MLB NL Central Preview: The More Things Change...
- Michael Obermuller
- Mar 30, 2021
- 6 min read
Updated: Apr 1, 2021
The National League Central has been one of the more competitive baseball divisions over the last few years, with three different winners the past three seasons. The Chicago Cubs are the reigning 2020 Champs (6th Central title), but the St. Louis Cardinals won in 2019 (11th title) and the Milwaukee Brewers captured the honor in 2018 (2nd title). The Cincinnati Reds did make the postseason in 2020 as an extra wildcard, but they have not won the NL Central since 2012 (3rd title). The Pittsburgh Pirates have had less going for them in recent decades, and have never won the NL Central. Who will come out on top of this tight group in 2021? All the analysis and predictions below.
As we dive into each MLB division, I'll go over the major off-season moves for each team, my prediction for their over/under win total on FanDuel Sportsbook, and my personal picks for 2021 division winners and wildcards.
Other Divisional Previews: NL West, NL East, AL West, AL Central, AL East
2021 NL Central Off-Season Moves & Predictions
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (manager: Derek Shelton)
2020 Record: 19-41, 5th in Central
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 58.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Michael Perez (C), Dustin Fowler (OF), Todd Frazier (3B), Brian Goodwin (OF), Wilmer Difo (IF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Chasen Shreve (RP), Tyler Anderson (SP), Trevor Cahill (RP), Chase De Jong (SP/RP)
Notable Re-Signings- None
Notable Hitting Losses- Josh Bell (1B), JT Riddle (UTIL), Luke Maile (C), Socrates Brito (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Chris Archer (SP), Jameson Taillon (SP), Keone Kela (RP), Joe Musgrove (SP), Derek Holland (SP), Trevor Williams (SP), Nick Tropeano (RP)
Pittsburgh Pirates fans must be livid, as they watch their franchise make zero effort in MLB free agency yet again. Aside from Chasen Shreve, Tyler Anderson and some bench depth, the Pirates barely spent any money this Winter, and they were okay with that. They also traded away Josh Bell (a former MVP candidate at his best) and Jameson Taillon (a former top pitching prospect) among others. It's another full rebuild in Pittsburgh, and they'll wait till after the pandemic to truly invest in it. KeBryan Hayes will be the number one Pirates player to watch this season, otherwise there's not much to be excited about on this roster. I wouldn't bet on this over/under since it's so low, but if I had to I'd still take the under. Nothing about this team is good right now.
OFFSEASON GRADE: F
O/U PREDICTION: Under 58.5
4. Cincinnati Reds (manager: David Bell)
2020 Record: 31-29, 3rd in Central
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 81.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Tyler Naquin (OF), Nicky Delmonico (LF/1B), Mike Freeman (UTIL), Dwight Smith Jr. (LF), Cheslor Cuthbert (3B/1B)
Notable Pitching Additions- Cam Bedrosian (RP), Sean Doolittle (RP), Heath Hembree (RP), Jeff Hoffman (SP), Carson Fulmer (RP), Braden Shipley (RP), Josh Osich (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- None
Notable Hitting Losses- Travis Jankowski (OF), Brian Goodwin (OF), Curt Casali (C), Matt Davidson (1B)
Notable Pitching Losses- Trevor Bauer (SP), Raisel Iglesias (CL), Archie Bradley (RP), Anthony DeSclafani (SP), Robert Stephenson (RP), Brandon Finnegan (SP)
Cincy had a lot of hype in 2020, but they didn't quite live up to it finishing third place in the NL Central (although they did make the extended postseason bracket). This is actually an over/under I really like, as I feel the Reds got much worse this off-season. 81.5 games means over .500, and I don't think Cincinnati will even come close to that. They replaced Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani with Jeff Hoffman, and added virtually nothing to their aging lineup. The bullpen has also gotten worse, with failed relievers like Cam Bedrosian and Sean Doolittle replacing more promising ones like Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley. This veteran core needs a major overhaul, and I think that will be clear after 2021.
