NHL '21: Three-Way Standoff Out West
- iAmMizz!
- Jan 8, 2021
- 11 min read
Updated: Jan 12, 2021
This NHL season will be like no other, and not just because of the ongoing pandemic. The fallout of COVID has changed much more than safety protocols and regulations, it has changed the entire structure of the league. The NHL will be split into four new regionalized divisions in 2021, and not only that, teams will exclusively play the opponents in their respectives divisions. The amount of games has also been condensed, from 82 to 56, with opening night set for January 13 (end date is set for May 8). As of now, all teams will be allowed to play in their home arenas, and roster sizes will be limited to 23 men, with a taxi squad of 4-6 alternates in case of an outbreak.
The 2021 Western division is basically a combination of the former Pacific and Central, minus the Canadian teams and a couple of mid-American stragglers. This group has eight teams, and each one will play the others eight times. The top four finishers will then face off in the Western bracket of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, where one will earn a ticket to the Semifinals. Let's take a look at the eight Western teams below:
Anaheim Ducks
Arizona Coyotes
Colorado Avalanche
Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota Wild
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Vegas Golden Knights
I'll rank each team one through eight based on my predictions for the 2021 season, citing offseason ins and outs (not including resignings), betting odds (FanDuel), and players to watch.
Here are the links to my other divisional predictions:
Disclaimer... Last year I correctly predicted a Tampa Bay victory over Dallas in the Stanley Cup before the season began, so I'm not totally clueless here, although some of my playoff predictions were much worse than others (cough cough, NJ Devils). If you don't believe me, here's the link.
8. Anaheim Ducks (HC: Dallas Eakins)
2020 Record: 29-33-9, 67 points, 6th in Pacific
Betting Odds to Win West: +1800
Offseason Additions: Kevin Shattenkirk (D), Derek Grant (F), Vinni Lettieri (C), Andy Welinski (D)
Offseason Losses: Michael Del Zotto (D), Erik Gudbranson (D), Chris Wideman (D), Kyle Criscuolo (F), Matt Irwin (D), Kiefer Sherwood (F)
Unsigned Free Agents: Patrick Eaves (F), Chris Mueller (C), Blake Pietila (F), Joel Persson (D), Justin Kloos
Offseason Grade: C
Here's a franchise with absolutely no juice right now. The once-great core of Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Cam Fowler and others has aged poorly and harshly. The difference between Anaheim and other franchises like the Kings or Senators is that their future doesn't seem all that bright either, at least not in 2021. This roster is filled with has-beens and journeymen, rather than prospects and rookie talent. I know they have a promising goaltender in John Gibson, along with a couple younger stars here and there, but even these guys are wasting their prime on a nothing team. That's why the Kevin Shattenkirk signing made no sense to me. Are they bringing him in just to compete? So that they don't embarrass themselves? He's turning 32, and this team is most likely not going anywhere during his tenure. Especially when he's the only player they bring in. The Ducks should attempt to trade away as many veterans as possible this season and full on rebuild with picks and cap space. The lower they finish this season the better, and I have them finishing last in what is easily the league's worst division.
7. Los Angeles Kings (HC: Todd McLellan)
2020 Record: 29-35-6, 64 points, 7th in Pacific
Betting Odds to Win West: +2400
Offseason Additions: Olli Maata (D), Andreas Athanasiou (C), Lias Andersson (C), Quinton Byfield (C/draft), Mark Alt (D), Troy Grosenick (G)
Offseason Losses: Trevor Lewis (C), Joakim Ryan (D), Paul LaDue (D), Sheldon Rempal (F)
Unsigned Free Agents: Tim Schaller (C), Ben Hutton (D), Mario Kempe (C)
Offseason Grade: B
As I just mentioned, the West is not balanced at all. There are three very good teams, all of which are considered Cup contenders as of now. Then there's one or two bad teams, and three or four really bad teams that fill out the group. Los Angeles is still one of those really bad teams, but they are headed in a better direction than a team like Anaheim. For starters, the Kings at least have two Stanley Cups to hang their hat on. They can be awful for awhile (and they have been), and none of their fans would bat an eye. The main difference is that the Kings have committed to a rebuild. Aside from Drew Doughty, Jonathan Quick, Andre Kopitar and Dustin Brown (who they're stuck with), LAK is almost entirely next generation players. They push they're prospects right into the deep end and allow them to sink or swim every season. Next up is 2020 draft pick Quinton Byfield, a center from Ontario. They also acquired Olli Maata from Chicago, who's only 26, and failed Rangers first rounder Lias Andersson (22 years old). There is a clear emphasis on youth and the future with a head coach who ironically is as experienced as they come. I'll assume McLellan, like the Kings, is in this for the long haul.
