MLB NL West Preview: Chasing Champions
- Michael Obermuller
- Mar 30, 2021
- 6 min read
Updated: Apr 1, 2021
The National League West has been dominated by one MLB franchise since 2013, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have won eight straight NL West titles (19 total), which finally culminated in their first World Series Championship season since 1988. The drought is finally over for LAD, but can any of their division rivals finally end droughts of their own and win this division? The San Francisco Giants were the last NL West franchise to win it in 2012 (for the 8th time), but the Arizona Diamondbacks won the West the season before in 2011 (5th division title). The San Diego Padres have not won the division since 2006 (5th title), and the Colorado Rockies have never won the NL West.
As we dive into each MLB division, I'll go over the major off-season moves for each team, my prediction for their over/under win total on FanDuel Sportsbook, and my personal picks for 2021 division winners and wildcards.
Other Divisional Previews: NL East, NL Central, AL West, AL Central, AL East
2021 NL West Off-Season Moves & Predictions
5. Colorado Rockies (manager: Bud Black)
2020 Record: 26-34, 4th in West
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 63.5
Notable Hitting Additions- C.J. Cron (1B), Jose Briceno (C), Greg Bird (1B)
Notable Pitching Additions- Austin Gomber (SP/RP), Robert Stephenson (RP), Dereck Rodriguez (SP), Yoan Aybar (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Daniel Bard (CL), Chris Owings (UTIL)
Notable Hitting Losses- Nolan Arenado (3B), David Dahl (OF), Daniel Murphy (1B), Kevin Pillar (OF), Ian Desmond (OF-OptOut), Tony Wolters (C), Drew Butera (C)
Notable Pitching Losses- Wade Davis (RP), James Pazos (RP), Jeff Hoffman (SP)
The Rockies have not done anything to make themselves better in 2021, and should easily be one of the bottom of the barrel MLB teams this season. The pandemic seemed to affect their decision-making the last couple of off-seasons, as management quickly backtracked from their promise to build around Nolan Arenado. The star third baseman was promptly shopped, and eventually dealt to the St. Louis Cardinals for a haul of prospects that headlined Austin Gomber as the main 2021 contributer. Gomber is set to start for Colorado, but he's one of the only major league additions that they made this Winter. C.J. Cron is one of the others, and the journeyman first baseman had to fight his way on the roster. With other veterans like David Dahl, Daniel Murphy, Ian Desmond and Wade Davis all off the roster for one reason or another, the Rockies will likely use the season to see what they have in terms of youth. Everyday players like Sam Hilliard, Raimel Tapia, Brendan Rodgers, Ryan McMahon and more should get long looks in 2021. Even if they overperform offensively though, this pitching staff is poor, and this division is no cake-walk.
OFFSEASON GRADE: F
O/U PREDICTION: Under 63.5
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (manager: Torey Lovullo)
2020 Record: 25-35, 5th in West
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 74.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Asdrubal Cabrera (3B/2B), Bryan Holaday (C)
Notable Pitching Additions- Joakim Soria (CL), Ryan Buchter (RP), Chris Devenski (RP), Anthony Swarzak (RP), Heath Fillmyer (RP), Tyler Clippard (RP-INJ)
Notable Re-Signings- Merrill Kelly (SP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Jon Jay (OF), John Hicks (C/1B), Yasmany Tomas (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Robbie Ray (SP), Junior Guerra (RP), Hector Rondon (RP), Travis Bergen (RP), Jimmie Sherfy (RP), Silvino Bracho (RP)
The NL West battle for third place should be tighter than the battle for last or second (behind the top two franchises). Right now I give the edge to the San Francisco Giants, leaving Arizona in fourth in 2021. I actually really liked the Diamondbacks chances last season, but their free agency period ended up being disastrous. Now they're left with a ton of question marks this year, their starting rotation chief among them. Madison Bumgarner leads the group, but he looked like he forgot how to pitch last season, and in 2021 his Spring Training ERA is up over six. The Zac Gallen arm fracture doesn't help, and Luke Weaver has yet to rebound from his own injuries. The D-Backs lineup is probably their strength, but it's not good enough to sustain a lousy rotation and a sub-par bullpen (one arm brought in to help the relief staff is already out long-term, Tyler Clippard). Arizona fans will likely set their sights on prospect call-ups, like Daulton Varsho and Pavin Smith.
