Fantasy Football Preview: Running Backs... Draft Depth & Own the Waiver Wire
- iAmMizz!
- Aug 26, 2019
- 16 min read
Updated: Dec 14, 2019
Running backs are arguably the most important position in fantasy football, in part because they get injured so often, but also because there's a lot less depth here than wide receiver or quarterback. Sure you can grab the backup of a star and sometimes it works out tremendously for you (perfect example is James Conner last season), but more often than not if your top one or two running backs go down you're in for an uphill battle. Running backs are also big time point contributors... they run, they catch, they score touchdowns and the right ones get GUARANTEED touches on the ball, they do it all. So drafting the correct running backs, and stocking up with some RB depth is one of my points of emphasis every year... and it should be one of yours too.
"How do you know who's the right running back to draft? It seems like a complete shot in the dark with injuries and touches some seasons."
True, you can never control whether or not your team stays healthy, that's up to the Fantasy Gods. You can prepare for it however, and you can ensure that injuries don't end your season. You just have to do your research, know your players, and follow a sound strategy. Mine comes down to a six-point system. Number One; always know your running backs would-be replacements (I try to know the 3rd stringers and 4th stringers too but that's for real intense fantasy managers). Chances are at least one of your RB's will get hurt this season. If you have Saquon Barkley, Mark Ingram, and Kerryon Johnson... first off, nice team... but you should know the names of Wayne Gallman/Rod Smith, Gus Edwards/Justice Hill, and CJ Anderson/Zach Zenner. If you don't know these guys, I bet you someone else in your fantasy league does and they'll be the guy with the smirk on their face who grabs them off waivers or free agency when Saquon goes down with a _____ (don't want to jinx a player by uttering an injury aloud). So again, KNOW YOUR BACK UP RB's. Recently, if I have the roster/bench space (so depending on the league set-up), I sometimes spend a low draft pick on a hail mary type back-up RB, especially if it's the 2nd stringer for my first round draft pick. So if you draft Christian McCaffrey 1st overall, even though he isn't very good do yourself a favor and draft Cameron Artis-Payne with your final pick. Most likely he'll be there, and you would probably waste that pick on someone you'll eventually cut anyway. Again, if you have very few bench spots don't waste one on an Artis-Payne safety net, but if you have some room to spare I highly recommend the safeguard.
Number Two; avoid DANGEROUS RED FLAGS. If a guy is holding out, don't draft them. It is a new era, Le'Veon Bell has proven that a holdout can last an entire NFL season. Now that it has happened, I would avoid any holdouts that last past week 4 of preseason (which is when I always draft). SIDE NOTE... if you're drafting anytime other than the seven days leading up to week 1 opening night, you're doing it all wrong. Have fun with Andrew Luck and Lamar Miller this season. Anyway, back to point two... don't risk a hold out and also beware of lengthy injury history. Running back is a position that takes on mileage, like a car. Rushers rarely (probably never if we're being real) get better with age, especially the guys with recent torn acl's and constant quad/hamstring pulls (looking at you Leonard Fournette). That's like buying a car after reading a Carfax report riddled with repairs and accidents. If you get someone at a premium and are eyeing a bounce back year, sure it can work, I'm not saying avoid any player who's ever been hurt. Just be aware of the players that are constantly hurt, and don't be shocked when they go down again in 2019... P.S. this goes for every football player because of the nature of the sport, but it goes double for running backs.
