Fantasy Football Preview: Tight Ends... Draft High or Let It Ride
- iAmMizz!
- Aug 29, 2019
- 11 min read
Updated: Dec 14, 2019
Here we are in the wake of Rob Gronkowski. An era might indeed have ended, but strategy for drafting tight ends is still relatively simple. There are no statistics for blocking or influence on the run game, for leadership or intelligence on routes. It's the receiving tight ends that still claim the spotlight. The true measure of the hall-of-famers of the position doesn't quite translate into fantasy numbers. I've had people suggest I do away with the position in my leagues and create a TE/WR flex in its place... but we can't do that! These players are a fabric of the game. Now I understand the position is top heavy, which creates disparity in larger leagues, but as it is with all things fantasy... all that means is you may have to adjust your game plan.
There are two strategies when it comes to tight ends in the modern day NFL. Target a stud who will always show out on game day, or chance the roster spot on a low end sleeper. You can try matchups or week-to-week changes but generally TE's are hard to predict. Certain defenses may be awful at guarding the position, but even in those cases a lousy tight end might be nonexistent in a game, or overshadowed by a backup who gets the one big TE reception. You never know when the touchdowns will come, just like the week-killing goose eggs. It gets murky if you don't draft a player you can rely on long term. Now there are only three guaranteed studs in 2019, maybe four or five depending on who you ask, so if you don't get one does that automatically mean you're in crisis mode?... no, obviously not, but you should be thinking of sleepers if you miss on studs. The TE's I hate to draft are the ones in the middle, the Jordan Reed's and Jimmy Graham's of the NFL. Players that will be in and out of the lineup all year and have an occasional awesome week with about five or six pitiful performances in between. If a tight end can get you 10 points or more every time out, that is a major WIN. That's what you want really. 20 point games are incredible, but they aren't necessary, consistency is.
THE STUDS:
I mentioned this group above and I really see three clear and away kings of this category in 2019, but I will nod to a fourth who could have a monster season.
1. Travis Kelce- with Gronk retired Kelce will be the guaranteed first TE off the board in 2019, well nothing is ever a guarantee, but he's likely to be the guy with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid using him consistently in their explosive offense. Kelce has had injuries, but not many compared to most NFL players. He's a veteran and an athlete, with hands, power, speed, and endurance. 10/10 for the position, but you'll have to spend a high pick to get him (unlike with the deep QB position, I'm okay with spending a high pick on a TE because the position is very shallow).
2. George Kittle- I love Kittle so much this season that I had to control myself by not ranking him #1. He has all the tools to become the next long term great at the position... but I have to pump the breaks because it takes a lot to play at a superstar level year in and year out in this league, and Kelce has proven he can do it. We'll see how Kittle follows up his record-breaking season.
3. Zach Ertz- he was always Carson Wentz' "guy" for targets, so much that Alshon Jeffery complained about the franchise QB and his decision-making. When Wentz got injured each season, Foles stepped in and dialed back on the tight end passes, hurting Ertz' value. Jeffery was Foles' "guy"... good news for Ertz is, Wentz is the QB they kept around. Even with Foles down the stretch, he finished 2nd in TE points behind Kelce last season.
4. THE NOD GOES TO: Jared Cook- he finished 5th in points with Derek Carr as his QB, now he has Brees, someone who notoriously loves his tight ends (remember Jimmy Graham in his hey day or even guys like Ben Watson who had career seasons in NOLA?). If Cook can stay healthy and learn this new offense quickly, signs point to a career season in 2019. Expensive SLEEPER.
Note on the studs: I never like to be the first to draft any position, but in a 12-14 team league I would expect these players to be picked somewhere from the late 2nd round to the early or late 4th... but it always depends on your league and the people in it, once Kelce or the first goes the others will fall like dominoes.
THE DREAMERS (I really like these guys and dream of their potential, but they come with slight risk):
1. OJ Howard- OJ is very talented and has the size to be a dominant force in the league, he just hasn't stayed on the field. If he had a full season he might find himself in that upper echelon of stud tight ends, but until he proves that he can do it I'm not sure if I want to risk a top pick on him.
2. Hunter Henry- another skilled question mark, you know that Rivers loves TE's and will lean on Henry heavily with a pretty weak wide receiver core around him IF he's the Hunter Henry we remember. He recovered fast from a preseason torn acl in 2018 and almost played a role in the playoffs, but it was more a bluff than anything else. How does Henry rebound after a full off-season of recovery?
3. Vance McDonald- I saw McDonald as a sleeper last season and he broke out for decent numbers. With Jesse James, Le'Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown sent packing there are certainly more targets to go around than ever before in the Steelers era under Big Ben.
