Fantasy Football PREP: Wide Receiver, Top50
- iAmMizz!
- Aug 26, 2020
- 13 min read
This year I'll be splitting up wide receiver into two articles, the WR Top50 (which as you would expect will breakdown the top 50 ranked wide outs according to ESPN Fantasy pre-draft) and a team-by-team analysis of possible WR Sleepers beyond the top 50.
This article will focus on the former, and when discussing wide receivers it's very important to first consider the PPR rules of the league you are drafting in. For any rookies out there, PPR stands for points per reception, and a full point PPR league can make the top receivers in the game into fantasy studs. I usually prefer a half PPR rule book, which awards +0.5 per catch. Old school leagues are generally non-PPR, which can obviously hurt the value of a WR.
If you read my 2019 Wide Receiver Draft Guide, you'd know that I would rather wait on the wide receiver position than both running back and tight end (especially in a half or non-PPR). RB is generally the first position that is wiped out across the board, and although you can sometimes luck out with a week two waiver wire pick up, there is a lot more wiggle room at WR either lower in the draft or in free agency. The TE position is just inherently shallow, but we'll get to that later.
My six WR metrics:
Pre-Draft Rank (always)
Quarterback (the man throwing the ball is just as important as the man catching it, maybe more... this includes the production of the offensive unit as a whole -- OL+coaching too)
Targets Per Game (how crowded is the WR room? over-saturation can be bad)
Receptions Per Game (is your WR reliant on the big play, or a volume WR? volume guys can be very valuable in PPR leagues)
Red Zone Threat (added potential if your WR is a red zone favorite)
Injury/Covid Risk (you always want to keep an eye on injury-prone players, but this season you need to keep an eye on irresponsible players as well. Players that break protocol could kill your fantasy season, so you might want to avoid character risks this season)
**ESPN's projected ranks will correspond to a 16-team draft and the score settings below:
ALL TD's: +6, Per Rush/Receiving Yard: +0.1, PPR: +0.5
Bonus: 200+rushing/receiving: +2, ALL 2PC's: +1
Previous 2020 Fantasy Football Previews: Quarterbacks
2020 Wide Receiver Top 50
PLATINUM Draft Status (Proj. Round 1-1.5)
Key: Position Rank/Total Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points) [2019 position rank]
1/6. Michael Thomas, Saints (244.3) [1]: (TARGET) It's debatable on whether or not Michael Thomas is the best WR in the NFL, but he's without a doubt the top WR in fantasy right now. The skill level plus the amount of targets per game (11.6 in 2019) is difficult to beat. Only Davante Adams is comparable in my opinion, but he's had more issues staying healthy, Thomas has also been consistent in that regard (rarely missing a snap).
2/16. Davante Adams, Packers (204.4) [24]: (TARGET) I still love Davante despite his injury issues last season. He's the only wide receiver of note on Green Bay, and he's ridiculously good with an abnormally high volume of touches per game. Remember, Adams was the #1 receiver in 2018.
3/17. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (212) [29]: (AVOID/BUST) Hill already has a lingering hamstring injury in camp, which is nothing new for the Chiefs #1 wide out with the track star speed. He's more known for his monster weeks, but I'll take consistency any day, as it factors into more matchups.
4/18. DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals (208.7) [5]: (UNSURE) It all depends how often D-Hop gets the ball in Arizona's spread system. With Houston he was a constant contributor and a favorite of Deshaun Watson, but will he be the same thing for Kyler Murray in year one of their partnership?
5/19. Julio Jones, Falcons (208.8) [3]: (TARGET) This is low for Julio Jones, who still garnered third most receiver points in 2019. With Hooper off the Falcons, Jones could get the ball even more, and don't discount his long-tenured relationship with Matt Ryan.
6/21. Chris Godwin, Buccaneers (207.7) [2]: (TARGET) Love Godwin even more in 2020 than last year, except he's no longer a sleeper now. Brady's short yardage style could be perfect for the more dynamic possession threat of the Bucs' main options. If he could become the new Edelman, rewind the clocks and enjoy the show for Tom and company.
7/22. Mike Evans, Buccaneers (210.2) [12]: (AVOID) Normally I'm a huge fan of Mike Evans. He might be my favorite WR in all of football. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Evans play style fits Tom Brady at age 43 as well as it does Godwin or some of Brady's other targets. Winston was the perfect air it out QB for Evans and he still finished at WR12, a seventh projection might be a bit high.
