NFL Offseason Grades: AFC East... Overthrowing an Autocracy
- iAmMizz!
- Jul 23, 2019
- 17 min read
Updated: Dec 14, 2019
Growing up in the '90s, Boston sports wasn't much of a concern for us New Yorkers. Sure, the Celtics were a famous franchise, but personally I never watched much NBA. The Bruins had their runs of success, but hockey has never been front and center in American sports. As a Mets fan in baseball, I almost felt bad for the Red Sox 100 year curse, uniting with them on how arrogant Yankee fans could be. Possibly the least talked about team of the region was the New England Patriots (formerly Boston), who were a below average franchise up until the 2000's. They had made the playoffs and won divisions certain years, but never any Superbowls, and nothing even close to dynastic reign. Older NY Jets fans I've met hated teams like the Miami Dolphins who had two Superbowl wins out of five appearances (including the legendary perfect season in 1972 under Don Shula), the Colts who were a rival in the East for most of their franchise's history, or even the Buffalo Bills who had a mini-dominant stretch from 1988-1993 with Jim Kelly (making four straight SB's, despite losing all of them). In fact, the Patriots had only won the division five times and made the playoffs twice that many (two AFC championships) in the 40 years from 1960-2000. As for the Jets, they weren't very successful either, but did have the one Joe Namath Superbowl to hang their hats on. At the turn of the century, everything changed...
In the last 18 years, the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady led New England franchise has won the AFC East an unfathomable 16 total times, the only outliers being in 2002 when the Jets won, and 2008 when Miami narrowly beat out a Brady-less Pats team. Those two years were also the only two playoff misses this century. Even more impressive, the six Superbowl rings and nine AFC titles! But we all know about those. The point is, the Patriots were no longer a below average franchise that was overlooked and disregarded, they were now the focus of envy and loathing all around the league, they were now the greatest dynasty in the history of sports... aka the best, and no one ever likes the best, unless of course you are a part of it.
Now I know Boston friends of mine will expect me to find something wrong with the Patriots and convince myself that this will be the year they finally lose the division... hasn't happened in ten straight seasons... but I'm not going to do it. THIS TIME, I won't be that guy, in part because I do want to write these pieces with an air of impartiality, and also because picking against them has never worked up to this point! So I'll do my best to leave all the ill feelings in the past and hone in on the Patriots (or Bad Bill's) offseason following another Superbowl in 2018. I'm a huge Belichick admirer myself (left-bottom), not to say Brady (left-top) doesn't deserve credit or who deserves more or any of that, but this man is the greatest coach of all time and there's really no denying it. For starters, he basically runs this franchise with very little assistance, acting as head coach, GM, defensive coordinator, and more most seasons. The Pats generally have one of the smallest coaching staffs in the NFL (more personnel equals more leaks of information and too many voices in the player's heads), and that's no coincidence. The other half of this tremendous feat is the longevity of its sustained victory. In football even more so than most sports, you usually hear about tight windows of opportunity while young players are on cheap contracts, and high turnover rate around the league due to cap space and having to manage such a large roster within it. The money isn't infinite, it's heavily regulated, and championship teams generally go through rebuilds after a run of a few seasons or so not because they want to, because they NEED to... only the Patriots haven't rebuilt in 20 years. Belichick's system has been revolutionary. Many teams have attempted to steal his model of success, they've all failed. I would attribute this to coaching. The Belichick way, whose battle cry has been "Do Your Job!" throughout most of the triumph, relies only on one player: Tom Brady. Some might even argue that Brady himself is replaceable, Belichick chief among them, even if he might not admit it. The roster building doesn't rely on finding the best talent, but rather finding the right players to fill the perfect roles. Journeyman commonly have career seasons under Bill, only to fall back into futility after leaving his service. Rookies are asked to play major roles, only to be shipped away once they ask for more money. No one is exempt to hard work, and there are no free passes on the road to Canton.
