AFC East Preview: Fall of a Dynasty
- iAmMizz!
- Sep 11, 2020
- 8 min read
It has been the New England Patriots' division pretty much since I started watching the sport, and I turn 27 in October. There is no doubt that what we have witnessed might just be the greatest dynasty in all of sports history, and I give all the credit in the world to those that were involved in the Patriot Way, but in 2020 that dynasty comes crashing down. New England finished 12-4 in Tom Brady's final season with the franchise, earning yet another AFC East title, but the Buffalo Bills were right on their heels at 10-6. The New York Jets then came in at 7-9, and the Miami Dolphins pulled up the rear at 5-11. Before getting to my 2020 predictions, let me first point out that this entire division has a grind of a schedule where they play both the NFC and AFC West divisions (that's a ton of travel time in the midst of a pandemic). It doesn't help that the NFC West is stacked with talent, and the AFC West is no slouch either with the defending Super Bowl Champs. This schedule puts a lot of adversity on all four of these teams right from the start, and here's how they fare heading into Week 1.
In case you want to look back on an article for more depth or information, provided are links to my 2020 NFL offseason free agency articles, 2020 NFL draft articles and more;
4. Miami Dolphins (Projection: 5-11)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: B+ (previously B)
IN- LB Kyle Van Noy, CB Byron Jones, RB Matt Breida, RB Jordan Howard, EDGE Shaq Lawson, G Ereck Flowers, C Ted Karras, LB Elandon Roberts, EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah, S Clayton Fejedelem, TE Adam Shaheen, TE Michael Roberts, WR Antonio Callaway
OUT- LB Raekwon McMillan, S Reshad Jones, RB Kalen Ballage, WR Trevor Davis, RB Samaje Perine, C Daniel Kilgore, QB Josh Rosen, EDGE Taco Charlton, EDGE Charles Harris, S Walt Aikens, S Adrian Colbert, CB Cordrea Tankersley, DT John Jenkins, T Ja'Marcus Webb, LB Mike Hull
OPT OUTS- WR Allen Hurns, WR Albert Wilson
LONG-TERM INJURIES- OLB Vince Biegel (IR)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: B
KEY PICKS- QB Tua Tagovailoa, T Austin Jackson, CB Noah Igbinoghene, DL Raekwon Davis, G Robert Hunt, RB Lynn Bowden (via trade), S, Brandon Jones, G Solomon Kindley
Final Offseason Grade: B
The Phins spent a whole lot of money and had a whole lot of picks, but they definitely used both frivolously at times. They absolutely overpaid on sub-par free agents like Ereck Flowers and Emmanuel Ogbah, and even probably spent too much on stars like Byron Jones or Kyle Van Noy, but the fact is that they needed some players that were respectable and now they have some. It was also surprising that in the draft they didn't target a single wide receiver until the seventh round, especially being that a few of their picks were viewed as reaches. It's hard to say that Miami's offseason was bad, because there is no question that they have a much better roster than last year and hardly any of the departures had value, but it's almost disappointing that they didn't do a bit better with all of their many assets. Don't sleep on this 32nd ranked defense (in 2019), head coach Brian Flores now has NFL talent to work with (and he didn't do so terribly without it). "Tua Tagovailoa watch" will also begin the moment veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick throws his first interception.
