King Lamar... A Fantasy Review of QB Sleepers and Busts this Season
- iAmMizz!
- Dec 28, 2019
- 11 min read
Back in August I wrote an article titled, "Finding the Next Mahomes". The sentiment was right, but my predictions were definitely far from perfect. For starters, Lamar Jackson was sitting directly under all our noses fitting the exact build of Mahomes the year before (undervalued in the draft, dynamic mix of run and passing ability, the right coaching staff around him, entering year two as a full-time starter), and I missed on him. Like many out there, I just didn't see the passing ability in year one, but I've admitted fully since this Summer that I was wrong. I do think the Baltimore Ravens (like Mahomes with the Chiefs) have a lot to do with Jackson's success. That is not meant to disparage either quarterback, but the partnership between coaching and the willingness to build around a quarterback's strengths paired with the talent of the athlete itself has always been the leading factor behind winning a championship. We've seen this many times in the sports history (the Brady-Belichick conversation, Drew Brees transformation under Sean Payton's Saints, Lombardi and Starr, etc.). Lamar Jackson's new offense under John Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman may be new to some, but it really reminds me of Colin Kaepernick's ascension under Harbaugh's brother Jim in San Francisco (maybe he even gave his brother a call? haha). I'm not saying the offenses are exactly the same, but they both rely heavily on BLOCKING and RUNNING the football (old school ways), teaming massive offensive linemen like Ravens Guard Marshal Yanda or LT Ronnie Stanley with physical tight ends like Nick Boyle, Mark Andrews, AND Hayden Hurst. The Ravens clearly had a plan in place when they drafted Hurst and Andrews with high picks alongside Lamar, and the plan has worked flawlessly. Now my argument against Jackson which pegged him as a low-bust in my article was that NFL defenses (like the Chargers in the 2018 playoffs) would come up with a game strategy to stack the box and make Lamar pass. He has impressively beaten teams through the air this year more than last year, but never in my wildest dreams did I believe the Ravens would commonly start three tight ends around their O-Line not to mention a full-back Patrick Ricard who doubles as a D-Lineman on the other side of the ball. People have tried to stack the box on them (remember the Patriots game?), it just hasn't worked. The three tight ends who all block and catch as well as any, are the true unsung heroes of this offense, and Lamar Jackson has had nothing but praise for them and his teammates in general (respect). The overall partnership in Baltimore has produced an MVP campaign, and perhaps when all's said and done, a Super Bowl.
We all know about the 2019 #1 fantasy QB though, let's see how everything else shook out this season. I'll use my fantasy scoring system to provide rankings. It's a little different from standard scoring, so I'll quickly sum it up:
We do points per yard scoring for flex, so every QB's 10 passing yds = 0.4 pts (50yds = 2 pts)
Passing TD = 6 pts, Interceptions = --3 pts, Sacks = --0.5 pts, 2PC = 1 pt, 400+ yd bonus = 2 pts
It may be unconventional, but it works great for our 16 team half PPR league and we love it. So going by those settings, here were the 2019 top 15 (not including week 17 in fantasy stats):
1- Lamar Jackson(464) 2- Dak Prescott(339) 3- Russell Wilson(334.1) 4- Deshaun Watson(331.1)
5- Patrick Mahomes(314.1) 6- Jameis Winston(298.6) 7-Josh Allen(289.4) 8-Aaron Rodgers(285)
9- Carson Wentz(277) 10- Kirk Cousins(269.4) 11- Kyler Murray(268) 12- Tom Brady(267.3)
13- Matt Ryan(263.1) 14- Jimmy Garoppolo(254.1) 15- Drew Brees(238.5)
Looking at this list, there were some clear shocker sleepers this season! Forget Lamar for a minute... Dak Prescott #2?? Even Wilson at #3 wasn't expected (he's a top QB in real life but not usually in fantasy). Or Jameis at #6 and Josh Allen at 7. There were also busts (compared to where they were drafted); Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Cam Newton, Baker Mayfield, and even Patrick Mahomes to some extent (generally drafted in round two or three finishing lower than a guy like Lamar or Dak drafted towards the bottom). Dak actually went undrafted in one of my leagues (it was only a 12 team group and I signed him up quickly, but still!), Josh Allen went undrafted in MANY fantasy leagues this season, Cousins and Winston probably did too. So let's dive deeper into the top QB SLEEPERS and BUSTS of 2019. Just for fun, I'll also tell you whether I was 'right' or 'wrong' about each.
