NHL '21: Melting Pot in the Central
- iAmMizz!
- Jan 10, 2021
- 11 min read
Updated: Jan 12, 2021
This NHL season will be like no other, and not just because of the ongoing pandemic. The fallout of COVID has changed much more than safety protocols and regulations, it has changed the entire structure of the league. The NHL will be split into four new regionalized divisions in 2021, and not only that, teams will exclusively play the opponents in their respectives divisions. The amount of games has also been condensed, from 82 to 56, with opening night set for January 13 (end date is set for May 8). As of now, all teams will be allowed to play in their home arenas, and roster sizes will be limited to 23 men, with a taxi squad of 4-6 alternates in case of an outbreak.
The 2021 Central Division is the NHL's biggest Frankenstein project of all. While the North is entirely Canadian, and the East and West at least kept their former conference ties, the Central became a total melting pot of conferences, divisions and regions (including most of the Southern teams). Quite frankly, it's a mess that looks more like a puzzle made of missing pieces than a proper division, but it will have to do for now. This group has eight teams, and each one will play the others eight times. The top four finishers will then face off in the Central bracket of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, where one will end up on the fast-track to the Semifinals. Let's take a look at the eight Central teams below:
Carolina Hurricanes
Chicago Blackhawks
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Detroit Red Wings
Florida Panthers
Nashville Predators
Tampa Bay Lightning
I'll rank each team one through eight based on my predictions for the 2021 season, citing offseason ins and outs (not including resignings), betting odds (FanDuel), and players to watch.
Here are the links to my other divisional predictions:
Disclaimer... Last year I correctly predicted a Tampa Bay victory over Dallas in the Stanley Cup before the season began, so I'm not totally clueless here, although some of my playoff predictions were much worse than others (cough cough, NJ Devils). If you don't believe me, here's the link.
8. Chicago Blackhawks (HC: Jeremy Colliton)
2020 Record: 32-30-8, 72 points, 7th in Central
Betting Odds to Win Central: +1800
Offseason Additions: Nikita Zadorov (D), Carl Soderberg (C), Mattias Janmark (C), Lucas Wallmark (C), Brandon Pirri (F), Anton Lindholm (D)
Offseason Losses: Corey Crawford (G), Olli Maata (D), Brandon Saad (F), Slater Koekkoek (D), Drake Caggiula (C), Dennis Gilbert (D), Dylan Sikura (C), Joseph Cramarossa (C), Ian McCoshen (D)
Unsigned Free Agents: Alex Fortin (F), T.J. Brennan (D), Jacob Nilsson (C)
Offseason Grade: D+
It was one step forward for the Blackhawks last year (with their upset in the extended playoffs), and now two steps back over the offseason. Trading away Corey Crawford made perfect sense. Not replacing him with anyone didn't, at least not for the 2021 season. To me, that was a clear sign from Chicago's front office that the rebuild is nowhere near done, and that the same rebuild is still the focus for this season. Sorry Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. Besides the goaltending disaster, where Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia are expected to start, the Blackhawks added some other younger fliers during the free agency period (Zadorov, Wallmark, Lindholm). Saad was another player that I'm not surprised they moved on from. This will be the second time that Chicago trades away the former Cup-winning winger. Overall though, this rebuild has just taken far too long, and Kirby Dach's recent injury doesn't help matters. Don't get me wrong, any fan would sign up for the success of three championships in under a decade, but the direction over the past five years has been far less certain for the Blackhawks. It had looked like they were starting to push back towards the postseason a year ago, but now it almost seems like Chicago may be back to square one.
