NFL Offseason Grades: AFC North... the New Era

Since the AFC North was born in 2002 (formerly the AFC Central), Pittsburgh has largely been champion of Heartland America. In the 17 seasons after the change, the Steelers have won the division eight times and the Super Bowl two out of three appearances (one win as a wildcard in 2005). Baltimore has been no slouch in this period either, as they have been kings of the North five times, winning one Superbowl in 2012. That leaves four division winning years left for two teams, but those four were all claimed by Cincinnati. The Cleveland Browns, a running joke for ineptitude not just in the NFL but in all of sports, have yet to win the AFC North since its creation. In fact, they have only made the playoffs once (2002, the inaugural season). Even worse, they have only had winning record twice, and they have finished last in the North a total of 13 out of 17 years. The numbers are astoundingly poor, and there’s no defending them, but last year the Dawg Pound finally saw the light at the end of the tunnel, or so they think.

The Browns Dawg Pound fan base. These guys need the playoffs. Photo Credit: Dawgs By Nature

Browns football fandom has never been hotter, and Cleveland hasn’t been on the sports map like this since LeBron left… again. It all began with an 0-16 season, followed by a number one draft pick in 2018. Instead of drafting the highly touted Sam Darnold, raved about by prospects for years as the next top quarterback in the NFL, or Saquon Barkley, a running back paralleled with legend Barry Sanders in potential, the Browns made an audible. In the final week or so leading up to the draft, reports changed and Heisman winner out of Oklahoma (the fiery competitor that is Baker Mayfield) became the new pride of Cleveland. A few big moves and the magnifying glass that is Hard Knocks came next, and the Browns became America’s new darling (move over Dallas). After a mixed bag season with massive coaching overhauls, tough losses, a quarterback change, and a win (which took about a year and a half to accomplish), Browns fans saw something they forgot existed, hope. Baker looked impressive, and he brought with him the attitude of a winner, someone who expects to be victorious every time he walks onto the field, and someone who is notably pissed if he isn’t. That’s exactly why general manager John Dorsey loved Mayfield in the first place, he’s a big time player with an infectious spirit. He’s the type of guy that can change the culture.

So what was Dorsey’s next move to keep the momentum going?- Cleveland finished 7-8-1 in 2018 and missed out on the playoffs by a few tight games- he doubled down. The Browns have again become the talk of the offseason with a few monster moves. The first one may have rubbed a few people the wrong way, and I can’t blame anyone if it did. Shortly after the Chiefs cut record-breaking star running back Kareem Hunt for a domestic violence case, Dorsey snatched him up. Personally, I think the penalties on these cases should be worse, but the NFL has been balancing the tightrope between protecting its players and losing the respect of the audience for years. Hunt will miss a little more than half of this season, but he’ll be available for the final stretch. Do you think Browns fans will really balk at Hunt’s character if he helps the team win… after all these years of losing? Probably not. However you feel about it, Hunt will be in brown and orange, and so will Odell Beckham. The blockbuster trade that was speculated for months finally shot through the league like canonfire. All it took was excess draft picks, money, and Jabrill Peppers (all things the Browns had plenty of… except Peppers). It was a no brainer for them, an absolute steal, and another bombshell. Baker now has Landry and OBJ to throw to with now-second year phenom Nick Chubb and Hunt in the backfield, a totally different offense. That wasn’t the only trade with the Giants though, the Browns then acquired veteran pass rusher Olivier Vernon, sacrificing O-line Kevin Zeitler. I actually liked this trade for the G-Men, but that doesn’t mean I didn’t like it for the Browns. One thing they actually had on their losing rosters was an okay offensive line, and with their defense breaking out in 2018, Dorsey decided to add even more pass rush to push it over the edge, figuring his young mobile quarterback could handle the trade off. They then supplemented the line with players like Eric Kush, Kendall Lahm, and Bryan Witzmann trusting that one of them (or 2018 second rounder Austin Corbett) can fill the void. Vernon will take over for the lackluster edge rush of Emmanuel Ogbah, who they recently let go. Players like linebacker Jamie Collins, safety Derrick Kindred, cornerbacks EJ Gaines and Briean Boddy-Calhoun, tackle Earl Watford, wideouts Breshad Perriman and Ricardo Louis, and tight end Darren Fells were all calculated losses as well. A lot of turnover, but a roster transforming from a loser to a winner will always have that, and the new faces have upside. The secondary was very deep on the Browns, even last year, but they added corner Greedy Williams through the draft to someday play alongside high first rounder Denzel Ward (second year). They also brought in long-time Green Bay Packer and brief Steeler Morgan Burnett to play strong safety. Another big move was signing Sheldon Richardson at defensive tackle to play next to Larry Ogunjobi (Myles Garrett and Vernon on the ends)... with rumors that they may also add the experienced Gerald McCoy to the mix (released by the Bucs to save cap). I don’t feel they need McCoy as Ogunjobi is a solid DT but this addition would add even more depth and prowess to the Browns defensive front. Fliers on linebacker Adarius Taylor and receiving tight end Demetrius Harris are also worth noting. The one thing I notice that worries me is that the Browns now have a lot of players who have not been known as great teammates or people throughout their careers (OBJ, Richardson, Hunt to name a few). Rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens will have to keep a handle on things if they start going south.

