'21 Fantasy Baseball Prep: SS, the Straw that Stirs the Drink
- Michael Obermuller
- Mar 24, 2021
- 8 min read
Updated: Mar 29, 2021
As I mentioned last year, the shortstop position has transitioned back into a power position in recent seasons. As the brute slugger began to disappear from the game a decade or so ago, young hitting talent began to sprout up at short again, making it much more than a "gold glove" position. Now the slugger may be back, but shortstop is also here to stay as a top point-scoring position in fantasy baseball again, and a deep one too. Yes, gone are the days where SS is reserved for defense, but with all these gifted athletes to choose from, you have to make sure you draft the right superstar. What you want is the five-tool stud, the franchise building block, the core contributor... in other words, the straw that stirs the drink.
Format: In 2021 I will be using positional rankings by FantasyPros (as of Mar. 24) as I highlight;
targets- deemed an adequate value at projected rank
sleepers- deemed a plus value at projected rank
avoids- deemed a lower value than projected rank
busts- don't draft, period
Position eligibility is based on ESPN Fantasy. Projected points are based on the point settings of an ESPN fantasy league I have been a part of for 10+ years (below), and do not always correlate with the rankings:
Single- 2, Double- 5, Triple- 15, HR- 10(+RBI/Run),
RBI- 5, Runs- 3, Walk - 2, Stolen Base- 3
(negatives) K's- 2, Caught Stealing- 2, GIDP- 5
*Eligible but non-primary shortstops will be listed at the bottom of this article, and discussed in more detail during their own primary position write-up.
Links to Additional 2021 Fantasy Baseball Articles:
TIER 1
**Player Key- Position Rank/Overall Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points) [ADP]
1/3. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (1409) [2.0]: (AVOID) I'm definitely going to take some heat for this, but after his most recent shoulder injury I'm willing to pass on Tatis at an ADP of No. 2 overall (if I have a top three pick). Of course, I'm talking strictly re-draft leagues. In a dynasty format I'd be all over Tatis based on his sheer potential. Back to the injury, it's become a growing theme for Tatis over his young career, and this position has enough depth to pass on it in the first round.
2/7. Trea Turner, Nationals (1387) [8.0]: (TARGET) Turner finally had that breakout season in 2020, albeit in a shortened campaign. He not only matched Tatis in points, he beat him putting up 11.3 points per game (PPG) and 667 total compared to Tatis' 623 (in my league). Turner's mix of power and speed is rare, and his strikeout numbers are manageable.
3/12. Trevor Story, Rockies (1320) [12.0]: (AVOID) Personally, I've been passing on Story for years now because of his strikeout numbers. Some people don't care about negatives in fantasy, but I try to keep it in mind as much as possible. If you're okay with his propensity for K's, the rest of his game has similarities to Trea Turner, but with more power in a better home stadium.
4/16. Francisco Lindor, Mets (1299) [16.0]: (TARGET) I like to alert readers that I am a Mets fan, but it's hard not to like Lindor on a contract year (assuming NYM doesn't extend him before Opening Day). He's also now a part of a lineup that had the number one ranked team batting average in baseball last season (Cleveland ranked 23rd). If all that isn't enough, Lindor is off to a scorching start in Spring Training, at .342 with four homers and 11 RBI.
5/23. Bo Bichette, Blue Jays (1256) [25.0]: (RISKY/AVOID) Another shortstop that swings a big stick, and one that I loved as a sleeper the last two seasons. This time around I'm less certain. When Bichette is on, he really crushes the ball, but he's also another high-strikeout player that has missed time with injuries and may be due for a slump early in his career. Call it gut instinct, but a lot of Toronto Blue Jays are getting HYPED up the ranks this draft season, and I see a lot of them underperforming in the end.
6/24. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox (1387) [29.0]: (TARGET) You might have guessed it, but Bogaerts is more my kind of fantasy shortstop. I don't need 35 homers from this position, but a guy like Xander that has batted over .300 the past two seasons, rarely misses games, has low K numbers, has power/speed and bats in a good lineup/stadium is more than enough for me.