New England's moves in the Spring were a lot like they usually are, uneventful, which probably means they'll be in the AFC Championship again. One decision did catch the headlines though. Only two or three players have risen to a value above being just another cog in the system over the course of this dynasty (besides Brady), and one them called it quits. Future Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski, beloved by fans for his beastly behavior on and off the field, decided it was finally time to put his health above all else. Assuming there is no change of heart, the Pats will have a void to fill at tight end, but I don't doubt Belichick's ability to fill it. Since Gronk's retirement was made public, the Pats wasted no time cycling through tight ends Austin Seferian-Jenkins (already released), Ben Watson (suspended to start the year), Matt LaCosse, Michael Roberts (trade fell through, waived), and rookie options in camp. Dwayne Allen and Jacob Hollister also went separate ways with New England, so this has been a major focus. The other key point of emphasis has been in the wide receiver room. With Hogan and Patterson getting contracts with other teams and Josh Gordon's status unknown, the Pats brought in Bruce Ellington (cut shortly after), Demaryius Thomas (recovering from an achilles injury), Dontrelle Inman, Maurice Harris, and first round draft pick N'Keal Harry to compete alongside Edelman, Dorsett, and Berrios. As you can see, Belichick's method involves trial & error and even quantity over quality at times, but I have no doubt one of these TE's and at least one of these WR's will end up stepping into a tremendous season. Why? Because it happens EVERY YEAR... the question is who. If there was a concern besides Gronk's absence, it might be the tackle position. Like most quarterbacks, Brady hates taking hits, and if veteran Marcus Cannon sticks on the right side, will second year (missed entire rookie season with injury) LT Isaiah Wynn be able to handle the left? Or will the Pats be forced to make another trade similar to acquiring Trent Brown in 2018, who was well paid for his one year rejuvenation in NE. LaAdrian Waddle had been a depth option behind Brown and Cannon in 2018, but he's gone too. The X-factor is Patriots O-line coach, Dante Scarnecchia, who seems to produce gold out of whatever piece of dung that comes his way. On defense (the ultimate 'do your job' portion of this team), changes were minor. Mike Pennel replaces Malcolm Brown on the D-line. Rookie Joejuan Williams adds depth at corner that was lost with Eric Rowe's departure. LB Jamie Collins returns after a rough time away from Boston. Finally, veteran Michael Bennett was traded for to account for Trey Flowers decision to leave for Detroit and Chase Winovich was also drafted with an eye towards the future. Fellow edge rusher Adrian Clayborn also went back to Atlanta.
Offseason Grade: B... I would give this a higher grade because of how much faith I have in Belichick IF Gronk's retirement hadn't occurred. That might be the one thing Bill cannot account for right now, besides a Brady injury (maybe... or would Brian Hoyer have a pro bowl season?). Even so, New England spent minimal money on contracts and seem to be perfectly fine picking through the scraps of the NFL's trash heap, like always. All is calm in the Northeast, and that worries me.
The New York Jets had possibly the most active offseason out of any team in football. Now that isn't necessarily a good thing... it's exciting, it's the dawn of a new age perhaps, or it's just the start down another rabbit hole. I'm not sure there's a specific word I'd use to describe the last few months of Jets football news, unprecedented? Nah. Bizarre? Yes, but that's not it either. Baffling? Always. Bold? Perhaps, if things turn out well. Progressive? Us fans can only hope. The Winter began with an expected firing of a coaching staff, and a drawn out hiring of another that ended in a familiar face... but not necessarily the one most fans hoped for. While cries for Mike McCarthy went unheard, the Johnson family went with Adam Gase who was fresh off the boat from Miami after being fired by the Dolphins. Gase's problems in Miami were no secret, but while some viewed his time there as a complete failure, I go back and forth on it. During his time with the Dolphins, I generally thought Gase did a lot more than expected with a relatively poor roster and no consistency at the QB position, and apparently the Jets agreed. I was also extremely ANTI-McCarthy, who couldn't win any games once Rodgers went down. Gase definitely wasn't my favorite, Arians was (because of his connection to Bowles that seemed impossible), but he fit the right mold. The Jets needed an experienced coach, that was clear... they needed a creative offensive mind, it's been defensive coaches in NY as far back as I can remember... they needed someone to teach Darnold, Gase worked with Peyton Manning in his earlier years and did surprisingly well with Tim Tebow... so in the end I came around to the hire. Whether you like it or not, it's done now, and this go around will be put up or shut up time for the offensive guru. The hire I really loved was Gregg Williams at D-coordinator. The pair make a combo that takes no sh-- from no one and that's the type of coaching staff the Jets need if they're going to try and take down the Goliath. Fear and intimidation cannot be an option in football, unless you're the one instilling it. From here is where things got odd, the Jets allowed GM Mike McCagnan to spend all their money, have at least a large say in all their draft picks, and shape the future of this franchise... only to fire him right before camp. No one truly knows why the Jets retained Mac, then let him go months later after these crucial decisions were made. Some rumors are that Gase and him didn't gel together, others are that he spent cap space too frivolously on key free agent acquisitions Le'Veon Bell and CJ Mosley. Whatever the reasons, Mac was out, and in steps Joe Douglas, a man who came highly recommended from his time in Chicago and Philadelphia. Many attribute much of the Eagles recent championship pedigree to Douglas, and the Jets will hope this GM-coaching combo is finally one that sticks around for years to come.
