NFL Offseason Grades: NFC South... BOOM or BUST
- iAmMizz!
- Jul 9, 2019
- 16 min read
Updated: Dec 14, 2019
Is it just me or is this the division that generally shocks and surprises experts most seasons?... at least in the last 5-10 years. This is the same division where losing records follow Superbowl runs and MVP's come and go like thunderstorms in Florida. Some years Cam Newton's Panthers look like one of the best teams in football and he plays like an unstoppable juggernaut, other years they have trouble staying above .500 with similar rosters. Then there's the Falcons and Saints who are generally projected high out of camp because of their steady offensive units led by veteran coaches and QB's Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, but some seasons both defenses are just God-awful. I've seen the Bucs ranked as the dark horse many times only for them to have miserable campaigns. I've also seen the Bucs win a Superbowl during the NFC South's inaugural season (2002). The Saints won their championship in 2009 and the Panthers lost SB appearances in '03 and '15. The Falcons went to the dance most recently out of the four with a heartbreaking loss in 2016 after a surprise run, but one could argue that the Saints were cheated out of a Superbowl appearance last season (an obvious missed defensive pass interference call prevented the Saints from winning in regulation, handing the Rams their chance at a championship). All I know is most years all four have promise going in, but while one or two breakout, the other two or three tend to be disappointments. There was also that one season in 2014 where all four had losing records! (Panthers took the division at 7-8-1). Since '02, here's how the total numbers breakdown: (Division Titles) Saints and Panthers with five, Falcons with four, Buccaneers with three... (Playoff Berths) Falcons with eight, Saints and Panthers even again at seven, and the Buccaneers stuck at three with no wildcards in that time period. There have been 10 seasons out of 17 where only one team has come out of the South with zero wildcards, and only one season where both NFC wildcards have come out of the division. So all this begs the question... with all four teams in WIN NOW mode as we approach 2019 (Bucs may have a new coaching staff but it is a coaching staff that expects to win wherever they go), who's bringing the boom?... and who are this year's busts?
New Orleans are the team to beat out of the gate in the Summer of 2019, they have won the division the last two seasons and still have the Sean Payton-Drew Brees combo leading the charge that just missed a second SB in '18. Not too much changes this offseason for GM Mickey Loomis and this roster... which is normally a good thing for a team that is on the doorstep (but you never know in this division). So I'll think about this group of teams differently, I'll ask myself, 'what could go wrong?' Well there's always the obvious with an older quarterback, Brees could take a big hit and get injured. The Saints have had a top O-line protecting the hall of famer most years under Payton, but a crucial player will be missing in '19, first-rate center Max Unger has retired after his tenth NFL season. Loomis clearly understood that replacing Unger quickly was a top priority, he spent his first 2019 draft pick (round two) on Erik McCoy, a center with large aspirations out of Texas A&M. Nick Easton was also added through free agency in case McCoy isn't ready, as well as guard Ryan Groy and tackle Marshall Newhouse... veteran backups. The Black and Gold should be weakest up the gut this season as the new center will accompany Andrus Peat and Larry Warford (both average to low grades at guard), but the bookends at tackle are as impressive as any team in the league with Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. In a worse case scenario, you could do a lot worse than Teddy Bridgewater as your backup QB. Other than a Brees mishap, I don't see many issues with this offense this season, although the new Michael Thomas contract will be a major expense next year and beyond if they choose to lock up the superstar wide out long term. For now, the receiving core brings in Rishard Matthews as a similar flier to Cam Meredith in '18 (hopefully this one works better for NOLA). This group is basically Thomas and friends (with guys like Ginn, Meredith, Kirkwood, Tre'Quan Smith, Carr, and now Matthews), so I don't see any way they can let him walk without deciding to completely rebuild. Mark Ingram does leave but he's adequately replaced by both Latavius Murray and Buck Allen as a mix of power and gadget in the backfield behind Kamara... should be fun to see what Payton has in store. Mike Burton joins the team to compete with Zach Line at fullback (funny that two of the best fullbacks in the entire league will compete for a job, showing how there are few teams that value the position), and maybe the best acquisition of all will end up being the dangerously savvy pass-catching tight end, Jared Cook, who takes over for a further over-the-hill Ben Watson. Brees to Cook could remind Saints fans of the Jimmy Graham glory days.
