may be a year away from fantasy relevance.
63/723. Jonathan India, Reds (486) [765.0]: More of a long-term dynasty league type stash. India could win the starting 2B job in Cincy, but he currently only has 3B eligibility on ESPN.
3B Eligible, but not considered third basemen by trade
5/36. DJ LeMahieu, Yankees (1262) [24.0]: 2B/1B/3B
10/89. Cavan Biggio, Blue Jays (1161) [60.0]: 2B/3B/RF
12/99. Max Muncy, Dodgers (1191) [98.0]: 1B/2B/3B
17/94. Jeff McNeil, Mets (1155) [101.0]: 2B/LF *anticipated, but no ESPN 3B eligibility yet
22/177. Jean Segura, Phillies (986) [198.0]: 2B/3B
28/167. Dylan Moore, Mariners (865) [140.0]: 2B/LF/RF *anticipated, but no ESPN 3B eligibility yet
32/211. Andres Gimenez, Indians (750) [185.0]: SS/2B/3B
35/269. Jeimer Candelario, Tigers (908) [287.0]: 1B/3B
37/262. Ryan McMahon, Rockies (910) [234.0]: 2B/1B/3B
59/478. Yoshi Tsutsugo, Rays (496) [545.0]: LF/3B
As you can see, I'm not crazy about tiers three and four (longshots) for third base. Even this watch list is sparse, and offers very little to be excited about. That all tells me that I should think about targeting the 3B position in the first five rounds this fantasy season, with at least one starting 3B on my roster by round eight (standard 12 team league). Any managers that miss out on those top two tiers in 2021 may be wishing they didn't, and managers that capitalize on the position could hold it for ransom in the trade market.
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