NHL '21: The King of the 'Canadian' North
- iAmMizz!
- Jan 8, 2021
- 11 min read
Updated: Jan 12, 2021
This NHL season will be like no other, and not just because of the ongoing pandemic. The fallout of COVID has changed much more than safety protocols and regulations, it has changed the entire structure of the league. The NHL will be split into four new regionalized divisions in 2021, and not only that, teams will exclusively play the opponents in their respectives divisions. The amount of games has also been condensed, from 82 to 56, with opening night set for January 13 (end date is set for May 8). As of now, all teams will be allowed to play in their home arenas, and roster sizes will be limited to 23 men, with a taxi squad of 4-6 alternates in case of an outbreak.
The division that has probably gotten the most buzz since the announcement of restructuring has been the North, which is an entirely Canadian division. This group has one less team than the other three, so each competitor will play the others either nine or 10 times this season (rather than eight). The top four finishers will then face off in the Northern bracket of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, where one will be crowned King of the North. Let's take a look at the seven Northern teams below:
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs
Vancouver Canucks
Winnipeg Jets
I'll rank each team one through seven based on my predictions for the 2021 season, citing offseason ins and outs (not including resignings), betting odds (FanDuel), and players to watch.
Here are the links to my other divisional predictions:
Disclaimer... Last year I correctly predicted a Tampa Bay victory over Dallas in the Stanley Cup before the season began, so I'm not totally clueless here, although some of my playoff predictions were much worse than others (cough cough, NJ Devils). If you don't believe me, here's the link.
7. Ottawa Senators (HC: D.J. Smith)
2020 Record: 25-34-12, 62 points, 7th in Atlantic
Betting Odds to Win North: +4800
Offseason Additions: Matt Murray (G), Evgenii Dadonov (F), Tim Stützle (F/draft), Alex Galchenyuk (C/F), Derek Stepan (C), Erik Gudbranson (D), Brayden Coburn (D), Cedric Paquette (F), Austin Watson (F), Josh Brown (D), Logan Shaw (F), Micheal Haley (F)
Offseason Losses: Craig Anderson (G), Anthony Duclair (F), Mark Borowiecki (D), Bobby Ryan (F), Ryan Callahan (F/retired), Jonathan Gruden (F), Marian Gaborik (F/IR), Anders Nilsson (G/IR)
Unsigned Free Agents: Mikkel Boedker (F), Morgan Klimchuk (F), Jordan Szwarz (F), Andreas Englund (D)
Offseason Grade: B
This offseason has definitely been a step in the right direction for Ottawa, and in a less competitive division the Sens may have jumped out of the bottom spot and surprised a team or two, but it's hard to find the franchise that they surpass in the North this year. Matt Murray will man the pipes now, a slight upgrade over Anderson, with Dadonov (47 points in 2019-20) and Galchenyuk joining forwards like Brady Tkachuk and Connor Brown. Stepan, Paquette and Watson also add much needed experience and grit to an otherwise youthful core. Top draft pick Tim Stützle (3rd overall pick) is the player to watch here, as the rookie should start right out of the gates and get his first taste of NHL action this season. Jake Sanderson (another top five pick) could see some time on defense as well, the area that the Senators are most thin. They bring in veterans Gudbranson and Coburn to help carry the load on the ice, but this defense looks shaky behind its top line (Thomas Chabot and Nikita Zaitsev). I expect Ottawa to be in hunt, and much more lively than in recent years with potential throughout the lineup, but this roster still seems like it's a year or two away.
