Fantasy Baseball Prep Week: SP, Toeing the Rubber
- iAmMizz!
- Jul 18, 2020
- 12 min read
When a pitcher toes the rubber, this signals that they are ready to go. On draft night, you must also be ready to go when it comes to SP's. This position is just as deep as the outfield, but possibly more important to get right. I am a firm believer that you do not need to go all out for aces in fantasy baseball. It's nice to have one ace you can rely on, sure, but I reserve the bulk of the early rounds to everyday hitting talents. This does not mean to scratch pitching altogether. Similar to the QB position in football, starting pitching talent is plentiful, you just have to know where to look. A few areas I focus on are team strength (can the pitcher win a lot of games on the team they are on?), strength of schedule/opponents (especially this year with the regionalized schedules), strikeouts (always), injury reliability, and prospects/call-ups. That last area has been my most key in recent years. It doesn't necessarily apply to draft strategy, but right after the draft I add every starting pitcher prospect with a chance of being called up to my watch list. Throughout the season, I will always give prospects opportunities when called up, especially at SP. Some get bombed, but others catch fire and bring in major points at a premium value. Last year Zac Gallen, Dylan Cease, Dakota Hudson and Dinelson Lamet were four younger pitchers that I signed mid-season that were all vital towards my success. You can also apply this strategy to the draft. One of my older brothers is always great at finding the next breakout pitcher in the mid-to-late rounds, rather than settling on the player coming off a breakout year early on. Tiers 3 & 4 usually hold a ton of sleepers at the SP position. While everyone else is drafting pitchers early, clean up on hitters at the beginning and add sleeper pitching late. If executed, this can be the winning combo in fantasy baseball.
Format: Using projected ESPN Fantasy (points) ranks, I'll list each position's notable players and highlight sleepers and busts (in relation to their draft stock). Projected points are based on settings used in a league I have been a part of for 10+ years, and do not always correlate:
Inning Pitched- 3, Strikeout- 2, Quality Start- 5, Win- 10, Save- 10, Hold- 5
(BONUSES) Complete Game- 5, Shutout- 10, No Hitter- 15, Perfect Game- 20
(NEGATIVES) Hit- 1, Earned Run- 2, Walk- 1, Hit By Pitch- 1, Loss- 5, Blown Save- 5
Before reading on, here are the links to the other positional fantasy articles I have posted:
TIER 1
**Key- Position Rank/Overall Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points)
1/5. Gerrit Cole, Yankees (402): (LIKE) 2.50 ERA with 13.8 K/9 in 2019. Cole is a lifelong Yankees fan and seems pumped to pitch in front of the Pinstripes faithful. Cy Young candidate.
2/9. Jacob deGrom, Mets (338): (LIKE) After back-to-back NL Cy Youngs, it's hard not to like Jake.
3/15. Justin Verlander, Astros (300): (DISLIKE) At some point Verlander will slow down. I don't feel confident drafting him this high anymore with more valuable options available.
4/17. Max Scherzer, Nationals (325): (LIKE) To be honest, I've never drafted Scherzer once, but he's been so consistent for such a long time, it's really hard to argue against taking him.
5/19. Walker Buehler, Dodgers (271): (LIKE) I would rather go Buehler than Verlander or Scherzer. I think he's in the better situation out in LA, plus his ceiling is non-existent at age 25.
6/24. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (256): (DISLIKE-BUST) Strasburg's emergence during the playoff run, and particularly the World Series, has made some believe that this former top pitching prospect has finally found his game. I don't buy it, I remember the injury-prone mid-three ERA starter with the high WHIP.
TIER 2
7/26. Jack Flaherty, Cardinals (264): (NEITHER) Don't dislike Flaherty, but I think last year was the time to draft him. His stock is a little too high for my liking now.
8/32. Shane Bieber, Indians (284): (LIKE) Strictly due to health, I have to go Bieber over Clevinger right now. Both very talented young arms.
9/35. Mike Clevinger, Indians (295): (RISKY) Returned from injury, but his back is a concern. If he needs any time off between starts, it could kill you this year.
