NFL Offseason Grades: AFC South... Place Your Bets
- iAmMizz!
- Jun 7, 2019
- 14 min read
Updated: Dec 14, 2019
This division is WIDE OPEN this season. In fact I think it is the most even division in the NFL going into 2019, the NFC North being a close second. These teams each had key deficiencies last year, no question, and what I loved about watching them in the offseason is that they each assessed their biggest weakness and tried to eliminate it. I mean that's what your supposed to do right? Well if you want to be a successful franchise that is, you assess and acquire. All that's left after that is the execution, something these teams have struggled with too.
The two 'South' divisions are the youngest in the NFL. Although the Colts and Titans franchises go back to the 50's and 60's for the AFC teams, the Jaguars and Texans are among the newer clubs, the Jags joining in '95 and the Texans coming along with the division in 2002. Because of this, and a failure to learn consistency, the AFC South is not home to many champions. Aside from the Indianapolis Colts (who have gone two for four in franchise Superbowls and have three NFL Championships before the merger), none of these teams have won much of anything. The Jaguars and Texans have more cause for excuse with the amount of years they have been a part of the league, but for the Titans/Oilers franchise it's downright embarrassing (more on that below). This year I honestly think any of the four have a legitimate shot to make the postseason, but can any of the four win it?
Since 2002, it has mostly been the Colts setting the tempo. They have won the division nine times (most under the Peyton Manning era, and a couple with Andrew Luck) and made the playoffs 12 times (two AFC titles, one Superbowl). They operate with a mindset of: cool, calm, collected. Chris Ballard exemplifies that in his style as a general manager. Despite opening up more available cap space than any team in the league, Ballard was in no rush to spend it like a NY Jets this year or Philadelphia Eagles a few years back (did work out for them). He appears confident in what he has, and doesn't feel blowing money on free agents will necessarily help push them over the top. Whether or not this is the right course of action is debatable, but the track record speaks for itself. The only down years the Colts have ever had in recent memory were the ones where Luck was injured (and the lone season between Manning and Luck), meaning they are either good at putting winning teams around their QBs... or they win because of the QBs. It's the old Brady-Belichicken and the egg convo again, which I'll avoid, but I do feel this current roster stacks up better than the one supplementing Luck during the first half of his career.
The concerns for the Colts going back about two years were always... can Luck stay healthy, can his O-line actually block and not allow opposing defenses to play Hungry Hungry Hippo with his body, and is the defense good enough to make big stops in big moments? Going into 2019, most of these concerns are no longer an issue. The O-line has transformed into one of the best in the game after a huge shift in draft emphasis. Anthony Castonzo (now veteran left tackle) was the first, and since then we've seen center Ryan Kelly, tackles like Joe Haeg and Denzelle Good, offensive ROY-runner up in 2018 Quenton Nelson (guard), fellow rookie Braden Smith, and more. Aside from Good, who left for Oakland, this line remains entirely intact. This all helps Luck stay on the field. The defense was also better in 2018 with players like defensive ROY linebacker Darius Leonard and cornerback Pierre Desir stepping up (but I feel this was still their main focus area this offseason). Head coach Frank Reich was even a major success in his first season. All is right again in Indy. To the moves... first big one was NOT signing Le'Veon Bell. The one team that could easily outbid the Jets in both price-tag and chance of a Superbowl balked at Bell, realizing they had more than enough in Marlon Mack. I 100% agree with this decision, although Bell probably could have been something special teamed with Luck and this crew of blockers. Then they brought back Desir (kind of had to with how well he excelled in this system). For the focus area on D, especially the linebacker/edge department, Ballard signed veteran cast off Justin Houston (a physical pass rusher even at his age of 30) and drafted rookie Ben Banogu out of TCU. Darius Leonard was a similar type draft pick last year, so I'll be keeping an eye on Banogu learning from Houston. With their top draft pick they added a corner prospect, Rock Ya-Sin, a Temple star and possible starter alongside Desir. Nate Hairston, Kenny Moore, and Quincy Wilson will also compete. They got younger in safety depth replacing Mike Mitchell and JJ Wilcox with Derrick Kindred and Isaiah Johnson (fliers), but the starters will still be Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers (this is how you shed cap by the way). However, they lost some strength up the gut of the D-line, with Hassan Ridgeway and Al Woods leaving. The Colts have yet to address this so I'm assuming Margus Hunt and Denico Autry will help Grover Stewart by moving inside on the 4-3. The offensive changes for the Colts are always scarce, but sometimes less is more. Last year Eric Ebron was a massive signing, but at the time it didn't make too many headlines. This year Ballard hopes to catch lightning in a bottle again with Devin Funchess on a one year deal (Dontrelle Inman out) and Spencer Ware as a low-risk move. Second round draft pick Parris Campbell (WR) will be a player to watch next to TY Hilton. The two speedster playmakers scream DANGER for opposing secondaries.