Let's start with, THE INJURED & IR'ed:
1. Patrick Mahomes- RIGHT, it's hard not to like Mahomes, next year it will be hard not to love Lamar Jackson. These guys can literally win weeks on their own for your team. Even so, my opinion on Mahomes this Summer was that he will be drafted too high and likely won't live up to that value. When he played he was his usual phenomenal self (2nd in average QB points), but his injury cost him a few weeks and while one Mahomes-led team out of my four leagues did win the title, most crashed and burned because of depth at other positions (especially in deeper leagues). One team in a 14-team league got dead last, another in my 16 competed for a Sacko Bowl, a 2nd 14-teamer missed the playoffs. The championship Mahomes team was in a 12-team league (where depth is easier to come by), perhaps the high QB strategy can work in shallow leagues but it's extremely hard to accomplish in deeper leagues, which I prefer. I know he got injured, but that's always part of the risk in fantasy, and I'll continue to advise against spending high draft capital on quarterbacks when the right sleeper can easily keep up or outperform them.
2. Ben Roethlisberger- RIGHT, I didn't have the Steelers vet getting hurt, but I had him as a bust mainly due to the loss of weapons around him, and his aging body. Based on his performance in week 1 and the Rudolph/Hodges showing without him, I'm not sure Big Ben would have had a superstar season even if he stayed healthy.
3. Cam Newton- WRONG, I didn't draft him personally, but I hinted that he could have a bounce back season. Sadly, Newton's body has let him down over and over after year's of taking a beating both on and off the field (motor-vehicle accident). It will be hard to place confidence in him next season, where-ever he may end up.
4. Drew Brees- BOTH, you could argue that both Mahomes and Brees lived up to expectations when they played, and I had Brees finishing right about where he ended up, but I also listed Brees as a player so heavily protected that he would be unlikely to get injured. He did, and it may have cost some fantasy players key match ups.
5. Sam Darnold- WRONG, Sammy was an easy breakout candidate in year two, and one that would be available at the way end of the draft (very little risk attached). His bout with mono derailed him early on, but he has improved down the stretch with his health strengthening. Even so, labeled a low risk sleeper, he didn't screw up any seasons. Perhaps year three?
6. Nick Foles- WRONG, another low risk sleeper on my board. If you drafted Foles you surely released him after week 1, and maybe you got lucky with Minshew.
THE NON-INJURY BUSTS:
1. Baker Mayfield- RIGHT, possibly my best QB prediction. I like Baker, but I try to be as impartial as I can on this blog. There was so much outrageous Baker hype going into 2019 that it was almost obvious he couldn't live up to it, especially with a weakened offensive line and a first year head coach who had no clue. Remember that conversation about Lamar Jackson above? Well Baker is a prime example of the exact opposite of a fostered development. Cleveland Football... "what not to do!"
2. Mitch Trubisky- WRONG, I wasn't a huge Trubisky fan before 2019, but for some reason I bought into his situation. I liked Nagy year one, I liked their defense and their ability to give him opportunities, I like the Bears O-Line and Trubi's athleticism (valued lower than a Watson type). I didn't realize Nagy would completely lose all ability to coach and play call, leading to a Trubisky meltdown. It got better as the season went on, but the damage was already done for anyone like myself that may have put their faith in Mitch (I did in two leagues out of four).
3. Matt Ryan- RIGHT, finishing 13th with 18.8 PPG after a full season isn't horrible, I'll admit, but Ryan was getting picked in the top 5 for quarterbacks this year. I knew that was a clear overdraft with a regressing OL in front of a career pocket passer.