The main question with this team is usually on the defensive side of the ball. They'll stick with their classic 4-3 that fronts Cameron Jordan alongside Sheldon Rankins, David Onyemata, and first round 2018 draft pick Marcus Davenport. They pound on depth behind these four with Malcolm Brown (who could claim a starting job at DT), Sylvester Williams, Mario Edwards Jr, and Wes Horton. Tyeler Davison and Alex Okafor are casualties of this offseason, but again Loomis and Payton didn't lose much. Aside from that, the secondary is still the weakness. Kayvon Webster comes in as the lone addition, a player who has been in and out with injuries and quality over the last bunch of years. They did trade for Eli Apple at the deadline in '18 and he looked solid down the stretch, but I don't trust the Apple/PJ Williams/Ken Crawley/Patrick Robinson group behind Lattimore. None of these guys, even Lattimore, have displayed enough consistency over their careers, but the team does have depth so it seems they will continue to use the hot hand at corner. Vonn Bell and Marcus Williams can be hit or miss at safety as well. They're going to want to control tempos and keep Brees and the offense on the field as much as possible... when the Saints are at the top of their game they run the ball well and grind out long drives, but opposing teams should still be able to pass on this unit if Jordan and company don't rush the quarterbacks.
Offseason Grade: B+... to me the motto seemed like; stay the course with slight upgrades where needed. I'm sure they begged Unger to stay but the transition at center will be the one major downgrade to watch. It would have been nice to give McCoy one year to learn from the vet. Cook could be the missing piece on this offense, I love that move, paired with the diversely-talented backfield. Brees is nearing the end, ring #2 is now or never.
The buzz around North Carolina is that Cam Newton's shoulder is healthy and ready to throw in 2019. This is more important than anything else for this team. They have talent on both sides of the ball and a head coach who knows what he's doing in Ron Rivera, but a lot of the Panthers success or lack there of is usually due to the play of Cam, and the level of his play usually comes down to his body's wear and tear. Unfortunately for Newton, his style of quarterback which includes the way he throws the ball mechanically (not to mention trucking his way through linebackers over the years), is conducive to injury. He might seem like Superman at times, but all players are still human as far as we know, and these body-blows have clearly affected him since his MVP season. You'll see a common idea to get younger on offensive line in most of these South teams. The Panthers also spend a high pick on tackle Greg Little (second round), your classic ironic name of a person. Little is unlikely to start, as Taylor Moton is coming off a tremendous campaign at LT and Daryl Williams was just resigned to be the RT, but it's never a bad idea to stockpile linemen. More importantly, Cam will now work with one of the best centers in the NFL, as Matt Paradis is a huge free agent GET from Denver. With former center Ryan Kalil finally calling it quits last December after a bunch of injury-plagued seasons in a row, this was a huge hole to fill and GM Marty Hurney got his guy. Trai Turner and Greg Van Roten will start at guard to round out what should be a more consistent line with brother Matt Kalil also departing. QB Will Grier is also drafted with an eye towards the future and Christian McCaffrey looked like a miniature Hulk in OTA's, two random facts that could have relevance this season, but likely won't. WR will matter though, veteran OC Norv Turner will need someone to step up with Devin Funchess leaving. The likely candidate is DJ Moore, a 2018 first rounder who's shown flashes in his rookie season, but ex-Patriot Chris Hogan, comeback player Torrey Smith, journeyman Jarius Wright, speedster Curtis Samuel, the Lordly Aldrick Robinson, and AAF standout Rashad Ross will all be in the mix... competition is great! Or at least it should be.
