MLB NL East Preview: Fight to the Finish
- Michael Obermuller
- Mar 31, 2021
- 8 min read
Updated: Apr 1, 2021
Despite the recent World Series run out of the wildcard by the Washington Nationals, the Atlanta Braves have been the champs of the National League East for the last three seasons. 2020 marked Atlanta's 15th NL East title, while Washington only won their fifth in 2017. The New York Mets also went to a World Series in 2015 (although they lost theirs), which was the last time they won the East (sixth time total). As for the Philadelphia Phillies; they had a stretch of five straight division titles from 2007-11 (with two World Series appearances and one victory), but have not won since. They have 11 total NL East titles. The Miami Marlins have never won the NL East, but have won two World Series since its restructuring. Heading into 2020, the Braves are the team to beat once again, but the Mets, Phillies and Nats have all spent big money to contend with Atlanta. Even Miami showed potential in 2020, albeit in a shortened season. This is easily the most competitive division in baseball right now, making for an interesting title race. My thoughts below.
As we dive into each MLB division, I'll go over the major off-season moves for each team, my prediction for their over/under win total on FanDuel Sportsbook, and my personal picks for 2021 division winners and wildcards.
*Included at the bottom is a National League Playoff Picture! Encompassing all NL Previews.
Other Divisional Previews: NL West, NL Central, AL West, AL Central, AL East
2021 NL East Off-Season Moves & Predictions
5. Miami Marlins (manager: Don Mattingly)
2020 Record: 31-29, 2nd in East
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 71.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Adam Duvall (OF), Sandy Leon (C)
Notable Pitching Additions- Anthony Bass (CL), Adam Cimber (RP), John Curtiss (RP), Dylan Floro (RP), Ross Detwiler (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Starling Marte (OF)
Notable Hitting Losses- Harold Ramirez (OF), Matt Joyce (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Brandon Kintzler (RP), Brad Boxberger (RP), Nick Vincent (RP), Jose Urena (SP), Adam Conley (RP), Ryne Stanek (SP/RP), Jordan Yamamoto (SP), Drew Steckenrider (RP), Stephen Tarpley (RP/SP)
The Marlins roster played to the 2020 structure, with tons of pitching prospects available to keep the opposition guessing on a daily basis. Most of these pitchers never had to face teams more than once, which seemed to frustrate batters as Miami got on a hot streak. The 162 game season eliminates these advantages, and makes it tougher to use openers and call-ups all year long. I do think that the Marlins have improved, but its hard to see them finishing anywhere but fifth in this stacked division. One area that does really impress me is Miami's bullpen. The trades for Cimber, Curtiss and Floro really added depth to their staff (not to mention signings Bass and Detwiler). This should allow them to continue the opener strategy if they so choose. This relief pitching crew alone might be enough to surpass the Nats or Phils, but they'll need more consistency from their lineup and rotation if they hope to make another run at the postseason.
OFFSEASON GRADE: B
O/U PREDICTION: Over 71.5
4. Washington Nationals (manager: Dave Martinez)
2020 Record: 26-34, T-4th in East
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 84
Notable Hitting Additions- Josh Bell (1B), Kyle Schwarber (LF), Alex Avila (C), Hernan Perez (UTIL), Jordy Mercer (SS), Gerardo Parra (OF), Blake Swihart (C/OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Brad Hand (CL), Jon Lester (SP), Luis Avilan (RP), Aaron Barrett (RP), Jefry Rodriguez (SP), Justin Miller (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Ryan Zimmerman (1B), Josh Harrison (UTIL), Welington Castillo (C)
Notable Hitting Losses- Adam Eaton (OF), Asdrubal Cabrera (3B/2B), Kurt Suzuki (C), Brock Holt (UTIL), Michael Taylor (OF), Wilmer Difo (IF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Sean Doolittle (RP), Roenis Elias (RP/SP)
The Nats had a decent off-season too, but it could have been better if not for some signings that fell through. Jeremy Jeffress was briefly brought in to help as a set-up man to Brad Hand, but then released prior to Spring Training due to personal reasons. A couple other bullpen fliers didn't work out either. Combine those misfires with Stephen Strasburg's current pitching woes coming back from injury, and a shakier rotation that will rely on an old Jon Lester and inconsistent Joe Ross making up the back-end. The result, another sub-par roster in Washington. One move I did really like was the buy-low trade for Josh Bell, but the streaky hitter must perform (the same can be said about Schwarber). This lineup may frustrate some teams, centered around Juan Soto and Trea Turner, but the roster as a whole still has a lot of the same problems as in years past. No hitting depth, a top-heavy rotation, and a nerve-racking bullpen.
