MLB AL East Preview: The Powder Keg
- Michael Obermuller
- Apr 1, 2021
- 8 min read
As we journey into our final MLB 2021 divisional preview (sorry for the slight delay), we enter a group known for its storied rivalries, and fierce competitive nature. In the last seven years alone, each franchise has won the American League East at least once. The team with the longest lay-off has been the Baltimore Orioles, who won their ninth division title in 2014. The Toronto Blue Jays then won their sixth East title in 2015. From there, the Boston Red Sox took back control, hanging three straight banners from 2016-18 (10 total). Of course that leaves the two most recent winners, the New York Yankees (19th division title in 2019) and Tampa Bay Rays (third in 2020). In 2021, the AL East is easily one of the toughest divisions to predict yet again, with the Yanks as the betting favorites and the Jays and Rays not too far behind them. You can never count out the Red Sox either, making the AL East a powder keg, waiting to explode once again.
As always, I'll dive into each MLB division, going over the major off-season moves for each team, my prediction for their over/under win total on FanDuel Sportsbook, and my personal picks for 2021 division winners and wildcards.
*Included at the bottom is an American League Playoff Picture! Encompassing all AL Previews, plus my pick for the 2021 World Series Champion.
Other Divisional Previews: NL West, NL Central, NL East, AL West, AL Central
2021 AL East Off-Season Moves & Predictions
5. Baltimore Orioles (manager: Brandon Hyde)
2020 Record: 25-35, 4th in East
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 63.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Freddy Galvis (SS), Jahmai Jones (2B)
Notable Pitching Additions- Adam Plutko (SP), Matt Harvey (SP)
Notable Re-Signings- Wade LeBlanc (SP/RP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Jose Iglesias (SS), Renato Nunez (1B), Hanser Alberto (IF), Dwight Smith Jr. (OF), Andrew Velazquez (UTIL), Bryan Holaday (C)
Notable Pitching Losses- Alex Cobb (SP), Asher Wojciechowski (SP)
The Orioles actually managed to get out of the cellar for one season during the 60-game sprint in 2020, but they should end up right back in it by the end of 2021. The real issue here is the pitching staff. When Matt Harvey is listed as the No. 2 starter after barely making the team in Spring Training, that's not a good sign. This group hasn't changed too much otherwise. A trade for Adam Plutko slightly fills the void lost by Cobb's exit, and Galvis is a poor man's fill-in for Iglesias. Overall this Baltimore franchise seems to be in no rush to get better. They even let promising younger talent walk, in Renato Nunez and Hanser Alberto.
OFFSEASON GRADE: D
O/U PREDICTION: Under 63.5
4. Boston Red Sox (manager: Alex Cora)
2020 Record: 24-36, 5th in East
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 79.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Kike Hernandez (2B/CF), Hunter Renfroe (RF), Marwin Gonzalez (UTIL), Franchy Cordero (CF), Danny Santana (1B/LF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Adam Ottavino (RP), Garrett Richards (SP), Hirokazu Sawamura (RP), Matt Andriese (RP), Daniel Gossett (SP), Kevin McCarthy (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Martin Perez (SP), Yairo Munoz (UTIL)
Notable Hitting Losses- Andrew Benintendi (OF), Jackie Bradley Jr. (CF), Jose Peraza (IF), Jonathan Lucroy (C), Tzu-Wei Lin (UTIL), Dustin Pedroia (2B)
Notable Pitching Losses- Collin McHugh (RP/SP), Domingo Tapia (RP), Robert Stock (RP), Chris Mazza (RP/SP), Trevor Hildenberger (RP)
After a totally lost 2020 campaign, the Red Sox have brought back manager Alex Cora as they hope to inch back towards .500 (and possibly surprise some teams). The Boston lineup is as formidable as ever, but in this power-packed division you do not want to have bad pitching, and the O's and Sox both suffer from that same affliction. The patched up rotation features Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Richards, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck (along with the returning Martin Perez). They also made a surprise trade with bitter rival NYY for Ottavino, who should pitch high-leverage situations for this Sox bullpen (and maybe even close out some games). Boston's core of bats is mostly the same, but some new names to watch are slugging first baseman Bobby Dalbec, and ex-Dodgers Alex Verdugo and Kike Hernandez in full-time starting roles. Improvement from last year, no doubt about it, but Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom still has a lot of work to do. 2022 may be a more realistic goal for fans.
