Fantasy Football Preview: Team DEF/ST Sleepers & Busts... +Kickers
- iAmMizz!
- Aug 9, 2019
- 13 min read
Updated: Dec 14, 2019
I know these two positions aren't the most exciting in fantasy football, but you need one of each in the starting lineup every week and being that football generally has a small roster, every starting slot is critical in getting a W (none should ever be wasted). Remember, football seasons are also shorter, so each week is crucial. I'll be focusing on Team Def/ST, I am involved in one player D league but to be honest I never research much on individual defensive players before the draft, I usually just wing it based on last year's stats and a lot of common sense. A brief kicker rank will follow at the bottom. This is part one of another blog series, so stay tuned for a preview of each position leading up to an American holiday in my book, NFL Week 1.
Before I start breaking down anything, I don't want to tout my knowledge but I do feel I should provide a brief resume (otherwise what reason would anyone have to listen to my fantasy advice?). I grew up with two older sports fanatic brothers so I got into fantasy pretty young, probably joined my first league around age 13. Now I'm almost 26, so I have over 10 years experience in football and baseball, with newer experience in hockey and some more random sports like golf or premier league soccer. I don't know basketball, because I'm not a fan of the NBA. Over the course of my fantasy career I've obviously gotten better as I've gained more experience with it (just like anything else). Generally I've learned that you get back what you put in, unless you have some really incredible or terrible luck (which happens in fantasy sometimes). Football is by far my most knowledgeable sport, and the only one I can honestly say my advice can absolutely help win you a championship. I live, eat, breathe this sport. I'm in four football leagues most years, not including draft kings, survival pools, and extra week to week stuff. Two years ago I was a half point away from winning all four of those leagues in one year (and these leagues are no joke in terms of competition either). That was the best fantasy season of my life, no doubt about it, but I'm usually a staple in the playoffs when it comes to football and most times I'm a contender for the crown in every year of every league I'm in (winning many championships over the course of the 12 or so years I've done it). Like I said, even though there is some obvious subtle bragging in what I'm saying, it's not intended to hype up my fantasy ability. At the end of the day, there are much more important things in life than fantasy sports and sports in general, I know that... but if you feel you could use some pointers from someone who's done this successfully for a very long time, this blog series is for you. If you think I'm just cocky and don't know my ass from elbow, that's fair, and this blog series is not for you. Either way I'm giving away my own secrets and draft tactics so maybe you'll read it just to try and crush my chances if you're in a league with me. Whatever reason you may be reading, as always I thank you for the support and hope to help you win a title in 2019... unless I'm facing you of course.
There are different strategies to how people go about drafting Team D. Some wait till the end, knowing that they will likely cut whatever defense they draft anyway, going with a matchup-based strategy week to week. I've seen this work great, and obviously it is very cheap come draft time allowing you to spend higher picks on flex depth... but it also comes with risk, especially in deeper leagues. My league that I created and act as commissioner has 16 teams. It is the deepest fantasy football league I have personally ever seen, although there's probably a 20 team league out there somewhere... I wouldn't mind trying that at some point. Keep in mind there are 32 NFL teams, so a 16 team league automatically uses half the league every week in terms of Team D/ST. If you are relying on the free agency pool and a sleeper matchup each week, chances are you'll have a few weeks where the choices aren't ideal. If your league is a more common 12 teams, this strategy becomes even more viable. Another strategy is the manager who wants the gold standard at every starting position, but has a hard time with bench depth. I never like to be the first person who drafts a position (first guy to draft a QB or star TE, first to take a Defense, or for Christ sake don't be the guy that drafts Justin Tucker in the 6th round!), mainly because no draft is the same and each has its own sort of flow to it. I've never relied on mock drafts for that reason, the people you are drafting with are all living breathing thinking individuals, everyone with their own opinions. Mock drafting with robots that think based on predetermined formulas and coding have almost no relevance once that initial draft horn sounds on your laptop or smartphone. ALL BETS ARE OFF, and it becomes every man or woman for themselves in the beautiful chaos that is draft night. You never know what is going to happen. So back to my original point... it's always hard to judge when a good time is to take the first of a position, because really it depends on the opinions of the other people in your draft. Unless you REALLY REALLY REALLY (yes three really's) want Patrick Mahomes or a specific Defense (probably the Bears D this year), I recommend against being the guy that kicks off the domino chain that is likely to follow the initial position picks. You almost always reach and draft that player too high. The other two strategies are familiar ones in fantasy sports, ride the wave after the initial D/ST is taken and get one you believe to be sturdy and consistent (the conservative fantasy approach)... or do your homework and nab the team you believe to be the sleeper of this year's draft. Remember, the Bears D was not draft high in most leagues last season. Neither was the Jaguars the year before that when they shocked the NFL. One thing about fantasy sports, there is ALWAYS a sleeper, you just gotta find them.