7. Detroit Red Wings (HC: Jeff Blashill)
2020 Record: 17-49-5, 39 points, 8th in Atlantic
Betting Odds to Win Central: +3700
Offseason Additions: Thomas Greiss (G), Vladislav Namestnikov (C/F), Bobby Ryan (F), Troy Stecher (D), Jon Merrill (D), Marc Staal (D), Riley Barber (F), Kyle Criscuolo (F), Kevin Boyle (G), Mathias Brome (F/recalled from loan)
Offseason Losses: Dmytro Timashov (F), Justin Abdelkader (F/buy-out), Trevor Daley (D/retired)
Unsigned Free Agents: Jimmy Howard (G), Jonathan Ericsson (D), Brendan Perlini (F), Cody Goloubef (D), Kyle Brodziak (C), Chris Terry (F), Johan Franzen (F), Madison Bowey (D), Matt Puempel (F), Taro Hirose (F)
Offseason Grade: B
Call me crazy, but the Red Wings roster looks better than the Blackhawks right now. First off, they resign their future with a first line that still includes Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha. Then they replace Jimmy Howard with Thomas Greiss, a more reliable tendy to pair with Jonathan Bernier. They also shedded a bit of the veteran dead weight that they had carried the last few seasons. Daley retired, Ericsson and Franzen are off the books among others, Abdelkader was bought out. I was really surprised that they decided to take on another past-his-prime vet in Marc Staal, but I suppose he helps shore up the defense short term. Merrill and Stecher are the more intriguing signings on D. Ryan and Namestnikov also join Detroit as sort of mercenary forwards that could provide depth in 2021. Mathias Brome is the player to watch here though. The Swedish national will make his first appearance with the Red Wings (recalled from loan), and the rumor is that he's impressed in camp. Detroit won't threaten for a playoff spot, but they may leap-frog Chicago as they look a little more game-ready right now.
6. Florida Panthers (HC: Joel Quenneville)
2020 Record: 35-26-8, 78 points, 4th in Atlantic
Betting Odds to Win Central: +900
Offseason Additions: Alexander Wennberg (C), Radko Gudas (D), Patric Hornqvist (F), Anthony Duclair (F), Vinnie Hinostroza (C), Carter Verhaeghe (C), Markus Nutivaara (D), Kevin Connauton (D), Ryan Lomberg (F)
Offseason Losses: Evgenii Dadonov (F), Mike Hoffman (C/F), Mike Matheson (D), Erik Haula (C), Lucas Wallmark (C), Mark Pysyk (D), Colton Sceviour (C/F), Josh Brown (D), Dominic Toninato (C), Dryden Hunt (F)
Unsigned Free Agents: Brian Boyle (C), Aleksi Saarela (C), Henrik Borgström (C), Jack Rodewald (F), Danick Martel (F), Paul Thompson (F)
Offseason Grade: C–
Florida took a swing and a miss last season with Joel Quenneville at the helm. Sergei Bobrovsky was average and the defense in front of him was poor, leading to way too many goals against (fourth most in Eastern Conference). They did seem to focus on getting more gritty and defensive this offseason (signing Gudas, trading for Hornqvist, and letting Dadonov and Hoffman walk in free agency), but now their offsense is lacking a bit. I'm also not sure this Panthers team can completely switch their mentality in this short a span, so will the swaps in styles work? If not, Duclair is one offensively focused sniper that they acquired, along with playmaking center Wennberg, but does that combination compare to Dadonov/Hoffman? They also lose penalty killer and grinder Erik Haula. A lot of new personnel for Florida, but I'm not sure those moves went in the right direction as a whole... or any direction. The middle portion of this Central division shapes up to be competitive, but the Panthers might not have what it takes to make the cut.
5. Columbus Blue Jackets (HC: John Tortorella)
2020 Record: 33-22-15, 81 points, 5th in Metropolitan
Betting Odds to Win Central: +850
Offseason Additions: Max Domi (C/F), Mikko Koivu (C), Michael Del Zotto (D), Alexandre Texier (C/recalled from loan), Gavin Bayreuther (D)
Offseason Losses: Alexander Wennberg (C), Josh Anderson (F), Ryan Murray (D), Markus Nutivaara (D), Devin Shore (C), Marko Dano (C)
Unsigned Free Agents: Jakob Lilja (F), Gabriel Carlsson (D), Ryan MacInnis (C), Dillon Simpson (D)
Offseason Grade: C
This Blue Jackets roster never has many names that you'll remember, but you can expect that it will be defensively sound, well-conditioned, and incredibly pesky under John Tortorella. That's the exact strategy that took the Metro by storm last season. This high-energy team can skate with anyone, and prospect Alexandre Texier is the newest unknown that will likely turn heads with Columbus. I wasn't expecting the Wennberg buy-out at age 26, but they replace him swiftly with Domi, shipping Josh Anderson away in the process. Koivu and Del Zotto add experience to a roster that doesn't have a ton (Gustav Nyquist also does this when healthy), and Seth Jones (+10 in 2020 with an average time on ice of 25-plus minutes) leading the defense gives almost any franchise a leg up. My question is whether or not they can repeat their 2020 success at both goaltender and overall (no more element of surprise). Tortorella is a tremendous coach, but his message has faded in previous assignments. I could easily see Columbus making the top four here, but I could also see them falling just short.