OFFSEASON GRADE: B
O/U PREDICTION: PUSH 79.5 (too close to call, most likely under)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (manager: Kevin Cash)
2020 Record: 40-20, 1st in East
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 86
Notable Hitting Additions- Francisco Mejia (C)
Notable Pitching Additions- Chris Archer (SP), Rich Hill (SP), Michael Wacha (SP), Collin McHugh (RP/SP), Chris Mazza (RP/SP), Hunter Strickland (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Mike Zunino (C), Chaz Roe (RP), Oliver Drake (RP), Kevan Smith (C)
Notable Hitting Losses- Nate Lowe (1B/3B), Hunter Renfroe (RF), Daniel Robertson (IF), Michael Perez (C), Brian O'Grady (1B/LF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Blake Snell (SP), Charlie Morton (SP), Aaron Loup (RP), John Curtiss (RP), Aaron Slegers (RP), Jose Alvarado (RP), Sam McWilliams (RP)
A lot of injuries have befallen Tampa Bay in Spring Training just a few short months after they lost in the 2020 World Series. It's going to be a battle between the top three in the AL East this year, but the Rays have definitely lost a bit of ground based on their off-season and health issues. Key reliever and committee closer Nick Anderson was the most recent arm lost for the season, but Tampa currently has five pitchers on the 60-day IL. After decisions to move on from Morton and trade Snell (not to mention losses like Loup, Curtiss and Slegers), this staff is nowhere near where it was a year ago. I wouldn't be surprised if Chris Archer bounces back in Tampa, but it's hard to trust Rich Hill and Wacha after that (may see some prospects get a shot sooner than later). The lineup also loses some punch with Nate Lowe and Hunter Renfroe shipped off. It just seems like the small-market Rays were hurt more than most by the pandemic, and these are the results.
OFFSEASON GRADE: D
O/U PREDICTION: Under 86, Wildcard Candidate
2. Toronto Blue Jays (manager: Charlie Montoyo)
2020 Record: 32-28, 3rd in East
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 86
Notable Hitting Additions- George Springer (CF), Marcus Semien (SS), Tyler White (1B)
Notable Pitching Additions- Kirby Yates (CL-INJ), Robbie Ray (SP), Steven Matz (SP), Tyler Chatwood (RP/SP), David Phelps (RP), Tommy Milone (SP), Travis Bergen (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Rafael Dolis (RP), Joe Panik (2B), A.J. Cole (RP/SP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Jonathan Villar (IF), Travis Shaw (IF), Brandon Drury (3B), Derek Fisher (LF), Caleb Joseph (C)
Notable Pitching Losses- Taijuan Walker (SP), Ken Giles (CL), Matt Shoemaker (SP), Anthony Bass (RP), Sean Reid-Foley (SP), Chase Anderson (SP), Shun Yamaguchi (SP/RP), Sam Gaviglio (RP/SP)
As I write this, the Blue Jays are going toe-to-toe with the Yankees on Opening Day (currently 2-2 in the sixth). This Toronto team is legit, and they would be even stronger if not for a litany of injuries to some of their biggest free agent acquisitions. Kirby Yates is done for the year, George Springer is currently out, pitching prospect Nate Pearson is on the IL. Even starter Robbie Ray is banged up after supposedly tripping and falling down some stairs. It's been a bizarre month for Jays fans (a roller coaster of sorts), but their roster is still in decent shape despite all of this. Once the rotation gets healthy, my biggest concern is the bullpen. Without Yates, Rafael Dolis is probably the top arm in this relief staff (even if Jordan Romano takes over as the closer). This is an area that they may have to improve upon at the trade deadline, because this youthful lineup can hit (Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.). The additions of Springer and Semien may end up being crucial towards Toronto taking that next step both defensively, and as experienced professionals with an eye towards postseason play.
