Fantasy Football Preview: Quarterbacks... Finding the Next Mahomes
- iAmMizz!
- Aug 20, 2019
- 11 min read
Updated: Dec 14, 2019
I believe in a simple strategy when it comes to drafting quarterbacks, do not waste a high pick on them. Yes, that includes Patrick Mahomes who will go WAY too high in most drafts this season. Remember when Cam Newton had his MVP season (similar to Mahomes last year)? Do some homework and check on his stats the following season when he became a top fantasy pick. In fact, the common argument used by those who share my opinion is that Daunte Culpepper was the last QB to repeat back to back #1 ranks in fantasy ('03-'04). That's just over 15 years ago! Trust me, I've learned this from first-hand failures and intelligent opponents as well over the course of my long fantasy career (and if you're wondering who I am and why you should consider listening to me on this topic it's all included in my first fantasy preview article which focuses on D/ST and Kickers).
The main reason behind this mindset is that the position is extremely deep, meaning you can draft a guy in round 10 or 11 (sometimes lower) that consistently scores as much as the guy taken in round 5 (Aaron Rodgers type) if you know what you're doing. It just takes some research which I swear by, not necessarily quarterback research though, situational research (offensive line, weapons, coaching staff, injury risk, etc). In the year Matt Ryan won MVP he had an incredible offensive line and O-Coordinator, same with Carson Wentz before his first injury... Brady, Brees, and Big Ben always do. Not convinced? Andrew Luck was a top fantasy player last year and his offensive line was one of the best in the NFL.
Similarly, I was high on Jared Goff in 2017 and '18 when he was a middle to low draft pick for quarterbacks... before McVay took over the Rams I thought Goff was the biggest bust since Ryan Leaf circa 1998. So what changed my mind? Why was I Goff's number one fan boy all of a sudden? It's pretty obvious where I'm going with this, but it was his offensive unit that changed my mind when they transformed the O-Line into one of the best in football overnight with additions like Andrew Whitworth and an emergence like Rodger Saffold... yet it felt like no one noticed because everywhere I looked Goff was still ranked incredibly low. McVay also changed the whole playbook AND added a receiver core made up of Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods not to mention the young QB had Todd Gurley moving the ball for him. Goff had the dream set up, and he ended up having a very solid couple fantasy seasons after initially looking like a bust out of the draft. You have to notice these dream/miserable situations as much as you look at the QB himself if you want to stay ahead of the curve in your fantasy league. Having said all that, I WOULD NOT draft Jared Goff this year. He lost half his O-Line in free agency and has a brand new Center. He might still do okay with all his weapons, but being that he is a pocket passer the line changes worry me. He'll also be ranked higher now due to his recent success. Goff is no longer your sleeper, but don't worry, I'll tell you who is.
Before we get to QB sleepers and busts, I averaged out O-Line rankings from three separate sites I consider to be reputable; Pro Football Focus, Fantasy Pros, and Huddle. Here's what I got for 2019 projections:
1 Indianapolis Colts (3.33)_____2 Dallas Cowboys (4.33)_______3 Pittsburgh Steelers (4.33)
4 New England Pats (4.33)____5 New Orleans Saints (4.67)____6 Philadelphia Eagles (5.33)
7 Chicago Bears (6.67)_______8 Green Bay Packers (7.67)_____9 Carolina Panthers (9.33)
10 Baltimore Ravens (11.0)____11 Los Angeles Rams (11.0)_____12 Denver Broncos (12.0)
13 Atlanta Falcons (13.0)______14 Tennessee Titans (14.33)_____15 San Francisco 49ers (15.0)
16 KC Chiefs (17.67)_________17 Detroit Lions (18.0)__________18 New York Giants (18.0)
19 Jacksonville Jaguars (19.3)__20 Los Angeles Chargers (20.0)__21Washington Redskins (20.3)
22 Cleveland Brown (21.0)____23 Seattle Seahawks (21.0)______24 Buffalo Bills (22.33)
25 Minnesota Vikings (23.0)____26 Oakland Raiders (24.67)_____27 Cincinnati Bengal (27.0)
28 New York Jets (28.0)______29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28.67)__30 Arizona Cardinals (29.0)
31 Houston Texans (29.33)_____32 Miami Dolphins (31.0)
Sorry for the clutter, but they are ranked left to right from 1-32 based on their average rank which is in the parenthesis next to the team name. All three of these sites take into account last season's player performance, but more so the season to come based on transactions, draft picks, and even injuries although recent injuries will not be included in the above list.
Once last thing before people say, "well Mahomes didn't have a top O-Line, or Deshaun Watson." Mobile quarterbacks can always overcome the odds (Russell Wilson generally has a poor line too but he's a Houdini in the pocket), they also come with extreme risk of injury in most cases. My strategy is based on finding a sleeper value QB while calculating the least possible risk, and although mobility doesn't hurt to have, I will not overdraft on a running quarterback.
