AFC West Preview: Chasing Champions
- iAmMizz!
- Sep 10, 2020
- 7 min read
The AFC West didn't deviate too far from expectations last season with the Kansas City Chiefs rolling to a runaway division title at 12-4 (despite Patrick Mahomes missing a few weeks). The one major surprise was the Los Angeles Chargers, who went from being a strong playoff contender to a miserable bust overnight, after injuries derailed them to a 5-11 disaster (ending Philip Rivers career in California). The Denver Broncos started slow, but finished stronger at a second place 7-9 behind rookie quarterback Drew Lock, and the Las Vegas Raiders spent their last season in Oakland hovering around .500 and finishing just under it, also at 7-9. I don't expect any team to challenge the Chiefs for the division in 2020, but who has the best chance at a wildcard spot?
In case you want to look back on an article for more depth or information, provided are links to my 2020 NFL offseason free agency articles, 2020 NFL draft articles and more;
4. Las Vegas Raiders (Projection: 5-11)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: B-
IN- LB Cory Littleton, LB Raekwon McMillan, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, DT Maliek Collins, EDGE Carl Nassib, WR Nelson Agholor, TE Jason Witten, QB Marcus Mariota, RB Devontae Booker, S Jeff Heath, TE Nick O'Leary
OUT- S Damarious Randall, S Karl Joseph, DE Benson Mayowa, LB Tahir Whitehead, LB Vontaze Burfict, DE Dion Jordan, RB Lynn Bowden (3rd rd pick traded), CB Daryl Worley, CB Ken Crawley, LB Will Compton, S Curtis Riley, WR Dwayne Harris, RB Isaiah Crowell, RB DeAndre Washington, DT Olsen Pierre, DT P.J. Hall, QB Mike Glennon,
OPT OUTS- None
LONG-TERM INJURIES- WR Tyrell Williams (IR), QB Marcus Mariota (week 4), S Tanner Muse (week 4)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: C (previously C-)
KEY PICKS- WR Henry Ruggs, CB Damon Arnette, WR Bryan Edwards, S Tanner Muse, CB Amik Robertson, OL John Simpson
Final Offseason Grade: C+
The entire AFC West has a rough schedule, matching up with the NFC South who might just be one of the strongest divisions in football, and an AFC East division that is probably slightly better on average than teams like the Raiders and Chargers. Las Vegas in particular also faces the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts based on 2019's third place finishes, two teams that have improved a ton, so their schedule could be extra tough. In terms of roster turnover, it's been another failed offseason for Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock. They gutted the entire defense again, with a totally new linebacker core and a few fresh faces in both the secondary and D-Line. Unfortunately, the main thing the Raiders needed was a corner, and they saw not one but TWO cornerback signings fall through. Eli Apple was the first to scorn them, as he eventually signed with their Week 1 opponent, Carolina. Then veteran Prince Amukamara signed and didn't even make it through camp. Las Vegas is set to start Trayvon Mullen (more or less a bust so far) and first rounder Damon Arnette (who was considered a massive reach in the draft), with Lamarcus Joyner at nickel and an Erik Harris/Jonathan Abram (injured entire rookie season) combination at safety. Yep, Patrick Mahomes is going to have fun with this secondary. The offense didn't add much in free agency (aside from overpaying for Mariota to be a back up, bringing in the fossilized Jason Witten and splurging on the drop-happy Agholor), but they did seemingly succeed at drafting wide receivers. I bumped their draft grade up from a C- to C, based on the fact that both Ruggs and Edwards had great camps and are projected to start, but part of that is due to a season-ending injury for the projected number one wide-out, Tyrell Williams. The rest of the draft was hard to stomach, and one third round pick (Lynn Bowden) was traded before the end of camp. For two experts getting paid boatloads of money, Gruden and Mayock have built an embarrassment so far.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (Projection: 6-10)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: C+
IN- CB Chris Harris, T Bryan Bulaga, DT Linval Joseph, G Trai Turner, LB Nick Vigil, RB Austin Ekeler (key re-signing), TE Hunter Henry (key tag)
OUT- QB Philip Rivers, RB Melvin Gordon, T Russell Okung, LB Thomas Davis, S Adrian Phillips, S Jaylen Watkins, LB Jatavis Brown, DT Brandon Mebane, G Michael Schofield, WR Andre Patton, WR Darius Jennings, FB Derek Watt, WR Travis Benjamin
OPT OUTS- None
LONG-TERM INJURIES- S Derwin James (IR)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: B-
KEY PICKS- QB Justin Herbert, LB Kenneth Murray, RB Joshua Kelley, WR Joe Reed
Final Offseason Grade: B-
Although they have not admitted to it, this offseason was a re-shuffling of sorts for a Chargers team that went from being a 12-win roster to a five-win one overnight. Rivers is gone, Gordon is gone, Okung is gone, Thomas Davis is gone. It's a massive changing of the guards for Los Angeles, but overall I like the direction they are headed in, and to be honest they didn't really lose any player that wasn't arguably past his prime anyway. Justin Herbert will be groomed as the new franchise QB, and depending on how journeyman Tyrod Taylor does with a relatively soft start to the schedule, maybe even see some action at some point this season. GM Tom Telesco also recognized his team's greatest strength, running back Austin Ekeler, and began to supplement him. The Bryan Bulaga signing might be the most influential move of the Spring, and flipping Okung for Trai Turner should also help solidify an O-Line that struggled last season. On the other side of the ball, Linval Joseph joins a front four that already includes Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, and Chris Harris completes a top tier secondary that sports Casey Hayward and Desmond King. The Derwin James injury is a shame, and it hurts, but 2020 won't be the year they really need him anyway. Having said that, this is a really strong defensive unit with first rounder Kenneth Murray joining the linebackers, and with a fourth place schedule (that includes games against Cincinnati and Jacksonville), I could actually see the Chargers winning six or seven games despite the re-tooling.