4. Delanie Walker- you might have forgotten about this name, but he's back for more after missing all of 2018. Walker killed fantasy teams last year with his early ankle bust (pun intended), but don't forget that for most of his career he's been one of the most consistent tight ends in the league. An ankle isn't like a knee injury, you can come back from it.
THE BUSTS (I like to get these out of the way early):
1. Eric Ebron- if you're looking at 2018 and expecting Ebron to repeat, don't, I had this feeling all Summer but now that Andrew Luck is retiring, it's an even more obvious conclusion. He has all the desired traits but has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career, plus Doyle should be healthier and will steal more targets in an already crowded offense. We'll have to wait and see who Jacoby likes passing the ball to.
2. Evan Engram- I'm a New Yorker. I've been hearing the Evan Engram hype for like three or four years now, basically since he got drafted. He has never lived up to it though, not once. Whether it's injuries, or double teams, or inability to play on blocking downs, or drops... he just hasn't gotten it done. For someone you have to draft relatively high, I think you can do better.
3. Greg Olsen- he's been contemplating retirement and a job in the booth for the last two years now. In those seasons he has barely played because of injury and diminished ability. I'm not sure Olsen is 100% all-in mentally or physically anymore, drafting him is a risk.
4. Jordan Reed- perennially on my bust list since 2010 or maybe earlier. This man was once a top talent, but he just can never stay healthy. At this point in his career he's no longer a top talent and he still can't stay healthy. Are you picking up what I'm putting down?
5. Jimmy Graham- I've said it for years now, Aaron Rodgers is not a TE quarterback, meaning he does not use them often in his offense. Graham's career has gone downhill ever since he left New Orleans, but it has hit rock bottom in Green Bay. He may have the occasional TD-fueled performance that attracts managers, but there are more consistent players out there.
6. Kyle Rudolph- don't call me an ageist for these busts, but a lot of these players are over the hill. Tight end is a grueling position that wears down even the toughest of men (i.e. Gronk). Rudolph is another that will be passed up for someone younger soon, the likely candidate is rookie Irv Smith.
7. Jason Witten- you can draft him, but DO NOT draft him high based on name value. Do your homework, there are so many players that have more upside than a "fresh off retirement" Jason Witten. We'll see if this was a smart decision for the future hall-of-famer.
8. Gerald Everett/Tyler Higbee combo- this offense is crowded enough as it is and these two make it worse on themselves by practically splitting time 50/50. Unless one emerges and Goff starts utilizing his tight ends more, I can't see any reason to draft either of them.
THE MIDDLE TIER TE (average... in my intro I said to avoid these guys, don't completely avoid them but also don't waste any high draft picks on them, rookie TE talent is filled with sleepers this season and who aspires to be average anyway?... 5 to 8 fantasy points per game types):
1. David Njoku- I do like Njoku, I don't love his situation. The Browns offense is now one of the more jam-packed units in football, everyone's probably been taking Baker out to dinner this Summer. Njoku is gifted with out-of-this-world athleticism, but he's also been a player with a tendency to drift away into the background in games. I'm not sure what this is due to, but it has produced a wide-range of stats that spans from tremendous to nonexistent on any given Sunday.
2. Austin Hooper- had a breakout season in 2018, and even that was underwhelming. Hooper is a solid TE on a steady offense but his upside is limited past last year's 7.9 PPG.
3. Trey Burton- the definition of average and boring for tight ends last year. Burton came into the '18 drafts as THE momentum sleeper (the more people talked him up, the more others decided he was the guy that would shatter draft expectations). He didn't, but he was serviceable and made it the entire season give or take.
4. Mark Andrews- I'm hearing Andrews sleeper alerts but here's my problem with it... the team has like five or six tight ends every season and most of them get snaps. The note I saw on ESPN fantasy said the rookie only got 35% of the snaps in 2018, but they acted like this was a good thing. His odds for playing time haven't improved. Renowned blocker, Nick Boyle, still tops the run-first depth chart and '18 first rounder Hayden Hurst is now available. Granted, this is the rare team that may call three-TE sets with regularity, but Andrews still needs targets from a QB that barely throws the ball. Love Andrews, but I won't draft him in this situation.
5. Jack Doyle- this one is simple, with Brissett at QB and Ebron vying for snaps, Doyle has a ceiling on his scoring this fantasy season. You could do worse, but you could also do better.
(P.S. most of the middle tier TE's in terms of ranking make up my BUSTS list, who would of thought!)