Number Three; OFFENSIVE LINE OFFENSIVE LINE OFFENSIVE LINE. I stressed this in my fantasy quarterbacks article (which you should check out if you haven't already), you didn't think I would stress it twice as much for RB's? The guys that the O-Linemen physically open holes for? If you read my other article, you know the deal, but below is a ranking of NFL O-Lines based on an average system using three trusted ranking sites from before preseason week 1 (Pro Football Focus, Fantasy Pros, and Huddle). Any injuries to OL since the start of preseason are not taken into account:
1 Indianapolis Colts (3.33)_____2 Dallas Cowboys (4.33)_______3 Pittsburgh Steelers (4.33)
4 New England Pats (4.33)____5 New Orleans Saints (4.67)____6 Philadelphia Eagles (5.33)
7 Chicago Bears (6.67)_______8 Green Bay Packers (7.67)_____9 Carolina Panthers (9.33)
10 Baltimore Ravens (11.0)____11 Los Angeles Rams (11.0)_____12 Denver Broncos (12.0)
13 Atlanta Falcons (13.0)______14 Tennessee Titans (14.33)_____15 San Francisco 49ers (15.0)
16 KC Chiefs (17.67)_________17 Detroit Lions (18.0)__________18 New York Giants (18.0)
19 Jacksonville Jaguars (19.3)__20 Los Angeles Chargers (20.0)__21Washington Redskins (20.3)
22 Cleveland Brown (21.0)____23 Seattle Seahawks (21.0)______24 Buffalo Bills (22.33)
25 Minnesota Vikings (23.0)____26 Oakland Raiders (24.67)_____27 Cincinnati Bengal (27.0)
28 New York Jets (28.0)______29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28.67)__30 Arizona Cardinals (29.0)
31 Houston Texans (29.33)_____32 Miami Dolphins (31.0)
Follow this list for success with running backs. If choosing between two similarly skilled backs, choose the player with the better O-Line. A great example would be Nick Chubb (Browns) versus Marlon Mack (Colts), not taking into account the Kareem Hunt factor. These guys are similar rushers/age/ability. They can each catch some passes and make some plays. Most rankings would tell you that Chubb will be the higher draft pick, but I'm not sure I agree he'll end up having a better season. Mack has the far superior line, even with a lesser quarterback now. This shouldn't be the sole determining factor in your decision-making as to RB's, but it should factor in (remember when David Johnson was a #1 pick? It was the last time the Cardinals had decent blockers), and too commonly people forget all about offensive line when drafting their tailback.
Number Four; PPR or No? If you are in a PPR league (points per reception for the newbies out there), recognize that certain halfbacks catch WAY more passes than others. This is where the O-Line factor in point three gets a little pullback from me. If you're drafting a run-first back, like a Adrian Peterson or a Chris Carson, FOLLOW POINT THREE. If they are a catch-first back, or a player that does both really well like a Joe Mixon or Le'Veon Bell, you have some other things to consider. One would be, how good is the team's offense? If the QB generally throws downfield and never dumps the ball into the flats, this factor becomes less important. If the QB is Eli Manning and looks like a deer in headlines week to week, the running back could get a million cheap catches in a season (Saquon in 2018). I think Le'Veon could be a 2019 candidate for a ton of catches under Gase's system in New York with younger QB Sam Darnold. Darnold can throw downfield, but Bell should be a large part of the passing attack either way. The Jets also have a poor O-Line... see how these two points don't always match up? Needless to say, if you are in a non-PPR league, players like James White lose a ton of value and shouldn't be drafted as high.
Number Five; backfield competition. Is your running back one of five solid backs on the team or the lone wolf? There's more than one reason McCaffrey, Elliott, and Barkley are so valuable... they pretty much stand alone in their backfields. The Eagles on the other hand love to use seven running backs per year, for no specific reason besides Coach Doug Pederson's personal preference. Maybe he likes to keep his guys fresh, makes sense, but it's bad for fantasy.
Number Six; offensive efficiency (team/unit). In terms of every position, it's always better to have a player on a productive team that moves the ball up and down the field. You're more likely to get a touchdown if you're near the end zone, duh. Even more duh, more plays equals more RB touches.
Let's get to the players. For RB's and WR's there's just too many to give a scouting report/prediction for each player on all 32 teams (like I did with QB's and Team Defense), but I will breakdown most of the starters and give my thoughts on sleepers and busts as always.