Offseason Grade: A... there are certainly some risks here in terms of clashing personalities, hiring Kitchens over experience, and betting on the Browns in general with their history of awful luck, but I’m feeling the fever. The offense has added a ton of weapons and is upgraded ten fold from last year. The defense has added experience to the impressive youth that stifled opponents. The team as a whole could grow together and become a powerhouse of this league, but of course, you never know in Cleveland.

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin looks on after a loss. Photo Credit: Behind the Steel Curtain

We’ll move to Pittsburgh next. The Steel Curtain that once defined a team built on defensive backbone has turned into the Killer B’s in recent years, an explosive offense known for more headlines than titles. Both phases are now over. In some ways, you could argue the Steelers are better off by finally ridding themselves of players like Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Martavis Bryant before them. To me, it all depends on what you replace them with. The running back position seems fine. For starters, Pittsburgh has had one of the top offensive lines in the league for years, and that helps anyone running the ball, whether it is Bell or the much quieter James Conner, who had a tremendous season in his place. Brown’s obvious fill-in is Juju Smith-Schuster, but as everyone slides up the depth chart, did they do enough to replace Juju’s former role? I also have questions about Big Ben, another B who has been more trouble than talent in his recent tenure. After mulling retirement over a couple times, Roethlisberger signed an extension this offseason, right in the midst of a twitter war with AB (who’s now in Oakland). The curtain may have fallen a generation ago, but now the Steel City itself seems to be crumbling from within. After all the departures, is Pittsburgh’s time over, or can Coach Tomlin prove that sometimes less is actually more?

Besides Bell and Brown, the Steelers also traded right tackle Marcus Gilbert to the Cardinals, a loss that is less easy to replace in my opinion. This successful line has been together a long time, and I wonder if this is the beginning of the end for it as well. As mentioned above, Morgan Burnett’s short stay in PA ended with little success, and tight end Jesse James will move on to a bigger pay day in Detroit. They also decided to blow up the middle linebacker crew (ever since Ryan Shazier’s life threatening injury they have been searching for the right replacement), parting ways with Jon Bostic and LJ Fort. First round draft pick Devin Bush will be the man of the future at MLB, but Mark Barron and JT Jones will provide depth in the meantime. The Steelers aren’t known for free agent signings, but they made a few others. Donte Moncrief and Johnny Holton will join Juju, James Washington, Ryan Switzer, and Eli Rogers in the receiving corps (rookie Diontae Johnson might have a shot to break through this group and gain some playing time). Perhaps the biggest addition will be cornerback Steven Nelson though, who had a career year in Kansas City last season as Pittsburgh attempts to solidify a weak secondary. Third round draft pick Justin Layne may also help in this regard.

B-... the Steelers have certainly lost depth and starpower going into 2019, but I honestly think they could be about the same without both. The problem is, they weren't a playoff team last year, they needed a boost. Their defense (which actually added youth) will likely still be unimpressive and unable to perform against the top teams, and the offense should mostly work the backfield behind Conner, Jaylen Samuels, and a sturdy offensive line that remains largely intact. Big Ben’s clock is ticking, I’m disappointed that the Steelers weren’t willing to spend any money to improve the D or give him one more target to look at.