8/24. Kenny Golladay, Lions (191.3) [6]: (TARGET) I have to bring this up... last year I told a guy on Twitter asking for trade advice to accept a trade where he gave up OBJ for Golladay, Josh Allen and a 3rd player who I now forget. My argument was that Golladay will finish the season better than OBJ so the rest is just gravy (also lauded Josh Allen as a sleeper QB). The guy actually laughed at my Golladay>OBJ comment after asking for advice, but Kenny G then finished sixth overall in points (far better than Odell). I see the blossoming Detroit wide out as a young Megatron (Calvin Johnson) for the Lions. With 11,190 yards and 11 TD's in 2019 after only a half season from Stafford, no one's laughing at you (or me) now Golladay!
GOLD Draft Status (Proj. Rounds 1.5-3)
9/25. DJ Moore, Panthers (185.3) [18]: (AVOID) In a PPR league I might make this pick. I could see Teddy Bridgewater hitting Moore on a lot of short yardage type passes, but in a non-PPR I would avoid him this high in the draft. This team just doesn't throw downfield enough.
10/26. Allen Robinson II, Bears (182.4) [11]: (UNSURE) A-Rob finally stayed healthy last season and the results were tremendous, but with the Chi-Town offense in a state of confusion and flux, I would prefer to ignore all fantasy parties involved in 2020. I will point out however that Robinson was tied for fourth in targets per game last season.
11/27. Adam Thielen, Vikings (191.3) [62]: (TARGET) Following the worst season of his career, Thielen is ripe for a huge fantasy comeback. Stefon Diggs is gone and so long as Thielen is healthy (which he had trouble with in 2019), only rookie Justin Jefferson is really competing with him for Cousins' attention. Heavy targets, heavy receptions and yardage. If Thielen burnt you last year like he did to me, I say DOUBLE DOWN.
12/28. Amari Cooper, Cowboys (184.7) [9]: (AVOID) Coming off a contract season where Dak and Amari both went off for Dallas, odds point to regression in 2020. I say that twice as much for Cooper, being that rookie CeeDee Lamb and the ever-developing Michael Gallup should steal a lot of his possible points.
13/29. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers (183.6) [66]: (UNSURE) JuJu's 2019 was marred by poor quarterback play and injury, so he might be due for a big bounce-back if Roethlisberger stays healthy. That's kind of a big IF though, isn't it? Also fair to mention that this is a crucial contract year for Smith-Schuster, who will probably test the free agency market in 2021.
14/30. Courtland Sutton, Broncos (183.4) [20]: (TARGET) Sutton has more competition for targets in 2020 with Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler on the roster, but that also means he's less likely to get double-teamed like he did last year with nobody around him. Lock and Sutton seem to have a connection, and I expect this wide out to build on last year's sleeper campaign.
15/31. Odell Beckham Jr., Browns (180.4) [26]: (UNSURE) I'm usually anti-OBJ because his draft status is generally in the top 10. This seems like a much more upside spot to draft the prolific (but at times mind-numbing) star. I do have two major concerns; the plethora of weapons around him that could either help or hurt him in fantasy, and his lack of responsibility. I could see Beckham breaking protocol and testing positive, he's proven that he is a lousy teammate in the past and he's already asked for trades out of Cleveland in the present. Always a risk if you draft him.
16/32. A.J. Brown, Titans (182.7) [15]: (UNSURE) Brown was a big play monster as a rookie with breakout speed and exciting playmaking ability, two things that don't often involve the Tennessee offense. It's hard to say if he'll repeat those numbers, fall short in year two, or explode on past them... but if you want consistency rather than week-to-week fluctuation, A.J. Brown might not be your guy just yet. At least until we confirm that Tannehill's return is not a flash in the pan.
17/33. Calvin Ridley, Falcons (181) [25]: (TARGET) I liked Ridley heading in 2019 and he didn't quite live up to my expectations. Still, there is not much on this offense besides Julio and Calvin now that Sanu and Hooper are gone. Calling that Ridley breaks 1,000 yards in 2020.
18/36. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks (186) [13]: (TARGET) A low rank following a surprisingly good season. Watching Lockett last year I realized that he may have some of the best hands in the entire league. Russ and him have a strong connection too, and the Seahawks number one seems to have a nose for the end zone more often than not.
19/37. Robert Woods, Rams (180.7) [17]: (AVOID) I like Woods as a player, but this Rams broken down offensive line (and Goff behind it) both scare the Hell out of me. The only player I would draft in this offense in probably Kupp or a TE.
20/38. Cooper Kupp, Rams (175.1) [4]: (TARGET) Speaking of Kupp, here he is just one spot under his counterpart. Always seems to be a slight injury risk, but if you can stomach that, Cooper will rack up receptions and yardage after the catch with some insane open-field agility and route running. A favorite target of Goff, Kupp ranked fourth for all wide receivers in 2019 and is a steal this low in the order.