6. Arizona Coyotes (HC: Rick Tocchet)
2020 Record: 33-29-8, 74 points, 5th in Pacific
Betting Odds to Win West: +1400
Offseason Additions: Derick Brassard (C), Tyler Pitlick (C/F), Johan Larsson (F), Drake Caggiula (C), John Hayden (C), Frederik Gauthier (C)
Offseason Losses: Taylor Hall (F), Derek Stepan (C), Carl Soderberg (C), Brad Richardson (F), Vincent Hinostroza (C), Michael Grabner (F)
Unsigned Free Agents: Beau Bennett (F), Markus Hannikainen (F) Offseason Grades: D+
The Yote's were a fringe playoff team with Taylor Hall last season, a former Hart Trophy winner. He amounted 52 points in 65 games with Arizona. Now they find themselves without him, and they didn't really bother to replace the superstar. Their top offseason gets were probably Pitlick and Brassard, both role players at best. They'll fill the void left by Stepan and Soderberg before they even sniff Hall's skates. The rest of the acquisitions were third and fourth line talent. The Coyotes do have developing stars that are already on the roster, like Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller (45 and 44 points in 2020) among others, and they even have a semi-bulked up defense that has carried over from last year's playoff berth (Jason Demers, Alex Goligoski and of course long-time Yote Ekman-Larsson to name a few), but they don't have what it takes to make the postseason without their Hall pass. We already know that deep down, and this year I expect Arizona will prove it.
5. San Jose Sharks (HC: Bob Boughner)
2020 Record: 29-36-5, 63 points, 8th in Pacific
Betting Odds to Win West: +2200
Offseason Additions: Devan Dubnyk (G), Ryan Donato (F), Patrick Marleau (F), Matt Nieto (F), Kurtis Gabriel (F), Jaycob Megna (D)
Offseason Losses: Joe Thornton (C), Melker Karlsson (F), Brandon Davidson (D), Jonny Brodzinski (C), Anthony Greco (F), Aaron Dell (G)
Unsigned Free Agents: Tim Heed (D), Dalton Prout (D), Lukas Radil (C), Danil Yurtaykin (F)
Offseason Grade: C+
Make no mistake, I do not think the Sharks are "making a comeback," but I do recognize that this team had a littany of injuries to their stars in 2020 (Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl and Evander Kane to name a few). With how poor the rest of this division is, the return of those stars alone could threaten a playoff berth... or at the very least jump them up to fifth in the standings. Unfortunately for fans, San Jose didn't do much to bolster their current situation. They also have not elected to fully rebuild their core, leaving them in a sort of purgatory in 2021 (unless of course they sneak into a lousy Western four seed). A pair of trades with Minnesota are the lone bright spots in an otherwise boring offseason for the Sharks. Dubnyk's depth does support Martin Jones' inconsistency in net, and Donato is a decent add to get younger, but San Jose must fully commit to going in one direction or the other. Anything else is just a waste of time.
