MLB AL West Preview: Surprises Afoot
- Michael Obermuller
- Mar 31, 2021
- 7 min read
Updated: Apr 1, 2021
The American League West flipped around 2017, when the Houston Astros won their first division title, becoming the governing force of the group. They ended up winning three straight AL West titles before the sign-stealing scandal dropped in 2020, which lead to another changing of the tides as the Oakland Athletics took home their 17th divisional trophy. As for the other franchises in the AL West, the Seattle Mariners face the longest drought, last winning in 2001 (their third West title). The Los Angeles Angels are next, their last title was their ninth, and it ranges back to 2014. The Texas Rangers are the most recent winner behind the A's and Stros, claiming their sixth and seventh AL West titles in 2015 and '16. In 2021, odds have Houston back on top after one season in second, but I'm not so sure.
As always, I'll dive into each MLB division, going over the major off-season moves for each team, my prediction for their over/under win total on FanDuel Sportsbook, and my personal picks for 2021 division winners and wildcards.
Other Divisional Previews: NL West, NL Central, NL East, AL Central, AL East
2021 AL West Off-Season Moves & Predictions
5. Texas Rangers (manager: Chris Woodward)
2020 Record: 22-38, 5th in West
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 67.5
Notable Hitting Additions- David Dahl (OF), Nate Lowe (1B/3B), Khris Davis (DH), Brock Holt (UTIL), Charlie Culberson (LF/SS), Delino DeShields Jr. (CF), John Hicks (C/1B), Drew Butera (C)
Notable Pitching Additions- Kohei Arihara (SP), Mike Foltynewicz (SP), Ian Kennedy (RP), Nick Vincent (RP), Edubray Ramos (RP), Hunter Wood (RP/SP), Tyson Ross (SP), Justin Anderson (RP), Jharel Cotton (SP/RP), Hyeon-jong Yang (SP), Sam Gaviglio (RP/SP)
Notable Re-Signings- None
Notable Hitting Losses- Elvis Andrus (SS), Danny Santana (1B/LF), Derek Dietrich (UTIL), Jeff Mathis (C), Andrew Romine (UTIL), Rob Refsnyder (UTIL), Sam Travis (1B/LF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Lance Lynn (SP), Corey Kluber (SP), Rafael Montero (RP), Jesse Chavez (RP), Luke Farrell (RP/SP)
I'm not sure what the Rangers are doing right now, but it's not good. I understand the strategy of trying to catch lightning in a bottle, but taking on three failed players (in Dahl, Lowe and Khris Davis) and starting them all is risky to say the least. Not only that, they're likely to bat in the heart of the order (besides Davis who's injured). Not to mention Brock Holt possibly starting at third. What on Earth?! The utility player's most career starts ever was in 2013 with the Boston Red Sox, and it was only 26 games. They also take a flier on Foltynewicz in the rotation (who was run out of Atlanta), as well as restoration projects like Jharel Cotton and Tyson Ross that will probably never sniff the field. The most interesting signing is Japanese hurler Kohei Arihara, but the deal loses most of its luster in Texas. This team is going nowhere right now. Better put, they may actually be going backwards. Give me the under.
OFFSEASON GRADE: D+
O/U PREDICTION: Under 67.5
4. Los Angeles Angels (manager: Joe Maddon)
2020 Record: 26-34, 4th in West
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 83.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Jose Iglesias (SS), Dexter Fowler (OF), Kurt Suzuki (C), Juan Lagares (CF), Phil Gosselin (2B/3B), Jon Jay (CF), Scott Schebler (OF), Juan Graterol (C)
Notable Pitching Additions- Raisel Iglesias (CL), Jose Quintana (SP), Alex Cobb (SP), Alex Claudio (RP), Aaron Slegers (RP), Tony Watson (RP), Steve Cishek (RP), Noe Ramirez (RP), A.J. Ramos (RP), Junior Guerra (RP), Jake Faria (SP)
Notable Re-Signings- None
Notable Hitting Losses- Andrelton Simmons (SS), Jahmai Jones (2B), Jose Briceno (C)
Notable Pitching Losses- Cam Bedrosian (RP), Hansel Robles (RP), Keynan Middleton (RP), Julio Teheran (SP), Matt Andriese (RP), Justin Anderson (RP), Jacob Barnes (RP), Jacob Rhame (RP)
Every year analysts and fans trick themselves into believing the Angels will actually be a playoff contender, and Mike Trout will finally have a chance at a World Series. It NEVER happens. NEVER. They brought in the new general manager Perry Minasian this season and everyone thought maybe they'll sign Trevor Bauer. Maybe they'll be players for a top closer. What do we end up with in Anaheim? Jose Quintana, Alex Cobb and Raisel Iglesias. AKA, second and third tier talent yet again surrounding Trout. Players like Justin Upton and Albert Pujols have become fossils on this roster, and its really killing their chances of ever winning anything. Shohei Ohtani doesn't help either, being that he never plays. He was a worse investment than Jacoby Ellsbury with the New York Yankees, and we all remember how bad that was. The only credit I'll give here is that Minasian has brought in an endless amount of relievers (many of them signed off waivers this week like Watson, Cishek, Ramirez and more). He's trying, because he knows this pitching staff isn't any good, but the truth is these guys are mostly retreads, and if they had anything left they wouldn't have been released in the first place. Outside of Trout, Anthony Rendon and maybe Dylan Bundy, that's actually a tremendous word to describe this roster. The Los Angeles Retreads!
