NFC South Preview: Brady vs Brees Round One
- iAmMizz!
- Sep 13, 2020
- 8 min read
Updated: Sep 14, 2020
The NFC South has been the New Orleans Saints' division in recent years for the most part, at least ever since the Atlanta Falcons made the Super Bowl. Last year the Saints finished 13-3, marching their way back into the playoffs. The closest competitors were the Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who both came out of 2019 at 7-9. The Carolina Panthers finished in the toilet of the division, losing eight straight to end the season at 5-11. In 2020, the South spectrum has totally changed. Tom Brady and the Bucs have been transformed into a sort of super team over night. The Falcons are healthy and looking to get back into the playoff mix. Carolina finally parted ways with Ron Rivera and now rebuilds around Matt Rhule and Teddy Bridgewater. And the Saints, well NOLA has not gone anywhere. My predictions for 2020 and the AFC and NFC Playoff recaps below, plus much more.
In case you want to look back on an article for more depth or information, provided are links to my 2020 NFL offseason free agency articles, 2020 NFL draft articles and more;
4. Carolina Panthers (Projection: 4-12)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: D
IN- QB Teddy Bridgewater, T Russell Okung, WR Robby Anderson, CB Eli Apple, G Michael Schofield, LB Tahir Whitehead, LB Adarius Glanton, WR Seth Roberts, WR Pharoh Cooper, DT Stephen Weatherly, DT Zach Kerr, CB Rasul Douglas, G John Miller, DB Juston Burris, WR Keith Kirkwood, RB Trenton Cannon, K Joey Slye (key re-sign)
OUT- LB Luke Kuechly (retired), QB Cam Newton, CB James Bradberry, G Trai Turner, EDGE Mario Addison, TE Greg Olsen, DT Gerald McCoy, G Greg Van Roten, DT Dontari Poe, S Eric Reid, DT Vernon Butler, CB Ross Cockrell, WR Chris Hogan, WR Jarius Wright, OLB Bruce Irvin, QB Kyle Allen, S Colin Jones, LB Jared Norris, OL Daryl Williams, RB Reggie Bonnafon, K Graham Gano
OPT OUTS- None
LONG-TERM INJURIES- CB Eli Apple (week 4), WR Keith Kirkwood (week 4)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: B-
KEY PICKS- DT Derrick Brown, DE Yetor Gross-Matos, S Jeremy Chinn, CB Troy Pride, S Kenny Robinson, DT Bravvion Roy
Final Offseason Grade: C-
When one team builder head coach finally departs after years with a franchise, and another team builder head coach takes his place, you can expect a ton of roster turnover. The Carolina Panthers made this transition in 2020, from Ron Rivera to Matt Rhule. Now under the former Baylor University HC, the Panthers have flipped from being one of the oldest rosters in football last year, to one of the youngest this season. The defense was the main task at hand, and Rhule went demolition style on it. Aside from Luke Kuechly retiring, most veterans were released or allowed to leave in free agency. You can see from the long list above that not too many players survived Rhule's stick of dynamite. Carolina then used their entire group of 2020 draft picks on defense, the headliners being Derrick Brown, Gross-Matos and Jeremy Chinn. I agreed that they needed to spend a majority of their picks on D, but I thought they should have allocated one or two for the offensive line, which was mostly disregarded. It was out with the old at quarterback too. Former MVP Cam Newton was cast aside, and in his place Teddy Bridgewater was reborn. I actually think this offensive unit has promise, but it will have to carry the defense this season. D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and free agent signing Robby Anderson make a decent wide receiver trio that can hit both short and long, plus Christian McCaffrey is still the most dynamic player in the NFL. The main concern is the blocking, which traded for the grizzled Russell Okung, but lost both Trai Turner and Greg Van Roten. In one of the toughest divisions in the sport, don't expect much from Carolina in year one under Rhule.
