Fantasy Football PREP: Team D/ST, Double Up & Dominate (+Kickers)
- iAmMizz!
- Sep 2, 2020
- 13 min read
My 2019 Team D/ST sleepers & busts article yielded hit or miss results, which contributed to my decision to change the way I thought about the position. With how often fantasy managers sign and drop sturdy defenses week-to-week, wasting waivers and fighting over a sleeper matchups like stray dogs over a scrap of meat, I realized that it's much smarter to employ a two-defense strategy. I have to admit that I got the idea from a friend, but I started employing the two-D/ST strategy down the stretch last season and had tremendous results with it (after a first half of failed sleepers and a constant hole in my lineup).
I highlighted the full plan last Winter, but basically the idea is that you draft two defenses. One higher status D/ST that you feel is generally reliable (the hope is you keep this "A Unit" most of the season), and one low status D/ST based solely on their upcoming schedule ("B Unit"). This second D/ST slot is the revolving door slot, which you can replace anytime you please with those sleeper matchups against pitiful offenses (remember how the Patriots D beat up on weak offenses during the first half of last season). Sometimes (if you're planning to start your A Unit that week anyway) you can even sign a sleeper candidate a week or two in advance to avoid bidding for them on waivers. Now with the Covid factor and bench space being more valuable than ever, this may not be the best season to attempt this strategy (especially if your league is only 10-12 teams or if you only have three or four bench spots to work with), but if you are in a 14-16 team league and you have five-plus bench spots I highly recommend taking it for a spin. It legitimately works. No longer will you get negative points from your defense, no longer will you get stuck with a risky play in a key week, and no longer will you waste high waivers on a defensive "flavor of the week."
Every spot in your fantasy lineup is CRUCIAL. Too many managers undervalue their defense, even though it ends up costing them wins more often than not. Too many managers also release or give up on sturdy defenses too early because they want to sign a one week solution. Don't waste this position in 2020. It's time to double up on defense and dominate.
My 2020 Team D/ST Draft Metrics:
Pre-Draft Rank (always)
Consistency/History/Roster Depth (all factors in choosing your A Unit, you want a roster with players you can rely on, and depth in case stars go down)
Coaching (Gregg Williams performance with a Jets group of nobodies is a perfect 2019 example of why coaching matters for defense, Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick are consistent examples of this as well)
Offensive Unit (if your D is always on the field, or constantly put in bad situations after turnovers, this hurts its overall value... think Bears D in 2019)
Upcoming Schedule (very important when deciding on your B Unit, but should also take into consideration overall strength of schedule and divisional opponents in general)
**As usual, I will use the ESPN projected ranks to highlight targets, sleepers and busts. The format for this breakdown will correspond to a 16-team draft and the score settings below:
ALL D/ST TD's: +6, Sack: +1.2, Interception: +2, Fumble Recovered: +2, Block: +2
Safety: +2, 1pt Safety: +0.5, 2pt Return: +1
(Points Allowed) 0: +12, 1-6: +6, 7-13: +3, 14-17: +1.5, 18-21: +0
(Negative Points Allowed) 22-27: -1.5, 28-34: -3, 35-45: -6, 46+: -12
Previous 2020 Fantasy Football Previews: Quarterbacks, WR Top50, WR DeepDive, Tight Ends
2020 Team D/ST Ranks
PLATINUM Draft Status (Proj. Round 10 or Earlier)
Key: Position Rank/Total Rank. Team D/ST (projected points) [2019 position rank]
1/169. Pittsburgh Steelers (139.2) [2]: (TARGET) Out of these top four defenses, you really can't go wrong in my opinion. The question is, which do you draft first if you have the choice (this actually happened to me during my first draft). I didn't go with the Steelers in the moment because of their inconsistent offense, but even at its worst last year the Steelers D finished second in points so maybe that was a foolish way to go about it. Number one in sacks in 2019, Pittsburgh's new Steel Curtain was able to retain Bud Dupree on the edge (tag-teamed with T.J. Watt), although they did take a hit when they lost Javon Hargrave. They do face deep CLE and BAL offenses twice.
