MLB AL Central Preview: Dueling Powers
- Michael Obermuller
- Apr 1, 2021
- 6 min read
Two teams have ran the American League Central since the Kansas City Royals World Series campaign in 2015 (which was their only AL Central title), the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins. The Indians won their 10th division title in 2018, but have been on the decline since, while the Twins have been the champs the past two seasons (eighth title in 2020). This year, a new contender is set to emerge, the Chicago White Sox, last seen hoisting their third AL Central banner in 2008. That leaves the Detroit Tigers, who have not won since taking their first four titles from 2011-14. By the odds, it's expected to be a two-team race in the AL Central again in 2021, this time between the defending champion Twins, and the rejuvenated ChiSox franchise.
As always, I'll dive into each MLB division, going over the major off-season moves for each team, my prediction for their over/under win total on FanDuel Sportsbook, and my personal picks for 2021 division winners and wildcards.
Other Divisional Previews: NL West, NL Central, NL East, AL West, AL East
2021 AL Central Off-Season Moves & Predictions
5. Detroit Tigers (manager: A.J. Hinch)
2020 Record: 23-35, 5th in Central
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 67.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Nomar Mazara (RF/DH), Wilson Ramos (C), Robbie Grossman (LF/RF), Renato Nunez (1B/3B), Dustin Garneau (C)
Notable Pitching Additions- Julio Teheran (SP), Jose Urena (SP), Derek Holland (SP/RP), Erasmo Ramirez (RP), Wily Peralta (RP), Ian Krol (RP), Robbie Ross (RP/SP)
Notable Re-Signings- Jonathan Schoop (2B)
Notable Hitting Losses- C.J. Cron (1B), Austin Romine (C), Travis Demeritte (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Jordan Zimmerman (SP), Ivan Nova (SP), Tyson Ross (SP)
The Tigers never-ending rebuild will — pause for dramatic effect — continue in 2021. The moves from Detroit don't really make much sense. In part, they tossing prospects like SP's Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal into sink or swim situations when they don't seem ready for them. Then at the same time, all they did over the off-season was bring in veteran journeymen with very little future on this roster. For example, why not just go all-in with the youth in the starting rotation and see what happens? Meaning put Michael Fulmer in there, and Spencer Turnbull once he returns. Why bother with signing the washed up Julio Teheran, or Jose Urena? What's the use of bringing in Wilson Ramos to play catcher approaching age 34, or Grossman to play the outfield at age 31? Willi Castro, Victor Reyes and Nomar Mazara are the rare spry bats in this aged lineup. From an outside perspective, Renato Nunez making the roster would have been much more exciting. At least he has upside in his mid-twenties. This bullpen is also one of the worst I've seen on paper this preseason, and governing over it all is A.J. Hinch. A spurned manager looking for a second chance after his part in the sign-stealing scandal.
OFFSEASON GRADE: C+
O/U PREDICTION: Under 67.5
4. Kansas City Royals (manager: Mike Matheny)
2020 Record: 26-34, 4th in Central
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 74.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Andrew Benintendi (OF), Carlos Santana (1B), Hanser Alberto (IF), Jarrod Dyson (CF), Michael Taylor (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Mike Minor (SP), Wade Davis (RP), Brad Brach (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Greg Holland (CL)
Notable Hitting Losses- Franchy Cordero (CF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Mike Montgomery (RP/SP), Kevin McCarthy (RP), Ian Kennedy (RP), Matt Harvey (SP), Glenn Sparkman (RP/SP)
Kansas City has done a much better job with their reconstruction than Detroit, but it's still a work in progress all the same. The main acquisition this off-season for the Royals was outfielder Andrew Benintendi, who had worn out his welcome in Boston after a few unproductive campaigns. It was a buy-low upside move for KC, the type of moves that rebuilding teams should take a chance on (take some notes, Tigers). Another similar flier with potential was the Hanser Alberto signing. The infielder did nothing but hit for Baltimore, and he worked his way onto the Opening Day roster after only getting offered a minor league deal this Winter. Mike Minor also joins the staff as a bridge starting pitcher, and Greg Holland returns to close. Overall, it was a mildly positive off-season for the Royals, but I'm not sure they'll hit this slightly high projection of 74.5.