AVOID ENTIRELY:
Lightning round but these guys are obvious players you shouldn't draft.
1. Andy Dalton- possibly the worst O-Line/O-unit in the NFL after many preseason injuries.
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen- whoever starts, you don't want em.
3. Eli Manning & Joe Flacco- best days are behind both of them with young talents knocking.
4. Case Keenum- if he starts over Haskins it probably won't last too long in Washington.
5. Marcus Mariota- I'm still not convinced he'll beat out Tannehill, either way this offense is a snooze-fest which is bad for business in fantasy sports.
6. Philip Rivers- the O-Line is aging and so is he, Gordon's absence won't help.
7. Jameis Winston- I've been going back and forth on Winston because his rank is so low and he has talent plus Arians should make him better, but the O-Line is just SO awful and he isn't the best at dealing with pressure or duress... can't do it.
THE BUSTS:
1. Patrick Mahomes- I actually do believe he could repeat because he is wildly talented, but all signs point to avoiding Mahomes in year 3. He will get drafted HIGH. He lost his Center Mitch Morse among others on the offensive line. He has less weapons than last season. The way he plays comes with major injury risk... and he might get the Madden Curse if you believe in that.
2. Deshaun Watson- you could have seen this coming but I've never been a fan of Deshaun and it has nothing to do with him as a player. I'm actually a big fan of him from a personal sense, but you cannot play fantasy sports with your heart otherwise you are flushing money and pride down the toilet. He has had a lot of injuries throughout his career already, none of which were minor, and he plays behind the projected 31st line in football which never seems to improve year to year. When play opens up for Watson, he is dynamic no doubt about it, but the risk is too great at #2 ranked for QB's on most sites.
3. Matt Ryan- not much mobility and his O-Line just lost some key pieces (I thought their average rank of 13th ranked was generous because one site kept them way near the top). Rumor is they may start both rookie OL first rounders, neither of which seemed pro-ready on draft night. If Ryan sees heavy pressure his MVP type numbers will plummet. #3 or 4 rank is too high for me.
4. Baker Mayfield- I signed Baker last year and he helped me down the stretch in multiple leagues, I wanted the Jets to draft him in real life, I'm one of his biggest fans not from Cleveland, people even say I look like Baker... but I can't believe how high he's being ranked at #5-7 range. The Browns line lost Kevin Zeitler and has two sub-par to poor Tackles. Baker does well on the run, but he may have to all season to stay out of trouble. Hard PASS at this high value.
5. Ben Roethlisberger- lower rank at #9-12 range but with the continuous loss of weapons in recent years, stock on Big Ben should dip. He also is notoriously bad away from Heinz Field, making him too inconsistent for me (still has a top offensive line though, which goes against my usual train of thought).
6. Jared Goff- from sleeper to bust in back to back seasons, but that's what success will do to you. I explained it all above but the Rams OL may have taken more hits than any other this off-season.
7. Lamar Jackson- gimmick QB's don't last in the modern NFL. Defensive coordinators will start to game-plan for him now, and I don't think his arm or lack of help on offense can overcome that.
8. Kirk Cousins- I pegged Captain Kirk for a big-time bust last year and most managers were cutting him by mid-season. I don't expect things to change as this O-Line hasn't improved at all for a fumble-happy QB who has zero pocket presence. He is ranked a lot lower now.
SAFETY PICKS:
1. Tom Brady- unless you find yourself in a league with a bunch of Boston homers like I do (I've seen him get taken as the first QB many times), Brady has decent value this year. He's not the best in fantasy, but he's consistent and if you get him low he won't disappoint most weeks.
2. Aaron Rodgers- you would have to draft him a little too high for my liking, but A-God is still one of the most talented the game has ever seen and his line is still top ten.
3. Andrew Luck- you'll have to monitor this one, because Luck has been dealing with nagging injuries all preseason. A player like him has a history with these sorts of things, he's been anything but lucky throughout his career. IF he's healthy, Luck has all the tools around him to be studly in 2019.
4. Drew Brees- fitting the common vibe of this category, this veteran QB almost never gets touched by pass rushers and will put up casual numbers. They run the ball more now, but for safety Brees is the classic no brainer.
5. Dak Prescott- yes, this pick is as boring as it sounds, but with Travis Frederick, Tyrone Smith, and Zach Martin all relatively healthy for once this O-Line could propel Dak to his rookie numbers.
6. Russell Wilson- it's kind of sad that such a great talent to watch is usually wasted in fantasy, but it's true. Seattle plays a run-first grind of a game every week and with a weaker O-Line and lack of wide receivers on top of that, it never seems like Russ can take the next step in fantasy.
HIGH RISK HIGH REWARD (sleepers that will cost a lot, but could pay off huge):
1. Carson Wentz- I've been hearing "Carson is a sleeper this year" and "Wentz for MVP" all off-season, and I agree that it could happen, but do you really want to risk it is the question. He has now had injuries in two straight seasons and has yet to help any fantasy managers in the playoffs.