THE BIG FOUR (if I have the first pick, what do I do?):
To me, as well as many analysts and fantasy managers, the consensus first four picks of most drafts will be these four RB's: Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Ezekiel Elliott (who's holdout should end this week according to recent reports). The first question I hope to answer is the order you pick these four backs. For the purpose of this article I will rank under a HALF PPR format (compromise for PPR and non-PPR users), but I will say that in a non-PPR format Zeke deserves a strong look at #1. Either he or Kamara has the best O-Line out of the group, but Zeke and Barkley lead RB's in total touches last season. The Cowboys have an efficient offensive unit that will give the ball to Zeke around the goal line, while Kamara could lose goal line touches to Latavius Murray. All around, if Zeke's hold out ends, his situation makes him a really strong candidate for the top slot, but even more so in a non-PPR because of how much Saquon and McCaffrey catch passes. If we're talking PPR in any sense (half point or full), I personally believe you have to go Barkley at one. I feel like McCaffrey has grown as the trendy #1 pick this Summer, but Barkley gets the ball more than any other flex player in the league, plus he's a powerhouse physically and elusive like a pesky mosquito. The Giants offensive line wasn't great last season, and managers have concerns about the unit's production under Eli, but with Kevin Zeitler coming in from Cleveland (one of the top graded run-blocking guards in the NFL), Will Hernandez blossoming, and veteran Mike Remmers attempting to stabilize the RT position, this line looks much improved. Eli is another question, but rest assured Saquon will get the ball A LOT, and he'll score TD's, plus I'm not convinced Carolina's offense is much better. Assuming the hold out is over, at two I would go Elliott. My main reasoning is he is a proven back who handles a monster workload with a tremendous O-Line which gets Travis Frederick and Tyrone Smith back. Elliott may not catch the ball as much as the other three, but he gets his receptions too and ran for the highest yards per game in 2018 (95.67). I will finally go McCaffrey at three. I know he gained weight and looks swole, I know he catches the ball like a wide receiver and runs precise routes, I know he gets touches on an offense starved for talent (although Coach Rene Rivera did say he wants Caf's touches to go down from last season), but still I just can't see myself drafting McCaffrey over Saquon or Zeke. They're just better players all around, and if everything is equal (which it pretty much is when you break it down), call it a gut thing if you want but I feel he is the third best fantasy RB. That leaves Kamara at four. Kamara has a force of an O-Line and he is an incredible burst rusher that finds gaps and creates big problems for defenses, but New Orleans seems dead set on limiting his carries. After Ingram left I thought maybe this would put Kamara on the level of the others, but then the Saints and Sean Payton go out of their way to continuously stock the backfield this off-season with depth and spell-backs for Kamara. The main one to worry about is Murray, who can be a TD vulture in the red zone. The other three have virtually no competition behind them.
For what it's worth I posted a poll on Twitter which had 120 hits asking which of these four should be taken at #1 overall, results were: Barkley- 46%, McCaffrey- 30%, Kamara- 13%, Elliott- 10%.
STARTING RB's THAT I LOVE:
1. James Conner- the Steelers line is still a dominant group, and with weapons leaving the Steel City left and right, Conner is now the straw that stirs the drink in Pittsburgh.
2. Le'Veon Bell- I don't love the O-Line situation, but Gase has made it clear Bell will be a massive part of this offense. As long as his body doesn't seize up with rust, Bell should be back to his high-scoring fantasy ways... plus he promised his franchise owners a renaissance.
3. Devonta Freeman- Here's my first semi-risk, Freeman is returning from a injury ruined season but assuming he stays on the field he is due for a major bounce back. Atlanta is the dream situation for running backs and now Tevin Coleman is gone, he is in for the lion's share of touches in 2019.
4. Aaron Jones- the Pack are 8th on O-Line rank and Jones is far and away the top talent on the roster. He'll play a role in the passing attack too, and we all know Rodgers can move the football.
5. Marlon Mack- Andrew Luck or no, Mack has the best O-Line in football blocking for him and Coach Frank Reich will rely on the run game now more than ever. Time to eat Marlon.
6. Mark Ingram- the former Saint is a hard strong runner in a run-first offense. While the Ravens do have alternates in Edwards, rookie Hill, and Dixon, it's still an upgrade on when he split time with Kamara. This is Ingram's chance to break out in his own right.
7. David Montgomery- the rookie out of Iowa State was a bell cow in college, and Coach Nagy has raved all off-season that he wants Montgomery to do the same in Chicago. For everyone who thought Cohen would be a RB1 this season, sorry, Nagy said 'not so fast.' Cohen is a possible bust that I will not mention below.
8. Phillip Lindsay- surprised he's being ranked in the 60's overall on ESPN after his rookie season, but I guess it's because people worry what new coach Vic Fangio may do with his RB's. Royce Freeman and Theo Riddick don't scare me though, Lindsay loves the Colorado air and is a bargain at his current draft stock.
BACKS I LIKE, BUT HAVE CONCERNS WITH:
1. Todd Gurley- the clear #1 pick last year has a gimpy knee now. It dropped him in the draft order and no one is sure how fresh Gurley is in 2019 because McVay is sitting all starters in preseason. I'm not a huge risk taker in fantasy, especially in the 1st round, but if Gurley overcomes this knee, he could be the type of wager that helps win championships.
