'21 Fantasy Baseball Prep: SP, Diving for Sleepers
- Michael Obermuller
- Mar 29, 2021
- 13 min read
Sorry that the final part of my 2021 fantasy baseball draft prep is coming a bit later than I had hoped, but for those with late drafts like myself I still got you covered! The starting pitcher position is definitely somewhat polarizing. Some managers swear by pitchers and draft them early. Others think that they can get sleeper pitching late, and stack their lineup in the opening rounds. Most people probably do some mix of the two. I'll admit, I lean more towards drafting starting pitching later on, but I do like to secure one premier ACE somewhere in the first three rounds. From that point on, I draft hitting with the occasional starter or reliever mixed in at spots where I feel the price is right. I never reach on pitching, because there are so many sleepers at the position if you do the research. I won't go as in depth with this final deep dive, being that most people have drafted by now, but instead I'll point out pitchers that fit the value that I'm targeting.
Format: In 2021 I will be using positional rankings by FantasyPros (as of Mar. 29) as I highlight;
targets- deemed an adequate value at projected rank
sleepers- deemed a plus value at projected rank
avoids- deemed a lower value than projected rank
busts- don't draft, period
Position eligibility is based on ESPN Fantasy. Projected points are based on the point settings of an ESPN fantasy league I have been a part of for 10+ years (below), and do not always correlate with the rankings. Personally I prefer less add-on bonuses for great outings, but we'll roll with these settings for projected 2021 point totals:
Inning Pitched- 3, Strikeout- 2, Quality Start- 5, Win- 10, Save- 10, Hold- 5
(BONUSES) Complete Game- 5, Shutout- 10, No Hitter- 15, Perfect Game- 20
(NEGATIVE) Hit- 1, (E)Run- 2, Walk- 1, HBP- 1, Wild Pitch- 1, Loss- 5, Blown Save- 5
*Eligible but non-primary starting pitchers will be listed at the bottom of this article, and discussed in more detail during their own primary position write-up.
Links to Additional 2021 Fantasy Baseball Articles:
TIER 1
**Key- Position Rank/Overall Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points) [ADP]
1/6. Jacob deGrom, Mets (1076) [6.0]: (ACE) I actually just drafted deGrom last night at No. 7 overall. He's one of the only starters I would ever take in the first round, due to his consistency and rock-solid track record. Perennial Cy Young candidate.
2/8. Gerrit Cole, Yankees (1083) [7.0]: (ACE) Cole Train is also worthy of a first round pick, somewhere around pick 7-10. I'm still going deGrom over Cole because I know exactly what I'm going to get from Jake, but Gerrit does have the higher ceiling on the Yankees with a dominant strikeout per nine in recent years. A near toss up as the first SP off the board.
3/10. Shane Bieber, Indians (953) [9.0]: (AVOID) I wouldn't go Bieber in the first round. If he drops out of it, I might consider him. Keep in mind Bieber only faced a weak AL and NL Central last season, two of the most fortuitous divisions for opposing pitchers.
4/17. Yu Darvish, Padres (920) [17.0]: (BUST) Way too high for Darvish coming off a career campaign. The veteran was nasty in 12 starts last year, but it was only 12 starts. He's had too many injuries and inconsistent seasons to trust him at this ADP.
5/19. Trevor Bauer, Dodgers (971) [14.0]: (BUST) With all the hype over the free agency period, I was dead-set on avoiding Bauer this season for a mix of the same reasons as Shane Bieber and Yu Darvish, except Bauer is the worst of the three. One, he only pitched against the Central divisions in 2020. Two, it was a contract year for a player obsessed with his brand and his salary. Three, Bauer's career ERA is only 3.90 and he's constantly getting into off-the-field drama with fans. LAD was a great landing spot for him, but I'm still not drafting him in round two.
6/20. Lucas Giolito, White Sox (905) [19.0]: (TARGET) Remember, I only go with one SP in the first three rounds so if I drafted one already I'm passing on these later options. If not, Giolito is an target candidate. The 26-year old seems to have found his stuff since heading to Chicago, and his ADP is a little kinder than the three players above him. The White Sox should win a lot of games this season, and their ace had a K/9 above 12 last season.