6. Winnipeg Jets (HC: Paul Maurice)
2020 Record: 37-28-6, 80 points, 4th in Central
Betting Odds to Win North: +800
Offseason Additions: Paul Stastny (C), Derek Forbot (D), Nate Thompson (C), Dominic Toninato (F/C), Trevor Lewis (F)
Offseason Losses: Dmitry Kulikov (D), Cody Eakin (C), Mark Letestu (C/retired), Anthony Bitetto (D), Carl Dahlstrom (D), Logan Shaw (F), Seth Griffith (F)
Unsigned Free Agents: Jack Roslovic (F), Nick Shore (C), Gabriel Bourque (F), Cameron Schilling (D), Dustin Byfuglien (D/F)
Offseason Grade: C+
Winnipeg's main issue last season was that they were top-heavy, and that didn't change all too much this offseason. The big addition was Stastny's return, but let's be honest, the former top centerman isn't the player he once was (entering his age 35 campaign). I actually had the Jets missing the postseason at the start of 2019-20 as one of my surprise disappointments, but they ended up finishing better than I thought they would. Without a career season from goaltender Connor Hellebuyck though, that probably doesn't happen, and it's hard to rely on a Vezina winning performance two years in a row. The defense has not really improved either, one could even argue that it has gotten worse as the Jets exchange Kulikov for Forbot and lose some depth behind the top two pairings. The core of this franchise (the top six forwards and its goalie) is filthy, no doubt about it, but history has proven that this core will only get Winnipeg so far without the proper help around it.
5. Montreal Canadiens (HC: Claude Julien)
2020 Record: 31-31-9, 71 points, 5th in Atlantic
Betting Odds to Win North: +460
Offseason Additions: Tyler Toffoli (F), Joel Edmundson (D), Josh Anderson (F), Jake Allen (G), Corey Perry (F), Michael Frolik (F)
Offseason Losses: Max Domi (C/F), Keith Kinkaid (G)
Unsigned Free Agents: Dale Weise (F), Karl Alzner (D), Christian Folin (D), Charles Hudon (F)
Offseason Grades: B+
Where Winnipeg relies on skill, the Habs rely on grit, and I give them the season-long edge over the Jets based on that. Montreal also might have had the best offseason out of any Canadian team, bringing in Toffoli, Edmundson, Perry and Jake Allen while also trading Domi for Anderson and losing borderline zero in free agency. Despite all that, I don't really understand the Canadiens' betting odds (which have them tied for the 2nd best chance to win the North). I know that Claude Julien is probably the most experienced coach in this division, and I know that Carey Price is still the most experienced goalie, but am I crazy to say that neither really scare me anymore? Price is getting older every game, and while Allen is a better number two than what they had last year, he's pretty streaky in his own right. Julien also has not won much since his time in Boston. The core offensive skaters don't impress me as much as the other teams in this grouping either. Toffoli provides depth, but Brendan Gallagher, Tomas Tatar, Jonathan Drouin, Phillip Danault and Nick Suzuki don't compare to what the Leafs, Canucks, Flames, Oilers and even the Jets have to offer. The one area I do find the Habs exceptionally sturdy is on the blue line. Shea Weber and Jeff Petry haven't lost a step yet, and Edmundson joins Victor Mete, Ben Chiarot and top prospect Alexander Romanov. If the goaltending holds up and this team finds some goals, they could jump up a few spots in the standings and bump a more talented team from the playoffs, but for now I'm keeping Montreal on the outside looking in.
4. Edmonton Oilers (HC: Dave Tippett)
2020 Record: 37-25-9, 83 points, 2nd in Pacific
Betting Odds to Win North: +460
Offseason Additions: Tyson Barrie (D), Dominik Kahun (C), Kyle Turris (C), Slater Koekkoek (D), Seth Griffith (F), Alan Quine (C), Jesse Puljujarvi (F), Devin Shore (C), Anton Forsberg (G)
Offseason Losses: Andreas Athanasiou (C), Mike Green (D/retired), Markus Granlund (C), Matthew Benning (D), Tomas Jurco (F), Riley Sheahan (F), Josh Currie (C)
Unsigned Free Agents: Brad Malone (F), Ryan Kuffner (F), Keegan Lowe (D) Offseason Grades: C+
This looks like a great offseason on paper, but I left out that fact that Oscar Klefbom will miss the entire 2021 season. That means that Barrie is HIS replacement, not Green's or Benning's (which would have been a huge upgrade of course). Obviously Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins keep Edmonton very relevant as long as they're on the ice, but you really can't expect them to repeat the same ridiculous numbers they put up in 2020. They need help, and I do applaud the additions of Kahun and Turris, which does provide some. This should give the Oilers more of a punch outside of the top six forwards, but I would have liked to see this goaltending pair improved upon, and this group of defensemen still terrifies me. Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear will have to step up and log key minutes for this team to make the playoffs again, and either Mike Smith or Mikko Koskinen must claim this job outright if the Oilers want to make a serious run at the Stanley Cup.
