'21 Fantasy Baseball Prep: OF, Top 100 Deep Dive
- Michael Obermuller
- Mar 26, 2021
- 13 min read
Updated: Mar 29, 2021
For the outfield position, I've decided to bring back my 2020 theme, OF Top 100. As I sift through Fantasy Pros top 100 primary outfielders, I'll highlight targets, sleepers, avoids and busts as always (my definitions of the terms below). At the end of the ranks, I'll include any players that I deem are worthy of my watchlist, and I'll also go over strategy including which outfield position has the most depth (in my opinion). OF is the great expanse of fantasy baseball, like wide receiver is to football. The only way to make it across an ocean is to start swimming, so let's dive in.
Format: In 2021 I will be using positional rankings by FantasyPros (as of Mar. 26) as I highlight;
targets- deemed an adequate value at projected rank
sleepers- deemed a plus value at projected rank
avoids- deemed a lower value than projected rank
busts- don't draft, period
Position eligibility is based on ESPN Fantasy. Projected points are based on the point settings of an ESPN fantasy league I have been a part of for 10+ years (below), and do not always correlate with the rankings:
Single- 2, Double- 5, Triple- 15, HR- 10(+RBI/Run),
RBI- 5, Runs- 3, Walk - 2, Stolen Base- 3
(negatives) K's- 2, Caught Stealing- 2, GIDP- 5
*Eligible but non-primary outfielders will be listed at the bottom of this article, and discussed in more detail during their own primary position write-up.
Links to Additional 2021 Fantasy Baseball Articles:
TIER 1
**Key- Position Rank/Overall Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points) [ADP]
1/1. Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (1388) [1.0]: (CF/RF eligible) (TARGET) I'm not sure if Acuna is my consensus number one pick in a redraft scenario, but he should definitely go top three. Mookie Betts and Mike Trout both outscored the Braves star by a good amount in 2020, but to be fair Acuna is only 23 years old. In a dynasty or keeper league (that's restarting), Acuna is the pick.
2/2. Mookie Betts, Dodgers (1585) [3.0]: (RF eligible) (TARGET) I'm not quite sure Mookie liked playing in Cali, he only clubbed 16 home runs with 39 RBI at a .562 slugging in 55 games. Yeah, definitely hated it! To me, Betts could easily be the number one pick in the draft. The Dodgers are stacked, he's only 28, and he's had a much better track record staying on the field than Ronald Acuna (who missed games in two out of his first three MLB seasons).
3/4. Juan Soto, Nationals (1627) [4.0]: (LF eligible) (TARGET) Another name we cannot forget about is Juan Soto. No hitter averaged more points per game (PPG) in 2020 than the Nationals superstar at 12.6 PPG. Soto is an unfathomable 22 years of age, younger than Ronald Acuna! It's hard to leave Soto out of the number one overall conversation, being that he may be the best pure hitter in the sport, but I have a feeling most managers will still draft Acuna, Betts and maybe even Trout before Soto. Last season in 47 games he batted .351 with a .490 OBP and a .695 slugging... wow.
4/5. Mike Trout, Angels (1646) [5.0]: (CF eligible) (TARGET) If I did a big board rank (which I don't), these four outfielders would be my top four picks in the draft (sorry Fernando Tatis Jr.). Since 2012, Mike Trout has not lost a step. Just think about that for a second. The last NINE seasons he has finished in the TOP FIVE or better in MVP voting. Top five for nine straight seasons!! He has won the award three times. Don't sleep on Trout just because he's 29 (which isn't even old in baseball).
5/9. Christian Yelich, Brewers (1378) [13.0]: (LF eligible) (TARGET) Every writer has Yelich as their top bouce-back candidate in 2021, an easy pick when you consider he won the MVP in 2018 and finished second in the voting in 2019. Personally, there's no shot I'm taking Yelich over the four names above him, but at OF5 I have no issue with the Brewer. 2020 does seem like an outlier, but at the same time, so do his MVP campaigns. 6/14. Bryce Harper, Phillies (1438) [18.0]: (RF eligible) (AVOID) I've never actually drafted Harper in a fantasy league, and I've been doing this a long time (longer than he's been in the league at least). He's just not my type of player, and you generally have to spend a low first or high second on him. For what it's worth, he has lived up to his contract in Philadelphia so far, but I'll still draft Cody Bellinger ahead of him all day, every day.
