The Way Too Early Stanley Cup Predictions... A Shooting Star Soars, and Lightning Finally Strikes
- iAmMizz!
- Oct 2, 2019
- 15 min read
Updated: Dec 14, 2019
Anyone who watches hockey knows it's probably the toughest sport outside of Golf to predict, especially in October. Part of that is the trade deadline, which usually plays a very large role in the second half and the playoffs, not to mention that sometimes it comes down to the simple question of 'which team is hotter once postseason begins?' A team's fate could also be determined by a matchup problem (Toronto getting bounced by Boston in the first round of the playoffs in what feels like every recent season because of the new playoff format), a major injury (Taylor Hall Devils in 2018 compared to Taylor Hall Devils in 2017), or a run behind a scorching goaltender (St. Louis Blues behind the rookie net-minder Binnington last year). The truth is that no analyst out there knows exactly what will happen in the NHL this season, or any season (forget about the playoffs), but they will give their best guess... so I'll give it a whirl.
Atlantic Division:
1. Tampa Bay Lightning- Last year was the year everything lined up for Tampa, and they choked worse than any Goliath that I can remember in a long time. Having said that, they still have a really great roster and should have another decent shot at the cup. Once Brayden Point returns, the trio of Kucherov/Stamkos/Point is a point scoring group more explosive than any other in the league. They did sell off a couple depth pieces like JT Miller, Adam Erne, and Ryan Callahan, so the re-tooling has begun, but the star-studded core is still intact. Two underrated moves are signing Patrick Maroon and Kevin Shattenkirk on the cheap. I don't think this team runs away with the President's Trophy again, but having Vasilevskiy in the crease plus some of the names above makes the Lightning a near lock for a high seed in the playoffs. They win the Atlantic in a much tighter battle with Boston than 2018.
2. Boston Bruins- The Bruins were the runner up for the cup last season and not too much has changed in 2019. The team has promising youth around a core group of veterans that have withstood the test of time (like all Boston athletes seem to do all of a sudden). The first line, made up of Bergeron/Marchand/Pastrnak, will be one of the best in the game, and Charlie Coyle (a great fit in the playoffs last year) will get to play a full season in Boston. The defense is incredibly deep and should continue to improve as each game passes, with its high-upside youth. Goaltending is sturdy as an team with Rask and Halak. Main loss is playmaker Marcus Johansson.
3. Florida Panthers- One of the huge splashes this Summer was down near Fort Lauderdale. Not only did the Panthers replace Luongo (retired) with top free agent goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky (which immediately puts them in the playoff conversation), they bring in a Stanley Cup Champion coach in Joel Quenneville (Chicago Blackhawks). Coaches matter in hockey, look at the Islanders last season or the Blues after they fired there's. This could be as impactful of an acquisition as any player is. Brett Connolly and Noel Acciari were also nice depth signings. This team might still be one or two players away, but I see major improvement from Florida centered around their young core (Ekblad, Barkov, Dadonov, Hoffman, Trocheck, Huberdeau, and Matheson).
4. Toronto Maple Leafs- The Leafs have been busy this off-season, flipping players and locking up superstars all the while performing a difficult juggling act with their cap space. The defense actually feels refined with Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci, and a full season of Muzzin replacing Hainsey, Gardiner, and Zaitsev. The main problem lies with the depth, as it always will with a team that front-loads their cap into five or six players. They will need Tavares, Marner, and Matthews to click even more in year two and really carry them to victory. Frederik Andersen is another top goaltender to lean on, and they will have to when their lower lines take their shifts. I like the Leafs for a wildcard, which they might prefer after their history against Boston first round.
5. Montreal Canadiens- This has been a team reliant on goalie Carey Price for some time now, only he is aging and the team around him hasn't improved much year to year. Behind Shea Weber and Victor Mete, the defense could be really weak, and the forward depth doesn't jump off the page either. The Canadians are always a grind it out type team, and should be again, but they add no big names this off-season and will continue to rely on young talent like Domi, Gallagher, Danault, Drouin, and more to break through (which didn't work in 2018).
