'21 Fantasy Baseball Prep: RP, Clout Rising
- Michael Obermuller
- Mar 19, 2021
- 10 min read
Updated: Mar 29, 2021
Relief pitchers have become more and more valuable in fantasy baseball as the years have gone by, being that certain teams now utilize relievers as often as some catchers or platoon hitters start per week. For me, there are three crucial factors to look at when drafting RP's;
Do they play for a winning team? If their team is never winning, it becomes a lot harder for the pitcher to get holds and saves.
How often are they used in high-leverage situations? You want your RP's to be the managers go-to-guys. They don't have to be the closer, but they do have to pitch often to warrant a roster spot, and in as many hold or save situations as possible.
What is their K/9 average? Relievers don't have too many ways to accumulate points, so strikeouts are even more necessary here than they are with starters.
Format: In 2021 I will be using positional rankings by FantasyPros (as of Mar. 19) as I highlight;
targets- deemed an adequate value at projected rank
sleepers- deemed a plus value at projected rank
avoids- deemed a lower value than projected rank
busts- don't draft, period
Position eligibility is based on ESPN Fantasy. Projected points are based on the point settings of an ESPN fantasy league I have been a part of for 10+ years (below), and do not always correlate with the rankings:
Inning Pitched- 3, Strikeout- 2, Quality Start- 5, Win- 10, Save- 10, Hold- 5
(BONUSES) Complete Game- 5, Shutout- 10, No Hitter- 15, Perfect Game- 20
(NEGATIVES) Hit- 1, Earned Run- 2, Walk- 1, Hit By Pitch- 1, Loss- 5, Blown Save- 5
*Eligible but non-primary relief pitchers will be listed at the bottom of this article, and discussed in more detail during their own primary position write-up.
Links to Additional 2021 Fantasy Baseball Articles:
TIER 1- Lock Down Closer (winning team)
**Player Key- Position Rank/Overall Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points) [ADP]
1/65. Josh Hader, Brewers (935.2) [58.0]: (TARGET) For the second straight season, Hader holds number one rank for relief pitchers, and there's no reason to think he may regress. Since 2017, Hader has been dominant as a high-leverage reliever. His career 15.3 strikeouts per nine ratio is nearly unmatched, and his rubber arm allows him to pitch more often than most.
2/66. Liam Hendriks, White Sox (868.9) [56.0]: (TARGET) I value relief pitchers more than the average fantasy manager, but I still never like to be the first person to draft a less-valued position. I LOVE Hendricks this year, and you can wait till someone grabs Hader to know exactly when you should draft him. The White Sox are on the rise, Hendriks pitches often and should get plenty of save opportunities, and his K/9 has been 13.1 the past two seasons (ERA also 1.80 or lower from 2019-20).
3/78. Aroldis Chapman, Yankees (852.5) [72.0]: (AVOID) I'll be honest, I have not been a fan of Chapman's in fantasy for some time now. He always seems to have some sort of injury or suspension issue (this year it's only a two-game suspension), but my main concern is the way the Yankees use him. He pretty much only pitches in save opportunities, or the occasional blowout, and is prone to monstrous negatives when he has a bad outing. The modern closer pitches more often than Chapman, and this ranking is a little high for someone used so sparingly.
4/91. Edwin Diaz, Mets (760.2) [84.0]: (AVOID) As a Mets fan I really hope Diaz finds his game, but there are so many risks drafting him this high. NYM should be a good team, yes, but how long will the Mets closer keep his job with plenty of talented relievers behind him (Trevor May, Dellin Betances, Seth Lugo- injured)? Diaz had a bounce-back shortened season, pitching to a 1.75 ERA and an outstanding 17.5 K/9, but his WHIP was still up (1.247) and he lost his closer duties for a large chunk of the campaign.
5/106. Raisel Iglesias, Angels (730.6) [95.0]: (BUST) Iglesias had six blown saves in 2019 and a 4.16 ERA. He had a rough start to 2020 as well, but then corrected the campaign finishing with eight saves off a 2.74 ERA and a career-low WHIP. The Angels closing job should be Iglesias' to lose, but I'm a little wary of his leash on a new franchise, and there are more reliable options ranked below the former-Reds RP.
