NFL Halfway Point: Power Ranks & Predictions for 2020's Conclusion
- iAmMizz!
- Nov 5, 2020
- 12 min read
I never actually got around to predicting the 2020 NFL Playoffs and the Super Bowl, partly because I wasn't sure that either would even occur, but now that we have reached the halfway point it's beginning to feel like it actually might. In this article I will compare my offseason projected records to the current records through the first eight weeks. After, I'll give my updated Playoff and Super Bowl predictions, based on upcoming schedules and current form. Links for each of my divisional previews are embedded in the words, "NightCap Projections."
AFC North
NightCap Projections: Baltimore Ravens (14-2), Cleveland Browns (9-7, WC), Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8, WC), Cincinnati Bengals (3-13)
Current Records: Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0), Baltimore Ravens (5-2, WC), Cleveland Browns (5-3, WC), Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1)
The big surprise in the AFC North is the Steelers dominance. I knew this defense was incredible, but I didn't trust Roethlisberger's return from such a major injury. I'll admit, I was wrong about Big Ben. His steady hand was exactly what this Pittsburgh franchise needed to turn a solid team into a Super Bowl contender. I was right about Chase Claypool though, who I predicted would make an immediate impact and eventually replace JuJu Smith-Schuster (impending free agent). Cleveland's rash of injuries has limited their success against top talent, but their overall depth and coaching has been enough to get them by most sub-par teams. Baker Mayfield still looks shaky at best, but this run game has what it takes to get the Browns to the Wildcard Round. The other two franchises are on a similar trajectory to what I expected, although Joe Burrow has been much better than I anticipated, and Lamar Jackson much worse (even though I did think he might regress). In the end, I had three playoffs teams coming from the AFC North, and so far those three teams are all in the postseason if things were to end today (I'll take that, even if the order is wrong).
AFC East
NightCap Projections: Buffalo Bills (10-6), New York Jets (8-8), New England Patriots (6-10), Miami Dolphins (5-11)
Current Records: Buffalo Bills (6-2), Miami Dolphins (4-3), New England Patriots (2-5), New York Jets (0-8)
Well at least I got the Jets loss total right through eight games! Excuse my homerism for a moment, as I am a Jets fan and actually thought they would improve on their 7-9 record in 2019. Way off on that one, but if you can find it in your heart to cut me some slack, the rest is looking on point. I only had the Bills making the playoffs from the AFC East, and that looks to be the case unless the Dolphins make a run behind Tua Tagovailoa. I KNEW that the Cam Newton experiment would fail miserably in New England, just like I KNEW Jarrett Stidham was overhyped heading into 2020. The Pats may be lucky if they make it to six wins, but I gave them at least six out of respect to Bill Belichick. They still have two upcoming against the Jets, so six is certainly still possible. Miami is playing the role that I had fit for New York. Surprising dark horse team that is built off the strength of their defense (not sure what happened to Gregg Williams defense this year in NY). I thought the Dolphins would improve and impress under Brian Flores (who I love as a head coach), I just didn't expect them to steal so many wins with such a tough schedule this year.
AFC South
NightCap Projections: Tennessee Titans (9-7), Indianapolis Colts (9-7, WC), Houston Texans (8-8), Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)
*I made a switch from the Texans to Steelers as the seventh wildcard team (by tiebreak) at the bottom of my final (NFC South) divisional preview. I know this sounds convenient, but it's there in writing, obviously a smart decision in the end.
Current Records: Indianapolis Colts (5-2), Tennessee Titans (5-2, WC), Houston Texans (1-6), Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)
Jeez! I figured the Texans would have a down year but 1-6?? Their defense has become an absolute embarrassment, and Deshaun Watson has not clicked with this wide receiving core like I thought he might. The sometimes inaccurate passer has also had one of his most inaccurate seasons throwing the football. Really glad that the Bill O'Brien era finally ended in Houston, hopefully better days ahead for this franchise. Aside from that, things have gone as expected yet again (don't worry, I may be hot right now but there are some mistakes coming later on). The Titans and Colts should be a race that comes right down to the wire. The two division leaders have yet to play head-to-head, so those meetings may just decide who takes the AFC South. The Jags came out fierce in Week 1, but since then it has been back to Trevor Watch.