Out of those four strategies above, I usually go with the sleeper attempt in terms of Team D/ST. This spends a mid to lower draft pick, but not as low as the week-to-week matchup manager and not as high as the conservative 2nd tier manager. If you do it correctly, it's the perfect place to be, but sleepers commonly fail. I can't tell you how many fantasy analysts that get paid to do sleeper picks get 75% of them or more wrong every year if you go back and check their statistics. I may get mine wrong this year, who knows. As confident as you can be about sleepers, there is always doubt and the truth is you no one is ever 100% right. You just have to be right more than you're wrong. So without further ado, let's get to this year's teams and how they stack up.
THE UNDRAFTABLES (yes this isn't a real word, no I don't care):
Should not be drafted in any league, no matter how large or small, as the title suggests.
1. Miami Dolphins- probably best to just avoid the Dolphins at all costs this season.
2. Cincinnati Bengals- I've seen them ranked middle of the pack in projected points but I have no clue why. Solid up front but bad everywhere else with an offense that won't do them any favors.
3. Arizona Cardinals- brand new coaching staff plus switching back to 3--4 with a whole bunch of different bodies the past two seasons, oh by the star CB Patrick Peterson is suspended for 6 games.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- early injuries to stars, a new system with good coordinator but too many moving parts, and one of the worst secondaries in the league (lot of work to still be done).
5. Oakland Raiders- actually think some of the veterans brought in will help them stabilize a bit in 2019 after finishing last in 2018, but they are still too big of a risk to draft until the youth develops.
6. NY Giants- big blue had one of the worst defenses last season and I see no reason that will improve dramatically, tons of rookies and 2nd year pros playing key roles could bring upside, or major trouble.
7. Atlanta Falcons- my Falcons fan buddy hypes them every year but they're never any good. Top heavy with zero depth behind Trufant, Jarrett & Jones this D is a disaster waiting to happen.
8. Detroit Lions- borderline, but I see no reason to draft them. Patricia is building his system but aside from a sturdy D-Line and Darius Slay this D has no playmakers, and neither does the ST.
REGRESSING DEFENSES TO AVOID (BUSTS):
I feel these D's are usually rated pretty high, but you should stay away from them in 2019.
1. Chicago Bears- let me explain, they will still be a very good defense this year but the chances of them repeating last season are slim... and drafting them will cost you a hefty pick. Someone will take the Bears, but D's don't usually repeat insane numbers back to back, get value instead.
2. Minnesota Vikings- this D has been going downhill for awhile now and I see it continuing in '19, lost a few vital pieces and the rest of their stars are aging, this is a dominant D no longer.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers- always okay at home, but with the offense taking a step back this D may have more to do this season, they are weaker than they look in many areas.
4. Houston Texans- for the first time in a long time they actually stayed healthy last season. I wouldn't count on two years in a row... plus they lost Mathieu among others in free agency.
5. Seattle Seahawks- I never count out Pete Carroll because he is one of the best defensive minds out there (especially in Seattle), but on paper this is probably the worst D roster he's ever had.
6. Baltimore Ravens- they still have one of the top secondaries in the sport adding Earl Thomas to an already lock down group, but they lose captain Mosley and look weak in the middle. I don't think they will be bad as they round out this list, still draft-worthy just not as high.