OFFSEASON GRADE: D
O/U PREDICTION: Under 81.5
3. Milwaukee Brewers (manager: Craig Counsell)
2020 Record: 29-31, 4th in Central
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 83.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Jackie Bradley Jr. (CF), Kolten Wong (2B), Travis Shaw (IF), Daniel Robertson (IF), Derek Fisher (LF), Luke Maile (C), Dylan Cozens (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Jordan Zimmerman (SP), Brad Boxberger (RP), Zack Godley (RP), Blaine Hardy (RP), Luis Perdomo (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Brett Anderson (SP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Eric Sogard (2B/3B), Ben Gamel (OF), Keon Broxton (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Corey Knebel (RP), Alex Claudio (RP), Shelby Miller (SP)
Some people are picking the Milwaukee Brewers to win the NL Central this year, but it's probably the same people that were picking them in 2020 when the Brew Crew finished under .500. I have nothing against Milwaukee personally, but this pitching staff is just not good enough in my opinion, and the Brewers have done very little to improve it in recent seasons. Jordan Zimmerman? Brad Boxberger? Zack Godley? Come on, you can do better than that, and re-signing Brett Anderson isn't "it" either. They actually lost key relievers behind Josh Hader in Knebel and Claudio, leaving Devin Williams and not much else in the pen. This rotation is just as uncertain, trusting heavily in boom-or-bust pitchers like Adrian Houser and Freddy Peralta. Even Corbin Burnes has had his ups and downs. I like the signings of Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley Jr., two players that have an influence that doesn't always show up in the boxscore, but it cost too much and Milwaukee didn't do enough to improve the lineup. Unless Christian Yelich carries this team on his back like he did a couple years ago, I see them finishing just over an even record in 2021, which won't be good enough to make the playoffs without the extra wildcards.
OFFSEASON GRADE: C+
O/U PREDICTION: Too close to call (83/84 win projection)
2. Chicago Cubs (manager: David Ross)
2020 Record: 34-26, 1st in Central
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 78.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Joc Pederson (OF), Eric Sogard (2B/3B), Jake Marisnick (OF), Austin Romine (C), Matt Duffy (3B), Nick Martini (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Zach Davies (SP), Jake Arrieta (SP), Trevor Williams (SP), Brandon Workman (RP), Jonathan Holder (RP), Shelby Miller (SP), Robert Stock (RP), Adam Morgan (RP), Joe Biagini (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Anthony Rizzo (1B), Pedro Strop (RP), Ryan Tepera (RP), Andrew Chafin (RP), Cameron Maybin (OF)
Notable Hitting Losses- Kyle Schwarber (LF), Albert Almora (CF), Steven Souza Jr. (RF), Jose Martinez (1B), Victor Caratini (C/1B), Hernan Perez (UTIL)
Notable Pitching Losses- Yu Darvish (SP), Jeremy Jeffress (RP), Jose Quintana (SP), Jon Lester (SP), Tyler Chatwood (SP), Josh Osich (RP)
The Cubs totally proved me wrong last season. I had the Cardinals winning the NL Central, but I'm pretty sure I had the Cubs dropping down below the Reds and Brewers too. I've done an about-face in 2021. FanDuel has Chicago all the way down at 78.5 wins, which is their worst projection in the NL Central besides the Pirates. I'm surprised by this, and I definitely like the over here. I know the Cubs lost Yu Darvish and some of their veteran starting pitchers, but Jon Lester and Jose Quintana are fifth starters at best at this point in their careers, and the Cubbies have some more exciting depth on the roster that can easily replace them (Adbert Alzolay and Alec Mills). Plus they did get a solid starter back from the Darvish trade, in Zach Davies. They also improved on the other side of the ball with signings like Joc Pederson, along with solid veteran bench depth (Marisnick, Sogard, Romine). The World Series core is still intact in Chicago (Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras), they just need to find themselves at the plate once again. I believe former teammate David Ross is the right manager to help them do this, and he proved that by winning the division in his inaugural season in charge.
OFFSEASON GRADE: C
O/U PREDICTION: Over 78.5, Wildcard Candidate
1. St. Louis Cardinals (manager: Mike Shildt)
2020 Record: 30-28, 2nd in Central
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 86
Notable Hitting Additions- Nolan Arenado (3B), Ali Sanchez (C), Max Moroff (IF), Matt Szczur (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- None
Notable Re-Signings- Yadier Molina (C), Adam Wainwright (SP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Kolten Wong (2B), Dexter Fowler (OF), Brad Miller (1B/3B)
Notable Pitching Losses- Austin Gomber (SP/RP), John Brebbia (RP)
The Cardinals kept their off-season extremely concise, as they've been known to do. There was one headliner of course, the acquisition of superstar Nolan Arenado. This is such a major transaction for St. Louis, because Arenado is a player that dominates on both sides of the ball. We all know that he can hit, but he's without a doubt one of the top defensive gloves in the game as well, and that should fuel the Redbirds to another division title. Besides Arenado, they had a couple key veteran re-signings that almost fell through in Molina and Wainwright. Molina's return is especially necessary for this pitching staff, as one of the most knowledgeable defensive catchers to ever live. They do lose a couple of role players in Wong and Gomber among others, but overall it's an off-season that turns a good team into a contender. I don't necessarily think the Cards have what it takes to beat the best of the NL East and West, but they should outlast the rest of the division simply because they don't have any glaring weaknesses. I was wrong about St. Louis winning the NL Central in 2020, but I'm doubling down in '21.
OFFSEASON GRADE: B
O/U PREDICTION: Over 86, NL Central Champ
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