6. Buffalo Sabres- Like a lot of the NHL, this is still a really young team. There's a ton of talent and a high ceiling but there's also a lack of experience. Carter Hutton is arguably one of the worst starting goalies in the league, and the defense in front of him scares me a little. Going up against many high-powered offenses in this division like Tampa, Toronto, Boston, or Florida... Buffalo might give up a solid chunk of goals this season. Bruins Johansson and Rangers Vesey were the key gets,' but former top pick Jack Eichel still runs the show in Northern NY.
7. Detroit Red Wings- The Wings are still in rebuild mode. They weren't good last year and probably won't be good this year, but maybe this time they'll win the draft lottery. Some players to watch are Dylan Larkin, Andreas "AA" Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha, and Dennis Cholowski. I could see some of their veteran defensemen getting moved at the deadline.
8. Ottawa Senators- The tank was on for Ottawa last year, but they didn't even have a 1st round draft pick to enjoy the fruits of their lethargy. A Summer trade with Toronto where they acquired Zaitsev and Connor Brown continued to shape their future, but the present is bleak. Players like Colin White and Brady Tkachuk will continue to develop while others vie for a spot in the Sens' plans, or market themselves for a deadline deal.
Metro Division:
1. New York Islanders- This team is all about the system now that Barry Trotz is in charge. No one expected them to almost win the Metro last year after losing Tavares, but Trotz is a winner and his system works. This guy never misses the playoffs and the roster he has doesn't seem to matter all that much, so long as the players buy in. The Isles didn't really lose anyone from last year besides bounce back goaltender Robin Lehner, but odds are Lehner was the benefactor of this defensive unit and game plan anyway. A veteran like Varlamov should do just fine, and if not, Greiss has shown he can be relied heavily on as a backup. This team has grown together and is solid all the way through, if they keep that 'Tavares chip' on their shoulder this season I like their chances to finish what they started in '18 and win the Metro (with less points than Tampa Bay and Boston).
2. New Jersey Devils- New Jersey is a popular pick for a dark horse in 2019 after trading for PK Subban and drafting Jack Hughes 1st overall... and I don't disagree. The key for the Devils is Taylor Hall. When he's healthy, he's usually in the MVP conversation. Last year Hall brought NJ to a wildcard berth without Hughes or Subban, not to mention any of the younger stars that have emerged since then (Hischier, Butcher, Bratt, Zacha). Wayne Simmonds was another signing this off-season and he'll look to recover from a down season. I think Mackenzie Blackwood ends up surpassing Cory Schneider as the starting goalie on this team, but competition is never a bad thing and both goaltenders should have plenty to fight for. Devils get back into the playoffs.
3. Philadelphia Flyers- The Fly-guys finally made a concerted effort to bulk up the defense this off-season, trading for Justin Braun and Matt Niskanen. These vets are the perfect pieces to balance out the younger D-men like Provorov, Gostisbehere, Sanheim, and Hagg. An improved D coupled with the switch to the prospect goaltender, Carter Hart, may be just the right combo for a Flyers team that has under-performed year after year. The forward crew is the usual suspects (more or less), but they've never been the problem of this franchise. Like Florida, Philly should also benefit from their coaching change, Alain Vigneault has his warts (largely his success in the playoffs), but he's still one of the best regular season coaches in the game.
4. Washington Capitals- There's no doubt in my mind that this Caps team has taken some major strides backwards. Besides stalwarts Ovechkin, Carlson, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Oshie, this team does not thrill you like it used to. They have some decent role players like Hagelin, Wilson, Eller, and Vrna, but they are really weak in the back-end and Holtby is streaky in net. I also think head coach Todd Reirden struggled to fill Trotz' shoes with a strong roster last year, so I like his chances even less with this team. Caps championship decline continues with a wildcard in 2019.
5. New York Rangers- The future looks good at MSG as the Blueshirts made the headlines more than any other team this off-season. First they luck out and score a #2 overall in the lottery, which happened to get them a superstar in the making, winger Kaapo Kakko. Then they trade for Jacob Trouba and top prospect Adam Fox. And finally, they land Artemi Panarin, the most sought after free agent this off-season. It was a dream Spring and Summer for the Rangers, but I still feel they have another year till they're ready to do some damage. NYR should be in the playoff conversation this year, but barring some breakout rookie performances, I'm not sure they have enough on this roster to make it. If you're a fan like me, think of this year as one last tryout for the 2020 Rangers team and focus on growth rather than instant gratification, good things come to those who wait.