OFFSEASON GRADE: B -
O/U PREDICTION: Under 84
3. Philadelphia Phillies (manager: Joe Girardi)
2020 Record: 28-32, 3rd in East
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 81.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Brad Miller (1B/3B), Matt Joyce (OF), Travis Jankowski (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Archie Bradley (RP), Brandon Kintzler (RP), Chase Anderson (SP), Matt Moore (SP), Jose Alvarado (RP), Sam Coonrod (RP), Neftali Feliz (RP), Bryan Mitchell (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- J.T. Realmuto (C), Didi Gregorius (SS), Hector Neris (RP), Ronald Torreyes (INF)
Notable Hitting Losses- Jay Bruce (1B/DH), Phil Gosselin (IF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Blake Parker (RP), Jake Arrieta (SP), Tommy Hunter (RP), Brandon Workman (RP), Adam Morgan (RP), David Phelps (RP), Heath Hembree (RP), Victor Arano (RP), Jerad Eickhoff (SP), Deolis Guerra (RP), Cole Irvin (RP)
The Phillies were able to re-sign J.T. Realmuto, and in some ways their off-season was a success just because of that lone fact. At the same time, the big-money deal cost a lot, and took awhile. And those factors may have prevented Philadelphia from improving their roster in other areas. For example, this rotation has a lot of questions behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Zach Eflin is slated to be the third starter, but after that the Phillies took fliers on washed up arms like Matt Moore and Chase Anderson, who beat out Ivan Nova and others for the jobs to their credit. Can you really trust in these has-beens against lineups like the Mets and Braves though? They also went with the band-aid approach in the bullpen, but Hector Rondon and Tony Watson didn't even make the Opening Day roster. Archie Bradley and Brandon Kintzler signings worked out a bit better, but this bullpen is still relying on Hector Neris to close right now, a scary thought. The strength of the Phils is definitely their lineup, but the rest of their roster has more flaws than the top NL East clubs, leaving them smack-dab in the middle for yet another campaign.
OFFSEASON GRADE: B -
O/U PREDICTION: Over 81.5, Wildcard Candidate
2. New York Mets (manager: Luis Rojas)
2020 Record: 26-34, T-4th in East
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 91
Notable Hitting Additions- Francisco Lindor (SS), James McCann (C), Jonathan Villar (IF), Kevin Pillar (OF), Albert Almora (OF), Jose Peraza (IF), Jose Martinez (1B/LF), Caleb Joseph (C), Mallex Smith (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Carlos Carrasco (SP), Trevor May (RP), Taijuan Walker (SP), Aaron Loup (RP), Joey Lucchesi (SP), Jacob Barnes (RP), Tommy Hunter (RP), Sean Reid-Foley (SP), Jordan Yamamoto (SP), Sam McWilliams (RP), Trevor Hildenberger (RP), Stephen Tarpley (SP/RP), Jerad Eickhoff (SP)
Notable Re-Signings- Marcus Stroman (SP), Dellin Betances (RP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Andres Gimenez (SS), Amed Rosario (SS), Wilson Ramos (C), Jake Marisnick (OF), Robinson Chirinos (C), Juan Lagares (OF), Jed Lowrie (IF), Todd Frazier (3B), Guillermo Heredia (OF), Billy Hamilton (OF), Ali Sanchez (C)
Notable Pitching Losses- Justin Wilson (RP), Steven Matz (SP), Chasen Shreve (RP), Michael Wacha (SP), Brad Brach (RP), Paul Sewald (RP), Erasmo Ramirez (RP), Jared Hughes (RP)
Some Mets fans will be disappointed by this off-season, because they had more money than everyone else and still missed out on Trevor Bauer, George Springer, Brad Hand and J.T. Realmuto (among others). True baseball fans won't be though. It's not always about spending the most money, but finding the right pieces at the right value, and the trade for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco exemplified that. The James McCann, Trevor May and Taijuan Walker signings may end up fitting that mold to, or the deal for Lucchesi (who's made the Opening Day rotation). Two minor moves I personally loved were the additions of Pillar and Villar, which ironically rhyme. Both veterans bring winning experience, as journeymen that know the grind of a long MLB season. The Mets off-season not only helped their major league roster, it gutted their minor league system, creating a multitude of depth at all levels (something that may be needed this season more than most). I'm not sure if it'll end up being enough to beat out the Braves, but this will be the closest any team comes in years, and I expect this race to go right down to the wire.