OFFSEASON GRADE: C
O/U PREDICTION: Under 74.5
3. San Francisco Giants (manager: Gabe Kapler)
2020 Record: 29-31, 3rd in West
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 75
Notable Hitting Additions- Tommy La Stella (2B/3B), Justin Bour (1B), LaMonte Wade Jr. (OF), Curt Casali (C)
Notable Pitching Additions- Jake McGee (RP), Aaron Sanchez (SP), Anthony DeSclafani (SP), Alex Wood (SP/RP), Matt Wisler (RP), Nick Tropeano (RP), Jimmie Sherfy (RP), Dominic Leone (RP), John Brebbia (RP), Jay Jackson (RP), Shun Yamaguchi (SP/RP), Silvino Bracho (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Kevin Gausman (SP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Justin Smoak (1B)
Notable Pitching Losses- Tony Watson (RP), Drew Smyly (SP), Tyler Anderson (SP), Shaun Anderson (RP/SP), Dereck Rodriguez (SP), Sam Coonrod (RP)
San Francisco didn't really make any huge moves this off-season, but they did make positive strides to improve their roster. It was definitely a quantity (rather than quality) approach in the pitching department as the Giants took fliers on Aaron Sanchez, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and numerous relievers. Jake McGee was most notably brought in to close games, and Kevin Gausman was re-signed to be the ace of this Giants rotation. As for everyday hitting, it's largely the same group as last campaign with the one major addition being Tommy La Stella. Youngsters like Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano and Mauricio Dubon will try and use this season to improve, as this Giants core of old (Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, etc.) continues its transition.
OFFSEASON GRADE: B-
O/U PREDICTION: Over 75
2. San Diego Padres (manager: Jayce Tingler)
2020 Record: 37-23, 2nd in West
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 94.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Ha-Seong Kim (2B), Victor Caratini (C), Brian O'Grady (OF/1B)
Notable Pitching Additions- Yu Darvish (SP), Blake Snell (SP), Mark Melancon (CL), Keone Kela (RP), Joe Musgrove (SP), Aaron Northcraft (RP), Jacob Rhame (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Jurickson Profar (UTIL)
Notable Hitting Losses- Mitch Moreland (1B), Francisco Mejia (C), Jason Castro (C), Greg Allen (OF), Abraham Almonte (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Kirby Yates (CL), Trevor Rosenthal (RP), Zach Davies (SP), Garrett Richards (SP), Joey Lucchesi (SP), Robbie Erlin (SP/RP), Luis Perdomo (RP)
The San Diego Padres are the only team that can stand toe-to-toe with the Dodgers in 2021, but even this upstart Friars team should have trouble keeping up with LA over the course of a 162 game season. The big changes come in the pitching staff this off-season, after San Diego traded for both Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, two front-line aces. They also acquired Joe Musgrove in the rotation, as well as Mark Melancon and Keone Kela to help in the back-end of the pen. In some ways, the Padres had to make all-in decisions like this after the Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet injuries last season. Lamet should return soon, but Clevinger probably won't pitch in 2021. My question is, did they improve enough? There's a lot of pressure for this San Diego team to live up to the 2020 hype, and I actually think they'll underperform a bit over the grind of a full-length season, finishing around 90 wins.
OFFSEASON GRADE: B+
O/U PREDICTION: Under 94.5, Wildcard Candidate
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (manager: Dave Roberts)
2020 Record: 43-17, 1st in West
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 103.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Matt Davidson (1B), Sheldon Neuse (2B/3B), Carlos Asuaje (IF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Trevor Bauer (SP), Corey Knebel (RP), Tommy Kahnle (RP-INJ), Brandon Morrow (RP), James Pazos (RP), Enny Romero (RP), Gus Varland (SP)
Notable Re-Signings- Justin Turner (3B), Blake Treinen (RP), Jimmy Nelson (RP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Kike Hernandez (2B/OF), Joc Pederson (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Pedro Baez (RP), Adam Kolarek (RP), Jake McGee (RP), Dylan Floro (RP), Alex Wood (SP/RP), Edubray Ramos (RP)
Los Angeles did lose some bullpen and bench depth this off-season, but it would have been near impossible to get through the Winter unscathed, especially when you consider that they went out and added the 2020 NL Cy Young (Trevor Bauer)! This roster has seven or eight starting pitchers that would be a lock for the rotation on most teams, they have eight and nine batters that would hit in the middle of most lineups, and they still have one of the better bullpens in baseball. The Dodgers are stacked, and they're deep, with prospects that are still joining the major league roster every year. Barring something unforeseen, they should win their ninth straight NL West title.
OFFSEASON GRADE: C+
O/U PREDICTION: Over 103.5, NL West Champ
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