6. Carolina Hurricanes- After a surprising playoff run for the Canes it wasn't the best off-season. Adam Fox refused to sign and was traded to the Rangers. The goalie situation didn't really get solved, and they ended up having to scramble to sign back Mrazek. A few role players were even swiped away by other teams in free agency (the Habs attempted to steal Aho away to Montreal, but failed, thankfully for Carolina fans). So the team is similar to the one that barely made the playoffs and got hot at the right time, minus a major trade of Justin Faulk to the Blues for Joel Edmundson and prospects/picks. Jake Gardiner will help will that void, and my problem doesn't lie with the defense, but rather the playmakers in the forward lines. It's a blue collar crew behind Aho, Staal, Teravainen, and Niederreiter (we'll see how much Svechnikov helps).
7. Pittsburgh Penguins- The Penguins are another team that's steadily declined after their cup runs. Last year they looked like a handicapped team when Crosby was out and I understand that when you lose your best player it hurts, but it hurts Pittsburgh more than most teams. They tried to get a little younger this off-season, trading cap space for talent with the Kessel for Galchenyuk trade and the Maatta for Kahun deal. These moves will be positive long term, but won't help the Penguins playoff odds this year in a competitive division. Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Hornqvist, and a few other vets will need throwback seasons if this team is going to threaten for another cup.
8. Columbus Blue Jackets- No team was hit harder by free agency than the Blue Jackets this Summer. Bobrovsky, Panarin, and Duchene all left, and Columbus' playoff hopes left with them. Joonas Korpisalo was a decent backup goalie, but should be one of the worst starters in the NHL this season. The franchise did bring in Gustav Nyquist to replace Panarin, but that's a drop off. This is still a team with youth and some really solid players like defenseman Seth Jones and forward Cam Atkinson, and in any other division they would not be ranked this low, but this is probably the best division in hockey this season and Columbus has too many glaring concerns for me.
Central Division:
1. Nashville Predators- One of the better teams in the Western Conference the last three years, the Preds have been on the doorstep many times, but have had postseason heartbreak. They got their guy when they signed Matt Duchene, adding to an already impressive forward group. Forsberg, Johansen, Arvidsson, Granlund, Turris, Craig Smith, and Bonino are some of the names that make up the starting twelve. The defense and goaltender have aged a bit, but still have a couple strong seasons left, a healthy one from Josi and Rinne will be a must. After another Central title, it's all about winning in the playoffs, something they've done with inconsistency.
2. Dallas Stars- The Stars were able to knock off the Predators in a 1st round upset last year, but then came up just short against the Blues. Even so, it was encouraging for a franchise that hadn't made it past the first round in some time. It looks like the Stars plan to strike while the iron is hot, bringing in multiple free agents veterans. The headliner is long-time Shark, Joe Pavelski, but some of the other names were Corey Perry and Andrej Sekera. Seguin and Benn are two of the most underrated forwards in the NHL every season, and this defense has a lot of upside in Klingberg, Lindell, and Heiskanen. Don't forget Alexander Radulov and Vezina finalist Ben Bishop. This is a definite playoff contender in a weak Western half, how far they go from there is up for debate.
3. St. Louis Blues- It was a slow off-season for the defending champs, and they weren't necessarily a championship team last year (they just clicked at the right time), until they traded for Justin Faulk a couple weeks ago. This was a huge move and told me St. Louis is all-in on a repeat. Faulk joins Pietrangelo, Parayko, Bouwmeester, Dunn, and Bortuzzo. That's a solid back line. The forward lines are deep (one of the main reasons for their playoff success), and Craig Berube is back as head coach... the main question will be how good Jordan Binnington is in year two.
4. Colorado Avalanche- The Avs are another big time sleeper pick this year. They contributed to the playoff mayhem in 2018 by knocking of the conference best Flames and this up-and-coming squad could easily keep it going. I wasn't crazy about some of the moves this off-season though, particularly the Kadri trade where they lost Barrie and Kerfoot to Toronto, and the decision to let Varlamov walk. Philipp Grubauer is now the lone man in the Colorado net, and that's still a question mark for me. A very young defense in front of him with Girard, Zadorov, Calle Rosen, and Cale Makar won't help if anyone falters early. I do think the Avs got a bit deeper on their forward lines with Donskoi, Burakovsky, and Nichushkin, but a lot of this team's overall success will come down to the play of Nathan MacKinnon.