TIER 2
7/28. Adalberto Mondesi, Royals (910) [27.0]: (BUST) Mondesi has taken up residence as one of the best steals threats in the MLB in recent seasons. He had 24 in 59 games last season! And 43 SB's the year before. Unfortunately, he also had 70 strikeouts over the same span in 2020, and only averaged 6.1 PPG. On the rebuilding Royals, I'm willing to wait on Adalberto's game to improve, it's not quite SS7 value yet.
8/27. Corey Seager, Dodgers (1335) [32.0]: (TARGET/SLEEPER) Seager may actually have plus-value down at an ADP of 32. The former top prospect reminded everyone just how talented he was in 2020, averaging 10.4 PPG with a .307 average. His hard-hit ball and line drive percentages also skyrocketed over the 60-game campaign, leading to a higher home-run percentage. Expect a slight correction, but in this Dodgers' lineup, Seager should really be ranked in the top tier.
9/41. Tim Anderson, White Sox (977) [48.0]: (AVOID) Tim Anderson's rise in notoriety has definitely been fun to watch the past two years, batting .335 and .322 in 2019 and '20, but does that warrant a higher rank than Gleyber Torres (among others)? I was lucky enough to have Anderson last season, and I'm not saying don't draft him (the White Sox lineup is a nice place to be), just don't reach on a player coming off two career seasons.
10/58. Gleyber Torres, Yankees (1054) [60.0]: (SLEEPER) Rough 2020 I know, but in fantasy sports it's often best to BUY LOW, and Gleyber is a major buy-low candidate for me in 2021. I'd draft him over Anderson or Mondesi in a heartbeat, no disrespect, but there's a lot about Torres that is appealing. Firstly, Yankees manager Aaron Boone said his young shortstop was out of shape after the pandemic, which could help explain his career-lows in HR percentage and batting average. He is now back in shape, which yielded a .270-plus, 25 homer 80 RBI (at least) output in the past. He also bats in a top lineup and a hitter-friendly stadium. One positive from 2020, Gleyber's K percentage decreased as his walk percentage increased.
12/59. Javier Baez, Cubs (1092) [77.0]: (TARGET) Javy Baez was TERRIBLE last year, but for a player with his consistent track record, I feel like you have to throw that campaign out. Fact is, playing without fans was weird for certain players, and some guys never adjusted in the short amount of games. This is a fantastic ADP for a player that was second in the MVP voting in 2018, and I'm willing to bet on a bounce-back season.
13/99. Dansby Swanson, Braves (1118) [104.0]: (TARGET) Despite a career season in 2020 (on par with Xander Bogaerts and Tim Anderson in fantasy), Swanson's ADP hasn't really taken too large of a leap. If it had, I would have recommended you avoid him, but at SS13, I don't really have a problem with it. Swanson is a prime age 27 and impressing in Spring.
14/105. Carlos Correa, Astros (1042) [121.0]: (BUST) If you read my 3B article, you might remember that Alex Bregman was one of the Astros I still trusted... well Correa is the opposite. I know I've given other players passes, but in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal I'm very worried that the 4.8 PPG 2020 Correa is the real one, I mean he wasn't all that great in 2018 or '19 either.
15/114. Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (1160) [133.0]: (TARGET) Semien was way overrated last year after his near-MVP season in 2019, but I like him much more at this ADP. Potentially part of a more potent lineup in Toronto, the 30-year old should get back on track in '21.
17/141. Didi Gregorius, Phillies (1197) [158.0]: (SLEEPER) Certain players never seem to get any respect, and Gregorius is one of them. Just the fact that he plays in Philly alone is enough to get him on my personal radar, but last season's numbers help. 8.5 PPG with a low strikeout total of 28 compared to 15 walks. Didi has also slugged over .475 three out of the past four seasons.
TIER 3
20/187. Paul DeJong, Cardinals (903) [234.0]: (TARGET) The Cardinals SS DeJong isn't the perfect player (K's a bit high, career average a bit low), but he's in his prime and he's generally consistent (65-plus RBI per season). At this rank, I can't complain about that.
21/197. Jorge Polanco, Twins (1047) [232.0]: (AVOID) Aside from a breakout campaign during the juiced ball season (2019), Polanco has not been all that reliable in fantasy. Boom or bust type, with higher odds on the latter.
