TEAM D/ST... Winning 2020 (+Kickers)

Pats fans may be disappointed by this weekend, but their defensive play was still something special this season. #1 ranked fantasy defense by a wide margin. Photo Credit: Daily Snark

When it comes to looking at defenses after the year has ended, the "hindsight is 20/20" list of successful season-long options is much shorter than other positions. That's because most Team D/ST are up and down throughout the weeks depending on who they play against, leading to a match up based strategy that fantasy managers have come to love as the sport has evolved. I talked about this as one of the four main strategies to drafting defenses back in August, in my Team D/Kicker Sleepers and Busts article. During the second half, when the prolific and poor offenses have already revealed themselves, it becomes even easier to determine the right opponents to bet against. I cannot argue that the waiver-a-week strategy doesn't work for Team D, but with anything in life, popularity leads to oversaturation, and an oversaturated strategy leads to competition. If everyone is signing up defenses each week, managers will constantly be competing for certain teams and wasting waivers on a weekly struggle to get the match up they prefer. Then just when they need one most, a key game towards the end, the playoffs, etc... they get burned.

The other strategies we talked about this Summer were, one, going for the Gold Standard (drafting a D high that you're confident won't let you down). In 2018 the Bears dominated the NFL, and fantasy, with the Rams and Texans finishing two and three for defenses. This year the Bears were a major bust finishing 18th, while the Rams finished 9th and the Texans 19th. If you thought any of those defenses were gold standard in 2019, you were wrong, and wasted draft capital. I'm not saying this strategy never works either, but it makes your draft selection that much more crucial. The second strategy was riding the wave with a team you like after the top guns fly off the board. This could always works. A Buffalo, Minnesota, or Kansas City type would have all been a decent selections this year in the second tier. New England would have been the perfect choice, depending on how high they were being taken in your league (I'm in leagues with lots of Boston natives so Patriots draft rank skews upwards). The final strategy (besides playing match ups), was waiting on a sleeper. It comes with a lot less risk if you foul up your pick, but if you're wrong you have to revert back to playing match ups or finding a new defense in free agency. One of my big sleeper defenses this season was the Browns D, which was obviously a bust. They ended up ranking 24 out of 32. The good news for me was, when I did draft Cleveland, it was low, and they were easily replaceable. People generally drop consistent D/ST's haphazardly due to a bad outing or a better match up in what seems like a key week, so you can usually find something decent in FA. In the two leagues I drafted the Browns, I ended up with the Steelers and Vikings defenses. The Steelers I signed around mid-season and kept, the Vikings were a later addition after playing the opponents for a bit. Both team D's ranked in the top five to close out 2019.

Based on expectations vs. results, the 49ers D/ST was the greatest sleeper of 2019 at this position. If you don't happen upon a top 3 sleeper defense however, try this strategy next year... Photo Credit: Washington Post

So what's the point here? What's the answer for 2020? You could always accurately predict a sleeper. San Francisco was the huge one in 2019, but you could argue the entire top five was mildly surprising. If you don't happen to get this lucky however, I would implement a strategy I learned from a friend (strategy is based on deeper leagues; 14-16 teams). Fantasy sports is always about evolving and learning from mistakes, and some people might find it stupid, but the best team in my 16 team league this year had two defenses all season. Now I disagree with the way he ran this idea (he drafted two and kept these two almost the entire season despite one being average and the other being bottom third), but it taught me something, so I decided to give it a shot down the stretch and it worked beautifully. Team D/ST is important, the difference between 10-20 points from that roster spot and 0-5 or even a negative can make all the difference in winning and losing weeks. Why not draft or acquire a team you can rely on any week (remember I don't like spending too much draft capital on this position unless you are 100% about a team, but perhaps a consistent second tier D or maybe a sleeper candidate) and KEEP THEM (too many managers ditch solid defenses with zero rhyme or reason for a one week fling). Then have a second D slot on your bench for match up weeks. It doesn't necessarily have to change every week in order for you to field a roster, but you can pick and choose when to use it. That way you never get screwed when someone snags the D/ST you want off waivers, because you still have your #1 option. Sometimes (when you don't need a defensive match up the current week) you might even want to sign a match up defense a week in advance so that no one foils your plans. I know bench slots are sparse at times, so this may not always be viable, but if you have the space I'm telling you it worked like a dream. In 2020 I will be implementing a two defense strategy with an unchanging option A, and a fluctuating option B. No more weeks of Team D duds.

Now to review 2019 in hindsight, grading sleepers and busts...

THE UNDRAFTABLE DEFENSES:

I'll just sound these ones off with their rank and say whether I was right or wrong about them...