3. Vancouver Canucks (HC: Travis Green)
2020 Record: 36-27-6, 78 points, 4th in Pacific
Betting Odds to Win North: +700
Offseason Additions: Nate Schmidt (D), Braden Holtby (G), Travis Hamonic (D)
Offseason Losses: Jacob Markstrom (G), Chris Tanev (D), Tyler Toffoli (F), Troy Stecher (D), Josh Leivo (F), Nico Sturm (C), Louis Domingue (G)
Unsigned Free Agents: Oscar Fantenberg (D), Nikolay Goldobin (F), Reid Boucher (C), Richard Bachman (G)
Offseason Grades: C–
Assuming it works out, the last minute signing of Travis Hamonic could save this otherwise disastrous offseason for Vancouver. The Canucks were the team on the rise in the Pacific a year ago, with an exciting young core and a very high ceiling. Had they put together an encouraging free agency, I might have picked them to win the North, but instead they largely struck out losing three key players to 2021 division rivals. The Flames stole both Markstrom and Tanev (also role player Leivo), and new rival Montreal took Toffoli (who was a big part of the Canucks playoff run), leaving Vancouver with a shallow roster around Alex Edler, Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller and Tanner Pearson. The netminder situation is also an interesting one. Thatcher Demko could start at age 25, after finally breaking through during the postseason, or it could be the regressing ex-Capital Braden Holtby. The most likely scenario is that the two split the duties down the middle, or Demko could continue his rise to stardom. Schmidt and Hamonic do help sure up the largest hole on the roster and there is enough talent here to ensure another playoff appearance, but I still can't help but feel that Vancouver dropped the ball after the momentum of their bubble surge over the Summer.
2. Calgary Flames (HC: Geoff Ward)
2020 Record: 36-27-7, 79 points, 3rd in Pacific
Betting Odds to Win North: +700
Offseason Additions: Jacob Markstrom (G), Chris Tanev (D), Dominik Simon (C), Joakim Nordstrom (C), Josh Leivo (F), Nikita Nesterov (D), Alex Petrovic (D), Louis Domingue (G), Garret Sparks (G)
Offseason Losses: Cam Talbot (G), T.J. Brodie (D), Travis Hamonic (D), Derek Forbort (D), Erik Gustafsson (D), Tobias Rieder (C), Mark Jankowski (C), Austin Czarnik (C), Alan Quine (C), Ryan Lomberg (F), Jon Gillies (G)
Unsigned Free Agents: Byron Froese (C), Zac Rinaldo (F), Rinat Valiev (D)
Offseason Grade: B
Calgary had to regroup this offseason, but they are still only one season removed from being the number one seed in the Western Conference. If Markstrom can play like a top goaltender again in 2021, I see no reason that the Flames can't rebound this year. They still have the same talented core of fowards (Matthew Tkachuk, Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm), and one of the more reliable blue lines in the division (Mark Giordano, Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin and Brodie replacement Chris Tanev). The bottom pairing will be some mix of Nesterov, Petrovic, Juuso Valimaki and Michael Stone most likely (plenty of options to choose from). The clear weak spot last season was the consistency in goal however, and as stated above, the Flames bulk up in free agency adding Markstrom there. With David Rittich as a trusty backup (eventually replaced Talbot at times as the starter last year), this is now a strength. I think Calgary is out for a bit of revenge this season. Now healthy and humbled, I like their chances to be Toronto's biggest threat to win the North. You might even say +700 odds is worth a few bucks.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs (HC: Sheldon Keefe)
2020 Record: 36-25-9, 81 points, 3rd in Atlantic
Betting Odds to Win North: +140
Offseason Additions: T.J. Brodie (D), Wayne Simmonds (F), Joe Thornton (C), Zach Bogosian (D), Joey Anderson (F), Jimmy Vesey (F), Michael Hutchinson (G), Travis Boyd (F), Aaron Dell (G)
