'21 Fantasy Baseball Prep: 2B, Patience is Key
- Michael Obermuller
- Mar 22, 2021
- 9 min read
Updated: Mar 29, 2021
As we discussed last year, second base has become a deep position in fantasy baseball, largely because of how many players have gained eligibility at it in recent seasons. Not only is it deep, it's balanced, at least more so than most positions. These tiers don't have as much of drop-off in talent as say 1B, or catcher (both linked below). The basic take from those trends is that you should not reach at 2B in the draft, you should wait on it. There are plenty of quality hitters at the position, and that devalues second base's top tier. As the title suggests, patience at 2B may be key if you want to maximize your fantasy baseball draft in 2021. Let's dive in.
Format: In 2021 I will be using positional rankings by FantasyPros (as of Mar. 22) as I highlight;
targets- deemed an adequate value at projected rank
sleepers- deemed a plus value at projected rank
avoids- deemed a lower value than projected rank
busts- don't draft, period
Position eligibility is based on ESPN Fantasy. Projected points are based on the point settings of an ESPN fantasy league I have been a part of for 10+ years (below), and do not always correlate with the rankings:
Single- 2, Double- 5, Triple- 15, HR- 10(+RBI/Run),
RBI- 5, Runs- 3, Walk - 2, Stolen Base- 3
(negatives) K's- 2, Caught Stealing- 2, GIDP- 5
*Eligible but non-primary second basemen will be listed at the bottom of this article, and discussed in more detail during their own primary position write-up.
Links to Additional 2021 Fantasy Baseball Articles:
TIER 1
**Player Key- Position Rank/Overall Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points) [ADP]
1/29. Ozzie Albies, Braves (1312) [35.0]: (AVOID) I was right to avoid Albies last year, and I'm sticking to that plan in 2021 because of this 2B1 rank. Albies is young, part of a top lineup, and diversely talented. He definitely deserves to be in this tier, but he does not deserve to be at the top of it (based on his high strikeout numbers and his inconsistency in fantasy).
2/37. DJ LeMahieu, Yankees (1262) [24.0]: (1B/3B eligible) (TARGET) I'm probably not going to draft LeMahieu, because my plan is to get a second baseman a bit lower, but if I'm ranking the position he's definitely MY 2B1, not Ozzie Albies. The Yankees star has just as good a supporting cast, more eligibility, accrues less negatives, and has a better track record to rely on (I mean they didn't start calling him "LeMachine" for no reason). The public agrees with me so far, as DJ's ADP is almost 10 picks higher than Albies'.
3/44. Whit Merrifield, Royals (1192) [42.0]: (CF/RF/OF eligible) (TARGET) I know I said not to necessarily target tier one for this position, but there are still players in this tier that I really like. Merrifield is one of them. He has IF/OF eligibility which I love, plus he's the type of ball-player that quietly stacks fantasy points. High-average hitter, steal bases, more pop than you think, rarely gets negatives. In 2020, that yielded 8.2 points per game (PPG).
4/67. Keston Hiura, Brewers (979) [66.0]: (BUST) I was a big fan of Hiura last season, but man did he turn out to be a catastrophic bust (luckily didn't draft him in any leagues, but apologies to those that did). 85 strikeouts in 59 games!! Coupled with a .212 average and 4.9 PPG. The Brewers 24-year old is an all-or-nothing slugger, something I'd rather stay clear of at 2B.
5/69. Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (1248) [74.0]: (AVOID) I do like Ketel Marte as a player, but the depth of this position paired with the fact that he lost OF eligibility are causing me to sour on the D-Backs' 2019 All-Star.
6/75. Brandon Lowe, Rays (1224) [65.0]: (RF/OF eligible) (TARGET) If I'm jumping on any second baseman in this tier, Lowe is the guy I really want. If you look at his advanced batting metrics from 2019-20, there isn't a single negative trend. Home run percentage is up, so is walk percentage, strikeout percentage is down, hard-hit ball and line drive percentage are well above league average. Lowe will be 26 this season, a prime age for MLB players. IF/OF eligibility also.
7/79. Jose Altuve, Astros (1030) [89.0]: (AVOID) Not going to lie, despite listing Altuve as a player to avoid last season, I ended up drafting him when he plummeted in the ranks. I figured at a value of three or four rounds lower than his rank, how could I pass him up? Turns out I should of, as he churned out the worst season of his career (5.6 PPG). Whether it was injury or inefficiency, Altuve was hard to roster in 2020. I assume he'll bounce back slightly in 2021, but you have to wonder if the fallout of the sign-stealing scandal is impacting him more than most.