1. Miami Dolphins- 32 (RIGHT) 2. Cincinnati Bengals- 31 (RIGHT) 3. Oakland Raiders- 30 (RIGHT) 4. Arizona Cardinals- 29 (RIGHT) 5. NY Giants- 26 (RIGHT)

6. Detroit Lions- 28... wanted to point out that before catastrophic injuries derailed them, they were playable in a match up sense, but I still had them as undraftable this Summer (RIGHT).

7. Atlanta Falcons- 27... picked it up at the end of 2019 after starting the year in misery, still finished in the bottom seven (RIGHT).

These ones were a cakewalk, I actually almost went 8/8 from my draft preview. The one mistake I made was the Tampa Bay Bucs, who I will get to later on.

THE GOLD STANDARD (SLEEPERS):

This year three teams scored over 150 points weeks 1-16 in my league, which I will mark as the gold standard for 2019. PS... all three should also be considered sleepers, especially 2&3.

1. New England Patriots- 1 (RIGHT)... another 2020 idea to implement has to be scouting schedules, especially early season ones. This can be utilized with QB's as well, but the Pats early season schedule was one of the least challenging and most inept offensively that I've seen in a long time. Some of that is unpredictable (injuries to opponents star players, unexpected poor play, etc.), but it's worth looking into if you're deciding between two or three defenses in the draft. The Pats D scored 229 points this year averaging 15.3 per game, a lot of which came during the first half.

Pay attention to mid-season trades, adding playmakers (like Minkah Fitzpatrick) can spark an entire defense like it did in Pittsburgh. Photo Credit: USA Today

2. Pittsburgh Steelers- 2 (WRONG)... was it just me or were the Steelers the best defense that was most commonly available in 2019, either them or the Ravens hands down. I thought this unit would have more on their plate this year with the offense regressing and after the Big Ben injury, it turned out I was right, but it didn't matter due to coaching and young superstar talent. TJ Watt broke out, rookie Devin Bush looks like a tremendous pick, the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade spoke volumes about the organization's confidence and aggressiveness. All that teamed with sturdy veterans like Cam Heyward and their crew of corner-backs led to the rise of a new Steel Curtain.

3. San Francisco 49'ers- 3 (RIGHT)... listed as a low-risk sleeper, my exact quote was, "if Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Deforest Buckner, Kwon Alexander, Jason Verrett & Richard Sherman can stay on the field, watch out, these boys will turn some heads," and they did. I want to add MLB Fred Warner and DT Arik Armstead to that group. My only regret is I didn't draft, or sign them quickly enough, in any of my leagues.

THE EXPECTED 2ND TIER DEFENSES (sleepers not included):

1. Minnesota Vikings- 5 (WRONG)... always ranked high, but a D I marked for regression with aging talents and an untrustworthy offense. Dalvin Cook and the run game changed everything for the Vikes this year.

2. Buffalo Bills- 6 (RIGHT)... I actually listed them as gold standard, but the only reason they didn't reach that podium was a lack of turnovers and touchdowns. This D/ST was rock solid all 2019.

Don't forget about special teams when drafting defenses, the Chiefs return game (Hardman picture above) alone gives them fantasy value. Photo Credit: Kansas City Star

3. Kansas City Chiefs- 7 (RIGHT)... the Chiefs D/ST always seems to put up numbers with high turnover rates and some of the most dynamic special teams players in football. Hello Mecole Hardman, meet Tyreek Hill!

4. Tennessee Titans- 8 (RIGHT)... the Titans D is just well-run. They may not light up the stat sheet but you can always count on them for some points in a pinch. Just look at their gritty performance wildcard weekend allowing zero points in the second half against NE.

5. LA Rams- 9 (BOTH)... I was wrong to include them in the gold standard in my preview, but if you drafted them they didn't really disappoint either. Another play-making turnover heavy defense like the Chiefs who generally have fantasy appeal.

6. Indianapolis Colts- 10 (RIGHT)... before Andrew Luck retired, this defense had a lot less to do in 2019. Even so, they had a decent year finishing 10th with 111 points.

7. New Orleans Saints- 13 (RIGHT)... it wasn't the best year for the Saints D but they still finished over 100 points at 108.8 and were reliable most weeks. They are the perfect type of team to draft lower and keep in a two defense strategy (many good candidates on this list).

8. Seattle Seahawks- 14 (BOTH)... I listed the Hawks D as a bust for 2019. They weren't anything special but they did finish just over 100 points. Pete Carroll and Bobby Wagner are always good bets to salvage a unit, and adding Jadeveon Clowney didn't hurt.

