AFC South Preview: A Division of Inches
- iAmMizz!
- Sep 9, 2020
- 8 min read
Generally one of the tighter divisions, because no team really ever stands out, the AFC South was exactly that in 2019... average. The Houston Texans eventually emerged as the division winners with a 10-6 record, but it was the Tennessee Titans who impressed during the postseason. The 9-7 wildcards first upset the New England Patriots, and then the number one seed Baltimore Ravens before falling one game short of the Super Bowl. The Indianapolis Colts disappointed after Andrew Luck retired in preseason (7-9), and the Jacksonville Jaguars remained in fourth after a Nick Foles signing blew up in their face with a Week 1 injury. With new faces like Philip Rivers and Jadeveon Clowney entering the South, will we see similar results in 2020, or something totally different?
In case you want to look back on an article for more depth or information, provided are links to my 2020 NFL offseason free agency articles, 2020 NFL draft articles and more;
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (Projection: 3-13)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: D- (previously C-)
IN- MLB Joe Schobert, RB Chris Thompson, DT Timmy Jernigan, DT Adam Gotsis, TE Tyler Eifert, DE Cassius Marsh, WR Trey Quinn, QB Mike Glennon
OUT- DL Calais Campbell, EDGE Yannick Ngakoue, RB Leonard Fournette, CB A.J. Bouye, QB Nick Foles, WR Marqise Lee, S Ronnie Harrison, MLB Jake Ryan, TE Geoff Swaim, TE Seth DeValve, MLB Austin Calitro, RB Alfred Blue, LB Preston Brown, TE Nick O'Leary, TE Ben Koyack, OL Cedric Ogbuehi, S Cody Davis, OL Ben Ijalana, QB Josh Dobbs
OPT OUTS- CB Rashaan Melvin, DT Al Woods
LONG-TERM INJURIES- TE Josh Oliver, LB Quincy Williams, Ryquell Armstrong (Covid)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: B+
KEY PICKS- CB C.J. Henderson, EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson, WR Laviska Shenault, DT DaVon Hamilton, LB Shaquille Quarterman, CB Josiah Scott, OL Ben Bartch, S Daniel Thomas, WR Collin Johnson, QB Jake Luton
Final Offseason Grade: C
The Jags are definitely a hard team to grade in 2020, because they went into full rebuild mode and got rid of a ton of talent in favor of draft capital and cap space, but so far they have used most of those picks well. Once Jalen Ramsey demanded out last season, or really ever since this franchise blew the lead in the 2017-18 AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots, everything has crumbled for Jacksonville. This once great defense has been torn down and ripped to pieces. High draft picks have been traded and even released (Leonard Fournette) in recent offseasons. Veterans have ripped management to the media left and right, but mainly, this ownership has given up on this group of players, and after 2020 they will likely start fresh with top quarterback prospect Trevor Lawrence. In other words, this franchise is tanking, but it's players are not, current QB Gardner Minshew chief among them. Everyone expects the Jaguars to be the worst team in football this season, and they very well could be, but with the fiery Minshew and a hungry group of young talent, I wonder if Jacksonville surprises a few teams that take them lightly along the way. Keep an eye on the rookies and second/third-year players that are given major roles.
3. Houston Texans (Projection: 8-8, WC)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: D (previously D-)
IN- WR Brandin Cooks, WR Randall Cobb, RB David Johnson, S Michael Thomas, S Eric Murray, DT P.J. Hall, CB Bradley Roby (key re-signing)
OUT- WR DeAndre Hopkins, DT D.J. Reader, CB Jonathan Joseph, RB Carlos Hyde, S Tash Gipson, S Jahleel Addae, RB Lamar Miller, TE Jordan Thomas, OL Greg Mancz, DL Angelo Blackson, EDGE Barkevious Mingo, S Mike Adams
OPT OUTS- DT Eddie Vanderdoes
LONG-TERM INJURIES- CB Gareon Conley (week 4), Isaiah Coulter (week 4)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: C+
KEY PICKS- DT Ross Blacklock, EDGE Jonathan Greenard, CB John Reid, T Charlie Heck, WR Isaiah Coulter
Final Offseason Grade: C-
As far as I'm concerned, Deshaun Watson is the only thing still holding this team together. This franchise has progressively gotten worse defensively since drafting the superstar QB, and they have never given him any offensive line help besides trading for Laremy Tunsil. After the most recent string of trades that basically flipped DeAndre Hopkins and a draft pick for Brandin Cooks, David Johnson and rookie Ross Blacklock, Bill O'Brien took one of the most talented playmakers in the entire game and sent him packing for a first aid kit full of band-aids. The Randall Cobb signing should help replace Hopkins, but at best this new offense is a poor man's version of last year's group, and the defense looks worse. It's now clear that money was the deciding factor in the Hopkins debacle, and the Texans were caught penny-pinching this time around. The other crucial loss that went totally unnoticed was D.J. Reader at defensive tackle. Houston wasn't willing to pay up for the run-stuffer either, and that could be an issue when they play run-heavy Titans and Colts four times this season with no ability to stop the ground game. A collection of prospects and journeymen will likely cycle in and out of a noticeably weak D-Line. The final deciding factor in the 8-8 record was Houston's schedule, which puts them up against first place talent like the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots (who they might be able to beat), rather than the New York Jets, Denver Broncos, or Las Vegas Raiders.
