'21 Fantasy Baseball Prep: 1B/DH, Return of the Sluggers
- Michael Obermuller
- Mar 21, 2021
- 9 min read
Updated: Mar 29, 2021
After the Steroid Era, the Age of Sluggers sort of died out for a decade or so, but 2019's juiced ball scandal as well as the emphasis on "launch angle" hitting, has actually reinvigorated the home run a bit. I'm not necessarily of the opinion that baseball needs more or less homers, but I do enjoy the presence of "the slugger" in the lineup. Natural power hitters make the game more intense, and certainly make the 1B/DH positions more relevant in fantasy. First base in particular was dying out about five years ago, and last year I posed the question of whether or not it could make a comeback in 2020? I wasn't convinced at the time, but I do believe there's a chance that 2021 sparks a return to the Age of Sluggers.
Format: In 2021 I will be using positional rankings by FantasyPros (as of Mar. 20) as I highlight;
targets- deemed an adequate value at projected rank
sleepers- deemed a plus value at projected rank
avoids- deemed a lower value than projected rank
busts- don't draft, period
Position eligibility is based on ESPN Fantasy. Projected points are based on the point settings of an ESPN fantasy league I have been a part of for 10+ years (below), and do not always correlate with the rankings:
Single- 2, Double- 5, Triple- 15, HR- 10(+RBI/Run),
RBI- 5, Runs- 3, Walk - 2, Stolen Base- 3
(negatives) K's- 2, Caught Stealing- 2, GIDP- 5
*Eligible but non-primary first basemen will be listed at the bottom of this article, and discussed in more detail during their own primary position write-up.
Links to Additional 2021 Fantasy Baseball Articles:
TIER 1
**Player Key- Position Rank/Overall Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points) [ADP]
1/13. Freddie Freeman, Braves (1617) [12.0]: (TARGET) The Braves long-time first baseman has been as reliable as they come for the past decade, but he's coming off a career-season in 2020. Sometimes you want to avoid players coming off big years, but Freeman has only batted under .300 once since 2016, and he's at the heart of one of the best lineups in the MLB.
2/15. Cody Bellinger, Dodgers (1462) [15.0]: (CF/OF eligible) (TARGET) Bellinger is only one year removed from his MVP season, and you can't judge him too hard based on a 60-game 2020 campaign. He might even be undervalued at 15th overall, as a true five-tool fantasy player. Bellinger not only has a near-even walk/strikeout ratio, he steals bases, hits for power, RBI and contact, and he's only 25 years old.
3/30. Jose Abreu, White Sox (1282) [37.0]: (AVOID) One thing about Abreu is he NEVER misses games, a rare iron man of the modern age. At the same time, remember what I just mentioned when talking about Freddie Freeman? That we should sometimes be wary of regression after career-seasons? Well Abreu is coming off his two best campaigns in the league and entering his age 34 season. I don't think he'll be bad by any stretch, but last year's AL MVP may be slightly overhyped heading into 2021.
TIER 2
5/47. Pete Alonso, Mets (1300) [51.0]: (TARGET/SLEEPER) While someone like Jose Abreu might be due for a stat correction, Alonso could provide breakout potential at this rank. The Mets slugger had a terrible Sophomore season after breaking the rookie HR record in 2019, but he's looked more like his old self in Spring, crushing three homers already with 11 RBI, five walks and a staggering 1.367 OPS (on-base plus slugging).
6/53. Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (1262) [55.0]: (TARGET/SLEEPER) Like Pete Alonso, Vlad Jr. fits the mold of a no-ceiling young superstar coming off a rough shortened season. Guerrero has been the better contact hitter throughout their short tenures, but Alonso has displayed more pop. Is 2021 finally the year that Vlad unlocks his potential as a true power hitter? Hard to pass up at this rank.
7/55. Luke Voit, Yankees (1176) [57.0]: (AVOID) Voit has really found a home in the Bronx, reviving his career with the Yankees. I like the potential of his bat in this lineup, but last year Voit had a sleeper rank at 1B22, 1B7 is a little rich for my blood. For what it's worth, he's currently hitting .167 in Spring Training zero dingers and seven K's.
8/73. Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (1158) [73.0] (AVOID) Despite hitting over .300 in 2020, Goldschmidt only averaged 6.4 fantasy points per game (PPG). Keep in mind that this average was well below that of Alonso and Guerrero, two players that we already noted as down-years. Goldy even finished 15th in MVP voting, reiterating that it wasn't a bad season for the vet, but it was a bad fantasy performance. At age 33, the former slugger's game is changing, and I'd rather trust the younger bat at 1B.
9/85. Matt Olson, Athletics (1138) [85.0]: (AVOID) I know it was only 60 games, but Olson batted .195 in 2020. He has become too "all or nothing" for me, accruing negatives more often than monster point totals. Expect 25-plus homers from Olson, but also expect 140-plus K's.
