Fantasy Football PREP: Tight End, Prioritizing Consistency
- iAmMizz!
- Aug 31, 2020
- 11 min read
Back in Winter we discussed whether or not the tight end position was a dying breed in fantasy, but I don't believe it is. I still think that there is hope for its depth, which was less reliable than usual in 2019, and I still think that the position deserves its own starting spot in fantasy lineups. As always, we as managers just have to adjust our strategy and our line of thinking.
A year ago I wrote a TE fantasy preview titled "Draft High or Let It Ride." I was on the right track with this idea, of either prioritizing an elite tight end with a high pick or waiting till the lower rounds to test your luck on a sleeper, but my strategy could use some fine-tuning. I now think that it is imperative to look consistency at the tight end position, adding a disclaimer that rookie TE's should no longer ever be considered sleepers (learned my lesson with T.J. Hockenson). The season is too short to wait on a TE that may have a few killer weeks. Instead, I would rather draft a player that I know is going to stay healthy and that's usually good for 8-12 points every time out. By prioritizing consistency at this position rather than sleepers (which I feel more confident finding at WR, QB, or even RB), I should be able to succeed on my one paramount goal when it comes to tight ends in 2020, DON'T GET BURNED!
My 2020 Tight End Draft Metrics:
Pre-Draft Rank (always)
Style of Tight End (you obviously want the TE's used on receiving sets most times)
Quarterback (some QB's are TE friendly QB's, some aren't, usually their history can point you in the right direction)
Targets Per Game (is the TE a valued part of this team's receiving game, or an afterthought?)
Red Zone Threat (touchdowns are a major part of a TE's fantasy output)
Injury/Covid Risk (I'm more looking injury history for the TE position, any red flags and I'm out... no exceptions, some of these guys get hurt far too often)
**As usual, I will use the ESPN projected ranks to highlight targets, sleepers and busts. The format for this breakdown will correspond to a 16-team draft and the score settings below:
ALL TD's: +6, Per Rush/Receiving Yard: +0.1, PPR: +0.5
Bonus: 200+rushing/receiving: +2, ALL 2PC's: +1
Previous 2020 Fantasy Football Previews: Quarterbacks, WR Top50, WR DeepDive
2020 Tight End Ranks
PLATINUM Draft Status (Proj. Rounds 1-2)
Key: Position Rank/Total Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points) [2019 position rank]
1/20. Travis Kelce, Chiefs (208.8) [1]: (TARGET) George Kittle is probably the best all-around tight end in the game, but Kelce is definitely the better receiving/fantasy TE as he plays with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. 97 catches on 136 targets with 1,229 yards and 6 total TD's (one rushing) is pretty much unbeatable, let's face it.
2/23. George Kittle, 49ers (182.6) [2]: (TARGET) Kittle is battling a hamstring problem in camp, otherwise he's the clear number two at tight end. The Niners' superstar is a straight up beast, and with their receiving core on crutches heading into Week 1, he should get a high dosage of targets.
GOLD Draft Status (Proj. Rounds 3-6)
3/41. Mark Andrews, Ravens (165.6) [4]: (TARGET) If you want consistency, but don't necessarily want to spend one of your top draft picks on a tight end, MAN-Drews could be your guy. Lamar Jackson loves hitting him off the play action, and he's a vital part of this Ravens offense with 10 receiving touchdowns in 2019.
4/42. Zach Ertz, Eagles (161.2) [5]: (TARGET) Nothing wrong with any of these top options if you're sticking with the "draft a TE early" strategy, especially Ertz, who is a favorite target of Carson Wentz. The Eagles stalwart is actually the only tight end to average more targets per game than Kelce last year with 9.0.
5/69. Darren Waller, Raiders (150.5) [3]: (UNSURE) While I like Waller's talent and I appreciate the fact that Carr has been a tight end QB throughout his career, the addition of veteran Jason Witten and the growth of Foster Moreau could hinder his snap count.