OFFSEASON GRADE: A -
O/U PREDICTION: Over 91, Wildcard Candidate
1. Atlanta Braves (manager: Brian Snitker)
2020 Record: 35-25, 1st in East
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 91.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Ehire Adrianza (IF), Guillermo Heredia (OF), Jason Kipnis (2B), Travis Demeritte (OF), Jeff Mathis (C), Abraham Almonte (OF), Terrance Gore (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Charlie Morton (SP), Drew Smyly (SP), Nate Jones (RP), Victor Arano (RP), Chasen Bradford (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Marcell Ozuna (LF), Josh Tomlin (RP/SP), Pablo Sandoval (3B)
Notable Hitting Losses- Adam Duvall (OF), Adeiny Hechavarria (IF), Charlie Culberson (UTIL), Scott Schebler (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Mark Melancon (CL), Darren O'Day (RP), Anthony Swarzak (RP), Mike Foltynewicz (SP), Tommy Milone (SP), Jhoulys Chacin (SP/RP), Felix Hernandez (SP)
It was not a very exciting Winter for the Braves, even though it started with a bang when they signed vet SP Charlie Morton on one of the first days of MLB free agency. From there, they were able to bring back Ozuna, but focused on depth pieces beyond that and Drew Smyly. I was surprised to see that the Carl Edwards Jr. bullpen signing didn't work out, and that's one area that Atlanta definitely took a hit. Even so, they've pieced things together most seasons, and there's no reason to believe they can't in 2021 with a balanced roster and a solid farm system behind it. After all, Mike Soroka is returning soon, and they still have two of the best players in baseball at the heart of their lineup (Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna Jr.).
OFFSEASON GRADE: C
O/U PREDICTION: Over 91.5, NL East Champ
National League Playoff Picture
Wildcard Race: New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs
Wildcard Winners/Matchup: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
I'm hesitant to take the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves, because something always goes wrong when it comes to Mets vs. Braves, but I am really excited about this roster. It seems to have that spark in Spring, something the Padres had last year. If the schedule allows it, this matchup would likely be Yu Darvish or Blake Snell head-to-head against Jacob deGrom (a showdown of aces). I do think the Padres are a tad overhyped this season though, and the home-field advantage plus the two-time Cy Young winner on the mound are enough for me to trust New York in Queens.
Mets Advance
(4) New York Mets @ (1) Los Angeles Dodgers
Unfortunately for the Mets, losing the division may lose them the postseason in the end, as they'll run into the Dodgers first round. New York can't match their pitching depth as of now (even if Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco return), leading to a narrow LA series win.
Dodgers Advance
(3) St. Louis Cardinals @ (2) Atlanta Braves
Two teams that are no stranger to the National League Playoffs in recent seasons, the Cards and Braves go head-to-head yet again. Atlanta probably has the better team between the two, but after St. Louis traded for Arenado, I really think they may go all-out at the trade deadline to acquire another starting pitcher for the playoffs. Plus the Braves always choke in the postseason. I'll take the Redbirds in a surprise first-round upset.
Cardinals Advance
(3) St. Louis Cardinals @ (1) Los Angeles Dodgers
It's a boring pick I know, but the Dodgers have made the World Series three out of the last four seasons, and their roster is better than ever in 2021. I actually think the Mets give LA a tougher time than St. Louis, as Los Angeles wins ANOTHER NL Pennant on their quest to repeat as "legitimate" 162-game World Series Champs.
Dodgers Advance to World Series
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