4. Minnesota Wild (HC: Dean Evason)
2020 Record: 35-27-7, 77 points, 6th in Central
Betting Odds to Win West: +1400
Offseason Additions: Cam Talbot (G), Marcus Johansson (C), Nick Bjustad (C), Nick Bonino (C), Dakota Mermis (D), Andrew Hammond (G), Nico Sturm (C), Joseph Cramarossa (C), Ian McCoshen (D)
Offseason Losses: Eric Staal (C), Devan Dubnyk (G), Mikko Koivu (C), Alex Galchenyuk (C/F), Ryan Donato (C), Luke Kunin (C), Sam Anas (C)
Unsigned Free Agents: J.T. Brown (F), Michael Liambas (F), Taylor Beck (F), Brennan Menell (D)
Offseason Grades: C
The Wild made a whole bunch of trades and changes, but somehow they seemed to have remained exactly the same in the process. For example, they replaced one average goaltender with another (Talbot for Dubnyk). They also ditched almost all their centers, including veteran Eric Staal (47 points last season), and replaced them with any entirely new group. At times they got younger in these exchanges, like with Johansson or Bjustad over Koivu, and at other times they got older losing a Donato or Galchenyuk in favor of Bonino. They did part ways with a couple hefty contracts, which is a plus, but that won't help them much in 2021. No, just circles and circles that in the end lead to the exact same result (or so I think), Minnesota either missing the playoffs or getting sent home as a first round knockout.
3. St. Louis Blues (HC: Craig Berube)
2020 Record: 42-19-10, 94 points, 1st in Central
Betting Odds to Win West: +550
Offseason Additions: Torey Krug (D), Mike Hoffman (F/C), Kyle Clifford (C), Curtis McKenzie (F), Steven Santini (D), Sam Anas (C), Jon Gillies (G)
Offseason Losses: Alex Pietrangelo (D), Alex Steen (F/retired), Jake Allen (G), Derrick Pouliot (D), Andreas Borgman (D), Jordan Nolan (C), Mike Vecchione (C)
Unsigned Free Agents: Jake Dotchin (D), Nick Lappin (F), Jay Bouwmeester (D/IR), Troy Brouwer (F/IR)
Offseason Grades: C
As expected, the Blues have gone through some slight growing pains since their championship run (although they did still finish first in the Central last year despite that). Bouwmeester will likely be forced to retire and Steen has followed suit. They have also lost their captain and rock on defense over the last 12 seasons, Alex Pietrangelo. Replacing him is Torey Krug, talented in his own right, but different in terms of style and size. I don't expect the defense or depth to be a problem though. There are two key factors for St. Louis in 2021 if you ask me, goaltending (or more specifically Jordan Binnington) and Mike Hoffman. The Blues traded away their Binnington safety net, Jake Allen, who outplayed the Stanley Cup starter by a significant margin in 2020. Is Binnington the real deal? Or was his championship run fools gold for St. Louis? Hoffman is even more intriguing. The ultra-talented free agent has a tendency to wear out his welcome in locker rooms. He has not technically signed with the Blues yet, but he's practicing with them in camp and it seems likely at this point. The left winger is a pure scorer and could do wonders for St. Louis if he can keep his personality in line. This could be an incredible acquisition for the Blues, or a disastrous one.
2. Colorado Avalanche (HC: Jared Bednar)
2020 Record: 42-20-8, 92 points, 2nd in Central
Betting Odds to Win West: +140
Offseason Additions: Devon Toews (D), Brandon Saad (F), Mikka Salomaki (F), Dennis Gilbert (D), Mike Vecchione (C), Kiefer Sherwood (F)
Offseason Losses: Nikita Zadorov (D), Vlad Namestnikov (F/C), Michael Hutchinson (G), Matt Nieto (F), Colin Wilson (C/retired), Mark Barberio (D), Anton Lindholm (D), Mark Alt (D), Kevin Connauton (D), Antoine Bibeau (G)
Unsigned Free Agents: Vladislav Kamenev (F)
Offseason Grade: B–
Colorado spent most of their offseason bringing back pieces from the exciting 2020 team we all came to know and love. They also made a couple of creative deals to bolster to their core. The biggest surprise was the trade for defenseman Devon Toews. The Islanders couldn't pay the flourishing 26-year old, so the Avs gladly volunteered to foot the bill. Toews was a surprising success story out of Quinnipiac, so we'll see if he can continue his stellar play outside of Barry Trotz system. They also added playoff experience via Brandon Saad, who was a part of the Blackhawks mini-dynasty that won a few Cups. Otherwise, it's pretty much the same Colorado team as last year taking another run at a championship. This young unit led by Nathan MacKinnon (93 points in 2019-20) is another year older and wiser though, and that should not be discounted as we eventually journey towards the postseason.