7/21. Walker Buehler, Dodgers (817) [20.0]: (TARGET) I also like Buehler as a possible lower ace to look at (and I would definitely prefer him over teammate Trevor Bauer). He's 26 as well, and his numbers have been some of the more stable in the league the past three seasons.
8/22. Aaron Nola, Phillies (952) [22.0]: (AVOID) Nola was a sleeper bet for me last year, when his value was at an all-time low. The bet paid off, but now Nola has a premier rank again. Philly pitching is better off avoided as a general rule of thumb, especially at a cost like this (22.0 ADP).
9/24. Max Scherzer, Nationals (876) [23.0]: (TARGET) Mad Max Scherzer is a faithful arm when it comes to fantasy. He strikes out batters, eats up innings, and generally pitches to a low-3 ERA.
TIER 2
10/29. Luis Castillo, Reds (849) [26.0]: (AVOID) I've always been a fan of Castillo's, and last year he finally had that season that I expected of him for some time. 3.21 ERA, 11.4 K/9, but yet only four wins in 12 starts. The Reds have gotten worse again this offseason, I'd rather go with a hitter here than chance a pick on Castillo.
11/30. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (779) [30.0]: (AVOID) Kershaw was tremendous last season in 10 starts, but he is getting older (which has come with more nagging injuries). I don't hate him at this ADP, but I'll probably still stay clear, especially since he has a 10.22 ERA in Spring.
12/33. Jack Flaherty, Cardinals (768) [31.0]: (TARGET) Flaherty was overrated headed into 2020, but a sub-par season has corrected that. He should rebound a bit in 2021.
13/39. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers (789) [38.0]: (TARGET) Since transitioning over to the Brewers No. 1 starter, Woody's game has been flawless the last couple seasons.
14/46. Blake Snell, Padres (724) [43.0]: (SLEEPER) San Diego's large park could help elevate Snell's game back to Cy Young level, and he should win plenty of games with the Padres.
15/50. Tyler Glasnow, Rays (755) [50.0]: (AVOID) Tremendous talent, but there's just too much risk that comes with drafting a pitcher with his injury history this high. 16/51. Kenta Maeda, Twins (778) [45.0]: (BUST) Maeda is no ace, and his rank is totally overblown after 2020's shortened season. Career K/9 just under 10.
17/53. Lance Lynn, White Sox (794) [52.0]: (TARGET) Lynn has proven his durability and consistency throughout his career. The 2021 White Sox may be the most talented roster he's ever pitched for. The results may be mutually beneficial.
18/64. Corbin Burnes, Brewers (763) [59.0]: (RISKY) Big-time strikeout pitcher that has had an ERA in the 2's twice, and then an ERA over 8.80 the season in between. Careful.
19/66. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (679) [62.0]: (AVOID) The former World Series MVP has been getting crushed since returning from his calf and lower leg injuries. He doesn't seem 100 percent right now.
20/69. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Blue Jays (727) [65.0]: (TARGET) Not going to strike a ton of batters out, but Ryu followed up on his near Cy Young 2019 with a spectacular 2020 (and in a tough Eastern region). Toronto has an up-and-coming roster, which should get Ryu some wins.
21/76. Kyle Hendricks, Cubs (775) [77.0] (TARGET) The career-Cub has been quietly reliable for Chicago since his 2014 rookie season. Last year was his best since 2016. Low strikeout numbers, but still a stable arm at this ADP.
22/84. Jose Berrios, Twins (750) [75.0]: (SLEEPER) Berrios has let me down in the past, but I still feel his talent far exceeds his draft status every season. Minnesota's ace that I'm trusting is this man, not Kenta Maeda.
23/86. Sonny Gray, Reds (754) [78.0]: (SLEEPER) So long as he's not pitching in New York, Sonny Gray always puts up sleeper-type fantasy numbers. The last two seasons in Cincinnati he has had a 2.87 and 3.70 ERA with 16 wins and 11 losses (K/9 around 11). Not perfect, but solid for this ADP.
24/88. Max Fried, Braves (696) [73.0]: (TARGET) I don't see Fried as the most dominant or lethal fantasy pitcher, but he's on a team that wins a lot, and he generally pitches to a low ERA.
25/89. Zack Greinke, Astros (700) [96.0]: (AVOID) Hard to believe that Greinke is 37 years old, but he is. Houston is on the decline, and so is their new-ish ace.