8/89. Cavan Biggio, Blue Jays (1161) [60.0]: (3B/RF/OF eligible) (AVOID) Let me clarify, I had Biggio as a "sleeper" in 2020 and he posted a solid 7.8 PPG. I still like him in 2021, the problem is that everyone else does too. His ADP is currently at 60.0, above Lowe and most of this 2B class. I would AVOID drafting him that high, as I feel his hype has become over-inflated. Biggio at 89 (target), Biggio at 60 (avoid).
9/94. Jeff McNeil, Mets (1155) [101.0]: (LF/OF eligible) (TARGET) I'd actually prefer McNeil over Cavan Biggio in 2021, and not just because I'm a Mets fan. McNeil was Biggio in 2020, totally overhyped, and I recommended managers avoid the Mets utility player for a year because the hype was too high. Now I feel McNeil could be a bargain in 2021 at a lower ADP. Even in a lousy campaign, McNeil walked 20 times compared to just 24 K's last season.
TIER 2
11/109. Mike Moustakas, Reds (1054) [117.0]: (1B eligible) (AVOID) After 35 HRs during 2019's juiced ball season, Moustakas was due for a let-down in 2020. He had one, with only 6.2 PPG and a .230 batting average. Now on the wrong side of 30, I wonder if we should be fading the Moose for some of these higher upside kids.
14/167. Dylan Moore, Mariners (865) [140.0]: (LF/RF/OF eligible) (RISKY/BUST) The Jeff McNeil of Seattle, Moore is a 28-year old utility-man who made a name for himself in 2020. This one could really go either way, and part of me wants to label this a BUST waiting to happen with the way his ADP has skyrocketed over the last week, but he's having a decent Spring.
15/178. Jean Segura, Phillies (986) [198.0]: (3B eligible)
16/188. Nick Solak, Rangers (978) [182.0]: (LF/CF/OF eligible) (SLEEPER) Solak had a rough 2020 campaign, but he's currently batting .303 in Spring Training with three homers and eight RBI. Strikeout numbers have been high, but based on his potential at 2B16 as an IF/OF eligible player, I'm ready to invest in Solak. One ticket for the hype train please, all aboard!
17/183. Nick Madrigal, White Sox (927) [184.0]: (SLEEPER) Another young sleeper option is 24-year old Nick Madrigal, yet another White Sox prospect bursting onto the scene. In his first 103 MLB at bats last season, the second baseman batted .340 with four walks compared to seven strikeouts. In Spring, he has one strikeout in 14 at bats. Madrigal is no slugger, but he's in a fantastic lineup, and he shouldn't get many negatives (Whit Merrifield is my comparable pro).
18/198. Jake Cronenworth, Padres (677) [183.0]: (1B/SS eligible) (AVOID) Cronenworth has many similarities to Dylan Moore, only the Padres version of a "Ben Zobrist" almost won the rookie of the year in 2020. The main question will be how often he plays in a stacked San Diego lineup, because the nomad generally hits when he's out there. I like the alternatives at this rank more than I like a super-utility man.
22/211. Gavin Lux, Dodgers (973) [229.0]: (RISKY SLEEPER) It's hard to have faith in Lux after 2020, but I still do and I rode out his entire lackluster pandemic campaign in one league last year (still finished third despite the wasted roster spot). My point is I've been burned worse than most, but the potential is still so great. The situation has improved mildly in LA. Kike Hernandez is gone (the main player stealing starts from Lux one year ago), but Chris Taylor and prospect Edwin Rios are still lurking. Manager Dave Roberts claimed that Lux will be an everyday player in 2021, but one slump could change that. Of course, one Dodgers injury could do the opposite.
24/231. Kolten Wong, Brewers (932) [251.0]
TIER 3
28/252. Jonathan Villar, Mets (491) [190.0]: (SS eligible) (WATCH LIST) An early watch list candidate is Villar. He was a tier one (ranked) 2B in 2020, but should start this season as a super sub/pinch hitter for the Mets. The vet's best chance at starting is actually beating out J.D. Davis at third, but his camp numbers haven't been good enough to prompt a change. Don't draft as of now.
30/275. Garrett Hampson, Rockies (715) [286.0]: (CF/OF eligible) (BUST) Hampson has batted for high average in Spring, but he has yet to display any fantasy impact in his game. He averaged a putrid 4.1 PPG last season. Brendan Rodgers should replace him soon.
31/296. Tommy La Stella, Giants (886) [314.0]: (1B eligible) (SLEEPER) I know it was a weird year, but La Stella actually mustered up the fifth most fantasy points at 2B in 2020, with an average of 8.0 per game. The journeyman may be one of the only players in baseball to walk more than he struck out last season (and it wasn't even close). He should gain 3B eligibility.
33/294. Jon Berti, Marlins (579) [281.0]: (CF/OF eligible)
34/315. Cesar Hernandez, Indians (961) [317.0]: (AVOID) Fantasy value depreciated in Cleveland, compared to Philadelphia, last season.