2. Indianapolis Colts (Projection: 9-7, WC)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: A-
IN- DT DeForest Buckner, QB Philip Rivers, CB Xavier Rhodes, S Tavon Wilson, TE Trey Burton, CB T.J. Carrie, DT Sheldon Day, T Anthony Castonzo (key re-signing)
OUT- EDGE Jabaal Sheard, CB Pierre Desir, TE Eric Ebron, WR Devin Funchess, DT Margus Hunt, CB Quincy Wilson, S Clayton Geathers, OL Joe Haeg, C Josh Andrews, WR Marcus Johnson, WR Chester Rogers, QB Brian Hoyer, K Adam Vinatieri, K Chase McLaughlin
OPT OUTS- None
LONG-TERM INJURIES- TE Trey Burton (week 4), DT Sheldon Day (week 4), Kemoko Turay
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: B+
KEY PICKS- RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman, S Julian Blackmon, QB Jacob Eason, OL Danny Pinter, K Rodrigo Blankenship
Final Offseason Grade: A-
The only team in this division that had a really influential offseason (in a positive sense), was the well-run Indianapolis Colts who systematically checked a ton of boxes this Spring/Summer. First, they got their quarterback. When Andrew Luck retired just before 2019, it set Indy back a year. Jacoby Brissett wasn't quite up efficient enough to take this team to the postseason, and while I'm not sure an aging Philip Rivers is good enough to get the Colts into double digit wins either, the veteran's experience and class should end up adding enough to get Indianapolis back into the playoffs. After Rivers, GM Chris Ballard shocked the NFL by acquiring a defensive playmaker that nobody even knew was available, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. The former Niner is the real gem of this offseason for Indy. Entering his prime, Buckner can change this defense into a top ten unit. The second-team All-Pro has Super Bowl experience, and he knows what it takes to get his team there. Convincing left tackle Anthony Castonzo to re-sign (rather than retire), was another massive win for Ballard, and the draft was the cherry on top. A possible QB of the future (Eason, to learn from Rivers), a running back and wide receiver who both have the ability to start in 2020 (Taylor and Pittman), and an undrafted top kicker prospect who won the job in camp (Blankenship). I also thought the Tavon Wilson late signing at safety was just another move that could help in a season where depth will be crucial. Bravo Indy, the division could be yours again as soon as this year, but it all depends on how well Rivers can play behind this top-notch offensive line.
1. Tennessee Titans (Projection: 9-7)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: C
IN- EDGE Jadeveon Clowney, CB Jonathan Joseph, EDGE Vic Beasley, MLB Will Compton, TE Geoff Swaim, DT Jack Crawford, T Ty Sambrailo, K Stephen Gostkowski, RB Derrick Henry (key re-signing), QB Ryan Tannehill (key re-signing)
OUT- T Jack Conklin, DL Jurrell Casey, CB Logan Ryan, TE Delanie Walker, QB Marcus Mariota, RB Dion Lewis, WR Tajae Sharpe, MLB Wes Woodyard, EDGE Cameron Wake, DT Austin Johnson, CB LeShaun Sims, LB Daren Bates, K Ryan Succop, K Greg Joseph
OPT OUTS- DT Eddie Vanderdoes
LONG-TERM INJURIES- S Dane Cruikshank (week 4), T Isaiah Wilson (Covid)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: C
KEY PICKS- T Isaiah Wilson, CB Kristian Fulton, RB Darrynton Evans, DT Larrell Murchison
Final Offseason Grade: C
The Titans spent most of the offseason either replacing pieces they lost, or re-signing crucial linchpins like Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. This explains the C Grade, which in my grading system represents a neutral report card. For better or for worse, this franchise is now locked in with Tannehill and Henry headlining this offensive unit, but it's the defense and special teams units that gained a boost in free agency just before the end of camp. Premier edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney and veteran kicker Stephen Gostkowski both signed with Tennessee, after months of speculation that both would eventually see their way into a Titans' uniform. Gostkowski has Patriots ties to head coach Mike Vrabel, and Vrabel barely trusted Greg Joseph to take chip-shot field goals in the playoffs last season, so this one always felt like a perfect fit. Clowney on the other hand played the field all Summer, but Tennessee eventually gave him the best offer. Even with the recent transactions, the Titans didn't really improve all that much this offseason. When right tackle Jack Conklin left for Cleveland, he left a huge hole on the edge of the O-Line. First rounder Isaiah Wilson will hope to eventually fill the void, but this pick felt like a reach to most analysts. Wilson is currently on the Covid list, and unlikely to start in Week 1 anyway. On the D-Line, it's unclear if Clowney will play on the interior, where Jurrell Casey once resided, or join a crowded outside linebacker group that also added Vic Beasley. They could use him more inside, but the 3-4 DL set up isn't Clowney's bread and butter. Jonnu Smith graduates to first team tight end as Delanie Walker remains unsigned and rookie Darrynton Evans figures to be the main backup behind Henry at running back. One area where Tennessee is really deep is in the secondary, they lost Logan Ryan but signed Jonathan Joseph and drafted Kristian Fulton. The Titans now have four corners that could start on most rosters. Tennessee will attempt to grind out victories with a heavy rushing attack and an underrated defense (just like they did in last year's playoff run). It can work, but without Conklin or much offensive depth in general, will it?
So I actually have three teams making the playoffs from the AFC South, with the Houston Texans sneaking into the final seventh wildcard on a tiebreaker. This means that along with the Cleveland Browns, all of our three AFC wildcards are set (meaning I do not think very highly of the AFC East and West this season). The Titans and Colts will also finish even at 9-7, but I'll give Tennessee the tiebreaker for having a better division record, meaning Mike Vrabel's Titans are my pick for South Champion in 2020, but only by a hair. These top three teams should all be close in talent, but I don't feel Houston matches up well with either of their main competitors. Tennessee is the safe bet for now, but it's fair to mention that Indy probably has the greatest potential.
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