Fantasy Football PREP: Quarterbacks, Keeping Ahead of the Curve
- iAmMizz!
- Aug 24, 2020
- 13 min read
If you've read my fantasy football previews in the past, you'd know that I live by very strict rules at the quarterback position. First, it's important to mention that the leagues I participate in generally have 14-16 teams, therefore my fantasy strategies are meant for deeper leagues.
In these leagues, I never draft the QB position in the first five rounds (sometimes I don't even draft one in the first eight). This strategy has worked flawlessly and failed horribly in different seasons (admittedly, depending on which sleeper QB I've gone with), but rarely do I see a team that drafted a signal-caller in rounds 1-3 win a championship. In fact, those managers generally don't even make the playoffs in deeper formats. This is because it's much easier to find reliable QB talent late than it is RB, WR or TE (similar to my SP strategy in fantasy baseball).
Having said all that, I use six key metrics to determine draft-worthy quarterbacks:
Pre-Draft Rank (of course)
Offensive Line Projected Rank (too often is OL overlooked when drafting QB's)
Offensive Weapons at their Disposal (roster knowledge needed)
Coaching Staff (see Baker Mayfield compared to Lamar Jackson in 2019, strong trust or partnership between offensive coordinator and QB is not only necessary, it's paramount)
Injury Risk (some things are unpredictable, but other players have red flags in their history)
Early Season Schedule (I learned this the hard way last season in one league with Trubisky, you want your QB to get off to a fast start, it's not make-or-break, but when deciding between two quarterbacks you might want to check the schedule first)
**The 7th metric for all positions this season will be how responsible each player is. Any player that's breaking rules going out who eventually tests positive for Covid is not only a detriment to their team, but a detriment to your fantasy roster. There is a learning curve with this element that we are now experiencing in fantasy baseball, but football is a whole nother animal as a non-bubble contact sport, tread lightly...
Here's how the QB position shook out last season, including which players I was right and wrong about. This year I will follow ESPN Fantasy's projected ranks (highlighting sleepers and busts), using the point system from my 16-team league (listed below).
ALL TD's: +6, 10 Pass Yards: +0.4, INT: -3, Sack: -0.5, ALL 2PC's: +1, 400+passing: +2
Per Rush/Receiving Yard: +0.1, PPR: +0.5, 200+rushing/receiving: +2
So half-PPR in which all TD's count the same, with a minor penalty per sack (pocket awareness).
One final reference before we get started, our 2020 offensive line rankings averaging late-August preseason projections from three experts (Sporting News, Establish the Run, and Huddle):
1. Saints (2.00 average)
2. Colts & Cowboys (2.67)
4. Ravens (5.00)
5. Raiders (6.00)
6. Steelers (6.33)
7. 49ers (7.00)
8. Packers (7.33)
9. Eagles (8.33)
10. Browns (11.00)
11. Patriots (11.67)
12. Chiefs (13.33)
13. Bucs & Bills (16.00)
15. Chargers (16.33)
16. Titans (17.00)
17. Vikings (17.33)
18. Texans (18.00)
19. Cardinals (19.33)
20. Lions & Falcons (20.67)
22. Giants & Bears (22.00)
24. Panthers/Jags/Rams(22.33)
27. Broncos (23.33)
28. Jets (28.00)
29. Seahawks & W.F.T. (29.67)
31. Bengals (30.33)
32. Dolphins (31.33)
2020 Quarterback Ranks
Platinum Draft Status (Proj. Rounds 1-3)
Key: Position Rank/Total Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points) [2019 position rank]
1/34. Lamar Jackson, Ravens (358.3) [1]: (AVOID) Anytime a quarterback is coming off an MVP season, I 100% will not be drafting that player the following season. King Lamar (as I deemed him) averaged a staggering 30.9 PPG in 2019, which outpaced the nearest QB competitor (Drew Brees) by 6.7 PPG. I'm aware that he could easily do so again. The problem with drafting a QB this high after and MVP season is that they HAVE to do this again. Any Jackson injury, positive covid test, or regression can completely derail your season because now you'll have to hit on all the WR's and RB's you take with no room for error. I won't call him a bust, but the savvy fantasy managers don't need Lamar Jackson to win a title. 2/35. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (375.5) [5]: (AVOID) For a lot of the same reasons as Jackson, I'll be avoiding Mahomes in 2020 (who I still believe will be the first QB drafted in most leagues despite this ESPN rank). If I ever was going to take a quarterback high, I would take Mahomes over Lamar, but I'd rather pass on both and figure out my flex positions first. It is fair to note that the former Chiefs MVP is coming off a down fantasy season by his standards, but he should still go first or second round in most leagues despite that.