OFFSEASON GRADE: C+
O/U PREDICTION: Under 83.5
3. Houston Astros (manager: Dusty Baker)
2020 Record: 29-31, 2nd in West
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 87.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Jason Castro (C)
Notable Pitching Additions- Pedro Baez (RP), Jake Odorizzi (SP), Ryne Stanek (RP/SP)
Notable Re-Signings- Michael Brantley (OF), Brooks Raley (RP)
Notable Hitting Losses- George Springer (CF), Dustin Garneau (C)
Notable Pitching Losses- Aaron Sanchez (SP), Chris Devenski (RP), Brad Peacock (RP/SP), Joe Biagini (RP), Chase De Jong (SP)
This pick will come as a huge shock, and it's definitely one of the biggest ledges I'll be jumping out onto this season, but I don't think the Astros rebound in 2021 like everyone else. They are currently the betting favorite to win the AL West, but this pitching staff doesn't have me sold. Zack Greinke is getting old (37 to be exact), Lance McCullers Jr. still has not proven to me that he can pitch a full season, and some of the depth like Jose Urquidy and Brandon Bielak has not wowed me (Odorizzi is average also). I like Cristian Javier as a possible breakout, but otherwise this rotation has a ton of question marks. The bullpen isn't Houston's strongsuit anymore either, with Ryan Pressly moving to closer and a bunch of injuries and no-names behind him. Pedro Baez is currently on the Covid list, but I would expect him to be the set-up man when healthy. The lineup still has a lot of talent, but some of these guys really struggled after they were caught cheating (Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa in particular). George Springer is also gone, replaced by steals threat Myles Straw, and players like Kyle Tucker and Yuli Gurriel have never shown me they can hit for an entire season. I'm calling it here, Astros not only finish well under 87.5, they may finish under .500.
OFFSEASON GRADE: C -
O/U PREDICTION: Under 87.5
2. Seattle Mariners (manager: Scott Servais)
2020 Record: 27-33, 3rd in West
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 73
Notable Hitting Additions- Sam Travis (1B/LF)
Notable Pitching Additions- James Paxton (SP), Rafael Montero (CL), Keynan Middleton (RP), Ken Giles (CL-INJ), Chris Flexen (SP), Drew Steckenrider (RP), Domingo Tapia (RP), JT Chargois (RP), Paul Sewald (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Matt Magill (RP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Dee Gordon (2B/CF), Mallex Smith (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Carl Edwards Jr. (RP), Bryan Shaw (RP), Connor Sadzeck (RP), Walker Lockett (SP/RP)
With the Astros dropping down, one team has to rise, and it's not the Angels. My huge turnaround team in 2021 is the Seattle Mariners. What? Why? Don't worry I'll explain myself (and yes I understand their over/under is set at 73 wins). Now keep in mind I expect the AL West to be one of the worst divisions as a whole, so the Mariners may finish second and really not even finish that close to a wildcard spot. I'm thinking they finish around .500 or just over it, a game or two ahead of the falling Stros, which is only an eight win difference from 73. Here's why they'll make this leap. Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto deserves a ton of credit, he's made some fantastic trades for prospects in recent seasons, and those prospects are finally coming to roost. We saw Kyle Lewis win AL Rookie of the Year in 2020. Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn have made the rotation for the second straight campaign. Taylor Trammell is a projected starter on this roster. Evan White is a projected starter on this roster. These aren't even the players I'm most excited about. Ty France is set to start 2021 as the everyday DH, another former Padres prospect that can hit. The prize jewel is Jarred Kelenic, who should be with the team after a brief service time in the minors. Kelenic is a five-tool centerfielder and former top prospect in all of baseball that they swindled from the New York Mets. The return of Paxton also helps stabilize this pitching staff, and Mitch Haniger (also returning) has been crushing the ball this Spring. I may be a season ahead of myself here, but the Mariners will start to turn heads sooner rather than later.
*Disclaimer, I'm not a Mariners fan, nor have I ever rooted for a Seattle team.
OFFSEASON GRADE: B - (with call-ups)
O/U PREDICTION: Over 73, Wildcard Candidate
1. Oakland Athletics (manager: Bob Melvin)
2020 Record: 36-24, 1st in West
FanDuel 2021 O/U Wins: 86.5
Notable Hitting Additions- Elvis Andrus (SS), Mitch Moreland (1B), Jed Lowrie (2B/3B)
Notable Pitching Additions- Trevor Rosenthal (CL), Adam Kolarek (RP), Sergio Romo (RP), Deolis Guerra (RP), Cole Irvin (RP)
Notable Re-Signings- Yusmeiro Petit (RP), Mike Fiers (SP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Marcus Semien (SS), Tommy La Stella (2B/3B), Khris Davis (DH), Robbie Grossman (OF), Jake Lamb (3B), Sheldon Neuse (2B/3B)
Notable Pitching Losses- Liam Hendriks (CL), Joakim Soria (RP), Mike Minor (SP), Ryan Buchter (RP), T.J. McFarland (RP), Daniel Gossett (SP)
The Oakland A's are my default AL West Champion, because there's literally no one else that can win it this season in my opinion. I did pick the Athletics last year as well (actually had them going to the World Series), so I'm not frontrunning on the A's. They still have the top pitching staff in the division, both in the rotation and the pen, and that's important over the course of a long season. Oakland also hasn't lost much from their 2020 campaign, aside from Hendriks (replaced by Rosenthal) and Semien (replaced by Andrus). They got worse in both of those trade-offs, but they also improved on their relief depth yet again AND brought in some supplemental bats like Moreland. It wasn't a great off-season by any means for the Athletics, but they did enough to stay atop this terrible division and narrowly surpass 86.5 wins (although I wouldn't necessarily bet on it). P.S. I like Matt Chapman as a surprise MVP candidate.
OFFSEASON GRADE: C -
O/U PREDICTION: Over 86.5, AL West Champ
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