AFC West
NightCap Projections: Kansas City Chiefs (13-3), Denver Broncos (7-9), Los Angeles Chargers (6-10), Las Vegas Raiders (5-11)
Current Records: Kansas City Chiefs (7-1), Las Vegas Raiders (4-3), Denver Broncos (3-4), Los Angeles Chargers (2-5)
It's incredible to me that the Chargers are 2-5, not that I expected them to be great, but if you look at the number of fourth quarter collapses and narrow defeats, it really is hard to believe. LAC should continue to improve behind Justin Herbert, who has been as good as any fan could have hoped (possibly even better than Burrow statistically). Maybe the Chargers reach that six win total in the second half, but they'll have to learn how to win close games if they're going to do that. The AFC West was a pretty easy one to predict in terms of the division champ. The Chiefs were basically a shoe-in, outside of some catastrophic injury occuring. From there, it became more challenging. I wasn't crazy about any of these teams, as you can tell by the records I projected. I definitely thought the Raiders would be much worse, after another roster overhaul that left me underwhelmed. I also thought the Broncos would be better, but injuries have gotten in the way. Aside from KC, this division may still even out a bit as the season comes to a close. I really only see one playoff contender here, no offense to Vegas or Denver.
NFC North
NightCap Projections: Green Bay Packers (10-6), Detroit Lions (8-8), Minnesota Vikings (6-10), Chicago Bears (5-11)
Current Records: Green Bay Packers (5-2), Chicago Bears (5-3), Detroit Lions (3-4), Minnesota Vikings (2-5)
One of the teams I got totally wrong was the Chicago Bears. Now keep in mind the Bears have lost two straight, so things may not work out for them in the end, but I had Chicago as a bottom of the barrel team in the NFC. I wasn't thrilled about their offense behind Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles, and thought that their only real strength was their pass rush (which includes Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn). The Bears had tight wins over the Lions, Giants, Falcons, Bucs and Panthers. A few could have easily gone the other way, but football is a game of inches and the Bears have made the most of those inches so far. I was pretty certain about the Packers winning their second NFC North in a row, and the Vikings having their worst season in some time. Green Bay didn't change much from 2019, while Minnesota stripped their roster of its veterans in an attempt to save cap. The rookie starter strategy hasn't really worked out too well for the Vikes front office though. The Lions were my other error in judgement. I think Matt Patricia is a terrible coach, but I always assume that this roster can overcome his shortcomings anyway. Whether it's injuries or blunders, that's just never the case. We'll see if the Packers end up running away with this thing when all is said and done.
NFC East
NightCap Projections: Dallas Cowboys (11-5), Philadelphia Eagles (9-7), Washington Football Team (5-11), New York Giants (4-12)
Current Records: Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1), Washington Football Team (2-5), Dallas Cowboys (2-6), New York Giants (1-7)
It's fitting that I named this preview "Cowboys & Injuries," because Dallas ended up getting hit with the injury bug worst of all. No one could have predicted the disaster that has befallen the Cowboys, but without Dak Prescott and multiple key offensive linemen and defenders, they're done for in 2020. I have liked what I've seen from Giants coach Joe Judge. This team should have more wins than one, similar to the Chargers, but the players just have not performed late in games. Either way, looks like another three or four win season for Big Blue as of now. Washington looks slightly better than New York, which is what I figured based on their pass rushers alone. The two face this weekend, in what is embarrasingly a "pivotal" NFC East showdown with three wins between the two franchises. The team I expect to come out of this division is Philly. The Eagles have been the best team in the NFC East over the last five years, and they are getting healthy at the right time. They won't win a ton of games, but they should reach the playoffs in place of Dallas.
NFC South
NightCap Projections: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-3), New Orleans Saints (13-3, WC), Atlanta Falcons (8-8), Carolina Panthers (4-12)
Current Records: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2), New Orleans Saints (5-2, WC), Carolina Panthers (3-5), Atlanta Falcons (2-6)
Read it and weep! Finally an NFC division with no major mistakes. I'm not a Tom Brady fan, as a Jets fan I really dislike the legendary quarterback, but I also know how good he is at getting his team to the playoffs. So far Brady has done exactly what I expected with his new franchise. I picked Tampa to leg out the Saints for two other reasons as well. First, this defense was one of the most underrated units in 2019. Now they are playing like a top all-around unit in 2020, and I was very high on that being a possibility. Two, New Orleans had a first place schedule while the Bucs had a third place schedule (from 2019). The difference is only two opponents, but the Giants and Rams sounded a lot better than the Eagles and 49ers at the time. The Falcons have really disappointed as the Dan Quinn era ends in more misery for Atlanta fans, while the Panthers have been a pleasant surprise under Matt Rhule (especially when you consider the Christian McCaffrey injury, and Carolina's roster as a whole). These two will probably trade wins and losses the rest of the way, but I don't think either sniffs a heated NFC playoff race.