2. Denver Broncos (Projection: 7-9)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: C+ (previously B-)
IN- DL Jurrell Casey, RB Melvin Gordon, CB A.J. Bouye, OL Graham Glasgow, T Demar Dotson, LB Austin Calitro, LB Mark Barron, QB Jeff Driskel, TE Nick Vannett, P Sam Martin, S Justin Simmons (key tag)
OUT- C Connor McGovern, CB Chris Harris, DL Derek Wolfe, CB Isaac Yiadom, G Ronald Leary, LB Todd Davis, S Will Parks, DT Adam Gotsis, QB Joe Flacco, RB Devontae Booker, TE Jeff Heuerman, FB Andy Janovic, LB Corey Nelson, QB Brandon Allen, DT Billy Winn
OPT OUTS- T Ja'Wuan James, DT Kyle Peko
LONG-TERM INJURIES- EDGE Von Miller (out indefinitely)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: A-
KEY PICKS- WR Jerry Jeudy, WR K.J. Hamler, C/G Lloyd Cushenberry, CB Michael Ojemudia, TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DT McTelvin Agim, LB Justin Strnad
Final Offseason Grade: B
Some people like the Denver Broncos as a dark horse to make the playoffs based on the way they finished the season in 2019, but I'm not buying it with this 2020 schedule. The Broncos could have the most challenging road to the postseason (on par with the Raiders and even worse than the first place Chiefs). While every team in this division faces the NFC South and AFC East, the Broncos get the second place Titans and Steelers, while the Chiefs get the Texans and Ravens (obviously Baltimore is a top talent but the Texans may have taken a few steps back). With the recent Von Miller injury weighing in on my decision, I'm not sure this offseason was enough to push the Broncos over the top. Sure the draft was tremendous, Jeudy and Hamler (once healthy) should help take the pressure off Courtland Sutton, and Cushenberry will likely start at guard. The offense is definitely better with the rookies (and Gordon), but it's still not a dominant unit and Drew Lock might need dominance around him to be successful against this level of competition. I also thought the Chris Harris/A.J. Bouye trade off was a downgrade, even if the Jurrell Casey/Wolfe one was an upgrade, and Miller's injury could leave a monstrous hole. I do think Denver improved as a whole, but with their schedule looking almost twice as tough this year, I don't see them taking a step forward in the win column.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (Projection: 13-3)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: C- (previously D)
IN- G Kelechi Osemele, OL Mike Remmers, S Tedric Thompson, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, EDGE Taco Charlton, CB Antonio Hamilton, Chris Jones (key re-signing)
OUT- CB Kendall Fuller, RB LeSean McCoy, G Stefen Wisniewski, LB Reggie Ragland, EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah, LB Darron Lee, CB Morris Claiborne, EDGE Terrell Suggs, T Cameron Erving, TE Blake Bell, S Jordan Lucas, DT Xavier Williams, P Dustin Colquitt
OPT OUTS- RB Damien Williams, G Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, T Lucas Niang
LONG-TERM INJURIES- None
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: C+
KEY PICKS- RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LB Willie Gay Jr., T Lucas Niang, DB L'Jarius Sneed
Final Offseason Grade: C
I know, I know. The Kansas City Chiefs retained a large amount of their starters from their championship roster, so my grade shouldn't be so harsh, but there's no denying this team took some hits. People like to point out the quantity of returning starters, but they always leave out the quality of the few that left. Kendall Fuller was a shutdown corner who was not replaced this offseason. Opt-out Duvernay-Tardif was subbed for a band-aid in Osemele that hasn't put in any decent tape in years. Damien Williams also opted out, and no veteran was brought in to relieve rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (with McCoy also signing elsewhere). Even rookie tackle Niang decided not to play, and more O-Line depth left town with Wisniewski. The Chris Jones re-signing was huge, I'll give you that, but outside of the wide receiver and quarterback room, the depth on this roster is staggeringly poor. There is no depth at any level of the defense besides maybe D-Line, no depth at running back, none at O-Line, and the secondary might be one of the worst in football. So long as the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes putting up points, it may not even matter during the regular season, but these deficiencies could factor in the playoffs. Circle Week 3 on your schedule for an AFC Postseason preview, as the Chiefs travel to Baltimore to take on a much deeper Ravens team.
So in the end, the answer to my question of which AFC West team could factor in the 2020 Wildcard Race is really none of them. Denver probably has the best chance, but with this brutal schedule I just don't see it. The Chiefs should roll to an easy division win so long as Mahomes is healthy, but I do see them possibly struggling to repeat in the playoffs.
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