Before we even get to the players, there was one final revision... a re-branding. With a fresh start comes fresh uni's, and the Jets new calling card became Gotham Green, a richer color with a massive New York City vibe behind it. A jersey's value is only determined by the player who wears it though, and winning will be the only thing that matters to fans come September. With sights set high and optimism actually showing its face, Sam Darnold will be front and center when it comes to performance in his year two season. The idea was to give him more weapons and protection, and Mac certainly did that, even if it was his final act. Besides the Le'Veon signing (which meant the end of Isaiah Crowell in NY), the Jets also signed slot receiver Jamison Crowder, gadget-back and return man Ty Montgomery, depth wide outs Josh Bellamy and Deonte Thompson, and tight ends Daniel Brown and Ryan Griffin (as well as draft pick Trevon Wesco). Vets like Rishard Matthews, Jermaine Kearse, Andre Roberts, and Neal Sterling were all cut or let go in the process. Possibly the biggest offensive move besides Bell was on the line however, a weak spot in Darnold's rookie season. With Spencer Long, James Carpenter, and Dakota Dozier all sent packing, the Jets had some openings, not that any of those players would be missed. Although they struck out at center, and will have to start Jonotthan Harrison, the intriguing get was at LG. I thought MacCagnan made a very smart trade for Kelechi Osemele (a former Pro Bowler that is still young, but fell out of favor with Gruden in Oakland). Say what you want about Mac, but this could end up going down as his most creative deal throughout his entire tenure with the Jets. Back up RT Chuma Edoga was added through the draft, a former Darnold teammate in college, and Tom Compton was brought over for depth, but in the end the O-line currently starts four out of the same five it finished with last season. Even with Osemele, this is an area Douglas will look to improve on. G-Williams defense should be the strength of this squad, which fits Jets football of old. It's unclear whether the Jets will stick to the 3-4 they've been known for over the years, or switch to 4-3, or play a form of hybrid that uses both. I'd bet on the last option, being that Williams has switched back and forth between different schemes throughout his career. No matter the formation, the third overall pick in the draft, DT Quinnen Williams out of Alabama will be a huge part of it, literally and figuratively. He's 6'3" 295 with speed and athleticism coming at opposing O-lines. With Q-Will up the middle, Leonard Williams and Henry Anderson may have an easier time pushing the gaps by his side. The D also feels as if it has identity and leadership for the first time since Bart Scott and Rex Ryan, adding CJ Mosley alongside Avery Williamson, not to mention Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye behind them. The trouble areas will be at corner and edge rush, like usual. Brian Poole will take over for Buster Skrine in the nickel, a mild upgrade at best, but behind Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts there is very little on the outside. If they stay 3-4, the edge rushers would likely rotate Brandon Copeland, Jordan Jenkins, rookie Jachai Polite, and Frankie Luvu. Darron Lee, Jerry Attaochu, Morris Claiborne, and Mike Pennel are among those leaving East Rutherford, and Chandler Catanzaro will replace Jason Myers at the kicker position.
Offseason Grade: B+... this was a tough one, the Jets certainly upgraded on both offense and defense, there's no denying that, but they spent a ton of money to do it. If they come up short with this core like they did with Fitzpatrick and Brandon Marshall's group a few years back, it may be 3-5 more years of disaster and precious time wasted for Darnold and the youth. I'm relatively optimistic about the coaching selections this time and I'm pretty pumped about the GM hire, but special teams got worse, they didn't do enough to help the secondary or the O-line yet, and the edge rushers are still lacking after Anthony Barr flipped NY the bird on free agency's opening night. I personally didn't want Bell, agreeing with Gase that you don't spend big on RB's, but I won't complain now that the Jets have him. Make no mistake, it's playoffs or bust these next two seasons for Gang Green, but hey, if they fail us fans may be in for some new jerseys... again.
