NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: Conference Finals

After watching my Conference Semifinals picks go 3/4 (the only incorrect pick being the Dallas Stars over the Colorado Avalanche), I find myself in an intriguing position. I have yet to pick Dallas to win since the playoffs have started, mainly because Ben Bishop has been out. As fate would have it though, Anton Khudobin has led the Stars to the Western Conference Finals. Now this is interesting for me personally because back in October I predicted that the Tampa Bay Lightning would defeat the Dallas Stars in the Stanley Cup, meaning my original pick is still in play...

Unfortunately I didn't bet any money on that October 2019 Cup prediction (sigh), but now I find myself at a crossroads in the West. I could either pick the team I picked back before the season began (but haven't picked once during the postseason) in Dallas, or go with the team I've been high on all playoffs in Vegas, who I did not pick to make the Cup back in the Fall.

As I mull that over, let's first take a look at the Eastern Conference Finals.

2020 Eastern Conference Finals

(6) New York Islanders vs. (2) Tampa Bay Lightning [season series: 2-1 Isles]

The Islanders and Lightning will begin their series Monday night. Image: NHL

I've said it in my previous articles, but this just feels like the year the Lightning will finally win the Stanley Cup with this absolutely filthy core of players that they have built around. Standing in their way from the East is a bit of a surprise to some, the New York Islanders. Now I had the Isles winning the Metro before the season began, so I'm not necessarily shocked that they have made it this far. I believe in Barry Trotz and his system, and so do the Isles' players who have totally bought into the former (WSH) Stanley Cup Champion coach's style of play. This team is rugged and defensive, disciplined and well-conditioned, united and determined. The Islanders deserve to be here, make no mistake about it. I was incredibly impressed by their fortitude in Game 7 of the Semi's. The Philadelphia Flyers had all the momentum coming back from being down 3-1 in the series, and yet New York just totally snuffed out their flame with a 4-0 shutout victory. You don't see that type of win very often in sports. Sure Dallas battled and accomplished a similar feat, but they didn't beat Colorado 4-0, they survived in overtime, big difference. Barry Trotz stuck with starter Semyon Varlamov after a weak Game 6, and the Isles' goaltender rewarded him with a season-saving bounce-back performance. On the other side of this matchup, my opinion on Tampa Bay's chances were confirmed. After a win in Game 1, the storm clouds crept in for the Boston Bruins and thunder and lightning came crashing down on their season. Four straight victories for Tampa, and a five game domination of the Presidents Trophy leaders. I can't remember the last time I've seen any team handle this veteran Bruins core so forcefully, including a 7-1 rout in Game 3. The other wins were much closer scorelines, and Tuuka Rask wasn't playing, but that's still an astounding accomplishment by Jon Cooper's Lightning. The key with this 2020 TB team is that they have finally compiled the right group of grit around playmakers like Brayden Point (pictured above) and Nikita Kucherov. Deadline acquisitions Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow have both played integral roles in the postseason (Coleman was maybe the most important player on the ice in the Lightning's Game 2 overtime win that flipped the series). Pat Maroon may not have a ton of points, but he's the grinder that this usually soft Tampa team has always needed. I've also been impressed by the play of Anthony Cirelli, Yanni Gourde and Kevin Shattenkirk. Can't leave out Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev who log crucial minutes on this defense. So how can the Isles compete with a juggernaut like this? I'm not sure they can, but if they are going to have a chance at reaching the Cup Final, they must play their game. Frustrate the Lightning's star power with blocked shots, good goaltending, and hard checking. Long-time grinder Matt Martin has been a revelation in this year's playoffs, deadline target Jean-Gabriel Pageau has fit this NY unit like a glove, and having vets like Cal Clutterbuck and Casey Cizikas healthy again has given the Islanders their identity back. These guys will all need to hammer out key roles in this series, but in the end it will fall on playmakers Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, Brock Nelson and Josh Bailey to net some goals.

Notable Losses: Steven Stamkos (TB, has been out all playoffs)... NYI is healthy, Ryan McDonagh is back for TB.

Top Scorers: TB- Brayden Point (18P, 6G 12A), Nikita Kucherov (16P, 4G 12A), Victor Hedman (9P, 5G 4A), Ondrej Palat (9P, 5G 4A), Alex Killorn (7P, 4G 3A)

NYI- Josh Bailey (17P, 2G 15A), Brock Nelson (15P, 7G 8A), Mathew Barzal (13P, 5G 8A), Anthony Beauvillier (12P, 8G 4A), Jordan Eberle (11P, 3G 8A)

On-Ice Influence: TB- Victor Hedman (+11), Yanni Gourde (+8), Ondrej Palat (+8)

NYI- Jean-Gabriel Pageau (+11), Scott Mayfield (+11), Nick Leddy (+9), Josh Bailey (+9)

Goaltenders: TB- Andrei Vasilevskiy (10-3, 1.91 GAA, .931 S%)

NYI- Semyon Varlamov (9-4, 2.00 GAA, .921 S%)

Prediction: No surprise here but I'm going with Tampa. They have been my team all year, and in the end they just have too much talent on every inch of this roster for NYI to contend with. Isles will make them work for it, but I'll take the Lightning in 5.