26/91. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (715) [88.0]: (AVOID) I had Wheeler tagged as a bust last season, and he shut me up pitching to a 2.92 ERA in Philly. The weird part was his K/9, which dropped to a very low 6.7. I still think there are a lot more things that could go wrong for Wheeler in Philadelphia than right, and the strikeout totals don't help convince me to draft him.
TIER 3
LIGHTNING ROUNDS
27/95. Charlie Morton, Braves (645) [110.0]: (TARGET) Up near 40 in age, but Morton's stuff never relied on youth. I think Atlanta was the perfect destination for his "sunset campaign."
28/100. Jesus Luzardo, Athletics (601) [105.0]: (TARGET) Didn't quite reach expectations in 2020, but still only 23 years old. Always willing to bet on young talent.
29/102. Chris Paddack, Padres (667) [98.0]: (SLEEPER) Similar to Jesus Luzardo, it's hard not to bet on Paddack at this ADP. He was a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2019, and the Padres look top-notch on paper.
30/101. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks (665) [60.0]: (AVOID) Fracture in his pitching arm has dropped him in the ranks. Some people are keen on stashing Gallen (a player I once loved as a sleeper when he first came up with Miami), but this type of injury scares me. There could be lingering effects.
31/104. Zach Plesac, Indians (656) [74.0]: (RISKY) So much potential, but his poor attitude comes with risk during a pandemic (broken protocols could mean missed time).
32/105. Ian Anderson, Braves (629) [92.0]: (AVOID) Phenomenal rookie season of six starts, but can he do it for an entire year? 5.17 ERA in Spring worries me. Good 'K' numbers when he's on.
33/112. Joe Musgrove, Padres (590) [127.0]: (BUST) Musgrove isn't that great of a pitcher, I feel like his rank is only this high because he's on the Padres.
34/113. Dinelson Lamet, Padres (725) [103.0]: (TARGET) Still recovering from his plasma injection in his arm late last season, but I'd rather go Lamet than Joe Musgrove here.
35/115. Lance McCullers Jr., Astros (499) [126.0]: (TARGET) Looked good in 2020, if he stays healthy he should be a fine starter for the Stros.
36/120. Dylan Bundy, Angels (717) [113.0]
37/130. Patrick Corbin, Nationals (759) [123.0]: (SLEEPER) I believe Corbin's 2018 and '19 numbers are far more indicative on his fantasy potential than 2020.
38/129. Kevin Gausman, Giants (587) [137.0]
39/134. Sixto Sanchez, Marlins (530) [132.0]: (AVOID) I know everyone is ready to deem Sixto as a 2021 sleeper, but Miami has already said that they'll likely limit his innings this season.
40/133. Pablo Lopez, Marlins (559) [140.0]
41/137. Julio Urias, Dodgers (561) [119.0]: (SLEEPER) Urias is finally coming into his own as a starting pitcher at age 24. Now that he's officially been named the fourth starter, fantasy managers can reap the rewards on a Dodgers team that wins a ton.
42/143. Frankie Montas, Athletics (569) [164.0]
43/153. Carlos Carrasco, Mets (620) [94.0]: (OUT) Carrasco tore his hamstring on March 18, with a 6-8 week timetable for return.
44/147. Sandy Alcantara, Marlins (555) [134.0]
45/161. German Marquez, Rockies (748) [171.0]
46/167. Corey Kluber, Yankees (523) [146.0]: (RISKY/AVOID) This could be a sleeper pickup by the Yankees, but with the way their injury luck has been in recent years I'm staying far away.
47/165. Marco Gonzales, Mariners (631) [161.0]
48/171. Mike Soroka, Braves (440) [166.0]: (STASH SLEEPER) Soroka's return from a torn Achilles has gone well so far. He is scheduled to pitch in a Spring Training game tmrw (Tuesday), but could rejoin the Braves rotation as soon as late April.
49/173. Marcus Stroman, Mets (542) [198.0]
50/170. Tyler Mahle, Reds (533) [174.0]
51/172. David Price, Dodgers (458) [169.0]: (WATCH LIST) Unclear if Price will make the Dodgers rotation as their fifth starter after he took the season off in 2020.