7/15. Cody Bellinger, Dodgers (1462) [15.0]: (CF/1B/IF eligible) (TARGET/SLEEPER) I agree with his higher ADP than Bryce Harper, but I would even consider Cody in the first round. Bellinger as a centerfielder is just unfair in fantasy, and the dual OF/IF eligibility can come up clutch in a pinch. Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting MVP .300 average Bellinger in 2021, but the potential is there. What I am expecting is a lot of HR's and RBI, a decent amount of doubles and steals, almost as many walks as strikeouts, and player that rarely misses games.
TIER 2
8/33. Kyle Tucker, Astros (1325) [39.0]: (LF eligible) (BUST) Tucker really broke out in 2020, and I credit those like my brother that drafted him as a sleeper. Now at an OF8 rank, I feel he's a bit over-ranked. We have yet to see Tucker do it for a full season (he actually played more games in 2020 than any prior campaign), and while I like that he cut his strikeout rate a bit last year, it was still up over 20 percent. I'll let someone else take the risk on Tucker here.
9/37. Marcell Ozuna, Braves (1349) [42.0]: (LF eligible) (TARGET) Maybe my best draft pick of 2020, Ozuna actually finished as the 60-game season's OF1 in total points. He definitely won't perform as well this time around, but I still really like him in this Braves lineup. In an average season, Ozuna plays 140-plus games and drives in 85-plus RBI.
— Eloy Jimenez, White Sox (0) [-]: (LF eligible) (BUST/OUT) News dropped today that Eloy Jimenez will miss five to six months with a ruptured pectoral tendon. Sorry early drafters!
10/40. Luis Robert, White Sox (997) [37.0]: (CF eligible) (AVOID) I'm not sure I want Eloy's teammate either. Robert was an easy sleeper projection before his rookie campaign, but he only averaged 6.4 PPG. His hype has only grown since, but I still see a massive strikeout number and player that has yet to fully mature (poor Spring numbers too). Phenomenal prospect, but I'll pass in 2021. *Dynasty and keeper leagues obviously call for a different philosophy.
12/43. George Springer, Blue Jays (1364) [43.0]: (CF eligible) (TARGET) Springer does have an oblique strain that will probably keep him out for the start of the season, but assuming it doesn't linger, the former Astro is a consistent bat at this ADP... obliques are scary in fantasy though.
13/44. Starling Marte, Marlins (1080) [51.0]: (CF eligible) (BUST) I'm sorry, but who's actually drafting 32-year old Starling Marte over Aaron Judge, Michael Conforto, Trent Grisham and more?
14/48. Aaron Judge, Yankees (1011) [45.0]: (RF eligible) (RISKY SLEEPER) We all know the deal with Judge by now. He's one of the best hitters in baseball if he's healthy, but that IF is now Aaron Judge-sized with the amount of time he's missed. At this ADP, I'm willing to take the chance on the home run hitter that once launched 52.
15/52. Randy Arozarena, Rays (977) [58.0]: (LF eligible) (RISKY/AVOID) I don't know what to make of Arozarena's torrid postseason run, partially because I first heard about him as a sleeper prospect to watch when he was still on St. Louis. Part of me wonders if that breakout will continue, but the other part of me knows he'll probably drop back down to Earth. His terrible Spring Training numbers make me lean towards the latter.
16/61. Michael Conforto, Mets (1195) [68.0]: (RF eligible) (SLEEPER) Rather than take the chance on Randy Arozarena or Aaron Judge, you might prefer the safer route, and that's Michael Conforto. The Mets core outfielder is streaky, but his numbers generally level out. Expect 7.0 to 8.0 PPG, but in a contract year that number could spike. 17/65. Nick Castellanos, Reds (1185) [80.0]: (RF eligible) (TARGET) Bad 2020, but a good Spring Training so far. In Cincinnati, Castellanos is a candidate to rebound this season, especially if his ADP drops down to 80.0 range.
18/70. Charlie Blackmon, Rockies (1146) [70.0]: (RF eligible) (TARGET) Tricky one, Blackmon is 34 years old now, but he's also never been ranked this low and his game has yet to decline. He averaged over 31 homers from 2016-19, and despite only blasting six last year, he tallied 42 ribeyes in 59 games anyway. Also hasn't batted below .280 since his rookie season in 2011.
19/72. Trent Grisham, Padres (1252) [72.0]: (CF eligible) (SLEEPER) Big-time sleeper for me last draft, ended up taking him in both leagues I'm in. Grisham does strikeout a fair amount, but if you look at the trend in his statistics, 2020 may have only been the beginning. 51 games in 2019 compared to 59 in '20; 20 point increase in batting average, OBP and slugging up, hard-hit ball percentage up, K percentage down, walk percentage up, and nine extra steals last season.