4. Jared Goff- RIGHT, Goff was a compiler like Ryan (putting him 17th overall this year), but with only 15.5 PPG this was a bust season for Jared and McVay. This same QB was my sleeper that led me to a 16-team championship just two seasons before, so listing him as a bust felt like betrayal, but I did it anyway! I was really confident about this one, like Baker. The writing was on the wall with Gurley's knee issues and two sturdy O-Linemen leaving with two rookies replacing them. What I didn't expect was the complete disappearance of Brandin Cooks. Has anybody seen him since 2018?
THE PLAYERS WHO LIVED UP TO EXPECTATIONS:
1. Deshaun Watson- WRONG, I thought the chance of re-injury was too great to draft Deshaun, but he was rock solid and generally consistent most weeks, rewarding the Watson faithful.
2. Tom Brady- RIGHT, this was an easy one. Brady was typical Brady as always. Nothing flashy, just out there doing his job.
3. Aaron Rodgers- RIGHT, I liked the Packers chances at winning the division this season and for that to happen A-God had to be back to normal. He was and they did, despite running the ball more often than in the past, NFC playoffs should be exciting...
4. Carson Wentz- BOTH, some might argue Wentz was a disappointment, a value pick, or exactly what they expected. I guess this one depends on where you drafted him. I had him as a high risk sleeper meaning he could be tremendous but I'm not sure I was interested in drafting him too high. Considering how many pieces around him got injured for Philly, he's performed admirably this season and has the Eagles in a win-and-in situation tomorrow. #9 in fantasy lines up with his average draft position too.
5. Derek Carr- RIGHT, listed as one of my last low risk sleepers when he had AB, Carr ended up being a perfect backup QB this year. He finished at 16th ranked with 15.9 PPG and was by no means a sleeper, but considering he was either undrafted or drafted really low, it was a positively average fantasy season for Derek.
THE SLEEPERS:
1. Lamar Jackson- WRONG, I already talked about Lamar enough, so I'll just post the future MVP's stats: 464 points, 30.9 PPG, 3127 Passing Yards, 1206 Rushing, 43 Total TD's, 6 INT, 2 FUM.
2. Dak Prescott- BOTH, I thought Dak would be a crafty consistent draft pick this year and boy was he. He actually helped win me a 2019 title in a 14-team league, but I also signed him in a 12 and later traded him because I never thought he would be the sleeper he turned out to be. Dak played for a contract this year, and his fantasy stats certainly outweighed his real football stats... we'll all have to wait and see if he gets paid.
3. Russell Wilson- WRONG, Big Russ has always been one of my favorite QB's. He is just a wonder to watch play the game. Having said that, I never have much fantasy confidence in him because he usually disappoints. This year he finally backed up real play with fantasy numbers.
4. Jameis Winston- WRONG, I went back and forth on Winston as sleeper or player to avoid. In the end I advised we avoid him. I liked what the coaching staff of Bruce Arians might bring to his fantasy numbers (they do not even attempt to run the ball). I did not like his O-Line and his decision making. Jameis still throws interceptions at a baffling rate, but he also put up record numbers passing the ball. At 31 passing TD's and 28 INT's this year, Winston is the true enigma, his play transcends reason.
5. Josh Allen- RIGHT, finally a sleeper I predicted haha (well Dak I was on the right path). I was very wrong about Trubisky, but luckily I generally backed him up by drafting or signing Josh Allen, a player who seemed like a low risk version of him. It turned out Allen was the true sleeper, while Trubisky was a quick afterthought and failed draft pick. The Bills smartly built around Josh, like the Ravens did with Lamar, and the results yielded a trip to the postseason.
6. Kirk Cousins- WRONG, the re-emergence of Dalvin Cook saved the Vikings, like the Gurley machine once fueled Goff's play action ability. Running the ball effectively can make all the difference in football, but I'm still not sold on Cousins who laid an egg without Cook against the Packers last week.