Gold Draft Status (Proj. Rounds 4-6)
3/73. Deshaun Watson, Texans (330.3) [4]: (POSSIBLE BUST) Watson is an interesting player. He is a phenomenal gamer and winner on the football field, but statistically his play has not always matched his fantasy prestige. From 2018 to '19, his pass and rush YPG both went down, and his interception and fumble numbers actually increased slightly. He never has a great offensive line, and now Deshaun is without DeAndre Hopkins (although Houston did add Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb). I have no doubt Watson could finish a top five QB, but top three? Including his injury history and reckless style of play, there are too many risks to ever justify this draft status.
4/74. Kyler Murray, Cardinals (316) [11]: (TARGET) The Kyler Murray hype has been building towards a Baker Mayfield level (last year), which kind of makes me nervous. At the same time, people see him as a possible Mahomes/Jackson type Sophomore breakout, and I can't necessarily argue against that. The Cardinals offensive line isn't great, but they do have one of the most impressive wide receiver rooms in the NFL. HC Kliff Kingsbury loves to have his QB's sling the football around too, making this a dynamic partnership that you want to be a part of.
5/75. Dak Prescott, Cowboys (326.3) [2]: (TARGET) Dak was the second biggest QB sleeper in 2019 behind Lamar, throwing for a career-high 4,902 yards and 30 TD's. It was a contract season for Prescott, so I do worry that he'll be less motivated after getting paid. Even so, I gotta admit that I love Dak's situation; top O-Line, top WR core with CeeDee Lamb addition, great early season schedule, not injury-prone, hungry to prove he is a playoff contender.
6/76. Russell Wilson, Seahawks (321.3) [3]: (SAFE BET) Wilson generally isn't a top three fantasy QB like he was last season, but if you want a model of consistency that is also an Ironman of health, Big Russ is your guy. He'll never disappoint, and when he has to he'll astound with his natural ability as one of the top signal-callers in the game right now.
Silver Draft Status (Proj. Rounds 7-10)
7/116. Matt Ryan, Falcons (301.4) [12]: (BUST) I listed Matt Ryan as a bust last year because he was ranked third for all QB's. He finished twelfth, proving that assertion correct. Ryan is one of the few true pocket passers left in the league, which has become a slight handicap in fantasy. Although his offensive line should be better if healthy in 2020 (crucial for his style of play), the blocking talent is still a step down from his MVP campaign. He also lost one of his favorite targets in Austin Hooper, and will have to develop chemistry with Falcons new RB Todd Gurley.
8/117. Tom Brady, Buccaneers (326.6) [10]: (TARGET) If you know me, you know I'm not a fan of Tom Brady, but I'm honestly considering drafting him this season. Mike Evans across from Chris Godwin is easily the most talented wide receiver duo the future Hall of Fame legend has ever had. Not to mention Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, Ronald Jones, LeSean McCoy, Justin Watson, Cameron Brate, Scotty Miller and more. I also think this offensive line has gotten much better. First rounder Tristan Wirfs was a Godsend at tackle, and Brady should help himself with his pre-snap reads and swift decision-making in the pocket. My one concern is that Brady has never been a great warm-weather QB, struggling in Miami throughout his career. Will this be a factor in Tampa?
9/118. Carson Wentz, Eagles (289.6) [8]: (BUST) I've had Carson Wentz multiple times throughout his career. Had him during his MVP run on at least one team, had him the year after at least once, and had him last year on one team. I run four teams per year so he was not my only QB, but it's fair to say I'm a fan. Even so, the injury history makes having the Eagles QB a week-to-week feeling of unease. His weapons were also a major problem in 2019, and they have only improved mildly since then. I only selected Wentz last year because he fell way down in that draft. I felt the value was too good to pass on. Of course I also had Dak on that roster so Wentz became more of a backup. If you do take Carson, I highly recommend having a safety net on the roster... after all, even Philadelphia has Jalen Hurts.
10/119. Josh Allen, Bills (276.9) [9]: (SLEEPER) Not sure when's an appropriate time to bring out the term, but Josh Allen was one of my main sleepers last year and he's earned that title again in year three. Drafting Allen is not for the feint of heart however, this QB will put you on a roller coaster ride of emotions week in and week out (sometimes costing you a matchup), but when he's on he's incredible to watch. With Stefon Diggs on the roster and way more hype this preseason, I would be careful not to reach too high on him, but theoretically Josh Allen could continue to develop into a top five fantasy quarterback in 2020.
11/120. Drew Brees, Saints (303.9) [14]: (SLEEPER) When healthy, Brees had the second most QB PPG in 2019 with 24.2. Age is a factor, but behind the number one projected offensive line in football (with Sean Payton calling the plays), and throwing to Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook and more... Brees could be set up to have one of his better statistical seasons at age 41. Just don't be upset when Taysom Hill steals a touchdown here or there.