3. New England Patriots (Projection: 6-10)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: F (previously D-)
IN- QB Cam Newton, S Adrian Phillips, WR Damiere Byrd, DT Beau Allen, OLB Brandon Copeland, S Cody Davis, Joe Thuney (key tag), Devin McCourty (key re-signing)
OUT- QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski (rights), LB Kyle Van Noy, LB Jamie Collins, DT Danny Shelton, WR Mohamed Sanu, WR Phillip Dorsett, S Duron Harmon, C Ted Karras, LB Elandon Roberts, FB James Develin (retired), TE Ben Watson (retired), S Nate Ebner, T Marshall Newhouse, K Stephen Gostkowski
OPT OUTS- LB Dont'a Hightower, T Marcus Cannon, S Patrick Chung, TE Matt Lacosse, WR Marqise Lee, RB Brandon Bolden, FB Dan Vitale
LONG-TERM INJURIES- RB Damien Harris (week 4), DT Beau Allen (week 4), T Yodny Cajuste (week 4), LB Brandon King (week 8)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: C
KEY PICKS- S Kyle Dugger, LB Josh Uche, LB Anfernee Jennings, TE Devin Asiasi, TE Dalton Keene, K Justin Rohrwasser (waived & signed to practice squad), LB Cassh Maluia
Final Offseason Grade: D
Yep, Patriots fans be damned I am betting against Bill Belichick's "plan." If you count the opt-outs, this may have been the worst offseason I have ever witnessed by an NFL franchise. I mean just look at that list of veterans that will not be playing for the Pats this season. The New England Patriots literally lost half their roster, and when the flier signings and trades mostly don't make the team after that occurs (Lamar Miller, Sanu, Rohrwasser, Vitale), that's concerning. Belichick is rarely criticized because the end result has always justified his confusing process, but this time I just cannot fathom the Pats becoming a winning football team. There's no more Tom Brady or Dont'a Hightower to captain these units, and that will show on game day. Years of poorly managed cap and sub-par drafting has finally caught up to this franchise and it came like an avalanche. Now there's very little left on this roster outside of a plus-secondary, solid interior offensive line (the tackles are poor), and Julian Edelman. And for those that think Cam Newton is going to come in and turn back the clock (the same people that thought Jarrett Stidham would become Brady 2.0), I'll save you the suspense, he's not. The New England draft was also really questionable, I mean how does Bill B not draft any quarterback or wide receiver in April? Why does he take a kicker in the fifth round, especially a kicker who was not even expected to be drafted? Why does he take back-to-back tight ends? This defense is still above average, even after the departures, but this offense will hold the Pats (who have a very challenging first place schedule) back in 2020.
2. New York Jets (Projection: 8-8)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: B- (previously B)
IN- C Connor McGovern, WR Breshad Perriman, CB Pierre Desir, G Greg Van Roten, T George Fant, WR Chris Hogan, RB Frank Gore, S Bradley McDougald, LB Patrick Onwuasor, CB Quincy Wilson, QB Joe Flacco, Brian Poole (key re-signing)
OUT- S Jamal Adams, WR Robby Anderson, CB Trumaine Johnson, G Brian Winters, CB Darryl Roberts, T Kelvin Beachum, WR Demaryius Thomas, CB Maurice Canady, RB Ty Montgomery, RB Bilal Powell, C Ryan Kalil, T Brandon Shell, OL Tom Compton, EDGE Brandon Copeland, C Jonotthan Harrison, S Blake Countess, QB Trevor Siemian, WR Quincy Enunwa (IR), WR Josh Bellamy (IR), P Lac Edwards, K Brett Maher
OPT OUTS- LB C.J. Mosley, WR Josh Doctson
LONG-TERM INJURIES- QB Joe Flacco (week 3), WR Vyncint Smith (week 4), Patrick Onwuasor (week 4), EDGE Jabari Zuniga (week 4), WR Jeff Smith (week 4)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: B+
KEY PICKS- T Mekhi Becton, WR Denzel Mims, S Ashtyn Davis, EDGE Jabari Zuniga, OL Cameron Clarke, CB Bryce Hall, QB James Morgan, RB La'Mical Perine, P Braden Mann
Final Offseason Grade: B
As you can see, the Jets new GM Joe Douglas cut a lot of the slack off the roster this offseason. Very few of the departures were players of consequence, similar to Miami, but a ton of these guys that had spent the last few years with New York will not be spending 2020 with it. The offensive line was completely gutted, and for good reason. They were doing a pitiful job in front of Le'Veon Bell and Sam Darnold last year. The only player remaining on the O-Line from 2019 is left guard Alex Lewis, and he only joined the Jets at the very beginning of Douglas' tenure (which started just before last year's training camp, but after free agency and the draft). The BIG addition, literally and figuratively, is first round left tackle Mekhi Becton out of Louisville. The Jets will hope to groom the mountain-like human into the new anchor of this unit. Speaking of anchors, Douglas elected to sign a pretty good one to handle the snaps. McGovern is coming off his best season in Denver, and the center is only now entering his prime football years. Veterans Fant and Van Roten will fill in on the right side to complete the totally revamped blocking unit. Fans are still upset that the Jets didn't do more at wide receiver, but Breshad Perriman, Chris Hogan and rookie Denzel Mims will have to do for now. Desir was picked up to replace Trumaine Johnson, but the shocking move on the defensive side was when New York flipped superstar safety Jamal Adams for a haul of draft picks (plus Bradley McDougald). Even though the long-term effects of this trade might be positive for NYJ, in the short-term it (plus the C.J. Mosley opt-out) forces me to lower their offseason grade from B to B-. Many think that head coach Adam Gase is in a position where he must win-now, but Joe Douglas' decisions imply that the Jets are looking towards 2021 and beyond. This isn't a terrible team anymore, but with this schedule, odds are they won't return to the postseason just yet.
