NFC North Preview: Ain't No Rest for the Rookies
- iAmMizz!
- Sep 12, 2020
- 8 min read
The NFC North went mostly as I expected last season. The Green Bay Packers powered their way back into a first place 13-3 finish with a forceful rushing attack and an improved pass rush led by Za'Darius and Preston Smith. The Minnesota Vikings then took a wildcard at 10-6 with a veteran defense and a healthy Dalvin Cook, as the Chicago Bears D regressed to an 8-8 finish (along with Mitchell Trubisky's quarterback play. The one big surprise was the banged up Detroit Lions, who practically left 2019 on a stretcher at 3-12-1. The Lions should be much better in 2020 assuming Matthew Stafford and the rest of this roster stay healthy, but can any of these three bitter rivals challenge the Packers who aim to repeat?
In case you want to look back on an article for more depth or information, provided are links to my 2020 NFL offseason free agency articles, 2020 NFL draft articles and more;
4. Chicago Bears (Projection: 5-11)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: C- (previously D+)
IN- EDGE Robert Quinn, QB Nick Foles, WR Ted Ginn, TE Jimmy Graham, T Germain Ifedi, S Tash Gipson, CB Artie Burns, TE Demetrius Harris, WR Trevor Davis, DL Mario Edwards, T Jason Spriggs, DT John Jenkins, EDGE Barkevious Mingo, S Jordan Lucas, K Cairo Santos
OUT- G Kyle Long (retired), S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, LB Leonard Floyd, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, DT Nick Williams, CB Prince Amukamara, WR Taylor Gabriel, TE Trey Burton, EDGE Aaron Lynch (retired), T Cornelius Lucas, QB Chase Daniel, TE Adam Shaheen, TE Ben Braunecker,
OPT OUTS- DT Eddie Goldman
LONG-TERM INJURIES- EDGE Robert Quinn (doubtful for Week 1), K Eddy Pineiro (week 4), CB Artie Burns (IR)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: C
KEY PICKS- TE Cole Kmet, CB Jaylon Johnson, EDGE Trevis Gipson, CB Kindle Vildor
Final Offseason Grade: C-
The Bears had an offseason that set them back more than it propelled them forward. Their number one ranked defense in 2018 looked aged and unmotivated in '19, as the Chicago offense was stagnant for most of the season. Perhaps the departure of D-Coordinator Vic Fangio played a factor, or perhaps this Bears' D just cannot account for this pitiful offense any longer. How Matt Nagy won coach of the year in 2018 is beyond me, this guy might be one of the more useless coaches in the NFL. He's supposed to be an offensive guru and this unit looks totally lost half the time, sometimes abandoning the run altogether and other times running too much. Nagy brought in Nick Foles to compete with Trubisky for the starting job, but apparently Trubisky won it. To me, this is terrible news for Chicago fans, because it tells you Foles wasn't great (one), and that 2020 will likely more of the same with Mitchell at the helm (two). Aside from Foles, this offense adds two over-the-hill players in Jimmy Graham and Ted Ginn, while losing even more talent on an already below-average offensive line (Kyle Long and Cornelius Lucas). It will be interesting to see if top tight end prospect Cole Kmet has any influence during his rookie campaign. The defense was stripped of valuable pieces as well (Clinton-Dix, Floyd, Kwiatkoski, Nick Williams, Lynch and opt-out Goldman). The most glaring hole is the one up the gut, with no notable replacements filling in for Goldman and Williams. The secondary could also be a concern, as Amukamara was cut, and veteran Artie Burns is now on IR. The starting job across from Kyle Fuller will fall to rookie Jaylon Johnson. The main acquisition by the Bears was experienced edge rusher Robert Quinn (who could miss Week 1). When healthy, Quinn makes a fearsome pass rushing duo with Khalil Mack.