4. Carolina Hurricanes (HC: Rod Brind'Amour)
2020 Record: 38-25-5, 81 points, 4th in Metropolitan
Betting Odds to Win Central: +400
Offseason Additions: Jesper Fast (F), Joakim Ryan (D), Sheldon Rempal (F), Drew Shore (C), Jeremy Bracco (F), Antoine Bibeau (G)
Offseason Losses: Joel Edmundson (D), Sami Vatanen (D), Justin Williams (F/retired), Trevor van Riemsdyk (D), Anton Forsberg (G), Callum Booth (G)
Unsigned Free Agents: Brian Gibbons (C)
Offseason Grade: D+
The Canes have proven themselves as contenders in recent years, but they were unable to build off their Eastern Conference Finals loss in 2019, as they were defeated by the Bruins again in 2020. This team is still really young, with a very promising future, but have they done enough this offseason to make a real difference? They lose Edmundson and Vatanen, who were key after Dougie Hamilton went down heading into the postseason, and Justin Williams also retires (a big leader on this Carolina team two seasons ago). Fast is the perfect replacement for Williams, he can aggravate opposing defenses and log solid minutes on the penalty kill, but do they have enough defensive depth? Joakim Ryan joins a crew with Jacob Slavin, Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, Jake Gardiner and Haydn Fleury behind Hamilton. Granted, that's a nice group, but it may not be a Stanley Cup group if the Canes don't bolster it. They're also still weak in the net, with Petr Mrazek and James Reimer trading runs of success. The strength of this team is still its creative forwards and centers, lead by Sebastian Aho (66 points), Teuvo Teravainen (63 points), Andrei Svechnikov (61 points) and of course veteran Jordan Staal. As I said, the future is bright, but I wish Carolina made more of an investment in the present.
3. Tampa Bay Lightning (HC: Jon Cooper)
2020 Record: 43-21-6, 92 points, 2nd in Atlantic
Betting Odds to Win Central: +140
Offseason Additions: Andreas Borgman (D), Boo Nieves (C), Chris Gibson (G), Marian Gaborik (F/IR), Anders Nilsson (G/IR)
Offseason Losses: Kevin Shattenkirk (D), Zach Bogosian (D), Brayden Coburn (D), Cedric Paquette (C), Carter Verhaeghe (C), Scott Wedgewood (G), Nikita Kucherov (F/IR)
Unsigned Free Agents: Cory Conacher (C), Michael Condon (G), Patrick Sieloff (D), Cameron Gaunce (D)
Offseason Grade: D–
Cap-stretched and injured off their long and glorious Cup run, Tampa Bay now faces an extremely tough repeat campaign. Not even taking into account the losses, the Lightning will be subjected to a quick turnaround after their championship win just three short months ago. It's true that Dallas will have just as short a turnaround, but the Stars are motivated by defeat, while the Lightning may face the hangover of success. The defense has also been stripped, with Shattenkirk, Bogosian and Coburn as cap casualties. Longtime checking line center Paquette was also lost in the process. All this might be mangeable if Nikita Kucherov had not already been deemed out for the entire season. This team is still ultra-talented with Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal and Brayden Point leading the attack, don't get me wrong, but I could see them slipping to third or fourth in the Central standings as they attempt to regain their strength.
