NFL Offseason Grades: AFC West... Riding the Waves

The AFC West (formerly AFL West) has been in creation since 1960. Although teams have relocated and the fifth team has since been bounced, four franchises have withstood the 58 year span. Over the course of this Western history, there has been an ebb and flow to this group that has been uncommonly rhythmic, each organization touting its different regimes of dominant play. The Broncos, Raiders, and Chargers franchises have each won the division 15 times, while the Chiefs have won 11. In terms of playoff berths, the Chiefs trail the Broncos and Raiders (22) by one with 21, while the Chargers pull up the rear with 19. The Broncos and Raiders have each won three Superbowls (Raiders add one AFL Championship to lead with four total), while the Chiefs have won one Superbowl and one Championship. The Chargers have yet to win a Superbowl, but have won an AFL Championship. Recently, the tides have been even more pronounced as each franchise has had their run of divisional success. Whether it was the Oakland Raiders winning it from 2000-'02 (culminating in a Superbowl loss), the San Diego Chargers (now LA) with five out of six from '04 to '09, or the Denver Broncos with five straight and two Superbowl appearances (one ring) from '11 to '15. Since the Broncos Superbowl win and Peyton Manning's retirement ceremony, the tide has turned once again to the franchise I've yet to mention. Like clockwork, it was Kansas City's turn, and Chiefs Nation has risen alongside their team.

Chiefs MVP QB Patrick Mahomes throws his famous no-look pass by Michael Pierce and the Ravens defense. Photo Credit: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have had continued success since future Hall of Fame NFL head coach Andy Reid took charge in 2013, but the playoff success has been lacking (something commonly criticized throughout Reid's career). They have only missed the postseason once in that time period (2014), and were a consistent wildcard during the Broncos reign. The last three seasons however, it has been the Chiefs that govern the West. With an expertly maneuvered transition from steady starting quarterback, Alex Smith, to rookie sensation, Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have managed to do something many teams are unable to accomplish in this league. They have a chance at extending their wave of dominance in the division. Obviously New England has famously done this better than anyone, but even the Pats have done it under the same QB all these years. It is extremely challenging to change quarterbacks from veteran to youth, while never relinquishing the crown in the process. Last year, KC did this, although the LA Chargers gave them a run for their money. Credit new GM Brett Veach for making the move... *cough cough* Reid's latest figurehead.

Since the Mahomes era has begun, player conduct problems have followed the team, but the dynamic QB has helped his team overcome any adversities or shortcomings, sometimes putting up points at will in collegiate style scorelines. First it was Kareem Hunt (a promising young running back who set the rookie record for total yards his first year in the league) who was released midway through his second NFL season due to a domestic violence dispute. Hunt is currently facing suspension, but was quickly snatched up by a Browns team with a lower code of ethics (one would have to figure). Only a number of months later it's Tyreek Hill (the trailblazing wide receiver who has lit up the NFL scene) who faces similar charges, instead beating his child rather than a significant other. The Chiefs have been slower to cut Hill, almost assuredly realizing he too would be immediately signed by a competitor, but the off-field issues have brought dark clouds filled with drama and massive losses of talent. Damien Williams has taken up Hunt's role without too much of a downgrade, but Hill will not be so easily replaced with his track-star speed, ankle-breaking cuts/routes, clutch hands, and tracking ability paired with Mahomes cannon arm. Draft pick Mecole Hardman has been reported as a possible Hill stand-in, but those are huge shoes to fill. The other changes on offense are cogs in the Reid system. Carlos Hyde replaces Spencer Ware as a backup RB, Neal Sterling will take over for Demetrius Harris as an extra receiving tight end behind Kelce, WR Chris Conley has officially left while Kelvin Benjamin and De'Anthony Thomas remain unsigned (maybe one would return following a Hill suspension). Center Mitch Morse is also lost in free agency, as well as depth O-Line Jordan Devey. Austin Reiter is slated to compete with rookie Nick Allegretti for Morse's spot. The rest of the line remains intact. The other huge news around KC this year is the defensive switch from 3-4 to 4-3 under new DC Steve Spagnuolo (formerly of the Giants, Rams, and Saints among others). As I've said in the past, any time a defense switches schemes, there are going to be a plethora of personnel changes. The first one here was shipping star edge rusher, Dee Ford, to the Niners. They also let his veteran counterpart, Justin Houston, walk to Indy. Both were accounted for in spades with D-ends Frank Clark (trade, from Seattle), Alex Okafor, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Jerry Attaochu. Clark was given a monster deal after acquisition, and should be a Chief for a long time. Darron Lee and Damien Wilson were also added as linebackers that could fit better in 4-3 roles. In the secondary, the cornerback position gets even weaker losing Steven Nelson after a breakout year, and filling the hole with journeyman Bashaud Breeland. Safety gets younger however, upgrading the aging Eric Berry (released) and backup Eric Murray with hot commodity Tyrann Mathieu and rookie Juan Thornhill.