2. Kerryon Johnson- I really like this player, but this team seems cursed at times, especially at RB in the wake of Barry Sanders' presence. Kerryon will look to play a full season in Detroit.
3. Damien Williams- Williams was a slam dunk up until he missed time this preseason. Now Coach Andy Reid has made it seem like the starting spot is up for grabs. Assuming he takes it back from Carlos Hyde and rookie Darwin Thompson, you WANT the KC running back.
4. Chris Carson- I'm a big fan, and Pete Carroll seems to be too as Carson has outpaced 1st round pick Rashaad Penny at every turn. Still, the Hawks line could be better suited for a team that loves to run the ball, and I like Carson more as an RB2 than your lead horse.
5. Derrick Henry- this one is the opposite of the others, I'm a fan of Henry's situation, not him as a player. The Titans have a solid line and will look to run a ton behind this slow-moving tank.
6. Leonard Fournette- at this point Fournette reminds me of that favorite truck that you keep patching up and hoping it will eventually drive like new... problem is, I'm not willing to bet it ever will.
BUSTS & BACKS I DON'T LIKE THIS SEASON:
1. Joe Mixon- it's a real shame Mixon is wasting the prime years of his career in Cincy, behind a miserable O-Line. His fantasy value this year is solely as a PPR back for me after all the injuries to the Bengals line this preseason. In an updated rank, they would easily be #31 or 32 with Miami.
2. David Johnson- DJ could improve with an offensive minded coach and Kyler Murray, he could even return to his former top three prestige. The only way I draft him is if he drops to the late first or early second round though, his current rank is too damn high!
3. Dalvin Cook- nothing personal but because of his team's lack of emphasis on improving the O-Line, Cousins lackluster play, and injury woes in his young career... I'll probably never draft Dalvin Cook in the 1st round again, even the 2nd round is a stretch.
4. Nick Chubb- with Kareem Hunt overshadowing Chubb's value in the back end of the season and a worsened line overshadowing his overall appeal, I think there are better options lower in the draft. By the way: OBJ, Landry, Njoku, and more take targets from Chubb.
5. Kenyan Drake/Kalen Ballage- this offensive line is one of the worst on paper that I've ever seen in my lifetime. I'm avoiding all things Miami this fantasy year.
6. Peyton Barber/Ronald Jones- not only are these two proving to lack in talent, their team lacks in blocking talent too with a league rank around 29. Barber started all 2018 and put up a measly 140 points, Jones hardly touched the field.
7. Jerick McKinnon- I just feel coming back from the acl with dynamic competition in Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida will be too much to overcome. McKinnon won't see enough action to garner a draft pick after missing most of camp.
8. Josh Jacobs- it's a dumb reason, I'll admit, but it worries me that Hard Knocks hasn't mentioned the Alabama star once so far. A rookie RB that is likely to start should gain more attention, but Jacobs is a ghost, and the Raiders O-Line is unimpressive. This isn't the youngster I'll be taking a chance on... Alabama RB's also have a history of being average in the NFL.
CLASS OF THEIR OWN:
The Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriot backfields- these two teams are harder to judge in fantasy than any other when it comes to running backs. Two of the best offensive lines in the NFL make you lick your lips, but the coaching style makes you groan. Both not only carry an excess of RB's on their roster, they use ALL of them... sometimes irrationally. The Eagles currently have EIGHT RB's... EIGHT!!!! And for the most part they aren't no names. Surely some of these players will get cut before week 1, but the backfield is currently (Jordan Howard, rookie Miles Sanders, Darren Sproles, Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood, Josh Adams, Boston Scott, and Donnel Pumphrey in that order on their depth chart). If I was confident he would get consistent touches, I would love Howard or even give the rookie a chance, but in this situation it's hard to draft any of these players high. The Pats are similar, they also have eight backs on the roster not counting James Develin, so really nine. The main difference is that the Pats have less viable options than Philly. Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead, and rookie Damien Harris are the only four worth focusing on as of now. Belichick is frustrating for fantasy owners because Michel will have a great drive, then not play a snap the next time Brady has the ball. Definitely draft-worthy, just be prepared for some aggravating moments. With LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, rookie Devin Singletary, and TJ Yeldon, the Buffalo Bills make a poor man's version of this set up, I'd avoid Buffalo backs.