10/83. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs (1198) [94.0]: (TARGET) 2020's regression was much more of an outlier for Rizzo, who has batted no less than .273 since 2014. He has also cut his strikeouts in recent seasons, and has not reached 100 K's since 2016. The consistent walks and RBI totals make Rizzo a quality selection this low in the draft. 11/97. Max Muncy, Dodgers (1191) [97.0]: (2B/3B eligible) (TARGET) Just based on the team he's on, and the versatility he has with eligibility at three different positions, it's hard not to like Muncy in fantasy.
13/127. Josh Bell, Nationals (1211) [140.0]: (TARGET) Keep an eye on Josh Bell in your drafts. His ADP is down at 140th overall, which is a bit harsh for someone that was an MVP candidate on the Pittsburgh Pirates a couple years ago. The Nationals lineup isn't great, but it's better than Pittsburgh's. I expect Bell to rebound after the change of scenery and a miserable 2020.
14/123. Dominic Smith, Mets (1022) [116.0]: (LF/OF eligible) (SLEEPER) IF/OF dual-eligibility is so clutch in fantasy, and not as many players have it as they once did. The amount that have it, and also have as good a bat as Dom Smith, is even fewer. It seems the public agrees, as Dom is currently being drafted above his rank according to ADP. The Mets alternate first baseman averaged 9.7 PPG in 2020, and is expected to start in LF after the Mets missed out on George Springer and the DH rule.
15/132. Rhys Hoskins, Phillies (1229) [142.0]: (TARGET) There's no doubt that Hoskins has become a "true three outcomes" type of player the last few years (HR, BB or K), but he still provides an encouraging amount of upside at this rank. Philadelphia is a band-box, and Hoskins should benefit from a schedule that includes other divisions outside the East.
TIER 3
17/136. Eric Hosmer, Padres (1035) [149.0]: (BUST) Hosmer really benefited from the short season, as well as San Diego's hot lineup, in 2020. I don't think there's any chance he averages 10.0 PPG in a full year based on his career output, marking my first bust at the position.
19/151. Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles (1007) [157.0]: (LF/OF eligible) (SLEEPER) Another 24 year old with IF/OF eligibility. Mountcastle hits in a friendly park (Camden Yards), and displayed plenty of potential in 2020. He is expected to start at 1B.
21/160. Miguel Sano, Twins (938) [180.0]
22/167. Christian Walker, Diamondbacks (990) [202.0]: (TARGET) Not sure I would draft him at his rank, but at a 202 ADP I might. Walker put in another sturdy season last year. He's not flashy, but he gets the job done if you miss out on the top tiers... four homers in Spring.
24/195. Carlos Santana, Royals (1193) [216.0]
27/215. Hunter Dozier, Royals (882) [222.0]: (RF/OF eligible)
29/218. Jared Walsh, Angels (884) [213.0]: (BUST) Walsh is more of a late-bloomer than a prospect, and one hot stretch in 2020 doesn't really have me convinced that the Angels first baseman will become some fantasy sleeper.
30/245. Yuli Gurriel, Astros (1075) [266.0]
33/263. Joey Votto, Reds (916) [301.0]: (AVOID) May miss the start of the season with a positive COVID test. Hopefully he's okay obviously, but easily one of the most boring fantasy players at this stage in his career when healthy, this setback shouldn't help.
LONGSHOTS
34/256. Jeimer Candelario, Tigers (908) [286.0]: (3B eligible)
35/262. Ryan McMahon, Rockies (910) [235.0]: (2B/3B eligible) (BUST) I'll keep listing McMahon as a bust year after year until he proves me wrong. Just 5.0 PPG last season.
38/286. Brandon Belt, Giants (921) [349.0]: (LF/OF eligible)
40/298. Rowdy Tellez, Blue Jays (796) [287.0]: (SLEEPER) When Tellez plays, he generally produces (8.7 PPG, 2020). I really like him as a low-end option in this potent Blue Jays lineup.
41/288. Jesus Aguilar, Marlins (765) [384.0]
45/317. Nate Lowe, Rangers (816) [386.0]: (AVOID) There's a good chance Lowe will be involved in some sort of platoon with Texas, if he even starts.
47/345. Evan White, Mariners (679) [443.0]
48/316. Renato Nunez, Tigers (240) [440.0]: (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) Nunez followed up a tremendous 31 HR, 90 RBI 2019 with 12 HRs and 31 RBI in 60 games last season. It was odd to see Baltimore let him go after his emergence, but now we'll see if Nunez can succeed in another city or not.
50/401. Garrett Cooper, Marlins (702) [468.0]
51/357. Colin Moran, Pirates (821) [411.0]
54/434. Mitch Moreland, Athletics (777) [479.0]: (AVOID) Moreland loses most of his fantasy appeal moving to Oakland. He'll most likely split-time at DH and 1B.
58/447. Ji-Man Choi, Rays (734) [484.0]
65/528. Albert Pujols, Angels (476) [497.0]
WATCH LIST
37/270. C.J. Cron, Rockies (900) [255.0]: The home-run hitter is only relevant if he can win the first base job for the Rockies, a battle that is still ongoing. They did just purchase his minor league contract, which is the first step in Cron winning said battle.