GOLD STANDARD (top D/ST... besides the Bears because remember, never be the first):
1. Buffalo Bills- I'd call them a sleeper but I feel like the cat is long out of the bag. The only thing holding them back last year was their offense, which should be better. Don't forget they swiped veteran returner Andre Roberts from the Jets who is one of the best ST performers in the game.
2. LA Rams- the Rams aren't a good NFL defense, they're a good fantasy defense, there's a difference. They go all out for turnovers/TD's and could get you a negative here or there but could also win weeks. They usually end up scoring one of the highest point totals every season.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars- *sleeper*... call me crazy but just two years ago they were the Chicago Bears. The main reason they had a down '18 was a pitiful offense that left they out to dry every game. If Foles can keep the offense moving, look for a resurgence in Sacksonville.
4. New England Patriots- the 'do your job' system is always a safe pick, Brady and Belichick control game tempo and sometimes that is more important to defensive success than star talent.
STURDY 2ND TIER OPTIONS (for the conservative approach, these teams should serve):
1. New Orleans Saints- similar to the Pats but less trustworthy. Brees and Sean Payton have become a run first offense that grind out games, this competent D usually doesn't have to do much.
2. Tennessee Titans- my main sleeper along with the Bears & Chargers last year, this defense is well-built inside and out. They also have a decent return game.
3. LA Chargers- another breakout team in '18, the Chargers D has probably gotten better and should be angry after the Pats embarrassed them in the playoffs... injury woes are the only concern.
4. Indianapolis Colts- the Colts D came out of nowhere last year and didn't add too much so part of me thinks they could be in store for a reality check, or their youth can develop further, going to bet on option two because their offense should put them in good spots throughout.
5. Denver Broncos- the Broncos offensive unit really scares me with field position, but this has always been a forceful D, at home they are almost a guaranteed lock for positive points.
6. Kansas City Chiefs- a Rams style D that gives up tons of points, yet makes big plays and have potential to score high TD numbers on both turnovers and returns (7th ranked in fantasy last year). Switch to 4-3 adds pressure but moves for Frank Clark and Mathieu should help the transition.
7. Washington Redskins- I know what your thinking, boring, you're right. Fact of the matter is, this was one of the most consistent D's in football last year and could be again, unless the O flounders.
SLEEPERS (HIGHER COST-LESS RISK):
1. Keep in mind my main two sleepers are the Bills and Jaguars, but I consider them GOLD^.
2. Philadelphia Eagles- they had a disappointing fantasy campaign after their super bowl win, but with Cox leading one of the best D-lines out there, and now Zach Brown captaining the linebacker unit as a major GET, Philly could easily return to glory but may still be high on some radars.
3. Cleveland Browns- the Brownies are all the rage going into 2019 but most talk about Baker, OBJ, Hunt, Chubb & Landry. That offense will definitely help the D stay off the field, but don't sleep on a unit that brings in vets Olivier Vernon, Shelton Richardson & Morgan Burnett to join explosive 2nd year talents Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward among others.
SLEEPERS (LOWER COST-HIGH RISK... for the bold):
1. Dallas Cowboys- at times Dallas looked like the best NFL defense in the league last year, but other times they were a fantasy no-show. Deep/young crews at linebacker and corner should make this a safe sleeper, while edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence comes of the edge and drops the hammer.
2. NY Jets- I am a Jets fan so beware of my bias haha. I also see Quinnen Williams as a defensive rookie of the year favorite adding a bull rush that will open up other avenues for Jets pass rushers. The secondary is a concern but safety Jamal Adams and DC Greg Williams will have this team AMPED on game day. CJ Mosley adds experience too, low pick high reward.
3. San Francisco 49'ers- this is the possibly the biggest risk out there on my draft board. Ranked 2nd to worst in 2018, this D is loaded with potential but also reliant on many injury prone players. If Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Deforest Buckner, Kwon Alexander, Jason Verrett & Richard Sherman stay on the field, watch out, these boys will turn some heads.