Offseason Losses: Tyson Barrie (D), Andreas Johnsson (F), Kyle Clifford (C), Cody Ceci (D), Frederik Gauthier (C), Pontus Aberg (F), Evan Rodrigues (F), Jeremy Bracco (F)
Unsigned Free Agents: Kevin Gravel (D), Tyler Gaudet (C), Matt Lorito (F), Garrett Wilson (F), David Clarkson (F/IR), Nathan Horton (F/IR)
Offseason Grades: B+
We've all heard this story before, the Maple Leafs are stacked heading into the new season. It was hard for me to rank them first, because I know that they'll probably find a way to screw it up, but they are the heavy betting favorite at +140 for a reason. This division has so many middle of the pack teams in my opinion. There is nobody that's really terrible (I do believe Ottawa will improve dramatically), and also nobody that's far and away the top of the litter either. Because of this, I do believe that this talented roster will finally win a division title away from their kryptonic rivals, the Bruins and Lightning. The core is still the same (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly and Frederik Anderson in net), but Toronto actually freed up enough money to build around it this time. The ageless Joe Thornton and an experienced Wayne Simmonds were both cheaper signings that have the makings of championship caliber moves. Bogosian, Vesey and Anderson also provide some depth that the Leafs haven't always had in the past. The key signing is of course T.J. Brodie, who should skate alongside Rielly on the top D-pairing (and it's a plus that he's coming over from Calgary). I like that this flashy Toronto team got a little more experienced and mature this offseason, but I also like that the Leafs got tougher and more physical (as we similarly saw Tampa do in 2020) This team still has flaws compared to some of the other Cup contenders around the league, but the good news is that this season Toronto won't have to worry about any of them until June (if they make it that far), and they better.
In the end I'm taking Toronto to distance themselves from the pack, but if they falter, I believe that Calgary has the most well-rounded team that is positioned to challenge them. It could be a really tight battle from the two or three seed to as far as the six seed in this division however, with a ton of mediocrity and balance throughout.
NORTH PLAYOFFS
I'll keep this part short and sweet...
(4) Edmonton @ (1) Toronto
The Maple Leafs typically choke in this spot, but this is not the right team to beat them. The Oilers actually remind me of a slightly worse Toronto team of old, very top-heavy and reliant on star-power to carry them. McDavid and Draisaitl steal one in this high-octane series, but in the end the better team advances easily. Toronto in 5 (assuming these are still seven game series).
(3) Vancouver @ (2) Calgary
Well this should be a nice bitter rivalry matchup. As much as I love the Flames during the regular season, I'm not sold on their core in the playoffs. They have begun to develop a reputation for coming up short when it counts, and I expect the Canucks to hit their stride (and possibly add some pieces that they failed to add in free agency) during the final third of the year. Trusting in the more clutch core here and taking Vancouver to upset in 6.
North Finals
(3) Vancouver @ (1) Toronto
Is this finally the year that the Maple Leafs make it over the hump? Do they have a better chance of making the Semi's out of this younger, more offensive bracket (instead of an Eastern bracket with opponents like Boston, Tampa Bay or a Washington/Islanders type)? I want to say no, but for some reason I'm actually thinking that they might. If there was any one team that was ecstatic about this restructuring, it had to be Toronto, and I do think that after the moves they've made (as well as the path before them), this is probably their best chance to at least make a final four appearance. Toronto outlasts the inexperience of Vancouver and wins in 7.
Final Four North Representative: Toronto Maple Leafs
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