52/154. Shohei Ohtani, Angels (913) [162.0]: (BUST) This dual-position experiment just has not worked in fantasy. I'll admit, I've been against it since the beginning, but bias aside I've been right. Ohtani gets so many days off when he's healthy, and when he's not he's a total bust. Never comes close to his projections. Avoid this gimmick at all costs.
53/179. James Paxton, Mariners (613) [208.0]: (TARGET) Perhaps the move back to the more low-key Seattle can help The Big Maple get back on track.
54/174. Aaron Civale, Indians (638) [185.0]: (TARGET) Underrated consistent arm at this ADP.
55/182. Andrew Heaney, Angels (613) [193.0]
56/178. Triston McKenzie, Indians (431) [177.0]: (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) McKenzie impressed in six starts last season and the potential is certainly there, but his Spring has been rough (6.98 ERA).
57/185. Chris Bassitt, Athletics (517) [187.0]: No real opinion, but wanted to note that Bassitt pitched into Cy Young contention in 2020 (with little buzz surrounding him in Oakland). Not a strikeout pitcher, but has held a sturdy ERA since his return in 2018.
58/192. Jose Urquidy, Astros (537) [189.0]: (BUST) Urquidy doesn't strike out batters, and his stuff isn't good enough to make a difference in fantasy without the K's.
59/193. Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox (486) [197.0]: (RISKY) Rodriguez has been working his way back from dead arm. Reliable starter when healthy, but will he be?
60/191. Zach Eflin, Phillies (673) [184.0]
TIER 4
61/197. John Means, Orioles (479) [223.0]
62/204. Jameson Taillon, Yankees (386) [190.0]: (SLEEPER) I think Taillon is totally worth a flier at this draft status. The rejuvenation project serves a much better chance in the Bronx.
63/214. Dallas Keuchel, White Sox (567) [170.0]: (SLEEPER) If you're looking for a candidate for Quality Starts and Wins, Keuchel may just be your guy at a premium ADP.
64/212. Michael Pineda, Twins (481) [218.0]
65/230. Dustin May, Dodgers (360) [205.0]: (WATCH LIST) Unlikely to make starting rotation.
66/222. Sean Manaea, Athletics (541) [229.0]
67/216. Jordan Montgomery, Yankees (536) [235.0]
68/227. Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers (333) [243.0]: (AVOID) Even if Gonsolin wins the fifth starter job in LA, I'm not sure how long he'll hold it with so many other contenders on the roster.
69/245. Ryan Yarbrough, Rays (483) [254.0]
70/244. Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox (430) [242.0]
71/229. Elieser Hernandez, Marlins (518) [250.0]: (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) If he can pitch like he did in 2020, and not 2018 and '19, the 26 year old Marlin could be worth rostering.
72/233. Brady Singer, Royals (450) [266.0]: (WATCH LIST) Former top prospect, but hasn't had enough success striking batters out to be a big-time fantasy factor.
73/238. Jake Odorizzi, Astros (531) [275.0]
74/236. Cristian Javier, Astros (498) [207.0]: (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) Javier has had a nice Spring following an intriguing 2020 debut, He's battling for starts in a crowded Astros rotation right now, but Javier definitely seems to have more talent than most of the others in this group.
76/251. Griffin Canning, Angels (509) [357.0]
78/269. Framber Valdez, Astros (209) [179.0]: (AVOID) Injury has caused him to be the odd man out in the Houston rotation as of now.
79/295. Domingo German, Yankees (420) [232.0]: (SLEEPER) German has been tearing up Spring Training since rejoining the team from his suspension. No runs allowed and 13 strikeouts in nine innings of work.
81/280. Matt Boyd, Tigers (598) [279.0]
83/261. Zach Davies, Cubs (481) [255.0]
84/297. Dane Dunning, Rangers (350) [363.0]
85/307. Tarik Skubal, Tigers (450) [299.0]: (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) After a very successful Spring, Skubal has made the Detroit rotation as the No. 3 starter.
87/289. Taijuan Walker, Mets (416) [276.0]: (TARGET) Walker is worth a really low flier on a Mets team that scores runs. He was one of the most positive bounce-back stories in 2020, and is currently locked into the NYM rotation. In a 14-team draft last night, he surprisingly went unpicked.
90/287. Mike Minor, Royals (575) [307.0]
91/290. Justus Sheffield, Mariners (399) [359.0]: (WATCH LIST) Has not quite lived up to his prospect status yet, but Sheffield is worth monitoring.