3. Atlanta Falcons (Projection: 8-8)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: C-
IN- RB Todd Gurley, EDGE Dante Fowler, TE Hayden Hurst, CB Darqueze Dennard, EDGE Charles Harris, OL Justin McCray, K Younghoe Koo (key re-sign)
OUT- TE Austin Hooper, CB Desmond Trufant, RB Devonta Freeman, LB De'Vondre Campbell, EDGE Vic Beasley, EDGE Adrian Clayborn, WR Justin Hardy, OL Jamon Brown, DT Jack Crawford, G Wes Schweitzer, T Ty Sambrailo, CB Jamar Taylor, S Jonathan Cyprien, S/LB Kemal Ismael, P Matt Bosher, P Ryan Allen
OPT OUTS- None
LONG-TERM INJURIES- DB Kendall Sheffield (week 2), EDGE Charles Harris (week 2)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: B-
KEY PICKS- CB A.J. Terrell, DT Marlon Davidson, G/C Matt Hennessy, LB Mykal Walker, DB Jaylinn Hawkins, P Sterling Hofrichter
Final Offseason Grade: C+
I wasn't crazy about the Falcons offseason, mostly because I feel like they were caught in the middle between getting younger for the future (after Brees and Brady retire) like the Panthers, and going all in right now like the Bucs. Atlanta made a lot of 50/50 moves instead. On defense they shedded cap and ousted injury-prone stars of years past like Desmond Trufant and Vic Beasley. Also on the way out was De'Vondre Campbell and Adrian Clayborn among other depth players. Aside from Dante Fowler and late addition Darqueze Dennard, they then replaced most of those departures with rookie talent (corner A.J. Terrell and DT Marlon Davidson). I thought the Falcons really wanted C.J. Henderson in the draft, but got caught reaching on Terrell after corners started to leave the board early. We'll see how the first-year player fares in year one. On offense, the O-Line remains a concern. Rookie Matt Hennessy may start in place of James Carpenter, but that would make three inexperienced starters including their two first round picks last season. Right guard Chris Lindstrom looks to be the most reliable of the group so far. Atlanta also picked up Todd Gurley to replace Devonta Freeman on a value deal, but they downgraded at tight end with Hayden Hurst in place of Austin Hooper. When healthy, I still believe this offense is one of the better units in football, but the Falcons injury red flags on both sides of the ball are hard to ignore. Because of this, and a lack of roster depth to fill those holes, I don't think Atlanta can compete with New Orleans and Tampa Bay over the course of an entire season. They should be in the running for the wild card, but the smarter move may have been to look towards 2022.
2. New Orleans Saints (Projection: 13-3, WC)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: B+ (previously A)
IN- S Malcolm Jenkins, WR Emmanuel Sanders, QB Jameis Winston, RB Ty Montgomery, G James Hurst, WR Maurice Harris, FB Mike Burton, QB Drew Brees (key re-sign), CB Janoris Jenkins (key re-sign), DT David Onyemata (key re-sign)
OUT- G Larry Warford, LB A.J. Klein, S Vonn Bell, CB Eli Apple, QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Ted Ginn, DT Mario Edwards, TE Garrett Griffin, WR Keith Kirkwood, RB Zach Line (retired), LB Josh Martin, LB Manti Te'o, LB Stephone Anthony
OPT OUTS- G Larry Warford (post-release)
LONG-TERM INJURIES- G Cesar Ruiz (week 2), DL Marcus Davenport (week 2), LB Kiko Alonso (week 8), DB Johnson Bademosi (IR), RB Dwayne Washington (Covid)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: B- (previously B)
KEY PICKS- G/C Cesar Ruiz, LB Zach Baun, TE Adam Trautman
Final Offseason Grade: B
The Saints usually don't make too many waves over the offseason, but the transactions that they do make are both compact and efficient, always. This year was no different. Veteran safety Malcolm Jenkins and veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders were the too missing ingredients for this Super Bowl roster in 2020. Another set of sturdy hands for Brees (who re-signed for two years) to throw to, and another experienced player to add to this secondary. Aside from that and getting Alvin Kamara locked up long-term, they were quiet. Getting 2019 rental Janoris Jenkins back was a key move in my opinion, and Jameis Winston replaces Bridgewater as Brees' understudy, but for the most part New Orleans knows they aren't missing too much. One interesting area to watch this season will be guard. The Saints elected to cut Larry Warford, who ended up opting out anyway, in favor of rookie Cesar Ruiz. They also decided to bring back Andrus Peat. This normally top-ranked O-Line is always looking to the future, and could end up being just as good or better with Ruiz, but Warford was coming off an efficient season so this move was somewhat surprising. I have the Saints beating the Bucs Week 1, but losing to them later on in Tampa. In the end, the Bucs won the tiebreaker for the division over NOLA by NFC South record, but expect this race to be neck-and-neck all Fall. Both are definite Super Bowl contenders in my eyes.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Projection: 13-3)