Offseason Grade: C-... there are a lot of concerns here, first and foremost Tyreek Hill. If he misses a good chunk of time or worst case scenario, gets released like Hunt, this offense is lacking weapons in a big way. People have been hyping Sammy Watkins all Spring but I don't buy it, the guy has been an under-performer his whole career when thrust into the #1 receiver role. He's a decent #2, but no Hill. I actually like the switch from 3-4, and think they made some really solid additions to help with the transition, but the first year of a drastic change like this is always a little rough around the edges. That D-line of Chris Jones, Clark, Okafor, and Derrick Nnadi could be something fierce though! Lastly, the secondary still concerns me. They improve at safety but Kendall Fuller is the only corner worth jack on this roster. Mahomes is going to have to put up absurd numbers again if the Chiefs want to compete for a ring, and with stars dropping left and right, a one-man circus could be a not-too-distant future for Patrick. One thing I will say, he better stay healthy, or the Chiefs are a dead duck.

Future Hall of Fame quarterback of the Chargers, Phillip Rivers. Photo Credit: USA Today

SAAAN DIEGO, SUUU-PER CHARGERS! It's unfortunate that song is no longer sung. The move to Los Angeles made sense from a money standpoint, but not much else, and it's also unfortunate for the great fans of beautiful and classy San Diego (home of Ron Burgundy). That's just the way of the world though, money talks and teams walk. Anyhow, the remodeled LA Chargers first two seasons have posted plus .500 records and a wildcard berth (and playoff win) in 2018, becoming known as road warriors rather than Hollywood idols with more away wins than home. Maybe Phillip Rivers is pissed he had to uproot his nine kids, didn't think of that did you Dean Spanos (owner)? Any way you slice it though, this roster is loaded with talent and has found a possible hidden gem in head coach Anthony Lynn, a former running backs coach who has taken on the job with little difficulty in his first two seasons. If anyone is ending the Chiefs recent run and once again riding the next ebb and flow of the AFC West, it's the Chargers (barring something shocking). I picked them to win the West last season, not realizing the level of greatness that is Patrick Mahomes, but they only fell short via tiebreak and this year will be a brand new opportunity. Players like Hunter Henry and Joey Bosa are healthy, a young hungry defense gains more experience (and should be looking to prove a point after the Patriots embarrassed them in last year's Divisional Round), and Rivers has to realize he only has so many more chances at a Superbowl. This wave will likely be his last... surfs up dude!

