2019: Impact Fantasy Tight Ends... A Dying Breed?
- iAmMizz!
- Jan 2, 2020
- 8 min read
For most of us in 2019, the tight end position was a game of Russian roulette every week. There were only a few to rely on this season as most offenses have continued to move away from the position with spread passing units and shotgun RPO's becoming the new way of the world in the NFL. I'm not ready to give up on the position as a whole though. The Ravens use three tight ends commonly and are currently the #1 seed in the AFC. The 49ers have one of the best in the game at the position, George Kittle, and they're the #1 seed in the NFC. The player who many would call the top TE of the league now that Gronk has retired is Travis Kelce, of the Kansas City Chiefs (#2 in the AFC). Other playoff teams like the Eagles, Saints, and Seahawks value the tight end more than most. The Patriots even seem to miss Gronkowski's presence in their offense, with no viable replacement stepping up. It stands to reason that the position is still important to NFL success, so why is it that there are so few trustworthy fantasy options? Why is it decent tight ends one season are non-existent the next? And most importantly, how can we as fantasy owners figure out a solution to this problem going forward?
Part of the problem this season were lots and lots of TE injuries, with a scarcity of fantasy depth behind starters. When a star like Evan Engram goes down, or even a consistent stalwart like Delanie Walker, the fill-ins may have a decent game here or there, but they generally aren't trustworthy enough to play on a full-time basis (no offense to Kaden and Jonnu Smith, these just happened to be the first players that came to mind... side note, Kaden Smith was actually very impressive in the final weeks of 2019). The bigger problem is the emphasis on tight ends in modern day football. The college system produces less and less all-around rookies (like a Kittle or Gronk who block and catch exceptionally well) for coaches to draft, so aside from the rare Mark Andrews types, you get either receiving tight ends or blocking ones. Noah Fant would be an example of a receiving TE. Most blocking TE's don't make the headlines, especially a rookie blocker. If a player manages to develop in college and make his way to the big leagues as a two-way talent (someone who can remain on the field for both rushing and passing downs -- meaning more opportunities for targets), he then has to find his way on to an offense with a coach and quarterback that utilize the position. I like to think of these as "old school offenses." This type of offense doesn't necessarily have an older coach, although the younger college head coaches like Kliff Kingsbury generally have very little use for TE's, it's more about the style of the playbook. Sean McVay is a new school coach who actually runs more of an old school style, Kyle Shanahan is another. They are both reliant on a run-heavy style that leads to play action passing downfield. The tight end position teams with play action like Arya with the Hound (Game of Thrones reference, google it). We know about Kittle in San Fran, but let's not forget the fantasy relevance of Rams Gerald Everett at the start and Tyler Higbee (five straight 15 points or higher games to end the season) down the stretch. I mentioned draft strategy in my preseason article, "Tight Ends, Draft High or Let it Ride," but a new pre-requisite for this position has to be not only QB style, but coaching strategy. I'll discuss this more throughout as we look back at our sleepers and busts from 2019.
The three obvious STUDS from my Summer preview held up their end of the bargain this season. Travis Kelce ranked first with 201.9 points (not including week 17) in my half PPR league (0.5 pts per catch, 0.1 per yard, 6 per TD, 1 per 2PC, bonus 2 per 200 yd receiving game). Zach Ertz finished third with 170.6, and George Kittle came in fourth with 166.7. The latter two suffered minor injuries throughout, but persevered for solid seasons. If you included week 17, Kittle actually jumped up to #2 overall. The newcomer to the top four was second year breakout Mark Andrews who placed second with 174.7 in a Ravens offense without much influence from WR's.
Here was the rest of our top 15:
5- Darren Waller 162.3 (OAK), 6- Austin Hooper 145.2 (ATL), 7- Jared Cook 134.6 (NO),
8- Hunter Henry 109 (LAC), 9- Tyler Higbee 107.5 (LAR), 10- Dallas Goedert 107.3 (PHI),
11- Jason Witten 103 (DAL), 12- Mike Gesicki 99.1 (MIA), 13- Greg Olsen 95.5 (CAR),
14- Kyle Rudolph 93.2 (MIN), 15- Darren Fells 93.1 (HOU)... HM: Noah Fant (DEN) at 16
As you can see, there is a noticeable drop off after Waller. Only five tight ends surpassed 150 points in my league, and only seven broke 110! That led to many waiver wire pick ups and free agent streamers throughout this year's campaign (unless you drafted high). I predicted this might happen, but it was even worse than I thought in all honesty. The move away from the tight end has been systematic, more than talent-based. No disrespect to someone like Waller or MAN-drews, as he's been called by fans, but talent alone isn't the reason they were so much better than an OJ Howard or Vance McDonald who have had success in the past. The Raiders and Ravens offenses put them at the center of their play-calling. Neither team had tremendous WR's, both utilized run-first play action ball, and the coaches had history of TE use. Jared Cook had a career season under Jon Gruden in Oakland the year before. I know I probably sound like Captain Hindsight here, and I am, but these are all things to think about for drafting TE's in 2020.
Enough strategy, time for some review. I won't go as in depth (player by player) as the QB position, but I will highlight some of our greatest sleepers and busts of 2019...