6/82. Evan Engram, Giants (134.4) [19]: (AVOID/BUST) Like I said, I'm avoiding tight ends with injury histories like the plague and Engram is almost a guarantee to miss games at some point. It's incredible that people are still drafting him this high after the constant let-downs.
7/83. Tyler Higbee, Rams (130.5) [8]: (AVOID/BUST) I was fortunate enough to pick up Higbee just before his scorching hot streak to finish last season, but even so I do not recommend drafting him off this inflated rank. The Rams alternate Higbee with Gerald Everett often, and the former could quickly go back to being a waiver wire candidate after a slow start.
SILVER Draft Status (Proj. Rounds 7-11)
8/110. Hunter Henry, Chargers (118.6) [9]: (AVOID) Henry's situation is great, the Chargers have no prominent receivers outside of Keenan Allen and a banged up Mike Williams, but a rule's a rule. Too many uncertainties with his injury history and the fact that we still don't know who his quarterback is.
9/111. Jared Cook, Saints (126.5) [7]: (TARGET) Cook burned me in two different leagues last year with a slow start getting acclimated to the New Orleans offense. Will I draft him again? Probably not, but solely for petty reasons. Cook's chemistry with Brees heated up in the second half of 2019 with 10-plus points in seven out of the Saints' last eight games, and this is still an offense you want to be a part of once it starts clicking. Target away.
10/112. Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers (114) [DNP]: (AVOID/BUST) Crowded offense, and there is no telling what kind of shape Gronk will be in after a year on the shelf. Injury risk here is high.
11/113. Noah Fant, Broncos (116) [17]: (AVOID) The athletic rookie was prone to boom or bust performances with Denver last season. Until he can show me some consistency, and more targets from Drew Lock (4.1 per game on a weak Broncos' offense), I'll wait on drafting Noah Fant.
12/114. Hayden Hurst, Falcons (115.7) [T--34]: (SLEEPER/TARGET) Here is one place I would be willing to take a risk. We know that Hayden Hurst can play, even if he was overshadowed by Andrews' breakout in Baltimore. Now he just became Austin Hooper's starting replacement (with little competition around him) in Atlanta. The former first rounder is an every down type of player and Matt Ryan absolutely FEEDS his TE's every season (Hooper had 97 targets for the Falcons in 2019). Hurst is worth taking a chance on.
13/115. T.J. Hockenson, Lions (114.8) [32]: (AVOID) Similar to Fant, the 2019 top ten pick hasn't proven anything to me yet. So far he's averaged 5.4 PPG in his rookie year, he has a bum ankle entering year two, and Stafford has yet to develop any chemistry with him. Next!
14/134. Mike Gesicki, Dolphins (111.5) [11]: (TARGET) Gesicki was a touted prospect out of college, but Miami waited a year to give him a starter's workload. Finishing last season as a TE11, the Dolphins second-year pro was a consistent piece in an inconsistent unit. His average PPG and targets were both a tad low for my liking, but he shouldn't burn you.
15/135. Chris Herndon, Jets (107) [111]: (RISKY SLEEPER) If you are drafting by my strategy, there are safer options than Herndon, who ended up taking 2019 off after starting the year on a suspension and returning from it in unfit condition to play. He finished the year with an injury after briefly touching the field, completing the trifecta of disaster. Still, Sam Darnold doesn't have many viable options to throw the ball to, and the two had a strong bond through the air during their rookie campaigns. If they can rekindle it, Herndon might become a player you want in 2020.
16/136. Austin Hooper, Browns (105.8) [6]: (SLEEPER/TARGET) This ranking is pretty absurd. I understand that Hooper is learning a new offense in Cleveland, but I doubt they would have spent all that money on him if they didn't plan to utilize him heavily in it. Keep in mind that the Browns have a new head coach too, Kevin Stefanski, and his offense utilized tight ends plenty in Minnesota. If that's not enough, Hooper supposedly lived with Baker Mayfield for a month or two during quarantine, just to develop a rapport with his new QB... now that's dedication.
17/161. Jack Doyle, Colts (104.7) [18]: (TARGET) With Ebron signing in Pittsburgh and Rivers taking over in Indy, Doyle should see his production go back up in 2020. I do worry about his neck problems in preseason however.