23/202. Andres Gimenez, Indians (750) [182.0]: (2B/3B eligible) (WATCH LIST) Gimenez showed his potential in limited time with the Mets last year, but he's still more of a glove than a bat at this stage in his career. Dynasty option, but in re-drafts I'd wait for now.
27/229. David Fletcher, Angels (927) [208.0]: (2B eligible) (POTENTIAL SLEEPER) Fletcher's on-base percentage and batting average have had an upwards trajectory since he entered the league in 2018. Not an explosive player yet, but if the Angels offense performs this year, Fletcher might actually have some sneaky fantasy value.
28/259. Willi Castro, Tigers (699) [250.0]: (POTENTIAL SLEEPER) The thing about Willi Castro is, he wasn't known for his bat as a prospect. That didn't stop him from raking last season, and hitting .300 again in Spring Training thus far with three HRs and 10 RBI.
30/274. Willy Adames, Rays (667) [347.0]
31/265. Ha-seong Kim, Padres (798) [211.0]: (BUST) The Korean signing had some hype before Spring, but his .125 batting average since is discouraging.
32/278. Elvis Andrus, Athletics (896) [332.0]: (TARGET) The ex-Rangers shortstop has been serviceable most fantasy seasons, if you ignore last year. Assuming you miss out on the top tiers, Andrus is a possible target. He strikes out a bunch, but has pop.
33/299. Amed Rosario, Indians (773) [338.0]
LONGSHOTS
38/330. Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks (961) [385.0]
40/339. Andrelton Simmons, Twins (775) [435.0]
43/387. Jose Iglesias, Angels (702) [448.0]: (AVOID) Nick Ahmed, Andrelton Simmons and Jose Iglesias are all free agent replacements in the event of injury. All three are near identical, glove-first shortstops that have never really excelled in fantasy.
44/373. Miguel Rojas, Marlins (832) [451.0]: (WATCH LIST) Really late possibility if you're desperate. Rojas has aged like a fine wine in Miami, taking his leadership role with the Marlins to heart. If he plays anything like he did the last two years, he's worth fantasy consideration.
47/417. J.P. Crawford, Mariners (894) [508.0]
49/431. Niko Goodrum, Tigers (632) [454.0]: (2B eligible)
53/558. Brandon Crawford, Giants (686) [464.0]: (BUST) At this point in his career, Crawford is not worth rostering.
57/536. Orlando Arcia, Brewers (634) [560.0] 58/449. Freddy Galvis, Orioles (790) [488.0]: (2B eligible) A move to Baltimore could help his bat. Then again, playing in Cincy's hitter-friendly park didn't do much.
WATCH LIST
34/277. Wander Franco, Rays (700) [276.0]: Number one prospect in all of baseball. Enough said. Pick him up if he gets the call to the majors.
52/495. Kevin Newman, Pirates (260) [470.0]: (2B eligible) I actually had really high hopes for Newman last season, but man was I wrong. For now, he's a watch list candidate based on his plus-.300 average in 2019.
56/515. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (300) [336.0]: The Royals top prospect at short will start the season in the minors.
SS Eligible, but not considered shortstops by trade
18/156. Tommy Edman, Cardinals (977) [146.0]: 3B/SS/RF
22/203. Jake Cronenworth, Padres (677) [184.0]: 2B/1B/SS
25/221. Chris Taylor, Dodgers (945) [210.0]: LF/2B/SS
29/254. Jonathan Villar, Mets (491) [190.0]: 2B/SS
36/316. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers (703) [290.0]: 3B/SS
42/379. Joey Wendle, Rays (609) [318.0]: 3B/2B/SS
46/425. Nico Hoerner, Cubs (148) [438.0]: 2B/SS
Shortstop's depth spans the first three tiers, but it sort of dies out after that (very few deep sleepers in the longshots/watch list territory, outside of Wander Franco). My advice is to avoid the high strikeout guys, you'll likely have some of those at other positions already, and you want to target those well-rounded five-tool players at short. Also look for players that are durable, the best shortstops play often, and almost never take time off. If you follow these steps, you'll get yourself a SS that's worthy of constructing your roster around.
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