LAC was relatively quiet this offseason, more quiet than I would of liked for a team on the brink. Their losses weren't detrimental, but their gains were almost non-existent. We'll begin with the outs. Tyrell Williams goes across division and state to Oakland, making Mike Williams the clear #2 behind Keenan Allen, but not much after that. On defense, surprising DT Darius Philon played himself into a solid contract in Arizona, but the Chargers actually upgraded here in the draft taking Jerry Tillery in the first round. He was a beast at the heart of the Notre Dame D-line. Corey Liuget will not be returning either, so Brandon Mebane and the rookie should start up the gut of the 4-3 spread. With Bosa and Ingram on the edges, this still has the makings of an in-your-face line, just not against Tom Brady. Jason Verrett moves on from the team as well, but it's no real loss being that the former consistent corner hasn't played in years. An impressive young secondary includes Desmond King, Trevor Williams, Derwin James, rookie safety Nasir Adderley, and of course Casey Hayward (now the veteran of the group). Jahleel Addae also leaves, but this team has safety depth for weeks, so another loss without loss. It was a little odd to see outside linebacker Kyle Emanuel retire (another younger man calling it quits, a common theme of the modern NFL with all the controversy on head injuries), but with the experienced and intelligent Thomas Davis taking over his position, I see this as a win for LA. One final addition was the signing of Tyrod Taylor to backup Rivers. I like this move behind an older QB. Rivers is known for his durability, but with windows of opportunity growing more and more narrow in the NFL, why not play it safe at the QB position?

Offseason Grade: B-... GM Tom Telesco could of done more, that's obvious to me, but this team barely lost anything noteworthy after a 12-4 season, which doesn't usually happen. They also got healthier, younger in some places, and more experienced in others in the meantime. The Chargers will hope to build on their momentum from 2018, making them a definite contender this year.

WR Antonio Brown holds up his famous #84 jersey in black and silver (rather than yellow). He stands beside head coach Jon Gruden (left) and GM Mike Mayock (right). Photo Credit: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

The Oakland Raiders are poised to be one of the most anticipated teams of 2019. It's no surprise they were selected to be the focus of this year's edition of HBO's Hard Knocks series. With basically full control and huge personality head coach Jon Gruden... and his new GM Mike Mayock... calling the shots, this team has completely turned over one year to the next not once, but twice now since Gruden's takeover. Majority of his risks and transactions before 2018 are gone already, and Gruden's large-scale demolition project has entered phase two. Granted phase two looks more like a, hey let's do-over phase one but better this time, but still we'll call it phase two. The biggest overhaul this season was in the wide receiver room. That obviously starts and ends with Antonio Brown, known for his dynamic route running and impeccable catching ability in Pittsburgh, but also his ego in the locker room. AB was ran out of the Steel City after drama with Big Ben and co., so we'll have to monitor how things go with Gruden and Carr (who have already had their own beefs at times). You have to like the trade from a Raiders perspective though, I mean they got Brown for nothing, and he is a rare talent even if he's no Spring chicken. With Brown's ability to hold grudges rare in itself, I expect him to have a big season, if only to shove it up the Steelers you know where. Juju who? I think it went something like that...