The defense is where the bigger changes occurred. Ron Rivera and recently promoted DC Eric Washington (former D-line coach for Carolina from 2011-2017) have decided to switch their scheme from 4-3 to 3-4 in 2019. The move comes as a bit of a surprise, being that teams don't make changes like this too often, and when they do it commonly occurs under a new coaching staff. These coaches have both been with the Panthers for a large amount of time, but somewhere in this organization it was decided that a switch needed to be made. A lot of the rumors circulated once the team drafted edge rusher Brian Burns in this year's first round. The speed and athleticism of Burns off the edge could be scary for challengers, but in a 3-4 more than a 4-3. With versatile players already on the roster, like all-pro DT Kawann Short who will switch roles from run-stuffer to four or five-technique DE, this transition is possible with less moving parts than normal. Dontari Poe is your classic nose tackle already, and Gerald McCoy (also more accustomed to the 4-3 look on Tampa) was signed to fill out what could be a power-packed line with loads of experience if the players can learn the new system without any hiccups. Bruce Irvin (another vet), is brought in opposite Burns. With any out with the old and in with the new, there were losses, namely Thomas Davis, a beloved linebacker who was let go in a cap shed. Wes Horton moved on too, and in the secondary Da'Norris Searcy, Mike Adams, and Captain Munnerlyn were all cut loose. While the D-line brought in track record and know-how, the secondary has gotten younger. CB Javien Elliott may be the only signing (another TB castaway), but starting roles were carved out for Donte Jackson (CB), Eric Reid (S), and Rashaan Gaulden (S)... all drafted in 2018.
Offseason Grade: B+... like the Saints, the changes weren't drastic, but I feel the team got better as a whole. The two main questions of 'what can wrong' for Carolina are, can Cam play closer to that MVP level again? And will the defensive unit be able to switch schemes successfully? With some of the most intelligent defensive players in the business in Luke Kuechly, Short, McCoy, and more, I believe they can... Newton is the part that worries me, let the roller coaster ride begin.
The Falcons had a disappointing year in 2018, going 7-9 after back to back playoff runs under head coach Dan Quinn. After the Superbowl loss in '16 (a famous 31 point comeback by the Patriots that Atlanta fans would rather forget), Kyle Shanahan took his head coaching post out in San Fran and things seemed to spiral downhill, despite sneaking into the playoffs in '17. The defense has been generally poor even though Dan Quinn should help in that regard, and OC Steve Sarkisian wasn't able to spark the same magic that the offense found with Shanahan. I'm not saying Matt Ryan hasn't done well in these last couple years, his stats actually haven't been too different from the MVP season (which shows how much winning makes a difference in the voting), but the final plays and crucial moments haven't clicked like they did with Shanahan. Possibly the most crucial move of this entire offseason will be a coaching hire. Former Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter will move back to OC, after the firing of Sarkisian. Tampa has had one of the most dynamic high-flying passing attacks in recent seasons no matter who's been throwing the football, and while some credit was taken away from Koetter in favor of his OC, Todd Monken, one would have to believe Dirk had a lot to do with this. He was an awful head coach in TB, I get that, but countless top coordinators have had failed stints as head coaches. Koetter will try and get back to what he's best at, and so will Matty Ice, Julio Jones, and this offense. PS... Matt Bryant is relieved of his duties as the ultra consistent older place kicker was passed on for the younger and cheaper Tavecchio, a shame for a man who has done all you can ask over his tenure.