6/120. James Karinchak, Indians (842.2) [98.0]: (TARGET) Karinchak was one of my watch list sleepers at reliever in 2020, so you can bet that I like him even more in 2021 now that he's Cleveland's presumptive closer. The 25 year old arm had one of the best K/9 ratios in the game last season at a filthy 17.7 ratio (that's 53 K's in 27 innings pitched).
7/123. Kenley Jansen, Dodgers (716.6) [118.0]: (TARGET) As consistent and reliable as RPs come, Jansen is always a solid bet as the closer of the best team in baseball.
TIER 2- Should Keep Closer Job (average team)
8/131. Ryan Pressly, Astros (754.7) [108.0]: (AVOID) Pressly may be trending up, but the Houston Astros are trending down, and there's no guarantee that he'll be the only pitcher in line for save opportunities. Not my favorite tier two option.
9/138. Brad Hand, Nationals (739.9) [113.0]: (TARGET) Hand has become a trustworthy man for saves and his role on the Nationals should be no different than it was with the Indians.
11/153. Kirby Yates, Blue Jays (768.8) [131.0]: (INJURED-OUT) Kirby Yates' run of invincibility ended in 2020, as the journeyman suffered a season-ending elbow injury. Now the question is whether or not a healthy Yates recaptures his dominance of the last few years, or returns to his status as an irrelevant reliever. EDIT- SEASON ENDING TOMMY JOHN SURGERY.
12/155. Nick Anderson, Rays (771.9) [151.0]: (TARGET) Although Anderson doesn't always close games for Tampa, he pitches in enough high-leverage spots to be a fantasy All-Star. His stuff has been nasty since his 2019 renaissance, averaging 15.0 K/9 during that span.
13/161. Trevor Rosenthal, Athletics (854.4) [133.0]: (TARGET) It may be challenging for Rosenthal to repeat his 2020 numbers, but Oakland was a nice landing spot for the closer. It's another small market where the A's win a decent amount close games, and provide plenty of fantasy opportunity for their relievers. Rosenthal only blew one save in 2020, and his 14.5 K/9, 0.845 WHIP and 13.8 fantasy points per game (PPG) are worth betting on.
15/178. Craig Kimbrel, Cubs (665.6) [167.0]: (BUST) The former top closer in Boston and Atlanta has lost his control since signing with Chicago. His WHIP is up over 1.430 the past two seasons, and his ERA has followed it, ballooning over 5.25. Kimbrel still strikes batters out, but he's too much of a liability to draft in this tier.
TIER 3- Job Up For Grabs/Key Set-Ups
16/173. Devin Williams, Brewers (675.9) [161.0]: (SLEEPER) The 26 year old Williams was absolutely electric in 2020. I was lucky enough to snatch him up in a couple leagues and he never disappointed, with a lethal 17.7 K/9 and 0.630 WHIP. Williams only allowed one earned run over the course of his 27 innings pitched (0.33 ERA) last year, and should continue his role as Hader's number two in 2021.
19/193. Rafael Montero, Mariners (579.3) [175.0]: (BUST) One decent 2020 season with Texas doesn't have me convinced. Montero was a failed prospect with the Mets who is now having a rough Spring Training. He may not last long as the Mariners closer.
20/213. Alex Colome, Twins (531.8) [166.0]: (AVOID) There are already some questions about how manager Rocco Baldelli might use his bullpen. Colome should be the closer, but he has yet to gain Baldelli's trust and it may be a rotation in the late innings because of that.
22/200. Taylor Rogers, Twins (661.4) [186.0]: (AVOID) The main man Colome should split time with. Rogers doesn't hold as much value as a set-up with a lower K/9 around 10.0.
23/203. Drew Pomeranz, Padres (620.6) [188.0]: (SLEEPER) Some forearm tightness in Spring Training, but so long as it's nothing serious Pomeranz has become a fantasy stud out of the pen.
25/228. Richard Rodriguez, Pirates (614.6) [208.0]: (AVOID) Let's assume Rodriguez nails down this closer job. Best case scenario, he's getting save opportunities for the worst team in the MLB. The alternative scenario could be bust territory.