Second year Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson celebrates a touchdown. Photo Credit: Cleveland.com

Baltimore had one of the more interesting offseasons of any team. A transformation is happening in Maryland, and John Harbaugh’s squad is starting to look more like his brother’s 2012 Super Bowl runner up San Francisco 49’ers (John and the Ravens won that game by the way). I’m not sure if this was always the plan when incumbent GM Eric DeCosta took over for Ozzie Newsome, or if he adapted to the situation, but either way we’re here now. The offense is solely committed to moving the ball on the ground with run-first quarterback Lamar Jackson and friends. We’ve seen this strategy before… Kaepernick in SF (as I just mentioned), Michael Vick in Atlanta years ago, RGIII in Washington, the list goes on. This style doesn’t work in the NFL. Sure, these teams have had mild success in the regular season, and Kaep even made the Super Bowl (though people forget they had a top defense and one of the best blocking offensive lines I can remember in my lifetime), but for the most part they are unsustainable. There are a few reasons why; one, the quarterback is a high risk for injury (they’ll be taking plenty of hits playing this way)... two, you need a dual threat QB (the ones who can’t hit the side of a barn with passes and run majority of time are too predictable to plan against in the playoffs when teams have ample time to scout the opponent)... three, it’s a passing league as much as I hate to admit it (if you go with the ground and pound, you better have a top defense and the best blocking money can buy if you want to go far). The Ravens seem to understand this model at least, they’ve mobilized a heavy unit of blockers from their O-line to their tight ends and have always prided themselves on defense, but the holes are still glaring. The obvious one is Lamar, I don’t see him as a dual threat NFL QB, the Ravens do. In the playoffs last year, the San Diego Chargers (who Brady made look like a high school defense the following week) knew Jackson’s every move and proved how simple it is to stop this offense when prepping for it. Beyond that and the injury gamble, I feel they have taken key losses this offseason that were detrimental for this plan to work.

Let’s start with the more obvious, Flacco had to go, and go he did. The former Super Bowl MVP was traded to the Broncos for a fourth round draft pick. The mighty have fallen huh? But don’t worry Flacco, the Giants probably would have gotten less for Eli. Other players clearly packing their bags were Michael Crabtree and John Brown. One thing about wide receivers is they generally enjoy when they are thrown the football, these two weren’t thrown the football much once Lamar took over, and the Ravens made it known passing would only decrease from here. Maxx Williams (who never really panned out) left a crowded tight end room, and running backs Javorius ‘Buck’ Allen and Ty Montgomery won’t be suiting up in purple this season either. Joining Baltimore on O is power runner Mark Ingram (graduating to a well-deserved starting role), rookie speedster Marquis Brown (compared to Tyreek Hill by some out of the draft), and journeyman receivers Michael Floyd and Seth Roberts (just looking for jobs). The offensive transactions make sense to me. Love the Ingram pickup, M. Brown could stretch the field for the run game, Flacco was an expensive distraction, all good moves. The defense is where I scratch my head. Without a top D, this strategy doesn’t work, I just can’t see it. The Ravens D won’t be bad, their secondary is still one of the best in the NFL on paper with Marlon Humphrey, Jimmy Smith, Brandon Carr, Tavon Young, Tony Jefferson, and new addition Earl Thomas to take over for Eric Weddle (an improvement, not because of Weddle, because Thomas is that good). Cornerback Justin Bethel will also join that group, but may have to fight for playing time. The problems are up the middle for Baltimore. It all starts with losing defensive captain CJ Mosley. Did the Jets overpay for Mosley? Yes. Should the Ravens have matched their offer? Probably not. Even so, the effort to find a quality successor hasn’t been there. Top candidates are Kenny Young (40 solo tackles as a rookie in 2018), Patrick Onwuasor (three years of average LB play with Mosley), Shane Ray (signed recently, more of an outside backer), and other unproven back-ups. Unless someone steps up, this could be a problem. Losing edge rushers Za'Darius Smith and Terrell Suggs in free agency is less crucial, with depth and veteran Pernell McPhee waiting to take over. The D-line will likely be made up of Brandon Williams, Michael Pierce, Chris Wormley, Willie Henry, and later round rookies with Brent Urban as another departure. These players have displayed seesaw type success for the team in recent years, and could be worse without Mosley backing them up.