Buffalo Bills football has become known more for its fan-base than its on the field product in recent years. They are the only team that hasn't won the division in the 2000's (there last AFC East title was in 1995), and they hadn't made the playoffs either until that long drought was finally snapped in 2017. The Bill's Mafia (a nickname given to the die-hard Buffalo fans who drink, fight, tailgate, and fly through tables with the best of them) on the other hand have soared with popularity in the social media age, gaining attention for their antics and their high tolerance for pain. General Manager Brandon Beane and Head Coach Sean McDermott are looking to rewrite that narrative, and with all the turnover this offseason, this franchise is clearly tired of being a joke. In a similar win-now mode as the Jets, with year two QB Josh Allen who has arm strength, speed, athleticism, and raw ability unlike most at the position, the Bills spent heavily on their offensive line. Guards John Miller and Ryan Groy were cut along with tackle Jordan Mills in favor of a girth of replacements. The headliners are probably Mitch Morse, experienced center from Kansas City, and Ty Nsekhe, breakout RT in Washington, but interior linemen Spencer Long, Quinton Spain, and Jon Feliciano will also compete at guard with LaAdrian Waddle as tackle depth. Second round draft pick Cody Ford should factor in as well, and could easily start somewhere in this unit. Following that same theme of helping a younger QB feel comfortable, the Bills added to Allen's arsenal. Frank Gore replaces Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon joins the backfield with him, giving Buffalo three experienced running backs (Shady McCoy is still lead). The Bills then stole speed threat John Brown, slot-man Cole Beasley, and returner extraordinaire Andre Roberts away from their respective teams, adding to wide receiver and special teams. Tyler Kroft and Lee Smith will be the new tight ends, with Charles Clay time in Northern NY coming to an end.
On the defensive side, Buffalo has been impressive even in the rougher seasons. They made the playoffs on the back of the D in 2017, and last season their defense kept them in many games they probably wouldn't have normally had a chance in. They ranked second lowest in yards allowed in 2018! And yet their points allowed was middle of the pack. That's usually a sign that the offense puts the D in bad situations, due to turnovers and poor field position. Well there's no reason to believe that hungry defense can't be better this year, with virtually no key players leaving on that side of the ball, and more talent entering the folds. First round draft pick Ed Oliver should be a nightmare for opposing O-lines at DT and with veterans like Jerry Hughes, Trent Murphy, and Star Lotulelei around him, Oliver can will have plenty of advice in perfecting his craft. Eli Harrold joins that group of edge rushers as well, adding to a D-line depth that rivals the ocean. CB EJ Gaines and safeties Kurt Coleman and Maurice Alexander join the secondary, but what I'm really excited about is another year of Tre'Davious White developing into a Grade A corner (entering his year three season, he should be one of the best in the NFL at the position). Similarly, Tremaine Edmunds will get another year under his belt at middle linebacker. This defense packs a punch, and may just be the most balanced, scariest, under-the-radar group going into 2019.
Offseason Grade: B+... I really see a ton of similarities between Buffalo and NYJ this Spring. Both got better, but the questions will lie in whether they spent their money wisely or not, and whether or not Darnold and Allen will take the next steps as franchise QB's. The Bills brought in a lot of O-line, some decent offensive weapons, and made minor tweaks and upgrades on defense. They probably did a better job at securing each position as a whole than the Jets, but the Jets brought in more star power, while Buffalo went with a more budgeted approach. I think both teams will be right in the thick of the AFC Wildcard race, but can either really pose a threat to the Patriots?