2020 Western Conference Finals

(3) Dallas Stars vs. (1) Vegas Golden Knights [season series: Tied 1-1, DAL 1 OT Win]

The Stars and Golden Knights will begin their series tonight (Sunday) at 8 PM. Image: ESPN

So I already prefaced this preview with my dilemma above, the surprise team I loved out of the West to start the season against the team I loved out of the West since the playoffs have gotten underway. Not gonna lie, I wanted to pick an underdog to face off against the Lightning in the Cup Final back in October, being that TB was more of a favorite, but what attracted me to Dallas was their mix of experienced veterans and blossoming youth. Miro Heiskanen was a player that really stood out to me last season when I saw him against my New York Rangers in Madison Square Garden. His poise on the blue line, puck handling ability, composure, and offensive prowess really blew me away. After this 2020 Playoffs, he's already looking like one of the best young defensemen in the game today. I also thought the additions of Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry could help put this team over the top in the playoffs, and that a goaltender like Ben Bishop not only could win a Cup, but deserved one. Piecing all that with a core that includes Tyler Seguin (who I incorrectly predicted as a Hart Trophy finalist in 2020), Esa Lindell and Jamie Benn, and you have a pretty solid team. Not only that, but the type of team built to make a run in the playoffs. Things haven't gone completely as planned for the Stars, backup goalie Anton Khudobin has been called on to start 13 of 16 playoff games, but man has the journeyman risen to the occasion. Dallas doesn't get through Calgary or Colorado without Khudobin's stellar play, and for a team that is styled around defense and goaltending first and fore-most, they haven't missed a beat with Anton in net. Alexander Radulov (pictured above), Denis Gurianov and Roope Hintz are also young Stars' forwards who have stepped up to the plate and got this offense going. For Vegas it's been about teamwork, consistency, and smash-mouth hockey led by infamous goon Ryan Reaves. Reaves' line sets the tempo for this Golden Knights side, sometimes even starting the game at puck drop, and the rest of this tough and disrespected bunch pick up where ever he's left off. Shea Theodore counters Heiskanen as another really polished young D-Man, and deadline acquisition Alec Martinez has become the rock this team needed on the blue line. Speaking of deadline acquisitions, none have been more important to a team's success than net-minder Robin Lehner, who has catapulted Vegas to the top of the Western Conference. Veterans like Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty seem to constantly get lost on this deep roster that began their quest as an expansion team just three short years ago, and Mark Stone has quietly become the most dangerous of them all. Don't forget the original number one forward line for this franchise, comprised of William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith. Everywhere you turn, this team can beat you, and they dare you to forget it.

Notable Losses: Ben Bishop (DAL, doubtful), Martin Hanzal (DAL, out), Roman Polak (DAL, opt-out), Stephen Johns (DAL, has not played in playoffs)... VGK is healthy.

Top Scorers: VGK- Shea Theodore (16P, 6G 10A), Mark Stone (15P, 6G 9A), Reilly Smith (13P, 4G 9A), Alex Tuch (10P, 8G 2A), Jonathan Marchessault (9P, 3G 6A)

DAL- Miro Heiskanen (21P, 5G 16A), Denis Gurianov (15P, 8G 7A), Jamie Benn (13P, 5G 8A), Joe Pavelski (12P, 8G 4A), John Klingberg (12P, 2G 10A)

On-Ice Influence: VGK- Alec Martinez (+12), Shea Theodore (+6), William Carrier (+4)

DAL- Jamie Oleksiak (+6), Joel Kiviranta (+6), Miro Heiskanen (+2)

Goaltenders: VGK- Robin Lehner (8-4, 1.99 GAA, .918 S%)

DAL- Anton Khudobin (8-5, 2.94 GAA, .909 S%)

Prediction: As much as I would love to see my October 2019 prediction come out correct here in September of the following year (after all the craziness that has occurred), I just think Vegas is the all-around better team, but not by much. The West has a longer series, but in the end the Golden Knights advance to their second Stanley Cup in 7.

Advancing to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final, I have:

East (2) Tampa Bay Lightning vs West (1) Vegas Golden Knights

This hockey playoffs has lived up to all the hype and distracted us in ways no one could have hoped or predicted months ago, so thank you NHL! And let's finish strong!