20/75. Austin Meadows, Rays (1034) [89.0]: (LF eligible) (RISKY) Part of me thinks this is a great buy-low opportunity, but the stats don't back that belief. Strikeout percentage has steadily increased as slugging has tanked. Meadows is still young though, could turn things around.
22/80. Teoscar Hernandez, Blue Jays (1059) [82.0]: (RF eligible) (AVOID) Streaky power bat, I would prefer Austin Meadows choosing between the two.
23/88. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Blue Jays (1018) [84.0]: (LF eligible) (BUST) Crowded roster, and I'm not confident about Lourdes Gurriel if he begins to slump.
26/94. Eddie Rosario, Indians (1251) [118.0]: (LF eligible) (BUST) All or nothing swing and I'm not crazy about the move to Cleveland this offseason, he'll get less AB's in this lineup.
TIER 3
Going to start doing more of a lightning round skim-through from here on out. If I skip a player, it generally means my opinion is either indifferent, or I'm avoiding. Sleepers and busts I'll point out.
29/107. Tommy Pham, Rays (906) [129.0]: (LF eligible)
30/111. Byron Buxton, Twins (941) [123.0]: (CF eligible)
32/113. Wil Myers, Padres (950) [121.0]: (RF eligible) (BUST) Career .254 hitter with a leap to .288 and 40 RBI in 2020? It's very unlikely these stats carry over to an entire season.
33/115. Alex Verdugo, Red Sox (1017) [131.0]: (RF/LF eligible) (SLEEPER) His stats have yet to really translate in fantasy (6.5 PPG last year despite .308 average), but age-25 Verdugo seems to have a bunch of untapped potential ready to burst. Boston should be better than last season, this could be the year.
34/116. Mike Yastrzemski, Giants (1252) [113.0]: (RF/CF eligible) (SLEEPER) Yastrzemski was not a huge prospect and this could definitely backfire, but sometimes you just have a feeling about a player and you have to run with it. He's a gamer, and he proved it in 2020 with 9.7 PPG.
36/124. Michael Brantley, Astros (1155) [143.0]: (LF eligible) (SLEEPER) Brantley is a steady .300 hitter, and his injuries have actually gotten better with age (somehow). Steal at this rank.
38/129. Ramon Laureano, Athletics (936) [144.0]: (CF eligible)
39/132. Joey Gallo, Rangers (1075) [130.0]: (RF eligible) (AVOID) I was loving on the potential of Gallo as a centerfielder last season. In ESPN he's now RF only, making him just another slugger.
41/141. Victor Robles, Nationals (754) [156.0]: (CF eligible) (RISKY) Buy-low option, but I'd only draft him if he really plummets (lower than his current ADP).
43/142. Ian Happ, Cubs (1180) [154.0]: (CF/LF eligible)
44/145. Anthony Santander, Orioles (1188) [153.0]: (RF eligible) (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) Raked last year with an average of 11.1 PPG. Should gain more OF eligibility than RF.
45/146. Kyle Lewis, Mariners (948) [137.0]: (CF eligible) (SLEEPER) From what I've seen, the sky is the limit for last year's AL Rookie of the Year. Awesome value for Lewis at this outfield rank.
46/152. Max Kepler, Twins (1116) [166.0]: (RF eligible) (TARGET) Solid consistent hitter. Definitely worthy of this draft status in a Twins lineup that's productive.
49/156. A.J. Pollock, Dodgers (979) [179.0]: (LF/CF eligible)
50/155. Dylan Carlson, Cardinals (1034) [159.0]: (RF/LF/CF eligible) (POTENTIAL SLEEPER) The Cardinals top prospect was a total bust during his rookie season. Having an average Spring Training right now, but could be worth taking a shot on.
51/164. Andrew McCutchen, Phillies (1125) [208.0]: (LF eligible)
52/162. Trey Mancini, Orioles (1098) [149.0]: (RF eligible) (SLEEPER) Mancini has successfully beaten cancer, and if that's not reason enough to want him on your team, check out his Spring Training numbers since returning (.342 average, .500 slugging, two homers).
54/170. Kyle Schwarber, Nationals (965) [186.0]: (LF eligible) (AVOID) Schwarber needed a positive change of scenery after career-lows in 2020, but Washington may not be it.