26/224. Matt Barnes, Red Sox (628.7) [218.0]: (AVOID) Unlikely to close for Boston. High-leverage reliever that has a tendency to implode at inopportune times.
27/242. Will Smith, Braves (772.6) [189.0]: (SLEEPER) I'm surprised by this rank and Smith's ADP supports my confusion. Mark Melancon, Darren O'Day and Shane Greene are no longer on the Braves roster, meaning Will Smith should be utilized more heavily in 2021. Atlanta is one of the better teams in the league, and he's their go-to RP. K/9 could be better, but Smith's career 3.56 ERA over eight seasons speaks for itself.
28/271. Jordan Hicks, Cardinals (535.4) [214.0]: (AVOID) Good stuff, but coming off major injury with no clear role as of now, better to wait a year on Hicks.
29/259. Giovanny Gallegos, Cardinals (427.9) [270.0]: (AVOID) Gallegos may be the closer for now, but there are too many challengers in this St. Louis pen to trust him long-term.
30/270. Jose Leclerc, Rangers (555.6) [271.0]: (TARGET) The Rangers may not win a ton of games, but Leclerc is the clear closer after the preseason injury to runner-up Jonathan Hernandez.
31/260. Amir Garrett, Reds (470.8) [253.0]: (TARGET) Favorite for the closer job in Cincinnati, but is dealing with forearm tightness right now.
32/262. Mark Melancon, Padres (559.6) [260.0]: (RISKY SLEEPER) Melancon is a sleeper IF he wins the closer job. San Diego is now one of the better clubs in the National League, and we've seen Kirby Yates rise to glory at the exact same post. Melancon has a much sturdier resume, but if he loses out to Keone Kela or Emilio Pagan, he turns from sleeper to bust just like that.
35/269. Archie Bradley, Phillies (578.6) [252.0]: (AVOID) Maybe the Phillies stadium is to blame, but no matter who they seem to sign to pitch the late innings, they never turn out well. I'll avoid that curse and fade Bradley this season (Neris too).
36/272. Hector Neris, Phillies (560.9) [303.0]
37/278. Greg Holland, Royals (494.9) [257.0]: (SLEEPER) I know that it's the Royals, but Holland turned back the clocks last year with a 1.91 ERA. Strikeouts are not his strong suit, but getting a reliable closer this late in the draft is hard to pass up.
39/277. Joakim Soria, Diamondbacks (685.6) [267.0]: (BUST) A fly-ball/high walk percentage reliever headed to Chase Field? I could see this going poorly.
42/309. Chris Martin, Braves (520.7) [330.0]
43/291. Diego Castillo, Rays (467.9) [279.0]
44/313. Anthony Bass, Marlins (480.8) [299.0]: (SLEEPER) Currently winning the closer job in Miami. Keep an eye on the Spring Training battle because Don Mattingly doesn't use a committee.
45/306. Daniel Bard, Rockies (586.6) [290.0]: (AVOID) Coming off an impressive year, but I make it a point to avoid Colorado closers, especially with the way their franchise is headed.
LONGSHOTS- Middle Relievers/Closing Options
46/357. Yimi Garcia, Marlins (474.8) [312.0]: Rough Spring, losing out in closer battle.
47/349. Stefan Crichton, Diamondbacks (421.5) [297.0]: (WATCH LIST) Crichton is not a strikeout pitcher, but he may win the closer job over Joakim Soria anyway. Keep an eye on him.
48/353. Jordan Romano, Blue Jays (314.8) [353.0]
50/308. Freddy Peralta, Brewers (481.3) [318.0]
51/355. Seth Lugo, Mets (398.5) [390.0]: (SP eligible) (WATCH LIST) Injured to start the season, but always a useful fantasy weapon when healthy. Lugo could push Edwin Diaz for the closer role once he returns, which could be anywhere from late-April to early-May.
52/337. Pete Fairbanks, Rays (571.5) [328.0]: High-strikeout arm, but what role will he serve in the Rays deep bullpen?
53/340. Jake McGee, Giants (609.2) [314.0]: (SLEEPER) If manager Gabe Kapler elects to use a closer, it'll likely be Jake McGee, who pitched well with the Dodgers in 2020.