SILVER Draft Status (Proj. Rounds 4-5)
21/50. T.Y. Hilton, Colts (175.4) [57]: (UNSURE) Coming after an injury-riddled down season, T.Y. Hilton sums up the Colts offense under Jacoby Brissett. If you trust veteran Philip Rivers, Hilton's value here could be at a premium, I'm just not sure I trust Phil.
22/51. Terry McLaurin, W.F.T. (173.4) [27]: (TARGET) Classic case of a star talent on a horrible team. One silver lining is that Haskins and McLaurin have a connection from college. I think Terry is a high ceiling PPR pick in 2020, and possibly even a breakout no matter the settings.
23/52. Keenan Allen, Chargers (170.1) [8]: (TARGET/SLEEPER) Keenan Allen ranked this low?? I get that the QB situation is concerning and Allen has had injury issues in the past but sheesh. This is a top 10 WR talent without a doubt, some could even argue top five, and there aren't many other places for Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert to throw the football.
24/53. DK Metcalf, Seahawks (168.5) [33]: (TARGET) A strong physical wide receiver entering year two of his career, Metcalf has a ton of red zone prowess. I won't go as far to say I love him in this draft, but this seems like a fair spot to take him and he has solid potential.
25/54. Jarvis Landry, Browns (172) [14]: (TARGET-PPR) Landry is always a player that you want more in PPR leagues than non-PPR. He's a flex or a borderline starter without the point per reception, especially on a crowded Browns offense, but with the catch bonus I have no problem with anyone selecting Juice... he did have some injury concerns to monitor in camp.
26/55. DJ Chark Jr., Jaguars (168.9) [16]: (TARGET) Unfortunately, Chark's strengths don't really match Minshew's, as the tall deep ball threat might perform better paired with a QB who has a stronger arm. Even so, there is plus potential for the Jags number one at this status, he did break 1,000 yards with 8 TD's in 2019.
27/61. DeVante Parker, Dolphins (169.6) [7]: (UNSURE) Parker was a late season draft kings and fantasy legend for me in 2019. I was fortunate enough to sign him in two shallower leagues before he got hot. DeVante was always a player with massive potential, but we finally saw that come to fruition with gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick as his quarterback. Parker is worth a flier at this value, but I would be careful not to reach on him.
28/62. Stefon Diggs, Bills (156.3) [21]: (TARGET) The cannon of Josh Allen paired with the outside speed of Stefon Diggs and John Brown will give opposing defensive coordinators fits to deal with. Allen said he wants to run less in 2020, and the Diggs acquisition may have granted that wish.
29/63. A.J. Green, Bengals (158.2) [DNP]: (AVOID) A.J. Green is ALWAYS injured. I say it every year and it happens every year, why keep drafting him hoping for some sort of renaissance?
30/64. Michael Gallup, Cowboys (166.6) [22]: (AVOID) This is a crowded offense now and while I like Gallup as a player, I think I would rather draft CeeDee Lamb.
31/65. Tyler Boyd, Bengals (156.1) [23]: (TARGET) Don't draft Green, draft Boyd. He averaged 9.3 targets per game in 2019 and he stays on the field. 90 receptions a season ago.
32/66. Will Fuller V, Texans (136) [54]: (AVOID) Similar to A.J. Green, Will Fuller is almost a guarantee to pull a hammy or quad at some point in the season. Is he spectacular in small bursts? Yes, but are those small bursts worth weeks and weeks on your IR when you may need those spots for positive Covid tests? Unlikely.
33/67. Marquise Brown, Ravens (157.3) [45]: (AVOID) Not a huge fan of Marquise Brown or this passing unit. He kind of has the feel of a one-trick pony who will catch defenses sleeping and have his breakout weeks off fly routes, but also put up duds. 45th in 2019 says it all.
34/68. Deebo Samuel, 49ers (140.9) [30]: (UNSURE) Huge fan of Deebo Samuel, who acts as a sort of switch army knife of touches for the 49ers. Unfortunately, the unique talent fractured his foot during the offseason and may not be ready for week one. Taking on an injured player in the draft is always a risky, but this year those IR spots will be especially valuable. It kills me to say it, but I probably pass on Deebo in 2020, unless he really drops.
35/77. Marvin Jones Jr., Lions (163.9) [27]: (UNSURE) Another injury-prone guy who is playing on a contract year. When on the field, Jones is a fantastic red zone receiver and he usually flies under the radar in fantasy. This one comes with risk, but it may end up being worth it.
36/78. Diontae Johnson, Steelers (148) [40]: (AVOID) Currently struggling with a mysterious injury in camp, Johnson has been held out of multiple practices. Originally had him pegged as a possible sleeper, but this lingering issue (possible sports hernia) is enough to scare me off.
37/79. Brandin Cooks, Texans (149.5) [63]: (AVOID) Who knows, the change of scenery may really help Cooks. To me however, he's a player with a serious history of concussions who now finds himself on a less creative offense.