THE BUSTS:

1. Chicago Bears- 18 (RIGHT)... can't say I thought they would drop this far but a let down year was always likely, looked like they gave up on Trubisky and the coach during the second half.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars- 22 (WRONG)... a team I really liked for a bounce back gold standard season. I drafted them in one league and released them after a couple weeks in favor of the Saints. Once the Jalen Ramsey drama started I was OUT, this team is an organizational mess.

3. Houston Texans- 19 (RIGHT)... a weak secondary and too many injury prone players for me, plus I was right about Watt being unable to stay healthy two straight seasons.

4. LA Chargers- 25 (WRONG)... losing second year safety Derwin James wasn't heavily publicized, but I felt it was a lethal blow. This team just didn't live up to any expectations after 2018.

5. Denver Broncos- 17 (WRONG)... with Vic Fangio calling the shots, I expected more from this Denver defense, but they never could get the ball rolling in fantasy.

Myles Garrett's famous implosion could be used to sum up the Browns season in a nutshell. Photo Credit: Slate Magazine

6. Cleveland Browns- 24 (WRONG)... not sure if anyone else was with me on the Dawg Pound defense, but after 2018 I thought they would lead this team and become a sleeper behind rising stars, Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. The former is now suspended indefinitely.

7. Washington Redskins- 21 (WRONG)... I thought this defense would be competent even if the offense wasn't, it turned out to be the other way around in Washington.

THE VALUE SLEEPERS (Patriots, Steelers, & 49ers already listed above as the top three of 2019):

4. Baltimore Ravens- 4 (WRONG)... the Ravens D definitely benefited from the offenses domination in the time of possession category, but even so Earl Thomas and this secondary loaded with lock-down corners allowed the coaches to blitz at a league leading rate.

Shaq Barrett became a premier pass rusher in 2019, and the Bucs became a menacing afternoon for opposing tackles between him and a revitalized Pierre-Paul in 2019. Photo Credit: Pewter Report

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 11 (WRONG)... more of a match up sleeper, Todd Bowles turned this team into a pass rushing nightmare WITH a stout run defense. If they can add a secondary, they will be dangerous in 2020.

6. NY Jets- 12 (RIGHT)... take out the Luke Falk games and this defense was always a decent fantasy option, and they did that without CJ Moseley, Avery Williamson, Trumaine Johnson, Jordan Jenkins, Leonard Williams (traded), and majority of their highest paid defensive players for most of the season. Props to DC Gregg Williams who remains one of the best in the game (by the way, the Cleveland defense got noticeably worse without G-Dub coaching the unit).

7. Green Bay Packers- 15 (RIGHT)... listed as a long shot sleeper, they started the season hot, then cooled off against tougher teams. The Pack was still able to help win some match ups though.

8. Philadelphia Eagles- 16 (BOTH)... borderline, but considering they were submarined by injuries all season and they still put up okay fantasy points (and somehow made the playoffs), I can't call them a complete bust (I picked them as a higher risk sleeper, like the Browns).

The Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers, both listed as long shot sleepers during the Summer, were the only other two teams unlisted. Those picks didn't quite work out so I'll mark them as WRONG, but they weren't busts either because they wouldn't have cost you anything but a spot on your watch list. That brings my final preseason record to (18-11-3) for Team D/ST.

KICKERS:

Wil Lutz dominates as top fantasy kicker. *louder so he can hear you* Photo Credit: Sporting News

This year the top three kickers were players you would expect, top talents on high scoring offenses (which is still the easiest qualifications for drafting kickers if you want to spend a higher pick). In my league Wil Lutz ranked 1st overall with 122, then Harrison Butker at 117.5, and finally Justin Tucker at 107.5. The surprise came at #4, where the Bucs Matt Gay finished largely due to Tampa Bay's ridiculous pass heavy offense. He was 2019's biggest sleeper, but honorable mentions should go to; rookie replacement Joey Slye (CAR) and redemption story Chris Boswell (PIT) tied for 6th, Zane Gonzalez (ARI) at 8th, and Dan Bailey (MIN) for overcoming a Vikings curse to round out the top 10.

I hope you didn't follow my sleeper list, my kicker choices were easily some of my worst for any position... Mike Badgley got injured immediately, Robbie Gould had his worst year statistically, Giorgio Tavecchio was cut, Aldrick Rosas and Brett Maher (also cut) returned to their downright awful ability, and so on. My only decent sleepers here were Matt Prater (ranked 5th) and Josh Lambo (ranked 12th). Granted I didn't include guys like Lutz, Butker, and Tucker because they were known to be good, but still, theses other candidates were miserable.

Stephen Gostkowski, Robbie Gould, and Ka'imi Fairbairn were probably 2019's greatest busts at kicker, but the great thing about this position is you can effortlessly sign another.