NFC West
NightCap Projections: San Francisco 49ers (12-4), Seattle Seahawks (10-6, WC), Arizona Cardinals (9-7, WC), Los Angeles Rams (6-10)
*one other late change was that I added Arizona as the seventh wildcard in the final offseason article. I hadn't picked anyone to make this spot yet, but being that I did the West before the other divisions, I decided after I originally wrote the West article.
Current Records: Seattle Seahawks (6-1), Arizona Cardinals (5-2, WC), Los Angeles Rams (5-3, WC), San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
Well, it happened, I fell for the trap of believing an injury-prone roster would stay healthy two straight seasons. I loved the Niners in 2019, so I didn't feel I could turn my back on them repeating in 2020. In all fairness, Kyle Shanahan has done an outrageously good job with the amount of bodies he has on San Fran's IR. This team is built the right way, and should they stay healthy in 2021, they'll be back. Naturally, that left the door open for the Seahawks who looked solid heading into the season. Russell Wilson has played like an MVP, and Pete Carroll continues to coach this team to success in Seattle. I also liked the Cardinals to make the wildcard, in a narrow tiebreaker over the Eagles. This was a popular dark horse pick on Week 1, with Kyler Murray as a dark horse MVP candidate, but for me it was more about a top-heavy NFC. Outside of the Packers, Bucs, Saints, Cowboys, 49ers and Seahawks, no team excited me as much as Arizona, so I made the call. I was very wrong about the Rams however (I even took the under on their season win total, which I believe was nine... not looking great). Sean McVay, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey have reminded me that despite a mess of an offseason, phenomenal coaching and star power can save a roster. It remains to be seen if the Rams can make the playoffs or not (a head-to-head tiebreaker currently has them ahead of the Bears), but they're already one win away from my projected season total. Bravo Sean, bravo.
Revised 2020 Playoffs, Plus a Super Bowl Prediction
AFC Wildcard Round
My AFC projections came out incredibly accurate, aside from a few bubble contenders being off. Here are my updated projections, which you'll notice are the same seven teams I predicted back in the Summer (just different seeding):
(1) Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
BYE
(4) Buffalo Bills (10-6)
(5) Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
(3) Tennessee Titans (11-5)
(6) Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
(2) Pittsburgh Steelers (14-2)
(7) Cleveland Browns (9-7)
NFC Wildcard Round
For the NFC, I have more changes throughout. The Eagles will replace the Cowboys as NFC East Champ (narrowly over Washington), and the 49ers will miss out on the playoffs altogether, bumping the Seahawks and Cardinals up a spot in the NFC West. The Packers, Buccaneers and Saints will all still make the postseason, but the additional wildcard team (SF spot) will be the Rams. LA just has an easier remaining schedule than the Bears, who I have finishing 9-7. The Lions and Panthers on the other hand are just too far behind to make up the ground. I have both finishing 7-9.