Offseason Grades: B+... similar to last year, Ballard makes slight tweaks to the already well-oiled machine he has built. He didn't take any huge chances, which keeps this from being an A, but I feel like it could go down as another sneaky-productive offseason when all is said and done.
Houston's new team has impressed at times, taking five division titles in its short tenure (including 2018's AFC South honors), but they have had little to no playoff joy getting bumped in either the first or second round each year they've made it. Last year they got smoked by the rival Colts at home in the Wildcard Round, it was a brutal way to go, and Texans fans will hope the bitter taste acts as a motivator going into this year. The main issue for long-term coach, Bill O'Brien, and this Houston franchise has been the quarterback position over the years. They have had impressive defenses most seasons and some top talent skill positions players at times, but the man throwing the rock has generally been anything but those things. From one journeyman to another (Matt Schaub, TJ Yates, Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, Brock Osweiler, etc.) and one bust draft pick to the next (David Carr, Brandon Weeden, Ryan Mallet), this coaching staff shook their heads at the ineptitude at the position. There were seasons where they literally tried anything, Browns style, until Deshaun. Watson was drafted in the first round by Houston in 2017, after dropping slightly in the draft due to injury history and play-style. When on the field, he has not disappointed, proving to be a winner and a gamer in the way he plays football. He did miss time because of an ACL tear during the second half of his rookie season though, which has to leave a sour tinge of doubt with the fan-base. Can they really rely on Watson as a franchise guy? That question still remains.
The other question heading into '19 was an aging secondary. With Tyrann Mathieu immediately moving on after one season in red, white and blue, the hole grew. I like what newer GM Brian Gaine did to fill it though, letting CB Kareem Jackson walk (graded well last year but has been declining prior to the renaissance) and adding fresher legs. Bradley Roby is the splash signing, while I like Briean Boddy-Calhoun and Jahleel Addae as value moves (versatile players who can move around the secondary, Addae can even play a hybrid linebacker role). Tash Gipson will be the starter who replaces the Honeybadger, a downgrade for sure. The Texans also spend a draft pick on corner Lonnie Johnson Jr in the second, who will fight out Aaron Colvin for a top three spot on the depth chart after Johnathan Joseph and Roby. Standout rookie strong safety, Justin Reid, will look to shine in year two. The linebackers look the same as Clowney was tagged, and Watt still captains the D from his spot on the line. Christian Covington's (an unaccounted for loss on D-line) spot across from Watt will be open for business. On the offensive side of the ball it was all O-line focus. They draft Tytus Howard, tackle from Alabama State, in the first round, and guard Max Sharping in the second. Free agent signing, Matt Kalil, will provide veteran depth at LT but probably won't factor in much. It's a start, but the Texans still need to improve much more on the line, especially with an injury-prone QB as the only thing standing between the current Houston team, and the abyss that came before it. OT Kendall Lahm, TE Ryan Griffin, loan WR Demaryius Thomas, and RB Alfred Blue won't be returning, while blocking TE Darren Fells joins Houston.
Offseason Grades: C+... I wish they added more offensive weapons around DeAndre Hopkins besides injury-prone Will Fuller and Keke Coutee. Lamar Miller and the tight end position as a whole could have been upgraded too. The target positions were clearly O-line and secondary for Houston, but did they really do enough to change the story of their franchise's history so far?