2/170. Buffalo Bills (136.1) [7]: (TARGET) Buffalo doesn't really light up the stat sheet, which is why I also did not select them first, but they are a built like a house of bricks. Second in points allowed last year, the Bills' system does not budge in its own half of the field, and while they did lose one or two veterans like Lorenzo Alexander (retired) and Star Lotulelei (opt out), they were able to quickly fill any gaps that arose. Their weak schedule skyrockets their value.
3/171. San Francisco 49ers (132.7) [4]: (TARGET) I ended up drafting San Francisco first in that league I brought up above. To be honest, it was an early draft and I hadn't done much research yet so I just went with the option I felt was the safest. First rounder Javon Kinlaw will play the role of DeForest Buckner this season, but otherwise nothing changed whatsoever for the NFC Champs' unit. If the offense can move the football like they did last season, this D/ST should be fine. I still like the Niners, but if I could go back I might have went Bills D instead, because of their schedule.
4/172. Baltimore Ravens (123.9) [3]: (TARGET) I like the Ravens D because their ground-and-pound offense should keep them off the field. Don't sleep on the talent here either. Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith make one of the best CB crews in the league, and Calais Campbell/Derek Wolfe join the D-Line to take over for Michael Pierce. Finally, draft picks Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison revitalize a linebacker core that struggled last season. Like I said before, you really can't go wrong with any of these top four D/ST's this year, but if I had to rank them now I would probably go; Buffalo (1), San Francisco (2), Baltimore (3), Pittsburgh (4)... mostly due to scheduling and divisional set ups.
GOLD Draft Status (Proj. Round 10-11)
5/173. New England Patriots (118.4) [1]: (BUST) I should never doubt Bill Belichick's ability to make things happen in an incredibly weak AFC East, but 50 percent of New England's defensive starters either signed elsewhere or opted out. Left are either rookies or second-years, Stephon Gilmore and the McCourty twins... and not much else. Oh by the way, this New England offense may be a good deal worse in 2020 too, good luck Bill B.
6/174. Indianapolis Colts (125.7) [13]: (TARGET) Two under-the-radar moves of the Colts' offseason were trading for DeForest Buckner (a true game-changer at DT) and signing safety Tavon Wilson late in free agency. They also take a chance on Xavier Rhodes having a bounce-back season at corner. I'm not sure what happened to free agent edge rusher Jabaal Sheard, who has dropped off the face of the planet, but Indy will need someone to step up and replace his influence. I don't love this defense as a whole, but they have the easiest schedule I've seen so far, and playmakers like Darius Leonard can capitalize on that.
7/175. Denver Broncos (122.8) [17]: (TARGET) To me, this Broncos D is average and this rank might be higher than they deserve, but they do check a lot of the boxes. Great coaching (Vic Fangio, former Bears coordinator at their peak), a challenge to score on at home, star power (Von Miller, Justin Simmons, Bradley Chubb, A.J. Bouye, Jurrell Casey), and a very favorable schedule (aside from the games against Kansas City, avoid those).
8/176. Chicago Bears (108.9) [18]: (BUST) I can't trust this Bears unit to rekindle the magic of 2018 until their offense shows some life. Not to mention Clinton-Dix, Leonard Floyd, Nick Kwiatkoski and Nick Williams are all amongst the departures. Robert Quinn does join Chicago, but the Eddie Goldman opt out counters that and leaves a crater-sized hole at DT.
9/177. New Orleans Saints (118.1) [10]: (TARGET) NOLA plays a boring but consistent style of defense. Brees generally controls the tempo and players like Cameron Jordan, Marshon Lattimore, Demario Davis and Marcus Williams are sneaky talented. Keeping Janoris Jenkins and signing Malcolm Jenkins only adds to their secondary depth as a lower end A Unit.