NightCap Free Agency Grade: B+
IN- QB Tom Brady, RB Leonard Fournette, TE Rob Gronkowski, RB LeSean McCoy, C A.Q. Shipley, T Joe Haeg, EDGE Shaq Barrett (key tag), EDGE Jason Pierre-Paul (key re-sign), DT Ndamukong Suh (key re-sign), K Ryan Succop
OUT- QB Jameis Winston, WR Breshad Perriman, RB Peyton Barber, EDGE Carl Nassib, DT Beau Allen, T Demar Dotson, CB M.J. Stewart, G Earl Watford, RB Dare Ogunbowale, EDGE Sam Acho, S Darian Stewart, DT Kyle Love, K Matt Gay
OPT OUTS- None
LONG-TERM INJURIES- WR Mike Evans (strong questionable for week 1), S Justin Evans (week 8)
NightCap NFL Draft Grade: B+
KEY PICKS- T Tristan Wirfs, S Antoine Winfield, RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn, WR Tyler Johnson
Final Offseason Grade: B+
I liked the Bruce Arians hire in 2019, but the new TB head coach needed a reliable quarterback to rally around. Arians isn't known for his long tenures with franchises. He likes to come in and go for Super Bowls, and he knew he couldn't do that with Jameis Winston after the erratic QB led the league in turnovers in 2019. Once the dominoes began to fall, it became no surprise that Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs were the perfect fit. Brady wanted a new challenge, but he also wanted weapons and proper payment. Tampa Bay had both ready to go. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, Scott Miller, Justin Watson, Cameron Brate and Ronald Jones already on the roster, Brady inked his decision. Since then, he's managed to pull in Rob Gronkowski out of retirement, Leonard Fournette off a tumultuous stay in Jacksonville, and veteran LeSean McCoy. This offense is now STACKED, especially since tackle Tristan Wirfs managed to fall to the Bucs in the draft. Although the offensive line is still probably the largest concern, Brady's pocket presence has always helped his blockers throughout his career. I don't foresee this being a huge issue in 2020. The defense was also extremely underrated last year. They had one of the top pass rushes in football and a stout number one ranked run defense led by Suh and Vita Vea. Former Jets head coach Todd Bowles is still one of the best defensive coordinators in the game today, and he leads this unit which is a little weak at secondary, but did add Antoine Winfield Jr. at safety in the draft.
In the end the Bucs just had the slightly easier third place schedule, which allowed them to secure the NFC South title for the first time since 2007. The Saints and Bucs battle for supremacy may be the most exciting story to watch in all of football this season. The Falcons should contend for a wildcard, but I can't trust their tough schedule and injury concerns so I have them coming up just short again.
To sum up my 2020 NFL Playoffs picks, I have the Baltimore Ravens winning the AFC North and securing the number one seed. The Kansas City Chiefs then follow, with the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans rounding out the division winners. Two wildcards will them come out of the AFC North this year (Browns and Steelers, switching my tiebreaker for the final wildcard from the Texans to the Steelers, Jets also in the tiebreaker mix), with the other wildcard being the Indianapolis Colts. In the NFC, the Bucs and Saints will headline the conference, followed by the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. The Green Bay Packers will take the number four seed and play the Saints, with the other two wildcards slotting in as the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals (in a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Philadelphia Eagles). Playoffs picks to come! Enjoy NFL Week 1!
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