36/319. Starlin Castro, Nationals (767) [333.0]: (SLEEPER) Castro broke his wrist last year, but before that he was averaging 6.2 PPG in fantasy. The former top prospect has bounced around the league and never really gotten a fair shake, but he has generally produced in spite of that. 2B36 is an outrageously low rank for such a steady player who is also locked in as a Nats starter.
37/310. Jurickson Profar, Padres (770) [311.0]: (LF/OF eligible)
38/340. Jonathan Schoop, Tigers (772) [334.0]: (TARGET/WATCH LIST) I would prefer Starlin Castro, but another surprisingly low rank for a consistent starter/hitter (6.4 PPG in 2020).
LONGSHOTS
43/354. Scott Kingery, Phillies (563) [354.0]
44/392. Rougned Odor, Rangers (747) [425.0]: (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) At the very least Odor is someone like Schoop that you can sign as an injury band-aid or a streaky streamer. These guys are not sleepers in the true sense of the word, but they do have some fantasy value this low.
46/383. Kike Hernandez, Red Sox (781) [351.0]: (RF/OF eligible) (AVOID) Great real-life asset, below average fantasy performer.
48/400. Wilmer Flores, Giants (776) [380.0]: (1B eligible)
52/462. Adam Frazier, Pirates (901) [448.0]: (LF eligible)
63/609. Isan Diaz, Marlins (134) [697.0]: (AVOID) Should win the starting 2B job over Jazz Chisholm and Jon Berti, but may not get consistent playing time in 2021.
68/713. Nicky Lopez, Royals (576) [534.0]
WATCH LIST
35/307. Ty France, Mariners (673) [292.0]: (SLEEPER) Ty France is RAKING in Spring Training batting .417 with five longballs and 10 RBI. His OPS is 1.404! His ADP has been surging of late because of these numbers, but he may not have an everyday role in this lineup to start the year. Definitely a candidate to draft and stash in deeper leagues.
39/349. Luis Arraez, Twins (554) [347.0]: One of the best contact hitters in the game, but until he displays more fantasy potential his skills don't exactly translate just yet.
41/398. Brendan Rodgers, Rockies (547) [401.0]: Was having a good Spring before straining his hamstring. He'll be out a month, but may be worth picking up when healthy.
45/436. Nico Hoerner, Cubs (148) [441.0]: (SS eligible) Hoerner is batting .321 in Spring Training, but let's wait and see if his game transfers to the majors this time around.
47/415. Donovan Solano, Giants (492) [407.0]: Projected to start at 2B in San Francisco.
55/448. Josh Rojas, Diamondbacks (293) [513.0]: An impressive Spring has boosted his rank.
57/434. Luis Garcia, Nationals (551) [500.0]: Will start 2021 in AAA. Garcia's fate is more tied to Carter Kieboom than Starlin Castro (as Castro could shift to third in the event of a call-up).
58/488. Hanser Alberto, Royals (122) [468.0]: Hit for Baltimore a year ago, but it's unclear if he'll make the roster in Kansas City.
2B Eligible, but not considered second basemen by trade
10/101. Max Muncy, Dodgers (1191) [98.0]: 1B/2B/3B
19/168. Tommy Edman, Cardinals (977) [148.0]: 3B/SS/RF *anticipated, but no ESPN 2B eligibility yet
20/225. Chris Taylor, Dodgers (945) [213.0]: LF/2B/SS
23/214. Andres Gimenez, Indians (750) [185.0]: SS/2B/3B
25/237. David Fletcher, Angels (927) [210.0]: SS/2B
26/257. Ryan McMahon, Rockies (910) [234.0]: (1B/3B eligible)
32/270. Ha-seong Kim, Padres (798) [207.0]: SS *anticipated, but no ESPN 2B eligibility yet
42/386. Joey Wendle, Rays (609) [321.0]: 3B/2B/SS
50/423. Niko Goodrum, Tigers (632) [452.0]: SS/2B
51/451. Luis Urias, Brewers (642) [517.0]: 3B/2B
54/623. Kevin Newman, Pirates (260) [549.0]: SS/2B
59/492. Freddy Galvis, Orioles (790) [554.0]: SS/2B
60/564. Marwin Gonzalez, Red Sox (294) [414.0]: 3B/1B/2B
As you can see, second base not only has a wider tier one than the average position, but it also has a juicy tier two and multiple later options in tier three and beyond should you elect to go with a cheaper selection. The eligibility depth did take a minor hit since 2020, but this is still an area that I'm in no rush to spend a top pick on. Draw up your sleeper lists, queue them up before the draft, and enjoy yourself knowing you're a leg up on the competition in 2021.
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