2. Cam Newton- the guy I actually like for bounce-back MVP type year is Superman Cam. Supposedly, this is the healthiest he's been since his Superbowl run, and the line plus McCaffrey should help extend both plays and drives. You just never know what you're going to get with Newton, and that can be worrisome in fantasy.
3. Kyler Murray- I'll tell everyone right now that I won't be drafting Kyler Murray. Arizona has one of the worst offensive units in the league top to bottom. Having said that, he could have a Mahomes type influence, who knows... and if that happens you look like a genius.
4. Mitch Trubisky- the other MVP sleeper I've been hearing about all off-season. I do not think Trubisky will even sniff MVP this season, nor do I think the Bears will repeat by winning the North, but that doesn't mean he won't have surprisingly high fantasy numbers. Trubisky runs better than he throws and tends to rack of big points on big plays, but has less injury history and much better blockers than most other rushing QB's with the Bears at 7th on my average O-Line list. He's ranked around 18th for QB's on ESPN right now... if you can get him that low, don't even think about it, draft the third year pro immediately.
LOW RISK SLEEPERS (finally, the big-time draft winners):
1. Josh Allen- the Bills spent the whole off-season improving their O-Line and WR weapons for Allen, who has the athleticism of a Wentz or Trubisky type and an all-around game that is developing beautifully in preseason. I LOVE Allen as a very low sleeper this season.
2. Sam Darnold- this one is tricky, because I know first hand that the Jets O-Line is terrible, but Darnold has looked sensational in preseason and the former top draft pick has shown growing poise, pocket presence, and vision at every stage in development. I'm not saying draft Darnold or any of these low risk sleepers as your lone starter (unless you're in a 16 team or higher league), but he's a great guy to take a chance on if you're unsure about your 1st QB drafted.
3. Matthew Stafford- I actually believe this is the deepest offense Stafford has ever had at his disposal. Golladay has the size and talent to develop into the next Megatron in Detroit, Marvin Jones gets to deep balls with the best of them, Amendola is a veteran of the slot, Kerryon Johnson is the first decent RB this team has had in over a decade, and the O-Line is middle of the pack but definitely not bottom of the league. Don't make me look stupid Matt, this is your time.
4. Jimmy Garoppolo- going into the Summertime my big Jared Goff type sleeper was Jimmy G. Sure he's coming back from a horrid injury both mentally and physically, but I thought it might help lower his stock. I looked at Garoppolo's team and saw a tremendously smart offensive coaching staff (like McVay), an improved O-Line now at 15th ranked with great anchors at left and right tackle (like the Rams), and a large group of weapons including one of the most athletic and toughest challenges to cover at tight end in George Kittle. After one preseason game and a downright atrocious camp though, I'm not sure if I should keep faith. Jimmy G is not NFL-ready mentally right now, and that is more concerning than anything physical. Still, he's worth a shot as a bench player/comeback type after the early weeks, but not a draft day starter just yet.
5. Derek Carr- not so much a sleeper, but a value backup, Carr has better weapons with AB, Tyrell Williams, and JJ Nelson. He could be a really solid matchup QB, but the O-Line is still scary.
6. Nick Foles- similar to Carr, if you plan on drafting a QB real low and maybe even having two value guys rather than one risky top talent, Foles could be a player to look at as your backup. The Jags line if healthy will be much improved from last season and Foles is a steady QB who is known for his lack of mistakes. At the very least he should stay healthy and produce few negatives.
THE LONGSHOTS (guys to keep on your watch list mid-season, not to draft):
1. Daniel Jones- Eli's heir has looked like he deserved his high draft selection in camp so far.
2. Ryan Tannehill- Mariota's days are numbered as a starter. When healthy, Tannehill used to put up decent numbers with Miami.
3. Dwayne Haskins- rough start in preseason but still a rookie talent to watch.
4. Nick Mullens- San Fran elected to keep Mullens rather than trade him at his best value and with the way Garoppolo has looked so far this may end up being a smart move.
5. Drew Lock- his preseason injury will prevent him from starting in Denver, but not from taking over for Flacco mid-season.
I breakdown in categories because not everyone may have the same strategy as me. If you like the controlled pick in the middle rounds, the safety group should be perfect for you... if you prefer the big risks but want the next MVP, a Wentz Cam or Trubisky type is calling your name... if you want to just spend a high draft pick and feel good about it I don't necessarily recommend it but certain players are ranked high for a reason (Mahomes, Mayfield, etc)... and if you crave the real sleepers, the guys that get selected and kill it while others in your league are wasting a pick on a Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton, you know what list is for you.
Remember, drafting quarterbacks is about staying ahead of the curve and never behind it... more to come with all three flex positions still remaining on this blog series of theNightCap.
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