5. Chicago Blackhawks- A few years ago Chicago made the decision to lock up Toews, Kane, Crawford, Keith, and Seabrook long-term. The rest of their cup team either left or was dealt away as the years went by, and a rebuild ensued around this core group. Over that time period Dylan Strome, Alex DeBrincat, Erik Gustafsson, Dominik Kubalik, Olli Maata, Calvin De Haan, and Alex Nylander are some of the future pieces they've acquired. Robin Lehner also joins Crawford in the crease this season. The Blackhawks are a well-run franchise, they have flipped prospects around and put themselves back on the right track, they might even sneak into the playoffs.
6. Minnesota Wild- The Wild decided they weren't talented enough to win last season and became sellers at the deadline. It was disappointing for a franchise that found themselves in the playoffs a good deal over the last few seasons. It looks like they will take a year or two and try to do a Rangers type swift-rebuild so that they can eventually get to a Stanley Cup (not just the first round or two of the playoffs). Devan Dubnyk is still a quality net-minder and the defense should be decent with veterans like Suter, Brodin, and Spurgeon as well as the younger Matt Dumba and Brad Hunt. This forward group just doesn't do it for me though, they are passed their prime and average in a league that is evolving everyday around it. The projected first line (Parise/Eric Staal/Zuccarello) exemplifies this and tells you all you need to know.
7. Winnipeg Jets- Trouble may be brewing in Winnipeg. This off-season saw Trouba, Tyler Myers, Ben Chiarot, and Brandon Tanev sent packing with some off the ice trouble for Dustin Byfuglien. I wish I noticed that before I drafted goaltender Connor Hellebuyck in fantasy the other night, this defense is an absolute mess right now and if Neal Pionk might really be part of the top pair on the blue-line, it may get worse before it gets better. It doesn't help that the bottom six forwards are collectively some of the worst I've seen. If Laine or Ehlers slumps as we've seen in the past, it'll be all on Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, and Kyle Connor to save this team.
Pacific Division:
1. Calgary Flames- Calgary's young core took the West by storm last year, surprising many with a dominant defense and elite top line (Monahan, Gaudreau, Lindholm). Are they the deepest team in the forward ranks? No, but they aren't the shallowest either. This blue-line really grabs my attention however, it isn't too different from 2018 but these players are all progressing with age (besides Giordano). Noah Hanifin, Travis Hamonic, TJ Brodie, Rasmus Andersson, and Oliver Kylington behind the captain will be the strength of this franchise for years to come. The goalie just needed to be serviceable last season and Cam Talbot or David Rittich should be able to do that in place of Mike Smith. The Flames will set fire to the Pacific again in 2019.
2. Vegas Golden Knights- Their top competition is probably Vegas, who has been coached and run well since their insertion into the league. It was mildly sad to see some of those pioneer players (who helped lead the expansion team to a Stanley Cup in their first season) go elsewhere this year (Haula, Carpenter, Colin Miller, Bellemare, Carr). These players weren't necessarily key losses, but that team was special... times change though. This is a quality team that still sports the line that gelled since day one (Karlsson, Marchessault, Reilly Smith) and has gained experience since then with Pacioretty and Stastny. Mark Stone was a tremendous talent to acquire not just for the playoff push last year but for this team's future. The D isn't filled with huge names but these players have proved to play well together whether it's the backbone (Deryk Engelland and Nate Schmidt) or the young talent that found a home in Vegas (Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb, and Jon Merrill). Fleury has even rejuvenated his career as the Knights stand tall.
3. Vancouver Canucks- One of the more dynamic young cores in all of hockey has begun to form in Vancouver. Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, and Bo Horvat are the main three of the future, but forgotten stars like Loui Eriksson, JT Miller, and Brandon Sutter make up the Canucks depth as well. The main loss was probably Markus Granlund, but I like the Micheal Ferland signing. He should help this team form it's identity as a gritty forward. The defense has some questions behind Edler and new addition Tyler Mylers. Nineteen year old Quinn Hughes will likely be asked to start, and on the second line no less, the third line is shakier. With Jacob Markstrom starting in net behind this D I think the Canucks will have to score a lot of goals if they want to be successful.