Aside from AB, the Raiders also bring in the aforementioned Tyrell Williams (a good Jordy Nelson style replacement but younger, Nelson retired), Ryan Grant, JJ Nelson, and former Jet/AAF standout Jalin Marshall to fill in an almost completely new WR ranks. Seth Roberts was a departing figure in the shuffle. The offensive shake ups didn't stop there however, it was all across the board. Derek Carr will remain as the starting quarterback, but would-be replacements Mike Glennon and Nate Peterman (less likely) wait in the wings. With speculation that Gruden would absolutely draft Kyler Murray had he fallen to the Raiders, the relationship with Carr must be anything but peachy. The backfield was next, Isaiah Crowell was signed, pretty much putting the final nail in Marshawn Lynch's career (back into retirement). Doug Martin looked set to be axed as well, then Crowell tears his Achilles, so they give Dougie a call back after all. Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, and Chris Warren remain in the mix, but in the end it will be rookie running back Josh Jacobs who starts behind Carr. At tight end, Jared Cook and Lee Smith depart and Luke Willson joins Raider Nation. Cook has to be seen as a loss for Oakland, he had great chemistry with Carr last season. Finally, management trades away Kelechi Osemele (a recent pro bowl guard) and cuts the washed up Donald Penn (LT). They replace the two with tackle Trent Brown (banking off his success in New England) and momentarily blacklisted guard Richie Incognito who is back from dead, figuratively speaking. Incognito will likely be another focus point of Hard Knocks, since he was a locker room wildfire waiting to happen throughout his career, and I'm not talking about the kind that sparks victories. Despite his many controversies, he was also a top talent at his position in his prime, it will be interesting to see what he has left in the tank. Jordan Devey was also brought in at guard in case he falters, and Kolton Miller will enter year two at the tackle position after an uninspiring rookie campaign. The defense was also poor under Gruden's first full season. Besides rookie DT Maurice Hurst looking like a nice sleeper from the draft and former picks Gareon Conley, Marquel Lee, and Karl Joseph taking positive steps, there wasn't much to talk about. Gruden loves his veteran free agents (one thing we've learned from his time with Oakland so far), and this year he supplements his D with DE's Benson Mayowa and Josh Mauro, LB's Brandon Marshall and Vontaze Burfict, and secondary Nevin Lawson and Lamarcus Joyner (Rashaan Melvin out). Edge rusher Clellin Ferrell (possibly over-drafted), corner Trayvon Mullen, and safety Jonathan Abram were among Oakland's many top picks in this year's draft. Gruden and Mayock better hit on these guys, this defense has too many holes to fill.

Offseason Grades: B-... I'm back and forth on the Raiders. In once sense, I actually give Gruden credit for realizing a lot of his bad moves in year one and blowing it up again in year two. They had a ton of high draft picks, so you have to think at least a couple of them will hit, but some of these picks were considered unconventional reaches and selections outside of NEED areas. I thought most of the offensive moves were positive, even if this team has some recipes for off-the-field disaster brewing. My main criticism is that Gruden continues to target these washed up vets like Whitehead and Jordy last year, and now possibly Burfict, Marshall, and Incognito in '19. Also, with a logjam at safety and plenty of youth, why spend big money on Joyner? That didn't make sense to me. Will a couple of the six or seven safeties on the roster switch to corner or hybrid linebacker positions, where the team has much less depth? Also in question, will Carr and Gruden's relationship hold up? Will all these huge personalities care more about the spotlight of Hard Knocks than a winning season? And finally, will more chaos ensue in Oakland's final season (most likely moving to Vegas in 2020), or progress? I feel like I'm writing a teaser for a TV sitcom... oh wait.

The Broncos' day 2 draft picks. GM John Elway, Dalton Risner, Drew Lock, Dre’Mont Jones, and new head coach Vic Fangio (left to right). Noah Fant (selected day 1) is not included in this picture. Photo Credit: The Denver Post

The Denver Broncos are still a team in rebuild off their recent Superbowl run. The only problem is that part-owner/general manager John Elway has seemed too stubborn to admit it in recent years. He's tried to force it with different QB's that weren't up to snuff, and the results have been mostly horrid. Having said that, the moves this offseason have been generally positive and mostly look towards the future, aside from trading for placeholder quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco replaces bust free agent signing Case Keenum, another failure in Elway's quest to find the next Manning (so to speak) in Denver. Paxton Lynch, a failed QB draft pick, was finally let go and enter Drew Lock, the next man who will be groomed with an eye towards the franchise status. The quarterback position has been Elway's kryptonite since 2015, ironic being that he himself is a hall of famer at the position, and he'll hope that the former Superbowl MVP Flacco brings stability and poise (if nothing else), while Lock takes notes on the sideline.