10/39. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (243): (LIKE) Because the Dodgers are so loaded this season, you can't go wrong with drafting a veteran like Kershaw.
11/44. Patrick Corbin, Nationals (252): (BUST) Not sure I like Corbin at this high of a draft capital, there are many cheaper pitchers that could muster the same return, or better.
12/47. Charlie Morton, Rays (275): (LIKE) Could be Morton's last season in the MLB, expect him to give it everything he has.
13/53. Blake Snell, Rays (253): (BUST) After his corona-virus comments during the labor disputes, I'm staying away from Snell. You have to expect the unexpected this season, and I could picture Snell sitting out if things go awry.
14/56. Chris Paddack, Padres (215): (SLEEPER) Paddack is a young player on a dark horse team with his career in front of him, he's exactly the type of pitcher I'm looking to draft.
15/58. Luis Castillo, Reds (248): (SLEEPER) With improvements in ERA, innings pitched, wins and strikeouts per nine innings in 2019, could 2020 finally be the year Castillo enters the elite tier?
16/65. Lucas Giolito, White Sox (289): (UNSURE) The former top prospect finally found some consistency in 2019 as he practically doubled his strikeout rate and cut his ERA in half. This one is a risk, Giolito could fall back on bad habits, or he might have only just begun to his his stride.
17/67. Zack Greinke, Astros (278): (SLEEPER) Greinke is usually a reliable regular season pitcher, his personal struggles with anxiety are what hinder him in the postseason. Luckily for us, playoff performance doesn't matter in fantasy. Houston might be the best team he's ever pitched for.
18/72. Aaron Nola, Phillies (248): (SLEEPER) Nola's buzz has completely gone silent after an average season. The 27-year old is only one year removed from getting the third most Cy Young votes, and I like the fact that he has pitched 200-plus innings in back-to-back years.
19/82. Tyler Glasnow, Rays (225): (NEITHER) Late arrival to camp because of a positive covid test. He may be limited in his first couple starts. Possible breakout after that, although Glasnow has had issues with injury in the past.
TIER 3
20/85. Yu Darvish, Cubs (215): (BUST) Darvish is a strikeout pitcher that could blow up in your face on any given outing. Just think that there are better options lower in the draft.
21/88. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers (246)
22/90. Shohei Ohtani, Angels (189): (BUST) How many rest days will Ohtani lose in a 60-game season when he is alternating from hitter to pitcher? And if he gets hurt again, forget about it.
23/97. Carlos Carrasco, Indians (234) [RP elibility]
24/101. Jesus Luzardo, Athletics (155): (RISKY SLEEPER) RP ONLY but will gain SP eligibility shortly. An abbreviated camp makes Luzardo a slight health risk, but his electric stuff makes him a candidate for a breakout rookie season.
25/109. Jose Berrios, Twins (242): (SLEEPER) Constantly ranked lower than he should be, Berrios should once again dominate a poor Central region behind a brutish offense.
26/110. Trevor Bauer, Reds (226): (SLEEPER) Love Bauer at this position in the draft. Could have a big bounce-back year for the Reds after struggling in 2019.
27/113. Sonny Gray, Reds (198): (SLEEPER) Gray proved yet again that he can pitch away from the big city. Cincinnati may be the perfect home for Sonny to flourish.
28/115. James Paxton, Yankees (207): (SLEEPER) Healthy after the delay, and pitching for one of the best teams in baseball.
29/117. Corey Kluber, Rangers (223)
30/124. Frankie Montas, Athletics (212): (RISKY SLEEPER) Montas was caught using PED's, but his coaches credit his pitching adjustments as the cause of his 2019 surge. Do you agree?
31/127. Lance Lynn, Rangers (255)
32/130. Max Fried, Braves (184)
33/136. Mike Soroka, Braves (211): (SLEEPER) Soroka should be the first pitcher off the board from Atlanta, the sinker-baller is the next Braves ace.