56/172. Clint Frazier, Yankees (737) [168.0]: (RF eligible) (POTENTIAL SLEEPER) The main issue with Frazier will be playing time. Manager Aaron Boone stated that Frazier is the starter, but with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton (primary DH), Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman and potential DH's like Miguel Andujar all in the mix, one slump could be the end of Frazier.
57/181. Jesse Winker, Reds (806) [227.0]: (LF eligible)
59/193. Andrew Benintendi, Royals (1000) [225.0]: (LF eligible) (BUST) With the way he's been hitting in recent years (not to mention he's leaving Fenway Park), no chance I draft him.
60/199. Mark Canha, Athletics (994) [236.0]: (RF/LF eligible)
62/203. Aaron Hicks, Yankees (952) [228.0]: (CF eligible) (SLEEPER) Injuries are always a concern with Hicks, but I love his potential in this lineup when healthy. At this ADP, why not?
63/213. Nick Senzel, Reds (796) [241.0]: (CF eligible) (POTENTIAL SLEEPER) Throw 2020 out, Senzel is finally starting full-time and the ceiling is pretty high assuming he manages his strikeouts.
65/208. Mitch Haniger, Mariners (860) [240.0]: (SLEEPER) Haniger was an All-Star before all the injuries and surgeries. Now his value is at a premium if you feel he'll be the same player upon his return. I do, and his Spring Training numbers back me up (.275, three HR, 8 RBI, .600 slugging sounds like the old Mitch to me!).
66/226. Chris Taylor, Dodgers (945) [210.0]: (LF/2B/SS/IF eligible) (AVOID) Too much competition on this roster, I don't see Taylor hitting these projections.
TIER 4
67/217. Lorenzo Cain, Brewers (715) [266.0]: (CF eligible)
68/222. Raimel Tapia, Rockies (993) [222.0]: (LF eligible)
69/225. Leody Taveras, Rangers (661) [237.0]: (CF eligible) No real opinion on him but if you're wondering who he is, he should bat lead-off for Texas. Could steal 30 bases according to some projections, but he's not much of a fantasy player otherwise (probably avoid).
70/228. Brandon Nimmo, Mets (922) [246.0]: (LF/CF/RF eligible) (SLEEPER) Nimmo plays all three outfield spots, he's never going to kill you with negatives because of his on-base percentage, and he's been red-hot this Spring (playing with something to prove after the Mets openly went after George Springer in free agency). Nimmo was a five-tool prospect that failed to live up to expectations defensively, his production at the plate has never been the issue.
72/234. David Peralta, Diamondbacks (945) [273.0]: (LF eligible)
73/258. Joc Pederson, Cubs (1124) [263.0]: (LF eligible) (SLEEPER) Joc is TORCHING Spring Training with his new team. Between that and playing time no longer being an issue, I'd definitely buy-low on Pederson here.
76/256. Randal Grichuk, Blue Jays (944) [224.0]: (CF eligible)
77/262. Bryan Reynolds, Pirates (908) [298.0]: (LF/CF eligible)
78/267. Kole Calhoun, Diamondbacks (877) [282.0]: (RF eligible)
79/255. Victor Reyes, Tigers (841) [256.0]: (LF/CF/RF eligible) (AVOID) Has some promise, but I don't think he's ready to be a fantasy performer yet.
80/257. Austin Hays, Orioles (1014) [277.0]: (LF/CF eligible) (AVOID) Hays may reach 1,000 points if he plays the entire season, but at a very low average PPG. I doubt it though.
83/307. Adam Eaton, White Sox (782) [315.0]: (RF eligible)
84/259. Manuel Margot, Rays (730) [278.0]: (LF/CF/RF eligible)
85/308. Justin Upton, Angels (720) [308.0]: (LF eligible) (BUST) At this point in his career, Upton is no longer fantasy relevant (age 33).
87/279. Alex Dickerson, Giants (937) [294.0]
89/305. David Dahl, Rangers (658) [365.0]: (BUST) I'm not sure if it's the injuries that ruined Dahl's swing, but his power is totally gone (exit velocity and hard-hit percentages have fallen to harsh lows) and his strikeout percentage has gone up every year he's been in the MLB. Coupled with the risk of injury, I've lost my faith in Dahl.
LONGSHOTS/HONORABLE MENTIONS
90/293. Jon Berti, Marlins (579) [284.0]: (CF/2B/IF eligible)
91/357. Avisail Garcia, Brewers (523) [427.0]: (CF eligible) (AVOID) You may be thinking that Avisail Garcia is a steal at this value, but his playing time will be limited in 2021 after the Jackie Bradley Jr. signing (ironically one rank below him).