39/271. Bobby Dalbec, Red Sox (567) [277.0]: (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) Dalbec has shown raw power in Spring Training (as well as 2020), hitting five home runs already, but he also strikes out a bunch. I'll be curious to see what his role is with Boston in 2021, definitely potential here.
44/299. Andrew Vaughn, White Sox (657) [233.0]: (SLEEPER) This one may not even be a watch list candidate, as it's becoming evident that Vaughn may start the season as the everyday DH. The soon-to-be 23 year old is batting .289 in Spring, with five RBI and seven walks compared to eight strikeouts. He is expected to become a focal piece of the ChiSox young core.
59/465. Michael Chavis, Red Sox (594) [517.0]: (LF/OF eligible) Loses all value with Bobby Dalbec, Kike Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez joining the fold. Unless something changes, Chavis is now an afterthought.
62/732. Asdrubal Cabrera, Diamondbacks (797) [423.0]: (3B eligible) The veteran usually hits, provided he has everyday playing time. It's unclear if he'll get that in Arizona.
DH ONLY
*Disclaimer for all DHs. They generally drop in most drafts, due to their lack of position, and I've noticed a spike in prominent DHs this year. Don't overdraft one, but if you feel you're getting a value that's too good to pass up, make sure you supplement a DH pick with other players that are eligible at different positions (because they'll clog up your UTIL spot all-season long).
1/61. Nelson Cruz, Twins (1055) [87.0]: (AVOID) Nelly Cruz is the Frank Gore of MLB, and seems to be ageless, tallying another 16 HRs in the short season. Odds are he'll produce again in 2021, but if I'm going to draft a DH I'd rather one that's not 40 years old.
2/59. Yordan Alvarez, Astros (1173) [81.0]: (RISKY) The same knees that cost Alvarez the 2020 season are sore again this Spring. I'm beginning to see some unnerving similarities between Alvarez and Yoenis Cespedes, and Yordan doesn't even play the field.
3/64. J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (1105) [91.0]: (AVOID) Martinez is approaching his age-33 season, following his least productive campaign since 2016, and has lost OF eligibility. I would wait to see how far J.D. drops in your draft, ADP is at 91 right now.
4/90. Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (1005) [110.0]: (RISKY SLEEPER) Call me crazy, because Stanton picks up injuries like a normal person catches a cold, but there's so much upside this low in the draft, I might be willing to take the chance on the former MVP.
5/117. Jorge Soler, Royals (906) [144.0]: (AVOID) Without a position, Soler doesn't offer a consistent enough bat with the Royals to spend a draft pick on.
6/128. Franmil Reyes, Indians (864) [151.0]: (BUST) Reyes has never been an everyday MLB player. As a DH, he provides even less fantasy value.
7/348. Willie Calhoun, Rangers (522) [381.0]
8/369. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (663) [361.0]
9/174. Shohei Ohtani, Angels (2041) [172.0]: (SP/P eligible) (BUST) I've never been too fond of Ohtani, or the two-way player idea in baseball. He's been a massive failure so far for Los Angeles, and even when healthy, he takes far too many days off. It's also a pain in the neck to keep track of (for those that don't enjoy checking their fantasy baseball lineups constantly).
10/515. Edwin Encarnacion, Free Agent (N/A) [626.0]
11/436. Khris Davis, Rangers (388) [475.0]: (WATCH LIST) Hard to take a chance on Davis after his putrid 2020 campaign, but this streaky player has fantasy upside if he gets hot.
12/483. Dan Vogelbach, Brewers (732) [671.0]
13/none. Yoenis Cespedes, Free Agent (N/A) [774.0]
1B Eligible, but not considered primary first basemen
4/37. DJ LeMahieu, Yankees (1262) [23.0]: 2B/1B/3B
12/114. Mike Moustakas, Reds (1054) [121.0]: 2B/1B
16/75. Brandon Lowe, Rays (1224) [66.0]: 2B/RF *anticipated, but no ESPN 1B eligibility yet
18/107. Alec Bohm, Phillies (1041) [107.0]: 3B *anticipated, but no ESPN 1B eligibility yet
20/112. Wil Myers, Padres (950) [123.0]: RF *anticipated, but no ESPN 1B eligibility yet
26/169. Trey Mancini, Orioles (1098) [155.0]: RF *anticipated, but no ESPN 1B eligibility yet
28/194. Jake Cronenworth, Padres (677) [187.0]: 2B/1B/SS
42/291. Tommy La Stella, Giants (886) [288.0]: 2B/1B
56/464. Yandy Diaz, Rays (180) [537.0]: 3B *anticipated, but no ESPN 1B eligibility yet
68/531. Marwin Gonzalez, Red Sox (228) [465.0]: 3B/1B/2B
First base had become one of the more shallow positions in 2019 and '20, but it's starting to get deeper again as the new generation begins to take shape. The top two tiers have a ton of potential this draft, but if you miss out on them, I would bypass most of tier three and take a chance on one of the sleepers I listed in the Longshots and Watch List sections instead.
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