THE SLEEPERS (part 1, guys you can draft):
1. TJ Hockenson- the steal of the fantasy season for tight ends, and it should be no secret. Drafted #8 overall by the Lions this year, TJ hopes to become the next Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or better. He has the size, strength, athleticism, and skill, he only needs some experience. Ex-Patriot DC turned Detroit HC Matt Patricia surely sees him as a young Gronkowski to build around.
2. Noah Fant- reminds me of a young Evan Engram; prowess as a receiver, sloppy blocker that is often penalized in the process, undersized for the NFL, gifted athlete. Engram has been a let down in fantasy most seasons, but would Fant follow in those footsteps?
3. Chris Herndon- the word was out on Herndon in the second half of 2018, and he probably would have been drafted in the Njoku range of talent (although he may have a higher ceiling in the Jets offense), but then the DUI happened. Now suspended the first four games, Herndon will drop to the bottom of the draft. If you really have no other options, stash him for the suspension and go with a free agent pool sub in the meantime... Herndon could be a breakout once back.
4. Tyler Eifert- you know the deal on Eifert, he's got his own personal timeshare on the PUP list. I wouldn't spend more than a last round pick on him or something close to that, but hey, maybe this is the year he finally plays... what a sleeper that would be if it was... key word IF.
5. Will Dissly- I had him in my mind as irrelevant until Ed Dickson went down and Jacob Hollister struggled with nagging issues as well. Dissly is a massive target and will likely be the main one at TE in Russell Wilson's offense that is starving for playmakers.
6. Darren Waller- this always happens, there's always at least one player that the HARD KNOCKS hype train affects dramatically going into the fantasy football season. The TV show makes them look like diamonds in the rough and then they end up disappointing us big time. I listed him on my sleeper list but to be honest I'm extremely skeptical. Go at your own risk with Waller.
7. Ben Watson/Matt LaCosse- old man Ben is suspended four games, and has already had a few injury concerns in the meantime. LaCosse is more of a blocker than receiving threat. These are the best fantasy options out of the five or six tight ends New England has cycled in and out this off-season. It's a stretch, but Belichick and Brady are always worth betting on.
THE SLEEP-ONS (part 2, guys to watch after the season begins):
1. Dallas Goedert- this dude is a BEAST, but unfortunately he plays behind Ertz on a team with five or six wide receivers and just as many running backs. There aren't enough touches to go around in Philly to warrant a draft pick, but this is a guy I signed for a couple spots starts in 2018. If Ertz goes down SIGN IMMEDIATELY and thank me later.
2. Mike Gesicki- raved about out of college but didn't raise any eyebrows in Miami year one. As I've stated in prior articles, I'm avoiding all Dolphins players like the plague this year, but Gesicki does hold some appeal if he can form a connection with Fitzpatrick or Rosen.
3. Dawson Knox- "practically a wide receiver" at Ole Miss, Knox is the type of rookie that could eventually be worth knowing. Tyler Kroft is the only man standing in his way, and that's not much.
4. Jordan's in Houston- Thomas and Akins. Thomas won the tight end battle last season but not decisively enough for me. Neither of these Texans should be drafted unless one takes the job cleanly and runs with it.
5. Jace Sternberger- the backup to Jimmy Graham in GB, Sternberger had better chemistry with Rodgers last season than the vet. Like most of these players, his value only comes out of injury.
6. Irv Smith- the 2nd rounder seems more like a developmental pick for the Vikings. Unless Rudolph falters and Smith surprises, he only has watch list value.
7. Josh Oliver- the Jaguars 3rd rounder should split time with Swaim and O'Shaughnessy, and hasn't separated himself in preseason. His fantasy status only changes if THAT changes.
8. Ian Thomas- plays behind one of the older/injury prone TE's in the league, but hasn't displayed much fantasy presence himself when he's had the chance.
9. The wily vets: Cameron Brate, CJ Uzomah, Jesse James, Tyler Kroft, Vernon Davis & Charles Clay among others. Time and time again these players have been called on when their starters have gone down with injuries. If the player you draft does fail, or gets hurt, this type of NFL experience might become your weekly bailout. Clay is a tad bit different because he could start in Arizona, but no one is expecting much after a miserable 2018.
In my opinion, the tight end market has two appealing factions. The first faction is the top six or seven off the board, especially the top four. They're desirable, aside from any busts I listed. Then comes the wasteland in the middle. I don't feel many of the tight ends from around eight to twentieth ranked are desirable, aside from a few. That's about 150 picks in draft time where you could be bulking up on other positions. Then comes the next faction, the rookies and sleepers. Don't get caught in the middle on this one, snag a tight end you actually want this weekend, that way it's not a problem for you all season.
Looking for more fantasy knowledge before this weekend, checkout my other three published articles on: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Team Defense/Kickers.
Kommentare