The main focus for Denver in recent years has been offensive line. I commend Elway for this, I've always believed the offensive unit starts up front. There are outliers but the best teams are usually solid in this department and the Superbowl champs generally have one of the best lines in the NFL. I always bring up the Patriots because they're currently the highest standard of excellence to model a team after... Brady has rarely had a low-end offensive line his entire career, and that's no coincidence, the New England brass has made that a cornerstone of their dynasty. The Broncos line has been quite the opposite since their wave of success, so they have tried to correct that. In 2017, Garett Boles was drafted in the first round to be the new starting left tackle. Left guard Ronald Leary was acquired from the Cowboys. This year Elway spent BIG money on Ja'Wuan James, right tackle for the Dolphins the last few seasons. Some say he overspent on James, but hey, it's still an improvement on what was there in '18, and decent linemen are scarce nowadays. He replaces over-the-hill Jared Veldheer (T) who then decided to retire after briefly signing in New England. Cutting Veldheer and guard Max Garcia shed some cap anyway, and since they lost out on center Matt Paradis and RG Billy Turner to larger offers, I thought the James signing was fine so long as he remains the starter for the foreseeable future. Connor McGovern (drafted in '16) and Sam Jones (drafted in '18) will likely compete to fill the void left by the veteran Paradis (this is the only key downgrade on the line going into 2019). I partially say that because I believe second rounder Dalton Risner will be very capable handling Turner's role at right guard (and cheaper with a rookie deal). This young unit is coming together, and it'll have to if the run-first Broncos want to become a contender again (especially since Flacco has almost zero mobility at this point in his career). When Joe does throw the ball, look for rookie first round tight end Noah Fant to be the recipient early and often. The rest of the moves were similar to the O-line... Elway seemed confident letting more expensive players walk in favor of youth. Brandon Marshall (injury battered MLB), Tramaine Brock and Jamar Taylor (journeyman CB's), Matt LaCosse (ineffective TE), Shaq Barrett (talented edge rusher but no spot for him on a team with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb), and Jordan Taylor (replaceable slot-man) were among the departures. The only hard-to-replace loss was corner Bradley Roby, but by poaching the skilled nickelback, Bryce Callahan, from Chicago and bringing over vet Kareem Jackson from Houston, you can't say Elway wasn't thorough in trying. Third round DT Dre'Mont Jones will also have a chance to force his way on field in camp, as many spots seem up for grab in Denver. Oh and by the way, highly touted Bears D-coordinator Vic Fangio gets his first shot at being a head coach. Interesting that as everyone else hired offensive minds in 2019, Elway went defensive, the GM knows where his team's strength lies.

Offseason Grade: B+... the direction is clear; get younger, continue to cut loose overpriced pieces from the Superbowl roster of 2015, find a new franchise QB, build around the line and the skilled players that are there. Lindsay and Freeman could be a great backfield duo again this year. Chubb is learning from Von Miller, and there's no reason he cannot provide a similar impact. Sutton has shown he can develop into a starting NFL wide receiver. Younger safeties are paired with veteran corners in the secondary. We talked about the O-line already in detail. The two problem areas I see are middle linebacker (which will ask Todd Davis and second year players Josey Jewell or Keishawn Bierria to step up) and wide receiver depth (there's very little consistency behind Sanders and Sutton). These are easier fixes though, and I don't think it'll be too long before Orange Crush is back in the conversation.

The AFC West will be another hard-fought struggle in 2019. I feel like a lot of the AFC is very balanced heading into the new season, with the North and South looking competitive as well as a couple up-and-comers in the East. The only West franchise that I could see being a disaster in '19 is the Raiders (if things just don't gel together well), but I could also see them being a pleasant surprise. If anything happens to Mahomes (Madden curse?) on top of Hill's impending suspension, the Chiefs will be worst in the West, I really don't think their team is great outside of him and a few other players. With Mahomes however, the Chiefs will compete for the division and the playoffs (that's how incredible he is), but this year I think the Chargers do beat them out and end their run (at least for the moment). Denver and Oakland should both finish around .500, but I don't think either is ready for a playoff run this season. Southern California isn't known for its rain, but this football season it'll be known for its lightning, Bolts reign supreme.