Well the good news for the Jets and Bills is; no matter how they do this season, they aren't likely to be the laughing stock of the division, Miami should have that covered. A team in complete rebuild under GM Chris Grier and brand new head coach Brian Flores (another Belichick disciple), the Dolphins have been selling everybody. We'll start with Flores though. This is another grasp at the Patriots secret, we've seen is how many times now? A team takes the closest guy to Belichick and prays that he becomes the next HOF coach. Now I'm not necessarily ripping Flores specifically because he did a fine job last season, but seriously Miami? The best you could come up with is a guy who was barely even D-coordinator one season with the Patriots, on a defense that is largely run by the head coach anyway? It just seems like a real stretch of a hire, and being that most Belichick students have failed as NFL coaches, the pressure will certainly be on Flores to turn this thing around, but at least he'll have some time to do so. With this changing of the guards came a surprising series of trades. Ryan Tannehill was sent packing to Tennessee, the former franchise QB in Miami struggled with injuries throughout his time on South Beach, but was solid when he played. Then, after bringing in veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins traded for Josh Rosen, a first round pick last year who the Cardinals were shopping on the cheap. I wasn't a huge Rosen guy from the start, even in college, but I can't argue with the value in the Cardinals-Dolphins trade. It was a nice exchange for a team that's starting over, until I heard rumors Fitzpatrick may still be QB#1? Maybe Flores doesn't have as much job security as I thought... or Rosen is that bad?
The rest of the moves were mostly a fire sale. Gore left to Buffalo, leaving Kenyan Drake as the lead back, with flier Mark Walton being added as a backup. Veterans like Danny Amendola, Josh Sitton, Wesley Johnson, Ja'Wuan James, Ted Larsen, Cameron Wake, and Robert Quinn all left the comfort of Magic City too, via free agency, trade, or retirement. Aside from a few ex-divisional opponents like Pats CB Eric Rowe and TE Dwayne Allen, Bills RG Jordan Mills, and Jets TE Clive Walford, the signings were slim to none. The Dolphins seemed more interested in trying to gain information from their rivals than building a competitive roster. Draft picks Christian Wilkins (1st) and Michael Deiter (3rd) should be able to start as rookies on D and O-line. Might as well give them the reps with little talent ahead of them on the depth chart.
Offseason Grade: D+... the O-line is an absolute mess, the defense has gaps throughout, and the QB situation seems to have some miscommunication between head coach and GM. The good news is, this is a predominately young group, which will allow players to battle and try and make a name for themselves. Expectations will surely be low, but that's the perfect time to try and surprise some people.
I'm no fool, and trust me I have been in the past, but it's the old fool me once twice ten times expression that I cannot abide. I will not be picking against the Patriots until I see it happen. Until the day they're mathematically eliminated from the AFC East title, I will assume that they'll be there at the top of it. So New England will take its 11th straight division title, and the Miami Dolphins will pull up the rear with one of the worst records in the NFL. I will take my team, the New York Jets, to beat out the Bills for second in the division, meaning Buffalo will miss the playoffs again (because I do not believe three teams will make it out of the East). The Jets won't have an easy road to the playoffs, but the pressure is on to make it there. It's about to get dirty.
So... being that this is my final Offseason Divisional Grade (I know, I know you're all sad to see this end), I will give my bonus AFC round up like I did in my NFC South article, predicting wildcards and recapping my playoff picks. First off, my division winners: I had the Cleveland Browns (North), Los Angeles Chargers (West), Indianapolis Colts (South), and New England Patriots (East) as my first four in the 2019 AFC playoff bracket. This conference is pretty wide open after that. If they lose the division, I am confident the Kansas City Chiefs will get a wildcard now that Hill is cleared to play (assuming Mahomes stays healthy), so that leaves one spot and many teams to fight over it. The Ravens, Steelers, Jets, Bills, Jaguars, Titans, Texans, Broncos, and Raiders could all easily be in the hunt depending on how the season goes. The only two teams that I don't give any shot to are the Bengals and Dolphins. Having said that, I feel the Broncos, Raiders, Bills, and Steelers aren't quite as complete teams as the others. The Texans have too many injury risks for me, and the Titans don't wow me enough either, so that leaves three teams. I actually feel the Ravens have taken a step back defensively, and the Lamar gimmick can't work forever, so I'll drop them out of the race as well. That leaves the Jets and the Jags. Obviously you know who I'll be rooting for to claim that final spot, if indeed they cannot beat out the Pats, but whichever team emerges second from the South should pose a major threat to NY. Just talking through these wildcards makes you realize how tough it is to make the NFL Playoffs, and that's what makes this sport so incredible... is it September yet?
P.S. Don't miss my NFL fantasy rankings, coming in August!!!
Collage Photo Credit: Tom Brady Picture- Pats Pulpit, Bill Belichick Picture- TMZ
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