18/162. Eric Ebron, Steelers (95.8) [28]: (UNSURE) Speaking of Ebron, the big red zone target has fallen into a decent landing spot with Ben Roethlisberger and a lackluster Steelers unit. He should see plenty of targets so long as Vance McDonald doesn't get in his way. I feel this is a good value for the sometimes spectacular receiving TE, but even so I'm not sure I'd be willing to take the chance with him as my starter (too many injuries and drops in the past).
19/163. Jonnu Smith, Titans (93.2) [20]: (TARGET) Smith showed Mike Vrabel and the Titans that he could be the starter in 2019, and so they let Delanie Walker go. When they aren't running the ball, this offense does not have many great weapons (A.J. Brown, Adam Humphries, Corey Davis--sometimes)... I expect Jonnu to be a consistent contributor, which I like.
BRONZE Draft Status (Proj. Rounds 12-End)
20/193. Dallas Goedert, Eagles (92.2) [10]: (WATCH LIST) The top back-up tight end in the league, Goedert is definitely worth rostering in deeper leagues (finished 10th in TE points last year), but he can be pretty reliant on the touchdown with Ertz stealing most of his targets.
21/210. Blake Jarwin, Cowboys (91.8) [29]: (WATCH LIST) In the same role on the Dallas offense, the recently retired Jason Witten performed admirably in fantasy last season. Blake Jarwin is no Witten however, even if he is a good deal younger. I wouldn't draft him, but he's a solid option to keep on your short list.
22/211. Irv Smith Jr., Vikings (88.5) [36]: (AVOID) With Kyle Rudolph clogging up space in this unit for another year, it takes away any value Irv Smith Jr. might have had.
23/246. Jace Sternberger, Packers (82.5) [119]: (RISKY SLEEPER) After an injury caused him to red-shirt most of his rookie campaign, Sternberger went without a catch in 2019. Now he's the main receiving tight end in an offense that is void of talented weapons. As a watch list pickup or a really late round depth option, I'm okay with rolling the dice on Jace (who's competing with has-been Mercedes Lewis for touches), but don't be surprised if he ends up being a dud either.
24/247. Jimmy Graham, Bears (89.5) [22]: (BUST) Jimmy Graham is aging fast, and top 2020 draft prospect Cole Kmet is right on his heels in Chicago.
25/248. Ian Thomas, Panthers (78.2) [55]: (UNSURE) Definitely would not draft Ian Thomas, but he is the clear-cut starter in Carolina. It will all depend on whether Teddy Bridgewater throws him the ball or not.
26/249. Tyler Eifert, Jaguars (86.1) [21]: (BUST) I'm surprised Eifert landed a starting role, although it might not be long before someone like James O'Shaughnessy supplants him. The oft-injured long-time Bengal will most likely bounce around free agency this fantasy season. 27/257. Dawson Knox, Bills (79.8) [31]: (RISKY SLEEPER) Knox has potential, certainly more than some of these other guys at least. I just worry that this Buffalo offense got a little too bulky for him to shine in 2020 (deep receiving core). Needs more targets to become a viable starter.
28/258. Taysom Hill, Saints (64.9) [16]: (RISKY SLEEPER) So you're telling me that Taysom Hill would have ranked 16th for tight ends if he had the eligibility in 2019? That's statistically a starter-level value in my league. The QB/Flex is obviously reliant on trick plays and touchdowns to score points, and pretty much a shot in the dark each and every week, but in a pinch you might as well take a spin and let it ride if you need someone.
29/259. Greg Olsen, Seahawks (64.7) [13]: (SLEEPER/TARGET) Olsen was good last year, like actually solid. Now he's on a better team with a much better quarterback. He's always one more injury away from his cushy job in the booth (and Will Dissly's return plus Jacob Hollister's role are certainly hindrances), but at this value you really can't go wrong with the veteran.