1. Buffalo Bills (Projection: 10-6)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: A
IN- WR Stefon Diggs, CB Josh Norman, EDGE Mario Addison, LB A.J. Klein, DT Vernon Butler, G Brian Winters, DE Quinton Jefferson, LB Tyler Matakevich, P Lac Edwards
OUT- EDGE Shaq Lawson, LB Lorenzo Alexander (retired), DT Jordan Phillips, RB Frank Gore, WR Robert Foster, CB Kevin Johnson, S Kurt Coleman, G Spencer Long, T LaAdrian Waddle, DT Vincent Taylor, DB Dean Marlowe, LB Julian Stanford, K Stephen Hauschka
OPT OUTS- DT Star Lotulelei, CB E.J. Gaines
LONG-TERM INJURIES- G Jon Feliciano (week 4), WR Isaiah Hodgins (week 4), TE Tommy Sweeney (week 7)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: A-
KEY PICKS- DE A.J. Epenesa, RB Zack Moss, WR Gabriel Davis, K Tyler Bass, QB Jake Fromm, WR Isaiah Hodgins
Final Offseason Grade: A
Buffalo had a dream offseason, and part of that is because just as their franchise is peaking, the rest of the division is rebuilding (especially the Brady-less Patriots). First they go out and get a big name offensive weapon in Stefon Diggs. His deep ball ability paired with Josh Allen's cannon of an arm can only spell trouble for opposing defenses. Then, they were able to retain most of their roster from last season, with the exception of Shaq Lawson (Mario Addison signing accounts for that loss) and Lorenzo Alexander's retirement (A.J. Klein signing attempts to fill that void). Key members of last year's stout Bills' secondary were re-signed, like Jordan Poyer and Levi Wallace, and Josh Norman even joins the group as a second or third option at corner behind Tre'Davious White. They did lose some depth up the gut on defense when Star Lotulelei decided to opt out, but Jefferson and Butler should help with that. Even after guard Jon Feliciano got hurt in preseason, Buffalo was able to swoop in and sign Brian Winters (who was recently released by the rival Jets). The draft also went swimmingly. The Bills traded most of their picks for Diggs because to be honest, they didn't really need much. With the picks they had remaining, they mostly targeted the best talent available no matter the position, and top prospects seemed to fall into their lap left and right. Pass rusher A.J. Epenesa, running back Zack Moss, wide receiver Gabriel Davis, kicker Tyler Bass (who beat Hauschka out for the job), even quarterback Jake Fromm. Rival New England could use Moss, Bass and Fromm right about now, and they had plenty of opportunity to draft each of the three. Ever since GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott took over in Buffalo, this team has been run like a well-oiled machine. Now it's time to finally win the East.
So while I really have the Bills, Jets and Dolphins at similar records as last season, the Patriots are the significant movers as they drop in my projections after a nightmarish few months for fans. As I said before, these four teams will have their work cut out for them in 2020 with the travel schedule that they have to fight through (not to mention the Covid restrictions). I could see the bottom three finishing under .500, but I'm currently giving the Jets the benefit of the doubt because they did get better and they are currently much healthier than last season (and that's saying something considering the injuries they have right now). I feel the Dolphins and Bills in particular have really improved a lot, even if their record may not end up showing it. The Pats on the other hand may just be a victim of lousy timing. Their intense schedule coupled with the opt-outs and departures will likely combine to form a catastrophic collapse, and in the end, the fall of a dynasty.
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