(1) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
BYE
(4) Philadelphia Eagles (7-8-1)
(5) New Orleans Saints (11-5)
(3) Green Bay Packers (12-4)
(6) Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
(2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-3)
(7) Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
This Wildcard Round will usher in the beginning of a new era for the NFL. The added wildcard team means only one bye for the NFL's top seed in each Conference. I feel the Chiefs and Seahawks are the likeliest to attain these byes, based on scheduling and tiebreakers. In the first round you see a couple AFC divisional matchups in my projections (TEN/IND, PIT/CLE). These showdowns would be extra intense, so I kind of hope that they occur. Give me the Ravens to defeat the Bills in Buffalo (ending Lamar's playoff skid but continuing the Bills), the home favorite Titans in Tennessee (in a decisive best of three season series), and the home favorite Steelers in Pittsburgh (to complete a season sweep of the Browns) for the AFC. In the NFC, I'll take actually take the Eagles in an upset over the Saints (things haven't been going right for NOLA this year and Philadelphia always seems to find a way to win home playoff games), Packers over the Cards (Rodgers' playoff experience in Lambeau is too much for Kyler and Arizona), and the Bucs over the Rams (rematch of Brady-Goff and the Patriots-Rams Super Bowl). After the reseeding, the Divisional Round would look like this:
AFC Divisional Round
(1) Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
(5) Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
(2) Pittsburgh Steelers (14-2)
(3) Tennessee Titans (11-5)
NFC Divisional Round
(1) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
(4) Philadelphia Eagles (7-8-1)
(2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-3)
(3) Green Bay Packers (12-4)
In the divisional round, we get an AFC rematch of the two most recent MVP's, Patrick Mahomes vs Lamar Jackson. This matchup would be a dream for whichever NFL broadcast gets it, and let's hope we see these two faceoff again in 2020. No matter how you slice it, I can't pick against Mahomes and the Chiefs in this one, they've dominated the Ravens becoming the franchise's recent white whale. I like the smashmouth nature of the other AFC battle, another rematch that we have already seen once in 2020. The Steelers beat the Titans narrowly in Tennessee, and to be honest I can't see things flipping the other way around in Pittsburgh. Gimme Chiefs-Steelers for the AFC Championship (a chalk pick I know, but also the two most well-constructed teams in the AFC). The NFC is set up a little different, as the Seahawks get a gift with an under .500 team as their first playoff opponent of 2020. Seattle takes it easily on the backs of their passing attack. For Bucs-Packers we see a rematch of an absolute rout by Tampa a couple weeks ago. You can never embarrass Aaron Rodgers twice in a row though, Green Bay finds a way to upset Tom Brady on the road and advance to their second straight NFC Championship Game.
AFC Championship
This matchup would be similar to last year's Super Bowl. High-octane offense vs the best defense in the league. A sturdy rushing/play action attack vs an underrated defense that knows how to force turnovers. A dynamic mobile quarterback vs a true pocket passer. I was a sucker for the 49ers in the Super Bowl and I'm a defense wins championships type of guy, but it's hard to pick against Mahomes twice. Still, I'll do it anyway because this just seems like a fairytale season for the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger makes the throws that Jimmy Garoppolo couldn't, and Pittsburgh returns to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2011.
NFC Championship
Rodgers vs Wilson, Carroll vs LaFleur, Jones vs Carson, Adams vs Metcalf, and the Green Bay Packers vs the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field (if COVID allows it). Neither of these teams play great defense. The Packers struggle against the run and the Seahawks get killed through the air. Based on that assessment, advantage goes to Green Bay as Seattle doesn't run the ball as well as Rodgers slings it. That doesn't take into account the brilliance of Russell Wilson however, or the return of Jamal Adams. If the Packers won, it would set up a Super Bowl rematch of 2011, while if the Seahawks won it would set up a rematch of 2006. In the end, I've got to take Big Russ at home with the season on the line.
Super Bowl LV
For the 55th Super Bowl, I have the Pittsburgh Steelers facing off against the Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson will be favorite to win MVP, with T.J. Watt poised to take Defensive Player of the Year. We also have a tremendous coaching matchup here, with the aforementioned Pete Carroll against one of my personal favorites, Mike Tomlin. The Seahawks had a fortuitous road to the championship, with a deserved bye, as well as games against the Eagles and Packers (two teams that aren't all that great defensively). Here they play the opposite, a team that can dominate this offensive line and shut down Chris Carson and company. Wilson will really have to rely on Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf here, as the magician will be running for his life all game. On the other side, Roethlisberger should be comfortable in the pocket, but the question is whether or not these younger receivers show up in the Winter. I expect Pittsburgh to work the ground game with James Conner, but they'll need something from JuJu, Claypool, or Diontae Johnson as well. It will be a low-scoring old school affair, but I just think the Steelers have the better all-around team. I know they're the only undefeated team left (and that these are currently the two top seeds in the NFL), but I wouldn't call either of them the current Super Bowl favorites (Chiefs, Bucs, Ravens, etc.). Gimme the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger going out like Peyton Manning; announcing his retirement following his third Super Bowl win.
2020-21 Super Bowl Champ: Pittsburgh Steelers
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