Offseason Grades: C+... this was a tough one, but these grades aren’t how good I think a team will be in 2019 (I think the Ravens will still be a playoff contender), these grades are specifically judging what the team has done in the last couple months to make themselves better. I may be wrong on this but I’m not a fan of the direction DeCosta and management have chosen to go, I don’t trust the run-first QB system because it generally fails. I also think the defense lost a lot of its leadership in Mosley, Suggs, Urban and Weddle. Despite having a lock down secondary, the unit should be weaker against the run, and possibly less organized/intelligent.

Cincinnati Bengals fans cheering on their team. Photo Credit: UPI

They say Cincinnati is the new Cleveland, or maybe I just made that up right now? The Bengals are acting like it at least with a very uninspiring offseason to follow up a couple years of boring regular season play. To me, they had a million problems to correct going into this year, and they elected to solve none of them… well maybe one. I’ll start with Andy Dalton, because QB is always the first place you look on a football team. He’s not the answer, he’s just not, and if the Bengals haven’t realized that yet (even after the years where the team was deep enough to win the division, but couldn’t compete in the playoffs) then someone needs to get fired. Maybe the problem is that like in Dallas, the owner Mike Brown is also the general manager. Mike... you owe it to yourself to show yourself the door. The truth hurts sometimes, and it isn’t just because of Dalton.

This offseason you have hired a coach (Zac Taylor) with pretty much no resume, other than the fact that he sat in the same room as Sean McVay, and probably lost a few games of Madden to Seany-Boy at some point or another along the way (can’t you picture McVay as a gamer that goes a little too hard on the sticks?). Anyways, he then resigned LB Preston Brown, CB Darqueze Dennard, and RT Bobby Hart (okay… money seemed kind of wasted on sub-par performers here). He also brought back Tyler Eifert, a receiving tight end who was once viewed on the same sort of level of a Zach Ertz or George Kittle in the present day, only injuries have completely derailed his career (more wasted money). I think I saw Eifert more at March Madness cheering for his brother than I saw him in a Bengals uniform in 2018. I like the Jonah Williams pick in the middle of round one (left tackle out of Alabama, something they really needed no matter where he ends up on an NFL line), but then drafting another tight end (Drew Sample) with their next pick seemed short sighted, especially since he’s scouted as a blocker and they also resigned CJ Uzomah what felt like minutes before! There were a lot of positions they needed more, that’s the bottom line. Germaine Pratt (linebacker out of NC State) and Ryan Finley (low end QB also out of NC State) were notable draft picks after that… and we found out that Mike Brown spent a lot of time scouting NC State. Hey, at least he scouted somewhere right? Departures weren’t too hard on Cincinnati (not that they had much to lose)... oft-suspended linebacker Vontaze Burfict (good riddance), D-end Michael Johnson, tight end Tyler Kroft (oh so that’s why they drafted Sample), and tackle Cedric Ogbuehi (bust) were among them. They signed even less free agents than they lost, adding guard John Miller, defensive lineman Kerry Wynn, and secondary help with BW Webb. None of these players exactly jump off the page. This team is going nowhere this season, and the move they haven’t made but need to make is trading AJ Green. Get something for him and any other veteran pieces you may see value for.

Offseason Grades: F… I could have done better, I’m pretty sure you could have done better, and it’s possible my dog could have done better. If I was a Bengals fan I would not pay money on tickets this season. WHO DEY? Right now, nobody cares.

Here’s my predictions. This division will be a dog fight again this year, like it generally is… but which team owns the dawg pound now? That’s right, for the first time in the history of the AFC North, the Cleveland Browns will be champion. I see Pittsburgh and Baltimore both around .500, either just making the playoffs or just missing them, but I could also see the continuation of the Steel City implosion. If that happens, Mike Tomlin may finally be a free agent. Cincy will finish last in the division for the second straight season, shocker.