10/178. Minnesota Vikings (122.2) [5]: (WATCH LIST) I'll take a wait-and-see approach with Minnesota, who purged themselves of most of their veteran contracts on defense this offseason. The Yannick Ngakoue trade definitely helps, but the Michael Pierce opt out does not. This Vikings defense could either be as sturdy as always or a major bust, depending on how their many rookies perform in key roles like CB and interior D-Line.
11/179. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (112.1) [11]: (SLEEPER) Probably the most surprising defensive sleeper in 2019, Todd Bowles' unit was well-coached and ferocious off the edge (#1 in QB knock-downs). Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul are both returning to continue their reign of terror. They also became stout against the run behind Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea. While the only addition of note was rookie safety Antoine Winfield Jr., this defense should jump into the top 10 because of Tom Brady. Jameis Winston led the league in turnovers last year, which constantly put Tampa Bay in tougher situations. Brady won't do that, making TB one of my red alert sleepers.
12/180. Los Angeles Chargers (113.7) [26]: (BUST) Derwin James' season-ending injury reminded me how fragile the Chargers players seem to be every year. Even with Chris Harris, Linval Joseph and first rounder Kenneth Murray joining LAC, this defense may get tired from logging too many heavy minutes... aka the Chargers O may hold them back. Side note, I actually love them Week 1 against the Bengals, but you can drop them after that.
SILVER Draft Status (Proj. Rounds 12-End of Draft)
13/221. Dallas Cowboys (117.8) [20]: (MATCHUP SLEEPER) The Cowboys made splashes at safety (Ha Ha Clinton-Dix) and edge rusher (Everson Griffen, Aldon Smith), but never did really fix the issue created by Byron Jones leaving town. Will second rounder Trevon Diggs start in his place? Gerald McCoy's season-ending injury was also a key loss. I think this rank is a bit high for Dallas, even if they are an offensive powerhouse, and I see them as no more than a B Unit.
14/222. Seattle Seahawks (115.5) [15]: (SLEEPER) Seattle was third in takeaways in 2019, and that was before they acquired Jamal Adams. This is a well-coached defensive side with a famous identity and a chilly home advantage. Clowney never did re-sign, but rookies Jordyn Brooks, Darrell Taylor and Alton Robinson will look to make an impact in his stead.
15/253. Cincinnati Bengals (92.7) [30]: (AVOID) I really like what the Bengals did on the defensive side this offseason, bringing in D.J. Reader, Trae Waynes, Vonn Bell and more. Waynes could miss some time, but they made positive strides. Still, rookie QB's make a lot of mistakes, especially playing behind an O-Line this atrocious. Those mistakes will likely wear on this defense.
16/254. Los Angeles Rams (93.2) [9]: (MATCHUP SLEEPER) This defense has managed to tread water, mainly because of Aaron Donald's sheer strength of will. Jalen Ramsey and Donald actually make one of the most dynamic defensive duos in the NFL, but the roster has been castrated around them due to lack of funds. Weddle, Littleton, Robey-Coleman, Fowler... all gone heading into 2020. Against the right opponent, the Rams D can still make some noise, but be selective.
17/286. Detroit Lions (108.8) [28]: (WATCH LIST) The Lions gave up the second most yards last year, and the seventh most points. While I do expect their team to be better as a whole with Stafford back, I don't trust Matt Patricia as the coach. First round talent Jeff Okudah and veteran Desmond Trufant will attempt to fill the void left by Darius Slay. Jamie Collins also joined his old coordinator, plus Detroit decided to demolish their D-Line and start fresh. Not ready to deem them a B Unit until I see it with my own eyes, but Week 1 vs CHI could be a nice start.