3. Minnesota Vikings (Projection: 6-10)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: F
IN- EDGE Yannick Ngakoue, DT Michael Pierce (opt out), WR Tajae Sharpe, DE Anthony Zettel, LB Ryan Connelly, S Anthony Harris (key tag)
OUT- WR Stefon Diggs, DT Linval Joseph, EDGE Everson Griffen, CB Xavier Rhodes, CB Trae Waynes, S Andrew Sendejo, CB Mackensie Alexander, G Josh Kline, DT Stephen Weatherly, WR Laquon Treadwell, S Jayron Kearse, DB Marcus Sherels
OPT OUTS- DT Michael Pierce
LONG-TERM INJURIES- EDGE Danielle Hunter (week 4), LB Ben Gedeon (week 8)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: A
KEY PICKS- WR Justin Jefferson, CB Jeff Gladney, T Ezra Cleveland, CB Cameron Dantzler, DE James Lynch, DE D.J. Wonnum, LB Troy Dye, CB Harrison Hand, WR K.J. Osborn
Final Offseason Grade: D+
I thought the Minnesota Vikings had the number one draft in the NFL, and in the long run this offseason may look wiser than a D+ mark, but for the short-term this 2019 playoff team could be in trouble. They will be forced to start four or five new starters on this defense from last year, with a green cornerback crew made up of three rookies, Mike Hughes and Holton Hill. The Michael Pierce opt-out was also a killer. The Vikings were counting on him to replace Linval Joseph, and now they are left with nobodies at DT. Perhaps Minnesota brings in a run-stuffer early in the season (there are still a couple veterans available), but right now they are set to start Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson (two low-ceiling vets). This D unit still has two of the top safeties in the game, plus a solid linebacker crew and a brand new edge rusher in Yannick Ngakoue, but the Danielle Hunter injury really hurts their chances of performing up to snuff in the early weeks. If this offense was the strength for the Vikes, it might be okay that the defense takes a step back, but it's not. Stefon Diggs is gone, leaving just Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook as the known superstars for QB Kirk Cousins to utilize. I like rookie wide-out Justin Jefferson a ton, but he'll have to prove himself at the NFL level just like everyone else. It also shouldn't be overlooked that 2019 offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski took the head coaching job in Cleveland, meaning this unit will have to learn yet another new playbook, AKA more growing pains in Minnesota.
2. Detroit Lions (Projection: 8-8)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: C
IN- CB Desmond Trufant, LB Jamie Collins, DT Danny Shelton, T Halapoulivaati Vaitai, S Duron Harmon, DT Nick Williams, RB Adrian Peterson, CB Darryl Roberts, LB Reggie Ragland, QB Chase Daniel, S Jayron Kearse, LB Elijah Lee, WR Geronimo Allison (opt out)
OUT- CB Darius Slay, C/G Graham Glasgow, LB Devon Kennard, DT Damon Harrison, DT A'Shawn Robinson, S Tavon Wilson, T Rick Wagner, CB Rashaan Melvin, RB J.D. McKissic, TE Logan Thomas, DT Mike Daniels, QB Jeff Driskel, TE Isaac Nauta, QB David Blough, WR Jermaine Kearse, DT Darius Kilgo, P Sam Martin
OPT OUTS- WR Geronimo Allison
LONG-TERM INJURIES- WR Kenny Golladay (doubtful for week 1), T Halapoulivaati Vaitai (week 2), DB Mike Ford (week 4), RB Bo Scarbrough (week 4), DE Austin Bryant (week 8)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: B-
KEY PICKS- CB Jeff Okudah, RB D'Andre Swift, EDGE Julian Okwara, OL Jonah Jackson, OL Logan Sternberg, WR Quintez Cephus
Final Offseason Grade: C+
Detroit took on a boatload of injuries in 2019, and they didn't exactly handle that adversity well. This year, former New England Patriots' brass Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia decided to get back to what they know, stealing players from Bill Belichick left and right. Trey Flowers already came aboard this Lions defense a year ago, and now Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton and Duron Harmon follow their former teammate. Desmond Trufant and Nick Williams are also among the free agent signings that are projected to be starters in 2020. After trading star corner Darius Slay, Detroit decided to remodel this entire D, and overall I would say that they improved it mildly in the process. Rookies Jeff Okudah (CB) and Julian Okwara (EDGE) should also both log high snap counts right out of the gate. Speaking of rookies, this offensive unit doesn't change much, except at running back. Top rookie prospect D'Andre Swift joins Kerryon Johnson and the legendary Adrian Peterson. My prediction is that Johnson fades out of the spotlight quickly, with AP dominating power formations and Swift being used as more of the agile third-down threat. Once acclimated to the league, Detroit will hope that Swift eventually becomes their first 1,000 yard rusher since 2013. One more important note, this triple-threat receiver core of Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola are all playing for contracts in 2021, which is usually a positive thing so long as they stay on the field (Golladay doubtful Week 1). My main concern for the Lions is Patricia, I don't think he's a good coach, in fact, I think he's a really bad one. Can their talent exceed Patricia's flubs, or will it be another depressing season for Detroit fans?