4. Green Bay Packers- one of the youngest defensive cores in the game with three starting corners drafted in the last two seasons along with Rashan Gary on the line as a rook. They also spent big in free agency with Za'Darius & Preston Smith, as well as Adrian Amos. I feel Green Bay still may be one year away for fantasy purposes, but definitely a cheap option to keep your eye on.
5. Carolina Panthers- the final NFL team is Carolina, who surprised everyone by switching schemes under a long term coaching staff. If players can swiftly adjust to new roles, this unit has the veteran prowess to be very consistent in 2019... may not rack up huge fantasy points though.
Well, that was fun... kickers will be much faster and less precise/in depth. I'll be honest, my strategy on kickers usually has very little to do with the players themselves. Sure there are the Justin Tucker's of the world or my personal favorite Greg Zuerlein who could kick the ball to Mars, but you don't need to target the best at this position, you really just need to target the best situation. You want a team with a decent offense, but not teams that scores TD's every drive. There's no exact science to predicting this (kickers fluctuate like relievers in baseball... did you have Ka'imi Fairbairn as the top fantasy kicker last year going into 2018? How bout Aldrick Rosas and Jason Myers who finished 5 & 6?), and of course you shouldn't pick a horrible player just because he's on the right team, but trust your gut and if anything don't spend a really high draft pick on a guy unless you really feel they are a LOCK for 10+ points per week. I never draft kickers high, but if I did, the only ones I would consider this season are Zuerlein, Lutz, and Butker (all three are top talents on top offensive units)... no Tucker you might ask? No, because generally he gets taken first every year insanely high, it's always a reach, and if anything the Ravens got worse.
I won't do kicker busts or tiers, but I will list a few guys I think could have solid seasons (aside from the gold standard above)... some may be obvious, some may be considered sleepers:
1. Mike Badgley (Chargers)- young but was accurate and clutch in the playoffs last year, plus the Chargers put up points, but don't necessarily score a TD every drive.
2. Robbie Gould (49'ers)- his career statistics probably make him one of the top kickers all-time, but his team isn't exciting most years. The Niners are finally poised to be just that.
3. Matt Prater (Lions)- big leg, but his accuracy is always up and down. I feel the Lions will be a surprise breakout offense in the NFL this season, which would help Prater.
4. Giorgio Tavecchio (Falcons)- big shoes to fill taking over for long-time Atlanta kicker Matt Bryant, but the Falcons are constant point scorers and a money location for Tavecchio.
5. Aldrick Rosas (Giants)- the most likely of the three surprises last year (Fairbairn & Myers being the others) to perform again in my opinion. Giants have a field goal threat offense (like warning track power in baseball) and Rosas is still a young talent with a jacked leg.
6. Brett Maher (Cowboys)- now that he proved he's not a bust, I feel the Cowboys have an ideal offense for kickers... good but not spectacular.
7. Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots)- he seems to get worse and worse every year but he's still on the Pats, he'll get points if he avoids negatives. Usually drafted too high based on name recognition.
8. Adam Vinatieri (Colts)- old faithful, he's only on this list because he plays for the Colts and kicks in a dome half the time. Age has to be a risk factor though. 9. Josh Lambo (Jaguars)- if the Jags rebound like I've been saying all off-season, Lambo should be in for a bounce back too, he is a fine kicker statistically.
10. Austin Seibert (Browns)- rookies have killed me in the past (looking at you Dan Carlson), but he's on the right type of team where he could have a successful year if he doesn't choke.
PS... before I sign off for the day, three rules of thumb I have learned with kickers. One, if you draft the kicker for the Minnesota Vikings, you are asking for trouble, they're seemingly cursed and I learned that first-hand last season not once but twice. Apparently this is a thing for Vikes fans (may even throw the Bears in the mix here). Two, avoid the kickers who play in horrible weather places like Seattle, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, Denver, and Buffalo (it's not a guarantee they'll suck but you're really pushing your luck in these spots). Three, if a guy has the yips (meaning they have been shanking kicks the past two weeks and have zero confidence) release them immediately and avoid them like the plague thereafter.
That's all for me this time, more fantasy draft tips and previews to come... stay tuned.
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