12/121. Matthew Stafford, Lions (292.4) [27]: (BUST) The classic late-round sleeper, Stafford is now ranked higher than I have ever seen heading into 2020. It's true that the Lions veteran has a great core of weapons, ranging from Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones to T.J. Hockenson and rookie D'Andre Swift, but he's also returning from a major back injury behind an average O-Line. I think Detroit attempts to run the ball more this year to take some of the burden off their QB, plus Stafford plays in a challenging division defensively. QB12 is just too high of a draft status for a player with so many uncertainties.
13/122. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (286) [7]: (SLEEPER) Wow! A pissed off Aaron Rodgers (after the Jordan Love pick) ranked as a QB13? Sign me up. Finishing seventh in points in 2019, Rodgers has proven time and time again that he is still a top ten fantasy QB. I wish Green Bay would have gotten him some help at wide receiver, but A-God will make due with whatever he has, like he's done his entire career. No issue at all drafting him this low.
14/137. Daniel Jones, Giants (258.5) [24]: (BUST) I feel like Danny Dimes has a ton of sleeper hype entering year two in the NFL, but his O-Line paired with fumble issues really concerns me. Veteran left tackle Nate Solder has opted out, meaning the Giants may have to start two rookies at tackle, plus a possible rookie at center. Besides RG Kevin Zeitler, this young O-Line will be learning to work together on the fly, and that's not good for a quarterback that's still developing.
15/138. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (262.7) [51]: (BUST) Just too many red flags here; Big Ben had an injury that could affect his throwing arm long-term, plus his play has declined with age and this offensive unit is not what it once was in the days of the Killer B's.
Bronze Draft Status (VALUE SLEEPER TERRITORY Proj. Rounds 11-End)
16/164. Cam Newton, Patriots (221.8) [50]: (BUST) There's still no guarantee Newton will be the week one quarterback in New England. This is a complex offense and I could see Stidham getting the nod with two years to learn the playbook, compared to Cam's two months. Even if he does start, Superman is a shell of his former self, with major injuries to almost every area of his body throughout his career. To make matters worse, this Pats O-Line is weaker than ever before with Marcus Cannon opting out and David Andrews' health concerns.
17/165. Ryan Tannehill, Titans (251.2) [19]: (NEUTRAL) I'm fearful of Tannehill snapping back to reality, but he did average the eighth most PPG for QB's in 2019. Jack Conklin's departure leaves the right side of the O-Line in bad shape, another concern. I don't hate Tannehill, but I'll put it this way... if he's my starting quarterback I'm nervous.
18/166. Jared Goff, Rams (255.4) [16]: (AVOID) As Goff's O-Line and arsenal of weapons continues to get worse, the former Super Bowl contender plummets down the fantasy charts. The Rams organization has a ton of financial issues right now, and until they fix them this team (and Goff) isn't going anywhere. Most 'Busts' become 'Avoids' this low in the ranks.
19/167. Baker Mayfield, Browns (238.1) [23]: (SLEEPER) Draft status is still the key determiner in finding sleepers and busts, and Mayfield is the perfect example of that. The Cleveland quarterback was over-hyped in 2019, and I rated him a bust after an extremely high ESPN rank. He did bust dramatically last year of course, to the point where many managers even released the young QB, but just one year later I am flipping the script and marking Baker as a sleeper. Why? Numerous reasons including an improved (top 10) offensive line with two sparkly new tackles, possibly the deepest group of weapons in the league (OBJ, Landry, Chubb, Hooper, Hunt, Njoku, etc.), a former top offensive coordinator with Minnesota as his new HC and play-caller (Kevin Stefanski), lowered expectations, a chip on his shoulder, and oh yeah, a QB19 rank! I think he was marked as QB4 or 5 a year ago. Times definitely change fast in the "Not For Long" (NFL) league, and I love Baker Mayfield as a low risk high reward gem in 2020.
20/168. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers (248.8) [15]: (AVOID) I don't think Jimmy G or the Niners will have a bad season, but this is a run-first offense at the end of the day and this wide receiver core is pathetic without Deebo Samuel (possibly injured to start season).
21/212. Kirk Cousins, Vikings (242.7) [13]: (AVOID) After a surprisingly good renaissance last campaign, Cousins is now left learning a new playbook yet again with Stefanski heading to Cleveland. I'm not sure on the exact numbers, but it feels like this unlucky transition has happened to Kirk more than any other consistent starter in this league. Stefon Diggs is also gone with rookie Justin Jefferson hoping to immediately fill his shoes. It's hard to see Cousins having anything more than a subpar season with this offensive unit around him.