4. San Jose Sharks- Another franchise that probably watched their best chance at a cup pass them by in 2017 and '18. The Sharks are still heavy on the back end with Erik Karlsson now locked up long-term alongside Brent Burns, Brendan Dillon, and Vlasic (Martin Jones still in net). Where they have fallen off is in their forward depth. Call ups and fliers will fill in the gaps around Couture and Timo Meier, but there seem to be a lot of gaps. This San Jose team is one of the weakest on paper that I've seen from them in awhile, free agency period killed them this off-season.
5. Arizona Coyotes- The Yote's traded for Phil Kessel and Carl Soderberg this Summer, otherwise they didn't do much. Antti Raanta and Darcy Kuemper will continue to serve in net, a decent pair but nothing too exciting or ground-breaking there. The defensive group in front of them has gotten better. Ekman-Larsson has been a career man for Arizona and over time his supporting cast has become Goligoski, Demers, Hjalmarsson, and Chychrun. The forwards are a mix of young and old, it'll be interesting and important to see how Kessel blends into this group.
6. Edmonton Oilers- Connor McDavid is filthy (the Mike Trout of hockey), but the rest of his team has held him down during his tenure in the NHL. They swapped Milan Lucic for James Neal and brought in Granlund from Vancouver and Mike Smith to play goalie with Koskinen. Otherwise the changes weren't significant. This is a team that seems stuck in the middle. They have some younger players like Nurse, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Ethan Bear and some NHL journeymen like Kris Russell, Adam Larsson, Zack Kassian, Neal, and Chiasson. I don't think this team will be horrible but nothing tells me it will exceed expectations either unless McDavid plays at an MVP level.
7. Anaheim Ducks- Well, this team has fallen off a cliff in recent years. Getzlaf, Kesler, and Fowler are just about all that remain from their recent golden era. That golden era didn't produce a Stanley Cup either, and the Ducks eventually packed it in and restarted the process. With some promising youth in Maxime Comtois, Sam Steel, Troy Terry, Ondrej Kase, and Brendan Guhle, this team could surprise some people but isn't likely to threaten the playoffs again just yet. Ryan Miller and John Gibson are the goaltenders but I look for Gibson to finally claim this job for the long haul.
8. Los Angeles Kings- When will the Kings finally bottom out. It has been happening for years but there seems to be no end in sight after their Stanley Cup victories in '12 and '14. The best players on this team have not aged all that well in Kopitar and Kovalchuk (bust signing) and Dustin Brown and Jeff Carter. Drew Doughty is still a beast but only Alec Martinez remains from that prized defense that once played with him in front of Quick. It feels like LA is content with their titles and will just ride out these contracts until they expire and a large mass of draft picks eventually replaces them all (which won't happen in 2019).
Playoffs (very subject to change predictions):
4. Washington (lower WC) @ 1. Tampa Bay 3. Florida @ 1. Tampa Bay
3. Florida @ 2. Boston
4. Toronto @ 1. Tampa Bay
4. Toronto (higher WC) @ 1. NY Islanders
3. Philadelphia @ 2. New Jersey 4. Toronto @ 2. New Jersey
4. Colorado (higher WC) @ 1. Nashville 2. Dallas @ 1. Nashville
3. St. Louis @ 2. Dallas
2. Dallas @ 1. Calgary
4. Chicago (lower WC) @ 1. Calgary (President's Trophy)
3. Vancouver @ 2. Vegas 3. Vancouver @ 1. Calgary
Stanley Cup:
Dallas Stars @ Tampa Bay Lightning
I have the Stars making the cup behind a Vezina worthy performance by Ben Bishop in '19, and tremendous seasons from Benn, Radulov and Pavelski. Seguin will factor in the MVP ballot. The Lightning will be on a warpath though after the embarrassing 2018 flop, as of now I still don't think anyone can beat them if they play at their highest level. Vasilevskiy is a wall and I think Brayden Point will continue to progress and have a huge year alongside Kucherov and Stamkos. Also, time is running out for Tampa, this may be their last best shot at the ever-elusive Stanley Cup.
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