1. Vegas Golden Knights (HC: Peter DeBoer)
2020 Record: 39-24-8, 86 points, 1st in Pacific
Betting Odds to Win West: +175
Offseason Additions: Alex Pietrangelo (D), Carl Dahlstrom (D), Dylan Sikura (C), Tomas Jurco (F), Danny O'Regan (C)
Offseason Losses: Nate Schmidt (D), Paul Stastny (C), Jon Merrill (D), Nick Cousins (C), Brandon Pirri (F), Deryk Engelland (D/retired), Curtis McKenzie (F), Jaycob Megna (D), Garret Sparks (G)
Unsigned Free Agents: Valentin Zykov (F), Brett Lernout (D)
Offseason Grade: C–
The Avalanche are currently the narrow betting favorite, but my money is on Vegas to take the division. Don't let this quiet offseason fool you, the Golden Knights are built to last. They also have a tendency to extend the players that they trade for during playoff runs (Mark Stone, Alec Martinez, most recently netminder Robin Lehner), which doesn't always show up in an offseason report (or grade). This trade and extend strategy has successfully solidified the early pedigree of this franchise, making them a yearly powerhouse ever since. The identity that fueled Vegas' intitial Cup run is also still intact, despite a coaching change among other managerial adjustments (as well as the loss of players like Nate Schmidt that have been with the team since the beginning). The reality is, replacements like Peter DeBoer, Pietrangelo and Max Pacioretty are just plain better for the most part. There are still a bunch of holdovers from the innaugural team anyhow, and the right improvements can't hurt because, well, the Knights never actually won their first championship. The reason I have this team beating out the Blues and Avs is their lack of flaws. They are deep at every position. They have a mix of experience and younger talent. They have scorers and they have grinders. They have playmakers and they have goons. And lastly, they have two goaltenders that might both be better than any one goaltender on St. Louis or Colorado.
As I stated numerous times, this is probably the worst division in the NHL during this COVID-influenced season. The West-most teams seemed to represent the worst of the Pacific and Central for the most part, aside from the aforementioned three studs who should soar to the top of the standings against this mess of opponents. This creates a Western standoff between the trio, one that will probably come down to which team dominates the other five the best (head-to-head matchups are of course crucial all the same). I think Vegas looks like the most consistent roster out there, which is why they're getting my support.
WEST PLAYOFFS
(4) Minnesota @ (1) Vegas
You already know how much I love Vegas this year and since I pretty much deemed Minnesota the "best of the worst," I won't waste anyone's time here. Knights in 5.
(3) St. Louis @ (2) Colorado
This is a tough one to decide here in January, and I could see it going either way to be honest. The Avalanche have the higher ceiling and more talent generally speaking, but we've seen how stifling the Blues can be once it all comes together. At this point in the season however, there are more uncertainties with St. Louis than Colorado. I'll go with the home team, Avs in 7.
WEST FINALS
(2) Colorado @ (1) Vegas
This is a series good enough to be a Western Conference Finals. I mean, it nearly was one in 2020. The Golden Knights did close out the Canucks in game seven to reach the WCF, but Colorado fell just short losing to Dallas in a game seven of their own. As fate would have it, a Western Divisional Finals could be in their near future instead, as the two favorites in the "new" West. As hard as Blues/Avalanche was to decide, Knights/Avalanche is harder. I picked Vegas to win the division for a reason, I do think they are the better team over the course of an entire season... but are they the better team in a seven-game series? Eventually, I do think this Avs roster gets hot at the right time, but I also believe this Vegas team has what it takes to win it all in 2021. I would flip a coin if I had one, but instead I'll trust my gut and say the Golden Knights' goaltenders get the best of the Colorado attackers in the end. I know, very chalk playoff predictions this time, but I'm going Vegas in 7 anyway.
Final Four West Representative: Vegas Golden Knights
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