Jacksonville has made it a little further in the playoffs than Houston, losing an AFC Championship game to the Patriots in 2017 (as well as two others before 2002), but they have only won the division once and made the playoffs three times since joining the South. Like the Texans, quarterback has been a problem for them, they just haven't tried as many solutions. Blake Bortles has been the team's nonchalantly fearless leader the past five seasons, after the Jags selected him third overall in the 2014 NFL Draft. Needless to say, this was a bust of a selection that set the franchise back a ways, but the Bortles journey has finally come to an end in North Florida. Blake hops aboard a plane to Los Angeles and the Jaguars waste no time bringing in Superbowl MVP Nick Foles. When people ask me if I think this was a smart move or not, I find it tough to answer. I don't think Foles will be anything more than half as good playing QB with this Jags O-line in front of him (the Eagles line is in another world compared to the Jags), and his lack of mobility compared to Bortles could be troublesome. At the same time, Foles is a professional who can manage games, make accurate quick-release passes, and break down defenses. He is also known for his low turnover rate. These are all things that Bortles sucked at (plain and simple). I'm not sure how it will go, but this was the move Jacksonville had to make, with an otherwise talented roster being completely wasted in 2018. I guess jolly ol' St. Nick retires to Florida, just like the rest of us!
Now I talked about the poor O-line in 2018. This wasn't necessarily because of neglect, GM David Caldwell and puppet-master Tom Coughlin actually put a huge emphasis on this area the season prior, they just got decimated by injuries. High-paid LG Andrew Norwell went down, Jeremy Parnell couldn't stay healthy, Brandon Linder, Cam Robinson, the list goes on. Even backups were dropping like flies. When you have a third string O-line out there, the offense will never work, it just won't. I still don't think Bortles was THE GUY in Jacksonville, but his last season with the team shouldn't fall squarely on his shoulders. With Parnell and replacement Ereck Flowers getting the boot, the line (when healthy) should be: Robinson (LT), Norwell (LG), Linder (C), AJ Cann (RG), and then RT has options. 2019 draft pick Jawaan Taylor would be the favorite to take this job down the line, but you might see former Bengal Cedric Ogbuehi or 2018 pick Will Richardson get a chance there in the meantime. The Jags should have more depth at O-line going into 2019, now that's some forward thinking Tom. The Fournette trade rumors never amounted to much, but the rest of the RBs in the stable changed entirely. TJ Yeldon, Carlos Hyde, and Corey Grant were all left unsigned as Jacksonville elected to bring in new bodies with Alfred Blue and Benny Cunningham. I like Cunningham because he can play special teams and help in other ways, but overall I think this crew is worse than the one before it. Donte Moncrief also left, but with a ton of receivers (Chris Conley and Terrelle Pryor are new additions) and Marqise Lee set to return, I see no real loss here. Foles loved throwing to Jeffery in Philly, it'll be interesting to see if a favorite emerges between the three listed above, Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole, and DJ Chark. ASJ is also out at tight end after an abysmal performance (already cut by New England too), with a more well-rounded Geoff Swaim replacing him. They drafted TE Josh Oliver in the third round. The offense still has to prove to me that they can change, but the defense should be dominant as ever (as long as they aren't constantly on the field). While effort level seemed to decrease towards the end of last season, a clean slate may be just what the doctor ordered for smack-talking Jalen Ramsey and co. The departures were players that weren't really needed at deep positions (DT Malik Jackson, safeties Tash Gipson and Barry Church midway through 2018). Ronnie Harrison and Jarrod Wilson now start at safety, with Datone Jones added up the middle as a backup DT. The big changes come on linebacker/special teams, with Jake Ryan, Ramik Wilson, Najee Goode, and DJ Alexander all given a chance to win roles alongside Myles Jack. Telvin Smith will sit the season out for personal reasons (possibly the only key loss for the Jags this offseason). The X-factor will of course be top ten selection, Josh Allen, a do-it-all edge linebacker that I think will end up being the steal of the draft. He fits a 3-4 better than a 4-3, but the Jags couldn't pass on his talent after he shockingly fell to them in the first round. I can't wait to see how D-coordinator Todd Wash uses Allen, who I thought was comparable to Khalil Mack in college. Two straight defensive ROY's from the AFC South? In this low-scoring division built on teams with defensive prowess, it's almost a lock.
Offseason Grade: B... the changes were minor, never really affecting the core of this team (besides the additions of Foles and Allen). If the O-line gets healthy and these two have as big an impact as I feel they could, the Jaguars will be back in the postseason in 2019.