1. Green Bay Packers (Projection: 10-6)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: D (previously C-)
IN- T Rick Wagner, LB Christian Kirksey, WR Devin Funchess (opt out), WR Robert Foster, CB Parry Nickerson, WR Allen Lazard (key re-sign)
OUT- T Bryan Bulaga, LB Blake Martinez, EDGE Kyler Fackrell, TE Jimmy Graham, LB B.J. Goodson, WR Geronimo Allison, WR Jake Kumerow, CB Tramon Williams, CB Davon House (retired), S Ibrahiem Campbell, WR Ryan Grant, FB Dan Vitale, T Jason Spriggs
OPT OUTS- WR Devin Funchess
LONG-TERM INJURIES- G Billy Turner (doubtful for week 1), DT Montravious Adams (doubtful for week 1), LB Kamal Martin (week 4)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: F
KEY PICKS- QB Jordan Love, RB A.J. Dillon, TE Josiah Deguara, LB Kamal Martin
Final Offseason Grade: D-
The Packers followed up their great offseason last year with a really poor one this time around. It's become clear that Matt LaFleur is obsessed with rebuilding his unexciting run-heavy Tennessee offense in Green Bay, as he (and GM Brian Gutekunst) have totally disregarded wide receiver needs time and time again. I'm aware that this strategy worked in 2019, but does that mean you have to avoid wide-outs like the plague again this year? I mean his entire career, Aaron Rodgers has barely had anyone to throw to. How many Super Bowls could he have won in his prime with a halfway decent core around him? Right now, it's just Davante Adams. Allen Lazard did re-sign, and I liked the Robert Foster practice squad pickup, but otherwise it's the same scrubs as last season catching passes from A-God. They actually managed to get worse at tight end too, drafting QB, RB, blocking TE/FB as their first three picks. Not only was that disrespectful to both Rodgers and running back Aaron Jones (who was tremendous in 2019), it's disrespectful to a fan base that was on the cusp of another Super Bowl appearance. All they needed was one or two more wide receivers, and they received absolutely nothing after Devin Funchess opted out (not that he was some superstar acquisition anyway). Really, it was less than nothing because Geronimo Allison also left. In terms of the rushing attack, I do think A.J. Dillon will be a tough running back. He's built like a Greek God, and I understand the appeal of drafting him, but it just wasn't a need for this franchise (who has plenty of needs by the way). Neither was Jordan Love. In terms of those holes, left tackle Bryan Bulaga is gone to name one, replaced by a much worse Rick Wagner. Middle linebacker is also a total void of talent on Green Bay's depth chart (although they did draft Kamal Martin late). Cornerback is even shallow after Zaire Alexander, and did I mention there are NO WIDE RECEIVERS behind Adams? I'm not a Packers fan even though it might seem like I am one based on my intensity here, but I really think they dropped the ball this offseason. They'll probably still win the division, mostly because this division stinks right now, but they have no shot at beating a team like San Francisco, New Orleans, or even Tampa Bay or Seattle in the playoffs.
So as you can see, I don't expect much from this division in 2020. I actually think it's the weakest NFC division by far right now. After the Packers (or whoever the winner ends up being), I don't expect any other playoff teams (even with the extra wildcard spot). I mean the only positive offseason grade here was Detroit, and it was a C+. Expect rookies to play a huge role in the NFC North in 2020, each team expects to start or utilize at least one or two first-year players in key roles. Perhaps the team that has the most success will be the one that has it's rookies provide the largest impact.
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