ELITE SLEEPERS:
1. Mark Andrews- WRONG, I didn't have Andrews as a bust but I wasn't high on him either. At the time I figured he would be splitting snaps with Hurst and Boyle, but the three tight end sets ended all that and Andrews flourished as the top pass catcher of the group.
2. Austin Hooper- WRONG, up until his injury Hooper was actually leading all tight ends in points for most of the season. So long as Matt Ryan is in Atlanta, Hooper should be a decent fantasy option (assuming he stays with the Falcons himself).
3. Darren Waller- RIGHT, listed as a sleeper although I doubted if the Hard Knocks hype was fooling us all again... it actually wasn't this time. Waller was maybe the most consistent tight end this season, or at least top three. That's two straight seasons Gruden's Raiders produced a top fantasy tight end.
OTHER SLEEPERS:
4. The Seahawks TE's- RIGHT, Will Dissly was on my sleeper list and he quickly fulfilled my prediction until an injury sidelined him. Shortly after, Jacob Hollister picked up where he left off, proving Russell Wilson and Seattle utilize the tight end in the passing game.
5. Dallas Goedert- RIGHT, listed in my "sleep-on" section (which was for players that may not be sleepers at the draft, but could turn into sleepers as the season progressed), Goedert proved that he could put up numbers behind Zach Ertz. It definitely helped that all of Philly's WR core got injured.
6. Mike Gesicki- RIGHT, another sleep-on, Gesicki picked it up in the second half once Fitzpatrick was given free reign to run a pass happy offense in Miami.
7. The Rams TE's- WRONG, I didn't like either of them for the draft with all the other options in LA, but it turns out both Everett and Higbee were used. Everett began the year as a solid starter, but after his injury Higbee stole the job and helped win fantasy championships towards the end.
8. Jason Witten- WRONG, the vet wasn't tearing up the stat sheet, but he was crafty in the end zone and got his receptions per game yielding a productive year back.
9. Noah Fant- RIGHT, not a tremendous season but for a rookie he was reliable. Fant's athleticism shows promise for the future. Bills rookie Dawson Knox impressed in a similar sense for Buffalo.
BUSTS:
1. Evan Engram- RIGHT, he did it again folks! We saw flashes at times like every year, but injury and inconsistency brought us yet another disappointing season.
2. Eric Ebron- RIGHT, there was no way Ebron would repeat his year with Andrew Luck, too many things went right for him... but he didn't even come close.
3. OJ Howard- WRONG, I liked Howard as a borderline top tight end, but it's clear to me now that Bruce Arians' coached teams do not care to heavily use their TE's.
4. Vance McDonald- WRONG, with all the weapons leaving Pittsburgh I thought McDonald (a tank) would step up as a big-time sleeper. Maybe things would have been different under a Roethlisberger led offense?
5. TJ Hockenson- WRONG, I thought the first rounder would be a fantasy sleeper right away and after week 1, I was counting the money. It turned out to be a nice match up, and Stafford went back to his wide receivers exclusively after the Cardinals game.
**6. Jared Cook- BOTH, his final numbers were decent but he started the year so poorly and really only got hot after his mid-season injury. Considering I thought he'd be borderline elite, the season was a bit of a fantasy let down in New Orleans.
THE EXTINCT:
These guys weren't just busts, they didn't even show up in 2019.
7. Chris Herndon- WRONG, the Jets second year talent got suspended (which we knew), then wasn't in shape when his suspension ended, then was immediately injured upon his return. In the end he barely played a snap and if you drafted him, you waited a long time for nothing.
8. Delanie Walker- WRONG, he was a bounce back candidate for me but it just never happened. Injuries seem to have caught up to the veteran.
9. David Njoku- RIGHT, still like the player, just didn't think the Browns were an offense that utilized tight ends often. Njoku got hurt pretty quickly (then benched by Freddie Kitchens after his return), but no Cleveland tight end stepped up in his absence either.
10. Trey Burton- RIGHT, what the hell happened to him?
11. Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins- WRONG, Darren Fells took over the job in Houston and didn't look back. Considering he was TD or bust most weeks there wasn't much left for the Jordan's.
12. Tyler Eifert- WRONG, safe to say the Eifert we once knew is gone, even when "healthy."
13. Ben Watson & Pats TE's- WRONG, I know they had their moments, but considering the void left by Gronk in this offense, these tight ends left us wanting.
There were more busts that I didn't even list because of how weak the position was as a whole this season. Tight end was a constant problem for me in 2019 (9-12-1 this Summer/above on sleepers and busts, didn't include players that were a wash). I had Kittle and Cook in one league, but besides that I generally struggled to find points at the position. Playing match ups proved too risky and players like Cook, McDonald, and Hockenson let me down too many times to count. I ended up making trades for Waller and Herndon in two leagues (one trade worked while the other crashed and burned), or getting lucky with guys like Higbee and Ryan Griffin towards the end. It was grind though, and taught me a lesson on how valuable a Kelce or Kittle type really is in the modern day NFL. Prioritizing the tight end may be worth it in 2020...
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