22/219. Joe Burrow, Bengals (235.7) [N/A]: (BUST) The Bengals improved a lot of their roster this offseason. The one area they totally forgot about? Offensive line. Joe Burrow is in for a stark contrast going from LSU to Cincinnati, and I think year one will be a rough change of scenery for the first overall pick, even with an impressive wide receiver core.
23/220. Drew Lock, Broncos (240.6) [34]: (LOW-RISK SLEEPER) I wouldn't take Lock to be my starter, but he's not a bad option to draft as a backup if you have the bench space. The Broncos have steadily bulked the offensive line and wide receiver core this offseason, with Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, Graham Glasgow, Demar Dotson and Lloyd Cushenberry all joining Denver. Don't forget Melvin Gordon, and returnees Phillip Lindsay and Courtland Sutton. This could be a solid offensive unit in 2020, marking Lock as a candidate to make positive strides.
24/243. Gardner Minshew II, Jaguars (233.7) [20]: (LOW-RISK SLEEPER) Another backup candidate in deeper leagues. Minshew can play, we've all seen it. He's likely battling for a 2021 job this season, so you know he's going to bring his 'A' game.
25/244. Derek Carr, Raiders (225.8) [17]: (AVOID) With Marcus Mariota breathing down Carr's neck, there are just other options I would prefer here. Gruden doesn't seem to like the vet as his long-term starter, time might quickly be running out for Carr in Vegas.
26/245. Philip Rivers, Colts (243.1) [21]: (AVOID) Rivers was bad last season, like real bad. He does have a studly offensive line now (for the first time in a long time), but one has to wonder how often the Colts will have the veteran gunslinger throw the ball with rookie Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack as two viable runners.
27/266. Sam Darnold, Jets (227.1) [28]: (LOW-RISK SLEEPER) Darnold has the talent, there's no questioning that. The issue is whether or not the Jets have surrounded him with the right pieces. He has almost an entirely new offensive line heading into 2020 (which cannot possibly be worse than last year's group), and his receiver core looks a bit different too (Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims and Chris Hogan join Jamison Crowder). How will the chemistry be with so many new faces in New York? And can the former top prospect finally perform at a franchise QB level?
28/267. Teddy Bridgewater, Panthers (211.4) [32]: (LOW-RISK SLEEPER) Plenty of good backup stash options at this point of the draft. Bridgewater is another guy with a ton of upside at a really low draft status. Remember, Christian McCaffrey can take a two yard dump off and go 75 yards for a receiving touchdown, that counts for Teddy too!
Honorable Mentions (Avoid Entirely or Watch List)
29/268. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (195.8) [N/A]: (WATCH LIST) Doesn't look like Tua will start the season as the quarterback, but his raw talent is definitely worth keeping an eye on.
30/269. Dwayne Haskins, W.F.T. (206) [36]: (AVOID) Terrible O-Line, terrible weapons outside of Terry McLaurin. No reason to take a chance on Haskins this go around.
31/270. Justin Herbert, Chargers (184.9) [N/A]: (AVOID) Obviously you can stash Herbert on the watch list, but due to his situation on the run-first Bolts I have little interest in the rookie during his 2020 campaign.
32/297. Nick Foles, Bears (151.2) [43]: (AVOID) I want no part of Chicago's QB situation.
33/302. Jarrett Stidham, Patriots (55.4) [69]: (AVOID) Stidham has thrown more pick sixes in practice/on-field reps than touchdowns, even if Cam is unfit to start.
34/303. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins (57.4) [18]: (WATCH LIST-MATCH UP) An interesting early week streamer if the opponent is right, Tua should take over eventually.
35/311. Tyrod Taylor, Chargers (62) [52]: (AVOID) Poor compliment of weapons on this offense with an average O-Line. LAC should be a run first team no matter who's under center.
36/316. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears (101.5) [25]: (AVOID) I want no part of Chicago's QB situation.
37/317. Marcus Mariota, Raiders (42.9) [33]: (AVOID) Even if Carr is benched, I would steer clear of Mariota who has yet to prove he can be a viable NFL quarterback.
38/318. Jalen Hurts, Eagles (27.1) [N/A]: (WATCH LIST) Due to Wentz injury history and Philly's offensive prowess, Hurts becomes a rookie to stash on the watch list after the draft.
39/319. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers (19.7) [6]: SIGN if Brees is injured, tremendous O-Unit.
42/337. Andy Dalton, Cowboys (12.3) [26]: SIGN if Prescott is injured, tremendous O-Unit.
43/338. Jordan Love, Packers (10.6) [N/A]: Only an option if Rodgers is injured.
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