95/321. Robbie Ray, Blue Jays (539) [285.0]
100/376. Rich Hill, Rays (334) [388.0]
103/338. Madison Bumgarner, Diamondbacks (396) [289.0]: It's amazing how far Mad-Bum has fallen in one season. Could be worth a last round flier, but the results have been monstrously bad since moving to Arizona.
104/352. Caleb Smith, Diamondbacks (606) [327.0]
105/356. Dylan Cease, White Sox (384) [365.0]: (SLEEPER) Definitely sleeper potential from Cease at this ADP. The former top prospect is coming off an improved campaign and an awesome Spring (0.77 ERA through 11.2 innings).
106/327. Tejay Antone, Reds (190) [306.0]: (RP eligible)
113/378. Adbert Alzolay, Cubs (327) [488.0]: (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) Alzolay bumped his K/9 up to 12.2 in 2020, and his ERA down to 2.95.
114/385. Casey Mize, Tigers (322) [385.0]: (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) The former number 1 pick in 2018 has made the rotation as the Tigers fifth starter.
117/416. Ross Stripling, Blue Jays (368) [514.0]
119/388. Chris Archer, Rays (289) [384.0]: (WATCH LIST) Can Archer reboot his career back in Tampa Bay?
121/538. Jon Gray, Rockies (519) [463.0]
122/405. Jose Quintana, Angels (408) [392.0]
123/398. Garrett Richards, Red Sox (478) [490.0]: Richards' debut with Boston may be delayed due to a Covid-19 outbreak on the team.
130/456. David Peterson, Mets (366) [491.0]: (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) Until Carrasco comes back, Peterson will have a spot on the big league roster. He was trustworthy during his rookie season, the only question is whether or not he'll hold onto his job long-term.
137/451. Adrian Houser, Brewers (489) [517.0]
145/443. Adrian Morejon, Padres (251) [535.0]: (WATCH LIST) Padres fifth starter to begin the season, career K/9 of 11.2.
LONGSHOTS
Chris Sale, Red Sox: Recovering from Tommy John, expected return mid-season.
Noah Syndergaard, Mets: Recovering from Tommy John, expected return mid-season.
Luis Severino, Yankees: Recovering from Tommy John, expected return mid-season.
Kwang-Hyun Kim, Cardinals: May miss Opening Day with back injury. Low strikeout numbers give him very little fantasy value.
MacKenzie Gore, Padres: (WATCH LIST) Still in the minors for now, San Diego also has much less room for Gore after all the veteran acquisitions they have made in their rotation.
Deivi Garcia, Yankees: (WATCH LIST) Garcia is back in the minors for now, but could hold value if he returns to the bigs this season.
Michael Kopech, White Sox: (WATCH LIST) The ChiSox have too much depth to start the season, so the prospect Kopech will continue to work back from injury and his opt-out in the minors.
Nate Pearson, Blue Jays: (WATCH LIST) Recovering from groin injury, should start season in minors.
Miles Mikolas, Cardinals: Recovering from shoulder soreness, expected return mid-season.
Mike Fiers, Athletics: Out with hip/back issues, could be back late-April or early May.
Kyle Freeland, Rockies: Out with shoulder injury, expected return mid-season.
OUT
Mike Clevinger, Padres: Out with Tommy John.
Justin Verlander, Astros: Out with Tommy John.
Yonny Chirinos, Rays: Out with Tommy John. Dakota Hudson, Cardinals: Out with Tommy John.
As you can see, there is a ton of SP sleeper potential in Tiers 3 and 4, and generally speaking, more young hurlers reveal themselves as injuries occur and the season goes along. With these factors in mind, I'd always rather stack up my everyday hitters and worry about pitching depth later. It's a gamble for sure, and sometimes you do get burned, but in fantasy you're are always going to have to sacrifice top-draft value somewhere. After nailing down my one ace that I really trust, I tend to sacrifice pitching depth because I'm confident in my ability to find reliable arms throughout the season. If you feel you're more confident in your ability to find hitters, everyone is different. Either way, don't forget to keep an eye on prospects that may get called up mid-season as well. This happens every year in fantasy, especially with young pitching prospects. Utilize your watch list and check it frequently. Simple dedications like this are often the difference between winners and losers over the course of a long fantasy baseball season.
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