And then there was the Tennessee Titans. Nashville's team has been in this massive drought, on par with any other franchise in football. Really, it's more than a drought, the water has just completely dried up to the point where fans may wonder if it ever existed in the first place, or was just some desert mirage. Two AFL Championships in their first two seasons as a Houston franchise ('60 and '61), and then nothing since. They made the Superbowl in '99, but lost it to the Rams. They made the AFC Championship in '02, but lost that also. With two South division titles and five playoff berths, Music City USA is getting sick and tired of hearing the same old song over and over. To me, unlike these other three teams who need specific things whether O-line or quarterback or pass rush, the Titans don't need any one thing. On paper, they have an averagely solid football team most years at almost every single position, the one exception probably being wide receiver in 2018 (which they have improved). If they were an actor they'd be like Luke Wilson or Kyle Chandler, you like em and you always see them in stuff, but you also tend to forget their names. I'll prove it...
Starting with the D, the line is quite formidable, remember average doesn't mean bad. Guys like DaQuan Jones, Jurrell Casey, and new addition Brent Urban have been around this league a long time. They are just so forgettable though, I mean does the average football fan even know these guys? I should mention that their first round pick, Jeffery Simmons, is a talented DT with another plain and boring name. Ultra-consistent outside linebacker Brian Orakpo was known more for his Geico ad back in the day than his play (not to say he was ever an under-performer, he wasn't). He retired this offseason, but the Titans made a move to get Cameron Wake, who to me could be an Orakpo clone in terms of style of play and physical frame. Derrick Morgan is also out, but younger players like Harold Landry and Kamalei Correa should handle the opposite edge. Up the middle is Wesley Woodyard, known for his sturdy play. Either Jayon Brown or Rashaan Evans should claim the other middle linebacker spot. The secondary has ex-patriots Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, as well as homegrown Adoree Jackson. Besides the big play in the Superbowl against Seattle that made him famous, Butler has been an overpaid (average) corner most of his career. Ryan might actually be the better of the two, but I wouldn't say he's anything special either. Jackson isn't average, he adds playmaking ability and return skills (there has to be a couple guys that break the mold right?). At safety they should start Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccaro, could these two be anymore standard of a safety duo? I'm not making this stuff up. The running back is a truck-stick, no ball-skills, type rusher who reminds you of a guy from the 60's (Derrick Henry). Most of their offense last season involved Henry and this O-line trying to bully opponents, the play clock, and the audience's attention span all at once! Dion Lewis is the prototypical change of pace back, good on third downs and routes. Delanie Walker at tight end... I'm not even going to say it. At wide receiver, they desperately needed help behind Corey Davis so they drafted AJ Brown out of Ole Miss who was actually the #1 on the team over Metcalf (it's like they intentionally draft players with the most basic names they can find). Despite another basic name to go along with Davis, I actually think Brown has the makings of a really good NFL receiver. Adam Humphries will come in to play the role of typical white slot receiver, something they needed! The QB position cracks me up before I get to O-line, one of the few stars of this team. I have never been pro-Mariota, so I like the fact that they brought in someone to compete against him, but can you think of anyone more plain and appropriate for the Titans than Ryan Tannehill?... Alex Smith and Case Keenum were already on Washington, so I guess the choice was obvious. This offensive line is the rare above average, excelling piece on this team. It's what gives Mariota a shot most seasons. Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin on each end are studs, Ben Jones a more typical center. Kevin Pamphile and key free agent acquisition Rodger Saffold will take over the interior for Quinton Spain and Josh Kline.
Offseason Grade: B+... all jokes aside, I really credit what GM Jon Robinson and head coach Mike Vrabel have done here. In the NFL, staying average every year isn't easy to do, and I feel the Titans made some nice moves that could make them better, without losing much. I'm calling it now, Ryan Tannehill will take the team from Marcus Mariota, he's the better fit for Vrabel's system.
So, anyone ready to bet on which of these four takes the South? I'm not. I can't think of a division that has ever been more even-keeled in my lifetime. Unfortunately, injuries may end up being a determining factor, which you never hope to see. I'll say this. The Colts offense is the most well-rounded right now. The Jags should have the top defense, if their offense can move the ball. The Titans will grind out some slow and painful games, but win a good amount of them. I just have a feeling that this isn't the Texans' year. They have too many delicate players and too little depth behind them. In the end, I'll take the Colts by a hair with the Jaguars and Titans almost dead even for second. The Texans will fall back a few games. Last year, the Colts beat the Titans head to head for the wildcard in the final week with Houston only one game ahead... I wouldn't be surprised if it was just as narrow in 2019.
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