30/290. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (75.6) [14]: (BUST) Rudolph was also surprisingly capable in 2019, but his points came mostly on touchdowns. I can't rely on that type of player week-to-week, and this may finally be the year that Irv Smith takes over.
31/291. Will Dissly, Seahawks (77.3) [T--34]: (WATCH LIST) Dissly was a force early on last season, with four straight weeks over 10 points (19.5 high) from Week 2-5 before tearing his Achilles. He probably won't be ready for Week 1, and even if he is, Greg Olsen will start as they ease the younger TE back into the swing of things. If Dissly can return good as new though, you'll want to sign him up quickly.
32/292. Dan Arnold, Cardinals (67.9) [53]: (AVOID) The projected receiving tight end in Arizona, but do they even utilize the position enough in their spread offense?
33/293. Gerald Everett, Rams (60.1) [27]: (WATCH LIST) Amazing that Higbee is ranked seventh while Everett is all the way down here, based on a few great performances strung together. Going into 2019, these two were looked at as equals in this offense (Everett was probably even ranked higher), and I wouldn't be surprised if things return back to how they were in 2020.
34/294. O.J. Howard, Buccaneers (54.5) [30]: (WATCH LIST) The mighty have certainly fallen in this case. The once tantalizing prospect now finds himself battling for the two-spot with Cameron Brate in the Bucs TE core. The physical specimen is still just 25 however, and the Gronk trade has seemingly motivated him in one of his more impressive camp performances. There's still time for Howard to turn things around, but can he do it with so much competition around him?
HONORABLE MENTIONS (sleepers/watch list/waiver wire)
36/313. C.J. Uzomah, Bengals (68.4) [42]: (WATCH LIST) The new full-time starter in Cincy is always an okay option in free agency (if your starter gets hurt or is on a bye), but is never spectacular. Uzomah is usually good for four or five catches in the flats per game.
37/314. Darren Fells, Texans (65.9) [15]: (SLEEPER) Fells was a steady producer in 2019 (TE15) and a favorite target of Deshaun Watson's, so it's odd that he got zero respect in the ranks this year. He's definitely too touchdown-dependent for me, but I can't complain at 37th.
38/315. Logan Thomas, W.F.T. (56.9) [51]: (WATCH LIST) According to reports, Thomas has basically won the starting duties in Washington. The question is, how much will Dwayne Haskins throw the ball to his tight ends?
39/324. Devin Asiasi, Patriots (51.8) [N/A]: (WAIT&SEE) Either Asiasi or fellow rookie Dalton Keene would have to emerge as the sole starter to make either a fantasy candidate in this sub-par looking Pats offense.
43/328. Vance McDonald, Steelers (47.1) [33]: (INJURY REPLACEMENT) Still a starting caliber tight end, but only if Eric Ebron misses time. McDonald is coming off a down year, but in 2018 he broke out with Big Ben as his QB, Ben is back under center again in 2020.
45/330. Cole Kmet, Bears (38.6) [N/A]: (WATCH LIST) I doubt Kmet will be a factor in 2020, but it never hurts to keep an eye on a talented rookie.
50/335. Jason Witten, Raiders (17.1) [12]: (INJURY REPLACEMENT) This is more of a shout-out than an actual suggestion, but can you believe Witten finished as a TE12 upon his return in 2019? The future Hall of Fame TE will not only compete with Darren Waller in 2020, but the promising Foster Moreau as well (who I did not list here because of his roadblocks).
56/384. Kaden Smith, Giants (29.7) [38]: (INJURY REPLACEMENT/SLEEPER) Engram is an injury waiting to happen, and Smith produced 10-plus points in four out of six games as a starter in his stead (9.78 point average during that span).
58/396. Ryan Griffin, Jets (27) [23]: (INJURY REPLACEMENT) Griffin was awesome in flashes for the Jets in place of Herndon last year, with two 20-point showings. He will be ready to do so again if needed.
67/416. Dalton Keene, Patriots (20.3) [N/A]: (WAIT&SEE) Same note as Devin Asiasi, although Keene may have the advantage due to his counterpart's recent injury.
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