2. Nashville Predators (HC: John Hynes)
2020 Record: 35-26-8, 78 points, 5th in Central
Betting Odds to Win Central: +850
Offseason Additions: Mark Borowiecki (D), Luke Kunin (C), Erik Haula (C), Nick Cousins (C), Brad Richardson (F), Matthew Benning (D), Tyler Lewington (D), Kasimir Kaskisuo (G)
Offseason Losses: Dan Hamhuis (D/retired), Kyle Turris (C), Craig Smith (F), Nick Bonino (C), Austin Watson (F), Miikka Salomaki (F), Korbinian Holzer (D), Colin Blackwell (C), Daniel Carr (F), Steven Santini (D), Frederick Gaudreau (C), Troy Grosenick (G)
Unsigned Free Agents: Matt Donovan (D)
Offseason Grade: C+
This Preds core from their postseason runs a couple seasons ago is still in decent shape. Roman Josi (65 points, +22 on ice) is now leading the show on defense, with Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm still by his side. The key names in the forward lines are still Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene, Viktor Arvidsson and Mikael Granlund. This team didn't really change much in terms of core, it's the supporting pieces that totally changed this year. Veterans that didn't really mesh last season like Turris, Hamhuis and Bonino were sent packing along with some long-time Nashville favorites like Craig Smith and Austin Watson. Replacing them are similar, but younger, assets like Borowiecki, Haula, Kunin and Benning. Vets like Cousins and Richardson aid in filling any void left by the exits. The Predators didn't do anything crazy this offseason, but I actually liked the minor retooling and think the results will be positive under a full season of John Hynes as HC.
1. Dallas Stars (HC: Rick Bowness)
2020 Record: 37-24-8, 82 points, 3rd in Central
Betting Odds to Win Central: +490
Offseason Additions: Mark Pysyk (D), Julius Honka (D)
Offseason Losses: Mattias Janmark (C), Corey Perry (F), Curtis McKenzie (F), Martin Hanzal (C/retired), Gavin Bayreuther (D)
Unsigned Free Agents: Roman Polak (D), Dillon Heatherington (D)
Offseason Grade: C
I liked the Dallas Stars a lot last year, but it took them longer than I thought it would to hit their stride. Little did I realize, they ended up finding their best game without netminder Ben Bishop, who may still be injured to start the new season. Never fear, this defense is the real challenge for the opposition, with star talent like Miro Heiskanen, John Klingberg and Esa Lindell entering their prime in unison. Veteran Andrej Sekera, Pysyk and Jamie Oleksiak close out a stout top six. The Stars also have budding potential on their forward lines, with Denis Gurianov and Roope Hintz breaking out during the Stanley Cup run. Joe Pavelski, Alexander Radulov and (of course) Jamie Benn provide the perfect experience and leadership to supplement them. Dallas didn't do much over the offseason, but they didn't really need to. This roster is already physical and unforgiving, and I think that toughness will lead them to the top of the Central standings in 2021. Even without Tyler Seguin to start the year, I feel the best is yet to come for the Stars.
Outside of the East, this has to be the second toughest division in the NHL in 2021. The East is the deepest, but the Central is really strong upfront with its first five or six teams. I mean when you have the two teams that went to the Stanley Cup the year prior in the same division the following season, that's saying something. Not to mention darkhorse favorites like Columbus and Carolina, and a former juggernaut from a not-too-distant past in Nashville. It will be a dogfight in the Central, no doubt about it, and this group's playoff results may not end up being as predictable as some of the other divisions.
CENTRAL PLAYOFFS
(4) Carolina @ (1) Dallas
Dallas should get healthier as the year progresses, but they may also become exhausted after a long year for the franchise. Carolina's roster isn't good enough right now, but I expect them to bulk up again at the deadline and heat up late. The youthful Canes catch an over-worked Stars team by surprise and upset Dallas is the opening round of the Central playoffs. Carolina in 6.
(3) Tampa Bay @ (2) Nashville
Tampa Bay may slip in the standings, but so long as they make the postseason they are as dangerous as ever. Nashville can outlast them in regular season play, but they won't beat them in a head-to-head series. The Lightning oust the Preds in 7.
CENTRAL FINALS
(4) Carolina @ (3) Tampa Bay
Some people may have had the exact same Central Finals as me, even if they took a totally different route to get there (rather than a 3/4 seeding matchup). I really do believe the Stars are the best team in this division, but upsets do occur in the NHL playoffs, and this is a division that I could see going off the rails. Similarly to Dallas, Tampa will be ragged by the time we get to this series. If they can get past Nashville, I'm not sure they can keep their energy up against a primed Carolina team that has plenty of exuberance to go around. Assuming that the Hurricanes make the necessary win-now moves at the trade deadline, I think they have what it takes to shock this group of Stanley Cup hopefuls and favorites. Aho becomes a legitimate superstar in 2021 as the Canes dethrone the Lightning in 6.
Final Four Central Representative: Carolina Hurricanes
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