55/356. Jake Diekman, Athletics (550.9) [293.0]
56/416. Aaron Bummer, White Sox (292.9) [355.0]
57/409. Lucas Sims, Reds (539.3) [360.0]: (WATCH LIST) Closer option for the Reds, but his chances have been hampered by a Spring Training injury.
58/389. A.J. Puk, Athletics (489.5) [331.0]: Sleeper potential if he rejoins the Athletics rotation.
60/382. Adam Ottavino, Red Sox (697.3) [358.0]: (SLEEPER) Ottavino's "poor" 2020 campaign was exaggerated. A couple bad outings inflated his ERA over the short season and he could easily become the Red Sox closer in 2021. Has held a K/9 over 10.0 since 2015.
62/394. Trevor May, Mets (544.6) [357.0]
63/378. Emilio Pagan, Padres (544.7) [403.0]: (SLEEPER POTENTIAL) You want the Padres closer, whoever that may end up being. Pagan is currently one of the frontrunners.
WATCH LIST
64/384. Blake Treinen, Dodgers (480.9) [364.0]: Former closer on a top team, but only useful if Kenley Jansen (and possibly others) are unavailable.
66/434. Bryan Garcia, Tigers (417.9) [444.0]: In the closer mix for the Tigers, but doesn't hold much fantasy value otherwise.
67/452. Michael Lorenzen, Reds (585.2) [389.0]: Sleeper potential as the Reds fifth starter.
70/451. Sean Doolittle, Reds (394.7) [612.0]: Doolittle's closing (and fantasy) days are probably over, unless he has a resurgence in Cincy.
71/406. Chad Green, Yankees (471.3) [362.0]: (SLEEPER) Green is always a decent fantasy option. The long-time Yankee pitches multiple innings at a time and strikes out batters. The Zack Britton injury could also push Green into the spotlight early in the season.
73/615. Gregory Soto, Tigers (267.9) [486.0]: Another candidate for the Detroit closing duties.
83/404. Roberto Osuna, Free Agent (N/A) [287.0]: Osuna has not been signed by an MLB club yet, and is also recovering from an elbow injury that could require Tommy John surgery.
107/none. Jeremy Jeffress, Free Agent (N/A): Jeffress was released by the Washington Nationals near the start of camp due to "personnel reasons." He has yet to resurface, but could provide fantasy value if he signs with a team that needs a closer. Jeffress had a 1.54 ERA in 22 appearances in 2020.
108/530. Keone Kela, Padres (167.3) [722.0]: In the mix for Padres closer job.
110/544. Luis Patino, Rays (638.7) [402.0]: Minors to start the year, but may start for the Rays at some point this season. Sleeper potential as a RP/SP.
none. Matt Andriese, Red Sox (535.1) [N/A]: An oddly high ESPN projection, but as of now Andriese holds little to no fantasy value, unless of course he nails down Boston's closing duties.
OUT
69/517. Hunter Harvey, Orioles (422.7) [335.0]: (AVOID) Placed on 60-day IL.
78/485. Zack Britton, Yankees (212.3) [363.0]: (AVOID) Out long-term, three months minimum.
none. Ken Giles, Mariners (N/A): Giles is injured and will not pitch in 2021.
RP Eligible, but not considered relief pitchers by trade
103/538. Cal Quantrill, Indians (416.9) [406.0]: RP/SP eligible
118/542. Adrian Morejon, Padres (416.7) [570.0]: SP/RP eligible
205/none. Joe Ross, Nationals (382.6) [690.0}: *anticipated, but no ESPN SP eligibilty yet
none. Trevor Cahill, Pirates (527.5) [N/A]: SP/RP eligible
none. Alex Young, Diamondbacks (439.5) [N/A]: SP/RP eligible
Two things I noticed about the RP market this year. One, there are way less starters that have eligibility as RPs in 2021, sites have seemed to cut down on pitcher dual-eligibility (or at least ESPN fantasy has). Two, relievers are getting drafted higher than normal. Most relief pitcher ADPs I'm seeing are lower than the player's projected rank, meaning RP clout and popularity is on the rise. With the way the league has changed over the past five years, relievers have more fantasy value than ever before. Remember our three key factors when determining targets, but also be careful not to let this RP market slip by you in your 2021 drafts.
Kommentare