18/287. Kansas City Chiefs (102.5) [6]: (MATCHUP SLEEPER) Let's get one thing straight, this is a bad defense... one that got even worse when it lost Kendall Fuller and didn't bother to replace him. This is not a bad fantasy defense however, because it does three things; force turnovers, score special teams touchdowns, and win the field position battle daily behind Mahomes.
19/298. Cleveland Browns (103.2) [22]: (AVOID) One of my top sleepers last year that went bust was Cleveland. I totally forgot to take coaching into account, and Gregg Williams departure proved fatal for this unit. With a whole lot of injuries already, I'm steering clear this time.
20/299. Philadelphia Eagles (103.9) [14]: (MATCHUP SLEEPER) Love the additions of Darius Slay, Javon Hargrave and Nickell Robey-Coleman. Also liking their early opposing schedule as a draftable D/ST (W.F.T., LAR, CIN with NYGx2, PIT, W.F.T. again later on).
21/300. New York Jets (80.2) [12]: (MATCHUP SLEEPER) Definitely not an A Unit now that C.J. Mosley has opted out, but with Gregg Williams as the D-Coordinator this group will never embarrass NY fans. The bigger question is whether or not this offense can move the ball. Avoid them out of the gates, but consider some of their matchups after Week 2 (NEx2, MIAx2, IND, LAC, DEN, LVR) as playable.
22/301. Tennessee Titans (97.9) [8]: (SLEEPER) I'm surprised by this rank. Tennessee was a top 10 defense last year and they didn't really lose much without replacing it. Logan Ryan walked, but Jonathan Joseph and rookie Kristian Fulton bulked the CB core. Cameron Wake was let go, but a younger Vic Beasley joined the Titans. Jurrell Casey was the only loss that was not replaced, but a late Jadeveon Clowney signing could still remedy that. "A" Unit either way.
BRONZE aka BOTTOM OF THE BARREL (Proj. to be Undrafted)
23/361. Miami Dolphins (95.6) [32]: (MATCHUP SLEEPER) Miami spent BIG money (Byron Jones, Shaq Lawson, Kyle Van Noy) and draft picks (Noah Igbinoghene, Raekwon Davis, Brandon Jones) on their defense this Spring. Being that Brian Flores exceeded expectations with absolutely nothing last season, and this AFC East may be the worst offensive division in the NFL in 2020, the Dolphins become a fantasy option just one year after being a D/ST32. If you're feeling ballsy, Week 1 at New England could even be a nice play with a rusty Cam Newton under center.
24/362. Houston Texans (89.6) [21]: (AVOID) This once-feared defensive unit has slowly crumbled over the last few years as management has done very little to sustain it. D.J. Reader and Jonathan Joseph are the latest blows in a long list of departures over that span. So long as Watt and Mercilus are healthy, this team can still rush the QB in bursts, but that's about all they can do.
25/363. Green Bay Packers (96.7) [16]: (MATCHUP SLEEPER) I had Green Bay as a deep sleeper last year and they lived up to that title in the first half of 2019. Then in the second half, things fell apart. They managed to get worse over the offseason, but only mildly. Still, there are moments on the Packers schedule that I could see them being a fantasy option (JAX, CHIx2, CAR, IND), just not a team to draft as all these games are later on.
26/364. Las Vegas Raiders (88.5) [29]: (AVOID) The Raiders D was porous at times last season, and they made a ton of changes over the offseason to try and reconcile that. Cory Littleton, Damarious Randall, Raekwon McMillan, Maliek Collins and first rounder Damon Arnette were among those brought in. With a tough schedule and a new group that'll take time to gel, I wouldn't bet on the Vegas D being much better than the Oakland one.
27/365. Arizona Cardinals (87.2) [31]: (AVOID) Swiss army knife rookie Isaiah Simmons plus a full season of Patrick Peterson will help the Cardinals D (most yards against in 2019) improve, but in a deadly NFC West division I see them getting into shootouts more often than not.