OFFSEASON GRADE: B -
O/U PREDICTION: Under 74.5
3. Cleveland Indians (manager: Terry Francona)
2020 Record: 35-25, T-2nd in Central
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 81.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Eddie Rosario (LF), Andres Gimenez (SS), Amed Rosario (SS), Ben Gamel (OF), Harold Ramirez (OF), Ryan Lavarnway (C)
Notable Pitching Additions- Bryan Shaw (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Cesar Hernandez (2B), Roberto Perez (C), Oliver Perez (RP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Francisco Lindor (SS), Carlos Santana (1B), Tyler Naquin (OF), Sandy Leon (C), Delino DeShields Jr. (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Brad Hand (CL), Carlos Carrasco (SP), Adam Cimber (RP), Hunter Wood (RP), Dominic Leone (RP), Jefry Rodriguez (SP/RP)
This Winter definitely marked the end of an era in Cleveland. Francisco Lindor has been shipped off to New York, and his heir apparent returns in his place (Andres Gimenez). The Indians also got Amed Rosario and prospects for good measure, but all-in-all it will always feel like there was unfinished business for the Cleveland core that lost the World Series in 2016. Carlos Carrasco leaves with Lindor, as well as Brad Hand, Carlos Santana and Adam Cimber, making it a bloody 2021 transition for the franchise. This team still has some of the best young pitching in the league though. Whether its Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac or Aaron Civale, pitching seems to grow on trees in the Cleveland farm system. New hurlers like James Karinchak, Logan Allen, Emmanuel Clase and Triston McKenzie are also entering the fold in both the bullpen and rotation. Based on this fact, plus Terry Francona's ability as a manager and a generally competent lineup (with Jose Ramirez and free agent acquisition Eddie Rosario at its core), I still expect the Indians to finish just over .500.
OFFSEASON GRADE: D+
O/U PREDICTION: Over 81.5, Wildcard Candidate
2. Minnesota Twins (manager: Rocco Baldelli)
2020 Record: 36-24, 1st in Central
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 89.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Andrelton Simmons (SS), JT Riddle (UTIL) Tzu-Wei Lin (UTIL), Rob Refsnyder (UTIL), Keon Broxton (CF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Alex Colome (CL), Matt Shoemaker (SP), Hansel Robles (RP), J.A. Happ (SP), Shaun Anderson (RP/SP), Glenn Sparkman (RP/SP), Juan Minaya (RP), Luke Farrell (RP), Andrew Albers (SP/RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Nelson Cruz (DH)
Notable Hitting Losses- Eddie Rosario (LF), Marwin Gonzalez (UTIL), Ehire Adrianza (IF), Alex Avila (C), LaMonte Wade (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Trevor May (RP), Sergio Romo (RP), Rich Hill (SP), Tyler Clippard (RP), Matt Wisler (RP), Blaine Hardy (RP)
Choosing between Minnesota and Chicago is a really tough call. On the one hand, I like that the Twins have the much more veteran roster. This pitching staff is filled with players that have won divisions before, and been to the postseason. Same with their lineup, which has not really changed at all aside from the loss of Eddie Rosario. At the same time, how much do veterans like Nelly Cruz and Josh Donaldson have left in the tank? Can Happ, Shoemaker and Michael Pineda be reliable everyday starters? Will this bullpen hold up against a White Sox pen that has more potential and youth? Too many questions unanswered in my mind. At the end of the day, it just feels like Minnesota's time at the top may be over. This is a really tight over/under number for me and I would avoid it. I have the Twins finishing right around 90 wins.
OFFSEASON GRADE: C
O/U PREDICTION: Over 89.5, Wildcard Candidate
1. Chicago White Sox (manager: Tony La Russa)
2020 Record: 35-25, T-2nd in Central
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 90.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Adam Eaton (OF), Yolequi Cespedes (OF), Jake Lamb (3B), Billy Hamilton (CF), Nick Williams (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Liam Hendriks (CL), Lance Lynn (SP), Connor Sadzeck (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Carlos Rodon (SP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Nomar Mazara (OF), James McCann (C), Yolmer Sanchez (2B/3B), Jarrod Dyson (CF), Nicky Delmonico (LF/1B), Cheslor Cuthbert (1B/3B)
Notable Pitching Losses- Alex Colome (CL), Ross Detwiler (RP), Steve Cishek (RP), Gio Gonzalez (SP), Bryan Mitchell (RP)
Going into this article, I wasn't set on crowning the young ChiSox as AL Central Champs, but after looking over the other rosters, it's clear that this is Chicago's division to lose now. This franchise has reached the culmination of a very successful rebuild, with prospects hitting the majors left and right. In recent seasons we've seen Lucas Giolito (via trade), Dylan Cease, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez (unfortunately out indefinitely with a pec injury), Luis Robert, Michael Kopech and more. This year first baseman Andrew Vaughn and second baseman Nick Madrigal join that starting core, along with former first round pick Garrett Crochet in the bullpen. Yolequi Cespedes (younger half-brother of Yoenis) was even signed this off-season and could debut sometime in 2021. When you couple that with free agent signings like Hendriks and Lynn, this roster is stacked and set-up incredibly well for the future. 2021 might be a changing of the guards in the AL Central, with the White Sox set to take over as the new ruling class.
OFFSEASON GRADE: B (with call-ups)
O/U PREDICTION: Over 90.5, AL Central Champ
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