Fantasy Baseball Prep Week: 1B, Don't Get Burned... +DH

Pete Alonso's first season with the Mets was a dream come true, after breaking the rookie HR record, but can he emulate his success? Photo Credit: NY Times

First base was once a fantasy position that personified both brute force and slugging powerhouses. It was one of the deeper areas in drafts, and didn't always demand a high pick, but the game has since changed. Shortstops and second basemen have begun to produce much more offensively, with a wealth of depth behind their big stars, and first base has shrunk as a whole in terms of productivity and team importance. Last year, one man sparked a renaissance at 1B, and that man was rookie Pete Alonso. Is Alonso just a throwback to a forgotten era? Or will the first base position make a comeback in 2020?

*I'm going to do fantasy baseball a bit different than I did football, using projected ESPN Fantasy (points) ranks to go position by position and highlight players I see as sleepers and busts (in relation to their positional rank). The projected points are based on the point settings of a fantasy baseball league I have been a part of for 10+ years, and do not always correlate to ranking:

• Single- 2, Double- 5, Triple- 15, Homer- 10 (plus RBI/Run Scored)

• Run Scored- 3, RBI- 5, Walk - 2, Stolen Base- 3

• (NEGATIVES) Strikeout- 2, Caught Stealing- 2, GIDP- 5

**Being that there are many 1B eligible players that could be drafted to play first, but are not considered typical first basemen, I will list those players separately at the bottom of this article, and talk about them in more detail during their own positional article.

TIER 1

***Key- Position Rank/Overall Rank. Player Name, Team (projected points)

The top-ranked 1B is technically Cody Bellinger, but I will list him primarily as an outfielder.

Freddie Freeman is a modern "Ironman" first baseman, and is the safest pick at the position. Photo Credit: SB Nation

2/14. Freddie Freeman, Braves (457): (EDIT: UNSURE) A model of consistency throughout his career, Freeman has only played less than 147 games twice since 2011. He has hit for a .300-plus batting average four of those years (three out of his last four too, only miss was .295 in 2019), and a .275-plus average eight out of his nine full seasons. The Braves stalwart has also gotten better with age, coming off a season where he mashed a career high 38 HR's and 121 RBI. EDIT: Serious covid case makes his status uncertain, watch to see if Freeman drops on draft night.

3/29. Pete Alonso, Mets (475): (EDIT: LIKE) The Polar Bear, as he is referred to in NY, actually does carry some risk going into his Sophomore campaign but in the shortened season you have got to like the fact that he is young, healthy and lots of home runs waiting to happen.

4/40. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs (480): (LIKE) Rizzo has been comparable to Freeman throughout his career. He is extremely durable, and he generally hits his average totals every season. After a slightly down 2019, I love Rizzo this year for two reasons. One (less important), his coach is now a close friend and mentor in David Ross. Two (key), he's entering his contract year.

5/48. Matt Olson, Athletics (411): (EDIT: BUST) Surging draft status after the hiatus, but I don't think Olson is consistent enough against lefties to have this high of a value in a 60-game season.

TIER 2

6/51. Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (458): (BUST) The numbers dipped for Goldy after leaving hitter-friendly Arizona, but he's still considered a top-notch first baseman by many. The scary stats for me are his elevated strikeout numbers the last two seasons, and the fact that his batting average dropped to .260 last year (lowest mark since his rookie season in 2011).

I don't see Josh Bell repeating his 2019 revival. Photo Credit: Beyond the Box Score

7/54. Josh Bell, Pirates (463): (EDIT: SLEEPER) Bell finally had a breakout season in 2019, but he tailed off towards the end after starting the season as an MVP candidate. His draft status has dipped since Spring but I believe a 60-game season could be just what the first-half player needs to keep himself ranked towards the top of the position.

8/63. Jose Abreu, White Sox (442)

Rhys Hoskins has yet to reach his true potential. Photo Credit: That Balls Outta Here

10/85. Rhys Hoskins, Phillies (426): (SLEEPER) Again, I'm using the term sleeper to say his performance may far exceed this ranking. When looking at this list, Hoskins potential ceiling in the Philadelphia ballpark is probably second only to Freddie Freeman and Pete Alonso in my opinion. I feel we still haven't seen all Hoskins has to offer, and 2020 could be his breakout (think Bellinger status going into 2019).

12/126. Carlos Santana, Indians (459)

13/134. Yuli Gurriel, Astros (407): (BUST) Guriel was supposedly heavily involved in the sign-stealing scandal, and his numbers did seem to get a bump in recent years (whether from incoming pitch knowledge or juiced baseballs). The Cuban national will be 36 years old in June and without the extra "help," I foresee a fantasy decline... also 3B eligible.

15/140. Edwin Encarnacion, White Sox (399) Will primarily play DH.

TIER 3

17/164. C.J. Cron, Tigers (316)

18/165. Christian Walker, Diamondbacks (320)

20/184. Eric Hosmer, Padres (323)

21/186. Joey Votto, Reds (345)

22/191. Luke Voit, Yankees (283): (EDIT: SLEEPER) Voit has supposedly been getting in shape over the quarantine. In a short season and on a stacked lineup, I really love what Voit might be able to do this year.

Renato Nunez has taken advantage of his playing time and his ballpark, so why not capitalize on that too? Photo Credit: Camden Chat

24/218. Renato Nunez, Orioles (313): (SLEEPER) It's hard to imagine an Orioles' sleeper, but Renato Nunez is worth a long look as a solid bat in a HR ballpark. You have to take all the 2019 numbers with a grain of salt, but in really his first opportunity as a full-time player, Nunez hit 31 homers and drove in 90 runs on one of the worst baseball teams I've ever seen. For a developing player who is entering his age 26 season, the trajectory looks appealing for fantasy owners.