28/366. Jacksonville Jaguars (77.9) [19]: (AVOID) This organization is clearly tanking, even if the coaches and players are not. It may not be long before they start to give up on the season too.
29/367. Washington Football Team (76.8) [23]: (MATCHUP SLEEPER) Not necessarily to start the season, but the W.F.T. has a foundation on the defensive line that is one of the most underrated in football. They also brought in both Ronald Darby and Kendall Fuller to start at corner, along with veteran Thomas Davis at linebacker. Ron Rivera will help elevate this bunch, who could become a decent B Unit option during certain stretches of their season (NYGx2, CIN, PIT, CAR).
30/368. Atlanta Falcons (80.7) [24]: (AVOID) The Falcons didn't move the needle as a fantasy performer last season and aside from getting a little younger and hopefully healthier, not much has improved about their defense. The NFC South may also be a division to avoid for D/ST.
31/369. New York Giants (73.2) [27]: (AVOID) The Giants have made massive improvements to this unit (James Bradberry, Blake Martinez, Kyler Fackrell), including the addition of Logan Ryan days ago. Unfortunately, they have a very tough schedule and not a ton of time to build chemistry together on either side of the ball.
32/370. Carolina Panthers (68) [25]: (AVOID) Lots of rookies starting on a defense that will likely face Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Matt Ryan in six of their games.
So let's recap...
A Unit Targets: Buffalo, San Francisco, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Denver, Minnesota (maybe)
A Unit Sleepers: Tampa Bay, Seattle, Tennessee
B Unit Matchup Sleepers: Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, NY Jets, Miami, LA Rams, Green Bay, Washington, Detroit (maybe)
Get your defenses while you can, this year may not have too many consistent ones and you do not want to be left scraping that bottom of the barrel group for points every week.
My 2020 Top 10 Kickers
Key: My Rank. Pre-Draft Rank- Player Name, Team (projected points) [2019 position rank]
181- Justin Tucker, Ravens (110.8) [3]: Top kicker in a class of his own. Now that Baltimore has a juggernaut offense again, you can't go wrong with Tucker.
183- Wil Lutz, Saints (109.7) [1]: This Saints offense is a machine, and Lutz kicks in a dome half the time, making his and your life easier.
182- Harrison Butker, Chiefs (111.1) [2]: This top three is pretty standard, another powerhouse offense with a kicker who can drill it from anywhere.
185- Greg Zuerlein, Cowboys (91.5) [8]: Big Z isn't as accurate as those top three, but Dallas is poised to have a consistent offensive unit, and he still has a monster leg.
184- Matt Prater, Lions (101.3) [4]: Pretty chalk so far, but I like the Lions offense so long as Stafford is at QB, and Prater has proven himself as a top fantasy performer most seasons.
188- Matt Gay/Ryan Succop, Buccaneers (93.3) [5]: Be careful with this one, as Coach Arians may end up cutting loose Gay for the veteran late in camp. Whoever the starter is though, Brady's kickers are usually a slam dunk for points.
189- Zane Gonzalez, Cardinals (90.2) [T--9]: Gonzalez is coming off his best season, so he could be setting me up for a bust year, but Arizona should score points which gives Zane a lot of value so long as he's halfway decent again.
289- Brandon McManus, Broncos (93.2) [7]: First major deviation, but McManus has a surprisingly low rank for a kicker that usually finishes in the top 10, on an offense that improved mightily this offseason.
224- Mason Crosby, Packers (93.4) [13]: Another deviation, but Crosby is always a sturdy choice, just like this Packers' offense.
192- Austin Seibert, Browns (95.6) [20]: Big leap of faith here, but I like the look of the Browns' offense in 2020, and Seibert was solid as a rookie.
Honorable Mentions: Josh Lambo (JAX), Robbie Gould (SF), Chris Boswell (PIT), Dan Bailey (MIN), Younghoe Koo (ATL), Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU), Chase McLaughlin (IND), Jason Myers (SEA)
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