OFFSEASON GRADE: B - (after Yates injury)
O/U PREDICTION: Over 86, Wildcard Candidate
1. New York Yankees (manager: Aaron Boone)
2020 Record: 33-27, 2nd in East
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 95.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Jay Bruce (1B/DH), Derek Dietrich (UTIL), Andrew Velazquez (UTIL), Greg Allen (OF), Socrates Brito (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Darren O'Day (RP), Corey Kluber (SP), Jameson Taillon (SP), Justin Wilson (RP-INJ), Asher Wojciechowski (SP)
Notable Re-Signings- DJ LeMahieu (IF), Zack Britton (RP-INJ), Brett Gardner (OF), Adam Warren (RP), Tyler Lyons (RP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Matt Duffy (3B), Jordy Mercer (IF)
Notable Pitching Losses- James Paxton (SP), Adam Ottavino (RP), Mashahiro Tanaka (SP), Tommy Kahnle (RP-INJ), J.A. Happ (SP), Luis Avilan (RP), Jonathan Holder (RP)
The Yankees have not been immune to early-season injuries either. They've already lost Zack Britton, Luke Voit, Miguel Andujar and Justin Wilson (with Luis Severino still recovering). Even so, this roster is built to last, with Brian Cashman working towards this moment for a very long time. The most intriguing signings should be the starting pitching fliers taken on Kluber and Taillon. Both have elite stuff when totally healthy, but neither has been in such condition in years. If they faulter, this rotational depth will have to rely heavily on younger arms like Jordan Montgomery, Domingo German, Michael King and more. The bullpen also cannot afford anymore injuries. At the end of the day, the major objectives were re-signing DJ LeMahieu and replacing Paxton and Tanaka, the Yankees sort of did that. Now they have to perform.
OFFSEASON GRADE: C - (after injuries)
O/U PREDICTION: Over 95.5, AL East Champ
American League Playoff Picture
Wildcard Race: Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
Wildcard Winners/Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
With the AL East beating up on each other more than the Central, I have the Twins narrowly edging out the top wildcard from the Jays and Rays. Toronto then advances into the play-in by a couple games over the defending AL Champs. In the play-in, Minnesota's playoff woes continue as the younger Blue Jays knock them off on the road.
Blue Jays Advance
(4) Toronto Blue Jays @ (1) New York Yankees
The culmination of the American League East will occur in the MLB Divisional Round of the Playoffs. Expect the Bronx to be humming for this series, but don't overlook the upstart Blue Jays who were literally built for this moment with additions like Springer and Semien. In the end, starting pitching prevails (which usually means the Yankees lose). In this case, the Bombers actually take a series behind their ace Gerrit Cole, and their deep bullpen of experienced arms (which should be healthier by then).
Yankees Advance
(3) Oakland Athletics @ (2) Chicago White Sox
An interesting series that we actually got a sneak preview of last postseason. The A's took that one, but it was only a three-game bout. This time the White Sox have the advantage, with a deeper rotation than in 2020 to match Oakland's pitching. The bats are easily advantage Chicago.
White Sox Advance
(2) Chicago White Sox @ (1) New York Yankees
This matchup has all the makings of an all-time classic series, with the winner set to take on the reigning champion LA Dodgers. Both have a dynamic young core of hitters, both have a top-notch ace (Cole/Giolito). The Yankees will have home-field and the advantage of postseason experience, but the deciding factor for me is going to be pitching depth behind the aces. Chicago's Lance Lynn, Dallas Keuchel and Dylan Cease/Carlos Rodon top what the Yankees have right now with Kluber/Taillon and the young arms. Cashman's undoing will once again be shopping bargain value at starting pitcher, as the Bombers fall short of the World Series yet again.
White Sox Advance to World Series
2021 World Series Prediction
(AL-2) Chicago White Sox @ (NL-1) Los Angeles Dodgers
More than anything, I'd love to see someone knock off the Dodgers this season. So if this series does come to pass, I'll be rooting for the White Sox, or the Yankees, or whomever the AL Champ is. Realistically though, it's not happening as of now. The White Sox have loads of potential, but they lack the experience of LAD (who is also more talented and balanced than the Yankees). Chicago hangs with LA and wins a couple games, but the Dodgers make good on their promise to win a "real" 162-game World Series and repeat in 2021.
Dodgers Win World Series
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