38/80. Jamison Crowder, Jets (151.9) [31]: (TARGET-PPR) Like Landry, you gotta love Crowder in PPR leagues or even half-PPR leagues. There were times where Darnold force-fed him the ball last season, and now the Jets may have even less options at wide receiver.
39/81. Julian Edelman, Patriots (151.7) [10]: (TARGET) Wow, this just goes to show the influence of Tom Brady. From a WR10 finish in 2019 to a WR39 rank in 2020. I still take a chance on Jules this low, he's a near flawless route runner in the short passing game and I doubt Cam or Stidham are throwing the ball too far downfield.
BRONZE Draft Status (for top50) (Proj. Rounds 6-7)
40/84. Christian Kirk, Cardinals (147.4) [41]: (AVOID) This offense kind of scares me heading into fantasy drafts because there are legitimately like 10-11 receivers on this roster right now. Kirk is either the second or third one, depending on where Larry Fitzgerald fits in, but either way I'd rather someone with a clear path to targets.
41/94. Sterling Shepard, Giants (153.7) [51]: (AVOID) It's becoming a common theme at this stage of the ranks, but injuries injuries injuries. In a normal season I'm okay taking a risk on one of these players, but Shepard is another WR with concussion issues. Not this year.
42/95. Golden Tate, Giants (143.1) [43]: (TARGET) I would much rather Tate over Shepard if they end up being neck and neck in the draft order. The veteran used to be a PPR king, but he's still a serviceable fantasy threat at this point in his career.
43/96. Preston Williams, Dolphins (144.2) [76]: (TARGET) Word is Preston Williams looks awesome in camp, coming off an ACL injury. I just got off talking about injuries, and this one is certainly a risk, but I have more faith in the year-two player than a veteran with a long list of bumps and bruises. When on the field, the former undrafted free agent was dominant during his rookie campaign for the Phins.
44/97. Robby Anderson, Panthers (139.9) [39]: (AVOID) I was surprised by this signing, I don't think Robby Anderson fits with Bridgewater at all. If his sole purpose on Carolina is to stretch the field, that's bad news for the perennial deep ball threat's fantasy numbers.
45/98. Darius Slayton, Giants (135.9) [35]: (TARGET) Slayton had the best chemistry with rookie Daniel Jones, yet he currently sits at the lowest rank in the draft of the Giants top three receivers. In 14 games played as a rookie, Slayton had 740 yards and 8 TD's off 48 catches.
46/99. John Brown, Bills (136.1) [19]: (TARGET) John Brown was a pleasant surprise last year finishing in the top 20 for WR's. His draft status has dropped with Diggs now on the roster, but is it possible the addition of Diggs could help Brown face weaker coverage?
47/100. Henry Ruggs III, Raiders (127.9) [N/A]: (UNSURE) A true burner in college, but is Derek Carr the right quarterback to unleash Henry Ruggs true potential?
48/101. Emmanuel Sanders, Saints (138.9) [32]: (TARGET) Now on New Orleans, Sanders will go from a run-first offense to a pass-first one. One of the savvy vets of the league, Emmanuel is always a good bet for consistency in a possession role.
49/102. Curtis Samuel, Panthers (134.6) [36]: (TARGET-PPR) I like the slot receiver's chances for heavy touches in this new Teddy B offense. I expect the Panthers to get the ball out fast on mostly short yardage routes this season.
50/106. Mecole Hardman, Chiefs (140) [50]: (AVOID) I targeted Hardman last year, but week-to-week became a complete guessing game with this big play threat. At times he was non-existent in this explosive KC offense, other times he made headlines.
Honorable Mentions (Proj. Round 7 but not in top50)
51/107. Mike Williams, Chargers (132.4) [38]: (AVOID) I'm starting to think Mike Williams is just average at best. He has also been dealing with injuries in camp, and with this QB situation looking very uncertain, it feels like we'll see a run-dominant offense for LAC.
52/108. Jerry Jeudy, Broncos (124.7) [N/A]: (TARGET/SLEEPER) The college phenom was ranked as a top route runner as a prospect. I'm sure he will be someone many managers reach for on draft night, so if you want Jeudy, be prepared to pay more than a seventh rounder.
53/109. Breshad Perriman, Jets (133.4) [48]: (UNSURE) A former bust of a top prospect, Perriman finally broke out on Tampa Bay last year, making some ridiculous catches on a few Jameis Winston heave-ho's. He was awarded with a contract from the Jets and a number one receiver role. It's very likely Perriman disappoints in N.Y., but if you believe in Sam Darnold, this large physical talent should get a ton of looks in this barren offensive unit.
Coming soon is my WR Deep Dive, with sleepers from every team, don't miss it!
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