34/142. Dinelson Lamet, Padres (175): (BUST) I signed Lamet in August last year, and now he's rated as the 34th best starting pitcher? A possible late-bloomer at age 28, or maybe he's just overrated after an okay finish to the 2019 season.
35/145. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Blue Jays (205): (SLEEPER) It really is disrespectful seeing Ryu this low after last year. I get that he's not a strikeout guy, and I get that the season was more or less an outlier but still, I'll take Ryu at this value any day. Toronto is also a lot better than people think.
36/148. Madison Bumgarner, Diamondbacks (185): (SLEEPER) Very intriguing seeing Mad-Bum in the mid-30's for SP's. He's only 30 years old, and the change of scenery away from San Fran might invigorate the veteran ace.
37/150. Kyle Hendricks, Cubs (202)
38/152. Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox (181): (SLEEPER) A positive covid test delayed Rodriguez. It may also limit his pitches in his first couple starts, but otherwise I like E-Rod as an underrated starter.
39/153. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks (170): (SLEEPER) My biggest sleeper last year so I can't abandon him now. Gallen is the Jeff McNeil of MLB pitchers. He has overcome projections and scouting at every level, including the big leagues in 2019, I wouldn't bet against him.
40/155. Lance McCullers Jr., Astros (198): (RISKY) I'm staying away from McCullers after his prolonged injury absence from the league.
41/160. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (169): (BUST) This one has multiple layers to it. First off, Wheeler is a fly ball/strikeout pitcher who always struggled with the long ball in Citizens Bank Park, so I didn't like the free agent fit with the Phillies at all. Wheeler's wife is also pregnant, and he has made it unclear whether he'll return after the baby is born. At the very least, he'll probably miss two starts (maybe more). I am very against drafting Wheeler in 2020.
TIER 4
42/162. Julio Urias, Dodgers (174): (UNSURE) Would love Urias, but some reports indicate the Dodgers may have him skip starts this year as he gets reintroduced to a starter role.
43/168. Matt Boyd, Tigers (196): (BUST) Strikeout numbers skyrocketed to 11.6 per nine last season, but Boyd holds a career ERA of 4.92 and he pitches for a bad team.
44/170. Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks (180)
45/175. Kenta Maeda, Twins (202): (SLEEPER) Maeda may finally get a chance to start full-time in Minnesota, and with RP eligibility he is a versatile arm on your roster.
46/178. Sean Manaea, Athletics (193): (SLEEPER) Surprised by this rank, Manaea has ace-level stuff and seems healthier than ever before.
47/184. German Marquez, Rockies (180): (UNSURE) Colorado pitchers have burned me so many times now. Marquez is actually the most consistent Coors Field pitcher in their rotation, but the safe move is just to avoid them at all costs.
48/189. Mike Minor, Rangers (255): (BUST) My money is on Minor regressing back to form after a bizarre breakout season at age 31.
49/191. Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks (184): (UNSURE) Promising young starter, but a major health risk coming off a forearm injury.
50/195. A.J. Puk, Athletics (178): (WATCH LIST) RP eligible only, but should start for Oakland.
51/196. Andrew Heaney, Angels (150): (BUST) Concerned about Heaney's ability to stay healthy in a season where every start is extremely valuable.
52/203. Mike Foltynewicz, Braves (163): (BUST) Hot and cold pitcher, I want consistency during a shortened season.
53/207. Joe Musgrove, Pirates (174)
54/209. Mashahiro Tanaka, Yankees (182): DTD after getting hit in the head by a line drive, should be okay from all reports.
55/211. Jake Odorizzi, Twins (184): (SLEEPER) Decent pitcher, but he's a sleeper because his team puts up major run support and he's pitching in the Central region.
56/213. Jon Gray, Rockies (162)
57/215. Dallas Keuchel, White Sox (175): (SLEEPER) Keuchel doesn't get enough strikeouts to be considered top tier in fantasy. Call it a hunch though, I feel really good about him having a strong season in the Windy City.
58/220. Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox (156)
59/222. Jose Urquidy, Astros (133): (UNSURE) I liked Urquidy as a sleeper, but it appears he may have left camp with covid, he'll start the season on the injured list and be out indefinitely.