92/329. Jackie Bradley Jr., Brewers (830) [311.0]: (CF eligible)
94/361. Adam Duvall, Marlins (746) [370.0]: (LF/RF eligible) (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) If Duvall can hold a starting job, he has enough power potential to make fantasy rosters.
95/328. Corey Dickerson, Marlins (909) [376.0]: (LF eligible)
98/345. Hunter Renfroe, Red Sox (734) [348.0]: (RF eligible)
99/353. Jason Heyward, Cubs (822) [353.0]: (RF eligible)
104/363. Tyler O'Neill, Cardinals (720) [382.0]: (LF eligible) O'Neill is having a good Spring, but can it make up for his poor 2020 and save his spot in the Cards lineup?
120/380. Gregory Polanco, Pirates (759) [397.0]: (RF eligible)
125/566. Nomar Mazara, Tigers (713) [551.0]: (RF eligible) (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) His rank is low down because he may not start, but am I missing something? Why are Robbie Grossman, JaCoby Jones and Victor Reyes starting over Mazara? Hopefully Detroit gets this figured out.
WATCH LIST
71/232. Jarred Kelenic, Mariners (687) [197.0]: (CF eligible) (SLEEPER) The former Mets top prospect comically traded for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano may start the year in the minors, but you'll probably want to draft him anyway. He's that good.
82/270. Alex Kirilloff, Twins (682) [252.0]: (RF eligible) Kirilloff is a big-time slugger, but apparently he'll start the season at the alternate site until his defense improves.
97/322. Myles Straw, Astros (612) [314.0]: (CF eligible) The stolen base potential is certainly there for Straw (projected 39 steals on ESPN), but the bat is not. I don't see much fantasy potential here unless the 26-year old begins to display more slugging.
100/368. Cristian Pache, Braves (743) [320.0]: (LF eligible) Pache is batting .172 in Spring, so I doubt he'll nab that Atlanta starting job that fantasy managers were hoping for.
101/341. Sam Hilliard, Rockies (838) [383.0]: (LF/CF/RF eligible) 2020 was a terrible debut for Hilliard, strikeouts have been a problem so far.
106/333. Jo Adell, Angels (266) [342.0]: (RF eligible) Jo Adell's ascension is not yet upon us, 2021 is another year that will begin in the minors.
112/385. Yasiel Puig, Free Agent (n/a) [362.0]: (RF eligible) At this point in his career it really depends where Puig signs (and when), no longer a guaranteed fantasy performer.
OF Eligible, but not considered outfielders by trade
11/42. Whit Merrifield, Royals (1192) [41.0]: 2B/RF/CF/IF
21/74. Brandon Lowe, Rays (1224) [64.0]: 2B/RF
24/63. J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (1105) [91.0]: *currently DH eligible only
25/89. Cavan Biggio, Blue Jays (1161) [60.0]: 2B/3B/RF
27/93. Jeff McNeil, Mets (1155) [101.0]: 2B/LF/IF
31/69. Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (1248) [71.0]: 2B *may gain OF eligibility again
35/85. Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (1005) [110.0]: *currently DH eligible only
37/126. Dominic Smith, Mets (1022) [116.0]: 1B/LF/IF
42/117. Jorge Soler, Royals (906) [141.0]: *currently DH eligible only
47/147. Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles (1007) [155.0]: 1B/LF/IF
48/122. Franmil Reyes, Indians (864) [150.0]: *currently DH eligible only
53/157. Tommy Edman, Cardinals (977) [145.0]: 3B/SS/RF
55/167. Dylan Moore, Mariners (865) [152.0]: 2B/LF/RF
58/178. Nick Solak, Rangers (978) [180.0]: 2B/LF/CF
64/211. Hunter Dozier, Royals (882) [219.0]: 1B/RF
86/285. Daulton Varsho, Diamondbacks (284) [230.0]: C/CF
88/273. Garrett Hampson, Rockies (715) [283.0]: 2B/CF
96/312. Jurickson Profar, Padres (770) [325.0]: 2B/LF
The outfield positions are actually pretty balanced this season, although CF generally has less power bats and depth than the corner OF positions. There are plenty of sleepers in these ranks, so don't feel like you have to jump on the outfield positions early when there are less players to go around elsewhere (I'm not saying don't draft one first round if you get a top flight talent, but don't reach in the middle rounds on guys you're not thrilled about). And don't be afraid to look beyond those middle tiers towards sleepers that are lower down. Remember; if you do the research, you can determine your own projections, and most times expectations are meant to be broken.
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