SLEEPERS:
1. Derrius Guice- I liked Guice as a sleeper out of college before his injury sidelined his rookie season. The Redskins line is middle of the pack, maybe worse without Trent Williams, but Guice is still a gamble I feel is worth taking. Having said that, stay away from AP. Chris Thompson has PPR value, as always (James White type of player).
2. Austin Ekeler- I haven't mentioned Melvin Gordon yet but DO NOT DRAFT HIM. The Chargers are cheap and this hold out seems likely to last all season, the two sides have made almost no attempts to reconcile. That makes Justin Jackson and Ekeler gain value, out of the two I prefer Ekeler because of his style of play. He can catch like a wideout and he's nifty between the blocks.
3. Duke Johnson- this is obvious... a player who was irrelevant two weeks ago on a team he demanded a trade from, now finds himself in the perfect situation to shine. To Lamar Miller, godspeed, an acl/mcl tear to any RB can be deadly, but I actually feel Duke Johnson might fit the Texans better than Lamar. He is slightly better as a receiver and the Texans line stinks, if I were them I would run a shotgun/option type formation most downs. PPR sleeper only.
4. Latavius Murray- he has always been a solid back-up RB, and the Saints O-Line should help bump his yards per carry. If Murray can play the Ingram role all season, this man could be a big time draft sleeper with his ability on the goal line.
5. Tevin Coleman/Matt Breida- I feel the Niners will run the ball early and often this season, especially if Garoppolo struggles to get going. An improving 15th ranked OL should get these two churning and there's no reason both can't prosper from the rotation.
6. Dion Lewis- his first year in Tennessee was a bust, it's either time to double down at a much lower draft value, or give up on the former Patriot.
7. Jaylen Samuels- I haven't heard much about Samuels this off-season, but he looked great spelling Conner in Pittsburgh last season. He could be a sleeper in PPR formats as a very low pick that gets some burn on third downs.
8. Tony Pollard/Alfred Morris- if Zeke signs, these two become irrelevant. If not, Dallas is a run first team and there will be plenty of carries to go around.
PLAYERS TO STASH (due to possible injuries to their starters):
1. CJ Anderson- Kerryon Johnson has had injury problems before, and Anderson has proven he can get the job done as a starter (last year with the Rams, but also prior to that with Denver).
2. Carlos Hyde/Darwin Thompson- I touched on this earlier but the KC starting running back is one you want to have. If Damien Williams isn't the guy, once of these two will be.
3. Ty Montgomery/Bilal Powell- mostly Ty as a PPR sleeper type. If Le'Veon's body falters after a year on the shelf, Montgomery is the perfect player to take his place in the Jets offense.
4. Jamaal Williams- not a huge fan, but there isn't much else behind Aaron Jones on the Packers RB depth chart, and this is a good offense for backs.
5. Alex Mattison- a rookie in Minnesota who has outplayed Ameer Abdullah so far to be the #2. Cook has had a bunch of injuries during his short time in the league.
6. Alfred Blue/Ryquell Armstead- the two main backups in Jacksonville behind oft-out Leonard Fournette. The problem here is I would always rather take the chance on a rookie than someone I know to be unexplosive, but Blue is ahead of Armstead on the depth chart.
7. Jalen Richard- a decent PPR option behind the rookie Josh Jacobs in Oakland.
8. Gus Edwards/Justice Hill- Mark Ingram is relatively sturdy as far as halfbacks go, so that makes me wary of their value, but this Ravens offense will run more than any we've seen in a long time.
9. Malcolm Brown/John Kelly- with Gurley as a huge question mark all off-season, many have wondered who might step up if he went down. The original sleeper candidate was rookie Darrell Henderson, but he has faltered all preseason. Most likely, it would be a committee if Gurley missed time, which takes away from any fantasy value.
10. The backups of the best in the business. I mentioned them earlier, but Wayne Gallman (NYG) and Cameron Artis-Payne (CAR) are the likeliest candidates to replace Saquon and McCaffrey.
At the end of the day, running back is a position that requires study and persistence. You will face some sort of adversity this season, BE READY, use this list and keep tabs on depth chart battles as they play themselves out. I'm a true believer that fantasy seasons can be won and lost on the waiver wire after injuries occur. WIN YOUR WAIVER WIRE IN 2019.
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