With the Julio Jones cap hit looming, like Thomas in NO, the Dirty Birds weren't too active in free agency. They took a hit losing Tevin Coleman, who was stolen away by Shanahan. Coleman has handled a giant chunk of the backfield touches since Devonta Freeman's breakout campaign in '16, and if Freeman can't stay on the field duties will fall to Ito Smith and Kenjon Barner (an immediate 'what could go wrong?' scenario). This team wants to run the ball with force, they even signed fullback-tight end Luke Stocker, they'll need Freeman to do that. The receiving targets remain exactly the same as recent seasons (Julio, Sanu, Ridley, Hardy, and Hooper at tight end), so no change there. The offense line has changed a bunch though. Alex Mack and Jake Matthews are the anchors at center and left tackle respectively, the rest is brand new. At guard, Ben Garland signs elsewhere and Brandon Fusco is cut. Former Jet James Carpenter and rookie first rounder Chris Lindstrom are slated to start in their place. At right tackle, either Jamon Brown or the other 2018 first rounder may start (Kaleb McGary out of Washington) after Ryan Schraeder and Zane Beadles were released. I don't mind getting younger on the line, I actually love it, but from what I read Lindstrom and McGary were more question-mark first round picks than some of the other O-linemen selected in 2019. That, and the fact that they could start next to each other on a wildly inexperienced right side of the line scares me. This is a huge area of concern for the Falcons, and I feel like GM Thomas Dimitroff is doing Ryan and Koetter a disservice by pairing rookie O-linemen together with only ex-Giant Brown behind them. Carpenter is no stud at LG either, I know as a Jets fan... things could go very wrong very quickly if these two draft picks don't land. Unfortunately, I really don't think Dimitroff has done enough on defense to propel this team either. They ranked 25th in points allowed in 2018, 8th in 2017 (D actually got them into the wildcard this season shockingly), 27th in 2016 when they made the would-be title run, and 14th in 2015. I know MLB Deion Jones injury really killed them last season and his return is a key positive, but this unit hasn't been upgraded much over the years and I'm not sure why. Grady Jarrett is a top DT and they did draft CB Isaiah Oliver and DT Deadrin Senat in the second and third rounds last year (who both might start this year), but where are the free agent acquisitions to the need areas? This year Ra'Shede Hageman, Tyeler Davison (both depth DT's), DE Adrian Clayborn (who left the team for one season before returning), and backup safety JJ Wilcox are the only additions, while DT Terrell McClain, DE/LB Bruce Irvin, CB Justin Bethel, and nickel corner Brian Poole all depart. A lot of the "young defensive talent" Falcons fans have talked up all these years have been underwhelming, especially edge rushers Beasley, McKinley, and Campbell who are all still with the team. If anything happens to Jones, Trufant, or Jarrett, that new offense better work.
Offseason Grades: C... Dimitroff is trying to reboot the O-line back to its glory, but I feel this initial year or two learning curve may be rough on these youngsters. Carpenter and Brown are band-aids at best, so Lindstrom and McGary better learn fast if these Birds want to compete. If the defense was the strength of the team, this O-line concern wouldn't be so glaring, but the defense is not the strength. I see a clear lack of depth in the secondary, linebackers, and edge rushers, not to mention the running back crew... trouble is brewing down in Dirty, I can feel it.
A regime change was certainly needed in Tampa, after Dirk Koetter followed up a 9-7 season in 2016 with back to back 5-11 records in '17 and '18. It seemed to me that general manager Jason Licht used Koetter as a scapegoat, even though I haven't been impressed with his moves the last number of seasons, but for whatever reason Licht got another chance amidst the coaching overhaul. This time Licht went with experience and acclaim, hiring one of the top coaching candidates on the market, Bruce Arians (former Cardinals and Colts head coach). Arians was quick to reunite with his DC in Arizona, Todd Bowles, who was finally fired from a brutal tenure as head coach of the Jets. Say what you want about Bowles in NY, and trust me I've heard and said it all, but the guy knows defense. This familiar role will feel like the end of a long nightmare for him. Ex-QB turned rising star in the coaching world, Byron Leftwich, will take over as OC. I'm excited about all these hires, but I'm not ready to jump on the Buccaneers bandwagon... or ship?... just yet. Too many times before have I heard enormous Bucs hype going into a new season, only to see the same losing product. That hype usually centers around Jameis Winston, who will never be a championship QB in my mind. He forces passes, makes poor in-game decisions, and has yet to do anything clutch or even get his team near the playoffs... somewhere the franchise hasn't been since 2007. Jameis is still 25 though, so the Bucs won't completely give up on him yet, even after the Uber saga and Fitzmagic briefly taking his job. Arians' opening years are likely his last chance at becoming THE GUY in TB.