60/223. Caleb Smith, Marlins (170)
61/228. Marcus Stroman, Mets (173): (SLEEPER) Stroman is taking over the #2 role on the Mets behind deGrom with Wheeler gone and Thor out. A Long Island native playing on a contract year, I expect Stroman to step up for his hometown.
62/232. Rich Hill, Twins (158): (UNSURE) Fully healthy after the delay, but how much does Rich Hill have left in the tank, and does his age make him a covid risk?
63/236. Joey Lucchesi, Padres (154)
64/240. Ryan Yarbrough, Rays (162) [RP eligible]
65/243. Dylan Bundy, Angels (172): (SLEEPER) Possibly LA's new ace, Bundy has strikeout potential and is finally not pitching in Baltimore.
66/245. Jose Quintana, Cubs (112) DTD with thumb injury, will miss start of season.
67/248. Garrett Richards, Padres (92): (BUST) Plagued by injuries his entire career, I cannot trust Richards to pitch often enough in a 60-game season.
68/253. Anthony DeSclafani, Reds (147)
69/256. Mitch Keller, Pirates (124): (SLEEPER) Not to be confused with Brad Keller, Mitch is one of Pittsburgh's better pitching prospects. He was disastrous in a brief appearance last season so don't overdraft him, but some think Keller could be an NL ROY candidate.
70/258. Miles Mikolas, Cardinals (130): (SLEEPER) Mikolas was being drafted much higher in 2019, perhaps he's due for a bounce-back after an inconsistent campaign.
71/260. Aaron Civale, Indians (160): (SLEEPER) Cleveland produces starting pitching, and Civale could be the next star to come up through their system. In 57.2 IP last year, he posted a 2.34 ERA with 46 K's and only 16 walks.
72/268. Yonny Chirinos, Rays (156) [RP eligible] Absent from camp, possibly covid or opt-out related. Likely to miss start of season.
LONGSHOTS
73/271. Pablo Lopez, Marlins (120)
74/272. Steven Matz, Mets (119)
75/277. Josh Lindblom, Brewers (109): (BUST) Had some success overseas, but I don't see Lindblom making a huge impact in "the show."
76/278. Alex Wood, Dodgers (124): (WATCH LIST) More confident in Stripling just below, but Wood once had his best years in LA. Now back, can he regain his form?
77/282. Ross Stripling, Dodgers (191): (SLEEPER) The RP eligible Stripling will be starting for a stacked Dodgers team with Price opting out. He could clean up in fantasy.
79/288. Sandy Alcantara, Marlins (131)
81/302. Brendan McKay, Rays (93) (RISKY SLEEPER) I'm wary of the dual-position hitter-pitcher players in a short season, but if McKay just sticks to pitching he might be an effective sleeper.
82/305. Dylan Cease, White Sox (124) (SLEEPER) Cease got a taste of the majors in 2019, possible breakout candidate this season.
83/306. Dakota Hudson, Cardinals (133): (WATCH LIST) Doesn't strike anyone out, but this soft-tosser pitches like a veteran and knows how to get outs.
84/307. Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox (137) [RP eligible]
86/314. Adrian Houser, Brewers (136) [RP eligible]
87/321. Johnny Cueto, Giants (101): (RISKY SLEEPER) Out of the league for quite some time, Johnny Cueto is finally back, but how effective will he be for a poor Giants team?
90/339. Griffin Canning, Angels (147): (SLEEPER) Canning was probably rushed up to the majors in 2019, which means 2020 could be a more consistent showing for the young starter.
92/348. Austin Voth, Nationals (102): (WATCH LIST) Taking over the rotation spot of opt-out Joe Ross, Voth will be an intriguing fifth starter to monitor.
93/357. Jeff Samardzija, Giants (122)
95/364. Rick Porcello, Mets (156): (WATCH LIST) Worth a look after the change of scenery. The former Cy Young is a Jekyll versus Hyde type from season to season, but you'll want him on the good years.