7. Ryan Tannehill- RIGHT, I listed Tannehill as a long shot sleeper who would likely surpass Mariota as the starter. I didn't necessarily think Tannehill would average 20.1 PPG (which ranked 8th for QB's), but it's another example of how a good run game can help a quarterback.
8. Daniel Jones- RIGHT, another longshot, the new Big Blue franchise QB impressed in preseason and it wasn't long before he gave Eli the boot. At times, he became a match up sleeper this season scoring 30+ twice and 40+ once.
THE 'ALMOST' SLEEPERS:
1. Kyler Murray- BOTH, I said boldly that I did not want Kyler because I wasn't sure whether Kingsbury and the Cardinals system would be a disaster or a success. Murray ended up putting up decent numbers, especially for a rookie, but he was also sacked more than any other QB in the league. If you drafted him, you certainly weren't disappointed.
2. Jimmy Garoppolo- RIGHT, I was originally so high on Jimmy G and the Niners, but the preseason actually scared me enough not to draft him myself. Still, my initial gut recommendations were correct. The Niners flourished into one of the league's best teams and Jimmy G looked confident under center. For his draft value, he was a sleeper, but the kind you pair with another QB to play match ups, not the Lamar Jackson kind.
3. Matt Stafford- RIGHT, I loved the Lions offense going into 2019 and they didn't let me down up until injuries flat-lined their chances. Stafford was an eventual casualty himself, but he also finished 4th in average points per game at 23.8.
4. Jacoby Brissett- NEITHER, I wrote my fantasy article before Luck retired, so I didn't talk about Brissett much. You'll have to take my word that I was bullish about him as a low risk sleeper candidate behind this Colts O-Line. He started down that path before tailing off in the second half.
5. Gardner Minshew- NEITHER, like most of the world, I had no clue who Gardner Minshew was before Foles went down. Now he is a name I'll likely never forget.
6. Teddy Bridgewater- NEITHER, a good handcuff option, but I never thought Brees would go down.
THE EXPECTED NON-FACTORS & MATCH UP QB's:
1. Phillip Rivers- RIGHT, if you drafted Rivers as your starter he was more of a BUST at 14.8 PPG, but I listed him as someone to avoid. 2019 was the worst I've ever seen him play.
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen- BOTH, I said to avoid Dolphins, but gunslinger Fitz ended up being a decent match up QB down the stretch. Still, he was not somehow you'd ever consider drafting.
3. Andy Dalton/Ryan Finley- RIGHT, at best, Dalton was a fill-in for a bye or injury in deeper leagues. Hopefully you never started Finley (I know someone that did).
4. Marcus Mariota- RIGHT, I've been on the bench-Mariota train for years. It finally happened!
5. Eli Manning- RIGHT, it was time... probably took too long, but at least NYG is moving forward.
6. Joe Flacco/Brandon Allen/Drew Lock- RIGHT, no fantasy relevance here, but good news for Broncos fans is Drew Lock actually has some game.
7. Case Keenum/Dwayne Haskins- RIGHT, Haskins never seemed like an off-the-ground running type rookie QB and Keenum was a placeholder.
8. Kyle Allen/Will Grier- NEITHER, Allen had his moments, but fell off. Grier has been a mess.
9. Mason Rudolph/Devlin Hodges- NEITHER, I'm confident both of these QB's are NOT NFL starters. If Big Ben doesn't return in 2020, someone else will.
10. Jeff Driskel/David Blough- NEITHER, Driskel actually put up numbers before falling victim to the curse of Detroit. Blough more or less blew.
That's my year-end review for quarterbacks, for those keeping track I went 19-9-5 (right-wrong-both) with my predictions. How'd you do this year? Were you surprised by the results or did things fall into place as you thought they might? Did you hit on a big sleeper like Lamar or Dak? Fall for the hype of a Mayfield type? Hopefully you didn't take Mitch Trubisky as your starter like I did in two of my leagues...
Feel free to discuss with me on Facebook or Twitter, shares and likes always welcome... more position reviews are coming soon!
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