The offensive moves were oddly slim, being that the staff changed so much. Blaine Gabbert was signed to be backup quarterback... if recent seasons are a trustworthy guide, he'll start at some point during 2019. Ronald Jones is supposedly making progress as the backup RB (woohoo?), but the nonexplosive Peyton Barber is set to start again. Andre Ellington subs Jacquizz Rodgers in a third down RB depth move nobody cares about. Earl Watford is also acquired for guard depth, otherwise the O-line stays completely intact. I would consider their line average, not terrible or anything special, which is a common theme on this roster. The one bright spot on this offense was always the wide receivers and tight ends. Most QB's would light it up throwing to these players, and some even have in Tampa, but not Jameis for the most part. This area got worse this offseason too however, as the Bucs lose DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries, important cogs in the four-headed WR core of 2018. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain, adding Breshad Perriman through free agency. That is a noticeable downgrade. OJ Howard and Cameron Brate remain with the team at TE, they'll be leaned on even more so this season. Revamping the D was a much larger operation, as they will take on Bowles classic 3-4 from Arizona and NYJ. The Bucs had been 4-3 for some time, and the personnel hasn't exactly fit with some of the most expensive contracts. Jason Pierre-Paul for example (he's injured this year and may not even play, but where would he play if he wasn't), or Gerald McCoy who was released before signing with a rival. D-linemen Mitch Unrein and Vinny Curry, LB's Kwon Alexander and Adarius Taylor, CB Brent Grimes, and safety Josh Shaw are also all gone or unlikely to return. One big addition was NT Ndamukong Suh, signed to be the linchpin of the 3-4 front. The Bucs also drafted Vita Vea in the first round last year, a similar player and position to Suh. One of the two will slide over to DE and either Beau Allen, Carl Nassib, Rakeem Nunes-Roches, or William Gholston would probably fill in on the other side. The problem is, most of these players are either out of position or too small to play inside like this. Devin White is drafted first round to become the next captain of the D at MLB, former Bowles Cardinal Deone Bucannon should start next to him, moving Lavonte David outside. I like the signing of Shaq Barrett on the other edge, an underrated player in Denver. Kentrell Brice is brought in at safety and corners Sean Bunting and Jamel Dean are selected in the second and third rounds of the draft. Along with Hargreaves and the two rookies, Carlton Davis and MJ Stewart (both rookies last year) make a youthful secondary, but still one that needs to improve.
Offseason Grade: B-... Licht gets an A for the coaching staff, but a C for the player moves. The offensive personnel has absolutely taken a step back and while I feel the defense is on the right track in what needed a complete uprooting, this looks more like a two year process. There are too many moving parts and players that are left without a proper role. 2019 will be a year for Arians and Bowles to see what they have in Jameis Winston, as well as this young secondary and some of Licht's recent draft picks. If they all come up lacking, the Glazier family should blame the GM and let Arians help pick a new one, like they should of done from the start!
I definitely feel more pressure predicting this division than a lot of the others. I remember years where I was convinced the Saints and Falcons would be playoff teams, only to have them finish with six or seven wins. I remember times where the Panthers have won when I didn't expect them to, like in 2015, and lost when I thought they'd keep the hot streak going. As I stated above, the Bucs are always the hot pick to shock the league in recent memory and they never do it. This year I do think it will be relatively straightforward, and saying that makes me nervous because this division is never that predictable! But I'll go with the facts and my gut. I'm taking the New Orleans Saints to march on and win their third straight NFC South title, with the Carolina Panthers competing for a wildcard. Atlanta will have a disappointing season that falls just below .500 and Tampa Bay will work through growing pains and suffer another last place finish just behind them.
Being that this is my final NFC offseason division ranks, I'll refresh your memory on my early playoff picks (before any detrimental injuries and under-performances derail my predictions)... my division winners are Philadelphia (East), Green Bay (North), New Orleans (South), and San Francisco (West) and for the wildcard I have Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, Carolina, Los Angeles, and Seattle as my six main teams in competition (I'll take LA and Chicago but this wildcard race will be tight as can be). That leaves New York, Washington, Minnesota, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Arizona as my letdowns and non-factors... can't wait for football! But still one AFC article to go where I take on the dominant Patriots dynasty, my team the New York Jets, Bills Mafia and Miami, make sure to keep an eye out for that as my final AFC predictions will be follow the analysis.
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