96/367. John Means, Orioles (129): (RISKY SLEEPER) Good pitcher in a bad situation. Means will have to face a gauntlet of opponents this year between the AL and NL East lineups, but the Orioles scheduled Opening Day starter did manage a 3.60 ERA last year through 155 innings.
97/371. MacKenzie Gore, Padres (33): (WATCH LIST) Popular rookie of the year candidate despite the fact that he's not currently with the major league squad. Must-sign when called up.
99/375. Zach Plesac, Indians (142)
101/381. Cole Hamels, Braves (119): Shoulder/tricep soreness, unlikely to be ready for Opening Day and questionable after that.
102/384. Anibal Sanchez, Nationals (137): (SLEEPER) If he pitches as well as he did down the stretch last season, the wily vet is a bargain this low in the draft, or possibly out of free agency.
103/388. Julio Teheran, Angels (130) Joined team late, may miss season start date.
106/397. Jon Lester, Cubs (105)
107/398. Mike Fiers, Athletics (133)
108/400. Justus Sheffield, Mariners (131): (WATCH LIST) Former top Yankee prospect, keep an eye on his progress.
109/404. Matt Shoemaker, Blue Jays (147): (WATCH LIST) Strikeout pitcher on a Toronto team that should be a lot better in 2020. Should be ranked higher.
Honorable Mentions
427. Zach Davies, Padres (93)
429. Casey Mize, Tigers (n/a): (WATCH LIST) Number 1 pick in 2018, Tigers could call him up if they are really as terrible as expected.
435. Wade Miley, Reds (78): (WATCH LIST) Miley is coming off two of his best seasons and pitching in a weak Central region for a playoff contender. Not sure why he's this low.
437. Jake Arrieta, Phillies (97): A Cy Young winner in 2015, it's truly amazing how irrelevant Arrieta has become in fantasy. Do not like him pitching in this region.
441. Yusei Kikuchi, Mariners (133)
464. Gio Gonzalez, White Sox (127)
535. Kyle Freeland, Rockies (77): (WATCH LIST) After an All-Star 2018, Freeland was catastrophic last season. Colorado has no one better, so the lefty should get another shot.
603. Danny Duffy, Royals (145): (WATCH LIST) Not a sleeper by any means, but considering the veteran is Kansas City's Opening Day starter he deserves a much higher rank than 603.
N/A. Deivi Garcia, Yankees (5): (WATCH LIST) If the Yanks call him up to the rotation, sign him.
N/A. Kwang-Hyun Kim, Cardinals (116): (WATCH LIST) Right now the overseas signing only has RP eligibility, but he is more likely to start for St. Louis. He's looked promising in camp, could be a monster sleeper if he nails down a spot in the rotation.
OPT-OUTS/INJURIES/SUSPENSIONS
David Price, Dodgers- opt out
Mike Leake, Diamondbacks- opt out
Joe Ross, Nationals- opt out
Tyson Ross, Giants- opt out
Felix Hernandez, Braves- opt out
Michael Kopech, White Sox- opt out
Chris Sale, Red Sox- injury, out for season
Noah Syndergaard, Mets- injury, out for season
Luis Severino, Yankees- injury, out for season
Chris Archer, Pirates- injury, out for season
Jameson Taillon, Pirates- injury, out for season
Michael Pineda, Twins- suspension, out for HALF the season
Domingo German, Yankees- suspension, out for season
Looking at this SP field in 2020, I see a plethora of options in the middle of the draft (even with some big names like Sale, Severino and Syndergaard off the board). While tier 1 & 2 have the aces we know and love, don't be afraid to wait on pitching after grabbing a star to be your headliner. Starting pitching won't be nearly as important in a short season, and the 100-260 range on the overall rank is loaded with enough sleeper potential to get you by. After the draft, remember to keep track of your prospects list for mid-season help. With the possibility of covid absences throughout the year, winning free agency will also be crucial this time around. Most importantly, remember that 2020 is a sprint, not the usual 162-game grind. Have quicker leashes with players than normal, ride hot streaks, be active in free agency and of course... WIN DRAFT NIGHT.
Comments