25/226. Michael Chavis, Red Sox (238): (SLEEPER) With the Red Sox retooling, Chavis should get a real shot as an everyday player this season, whether at first or second (eligibility at both). At a lower draft stock, he's a smart option to take a flier on.

26/228. Daniel Murphy, Rockies (369): (BUST) Murph has slowly decayed since his days with the Mets and Nationals, chance of injury plus inconsistent play mark him as an easy bust for me.

27/284. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (223)

29/300. Justin Smoak, Brewers (272)

LONG SHOTS

30/307. Howie Kendrick, Nationals (372): EDIT- Still competing with Eric Thames for playing time, but Zimmerman opting out plus the added DH rule both boost Kendrick's fantasy value.

31/308. Evan White, Mariners (205)

32/312. Brandon Belt, Giants (306): (BUST) Belt has been tailing off for awhile now, but his 5.8 average points per game in 2019 tell you all you need to know about any explosiveness he might have left in the tank. Over the course of a full season, Belt's point totals may creep higher and higher, but he's a fantasy fill-in at best, not an everyday starter.

33/315. Jesus Aguilar, Marlins (249): (SLEEPER) Aguilar was getting drafted in the fifth or sixth round just one year prior. He was a major bust in 2019, but now he has a chance to redeem himself with a fresh start in Miami. I'm not necessarily saying draft him high with expectations, but he's intriguing as low-risk bounce-back candidate.

34/316. Eric Thames, Nationals (365) Possible NL DH.

35/317. Dominic Smith, Mets (171): (WATCH LIST) EDIT- More value with the National League DH but still behind Yoenis Cespedes and Pete Alonso. Only has value if he gets traded, or if a Mets injury occurs, but Dom can hit when given the opportunity... also has LF eligibility.

36/337. Ji-Man Choi, Rays (276)

Where's the beef? The Mariners' DH provides power late in the draft. Photo Credit: Everett Herald

38/378. Dan Vogelbach, Mariners (279): (SLEEPER) He'll probably be more of a DH than a first baseman, but so long as he has the eligibility, Vogelbach is worth rostering. The big boy can crush the ball, and will probably cost next to nothing on draft day.

40/383. Albert Pujols, Angels (291): (WATCH LIST) I really hate that I'm highlighting a 40 year old and I'm not saying Pujols is going to be some fantasy stud, but he did quietly come close to 1,000 points last year (averaging 7.4 per game). If you need someone in a pinch, you could do worse than the future Hall of Fame slugger. EDIT- Staying away from older guys like this due to the covid situation.

41/397. Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles (102)

43/399. Mitch Moreland, Red Sox (268)

45/416. Nate Lowe, Rays (135)

46/418. Rowdy Telez, Blue Jays (254)

48/421. Austin Nola, Mariners (153)

*Honorable Mention: Travis Shaw, Blue Jays: (WATCH LIST) He did not play 1B last season, so he only has 3B eligibility for the time being, but there's a good chance he'll start at first for Toronto so it wouldn't be long before that changed. Shaw would be a part of a young lineup that could put up a lot of runs scored, if he was able to get back on track and hold down a starting role, he would gain fantasy relevance once again.

*Honorable Mention: Greg Bird, Rangers: (WATCH LIST) If he wins the job in Texas, the former top prospect for the Yankees could be due for a rebound after the change of scenery.

DH ONLY

1/41. Yordan Alvarez, Astros (476): Best DH in the MLB now, definitely will be drafted high but you will have to sacrifice your UTIL spot to draft him.

2/55. Nelson Cruz, Twins (461)

3/97. Shohei Ohtani, Angels (n/a): (BUST) Returning from Tommy John DTD, too many variables for Ohtani in this weird season, including how often he'll get rest days with every game becoming so valuable.

4/129. Khris Davis, Athletics (348): (SLEEPER) This is the type of masher you want in a 60-game sprint. If he gets hot, it could just win you first place.

5/176. Miguel Andujar, Yankees (292): (SLEEPER) No one knows where Andujar might play or bat this year, but what we do know is the man can hit.

6/249. Nick Solak, Rangers (306)

OPT-OUTS (so far)

Trey Mancini, Orioles (OF/1B)- Colon Cancer

Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals (1B)

Ian Desmond, Rockies (OF/1B)

1B Eligible, but not considered first basemen by trade.

1/4. Cody Bellinger, Dodgers (574), RF/CF/1B

9/79. DJ LeMahieu, Yankees (389), 2B/1B/3B

11/88. Max Muncy, Dodgers (446), 2B/1B/3B

14/139. Yasmani Grandal, White Sox (309), C/1B

16/144. Joc Pederson, Dodgers (359), LF/1B/RF

19/182. Danny Santana, Rangers (312), LF/1B/CF

23/201. Yandy Diaz, Rays (281), 3B/1B

28/296. Travis d'Arnaud, Braves (286), C/1B

39/382. Marwin Gonzalez, Twins (249), RF/1B/3B

46/420. Jake Lamb, Diamondbacks (207), 3B/1B

49/444. Jake Bauers, Indians (154), LF/1B

There are a plethora of passable first basemen in the league, but because of the growing use of platoons and defensive replacements at the position, there aren't many superstars that demand and dominate playing time. If you don't address 1B early in 2020, you might end up wishing you did while you're scouring the free agent market for a full-time talent in mid-July. EDIT- Keep an eye out for sluggers in the National League that may now get extra playing time as DH's.