NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW- Conference Semifinals
- iAmMizz!
- Aug 24, 2020
- 8 min read
Unfortunately I was away all weekend and due to the quickened nature of this year's playoff sprint, I was unable to get out a preview on Saturday before the Eastern and Western Semifinals began. Let's sum up how the round of 16 went;
Short Series. Five series only went five games and none of the Conference Quarterfinals went to a seventh game.
#1 seeds continued to take care of business. The Flyers and Golden Knights were awarded the lowest seeded opponents after their dominant round robin performances and they did not disappoint, ousting both Montreal and Chicago with relative ease.
Avalanche!!! Colorado offense erupts with 22 goals in five games including back-to-back seven goal wins to wipe out the Coyotes.
Tampa gets gritty. The Lightning finally proved they can win the ugly games against a pesky Blue Jackets' team that had their number in 2019. It wasn't as easy as the results look, but Tampa Bay outlasts Columbus many times in OT to take the series in five.
Defense prevails in 3/6 matchups. The defensive stalwarts of each Conference could be considered the Islanders and Stars, who both play an extremely old school game. Neither budged in the round of 16 and the Caps and Flames made early exits.
Youth vs Experience yielded one upset and one schooling. Boston snapped back to normal as they continued their commanding role as Carolina's greatest nightmare. The Bruins have now eliminated the Hurricanes quite easily in back-to-back playoffs. On the other side of things, the Blues and goaltender Jordan Binnington seemed lost, a shell of the Cup Champions from 2019. The upstart Vancouver Canucks finished them off in six.
Few upsets. The NHL Playoffs is generally known for its wild upsets, but they never materialized in the Conference Quarterfinals, perhaps because a few underdogs already shocked the bubble in Qualifiers, setting up a few lop-sided matchups. In the end, the only two first round upsets were the Islanders and Canucks.
I did about the same in the Round of 16 as I did in Qualifiers, hitting on five of eight series again (Flyers, Lightning, Islanders, Knights, Avalanche). The Hurricanes, Blues and Flames let me down.
EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
(6) New York Islanders vs. (1) Philadelphia Flyers [season series: 3-0 Isles, 1 OT win]
On paper, this shakeout of re-seeding works out magically for an Islanders team that is now the lowest original seed left in the bracket (beginning as a seven seed in qualifiers). They swept the Flyers during the season series, and it will be another grinding defensive matchup for Philly, who just faced a similar type of opponent in the Canadiens. New York plays at a much higher level than Montreal however, and this will be no cake-walk between bitter rivals. Each team has a huge question that looms large for their chances of advancement. For NYI, can they continue to score goals against a much hotter goalie in Carter Hart (than last round's adversary Braden Holtby)? Anthony Beauvillier and deadline acquisition Jean-Gabriel Pageau have led the Isles through the playoffs so far with six and four Gino's respectively. Josh Bailey leads the team in points with 10 (eight assists). Goaltender Semyon Varlamov has played every game in net and has flourished in this system, holding a 1.67 GAA and .934 save percentage through nine starts. For the Flyers, the major question besides Hart is whether or not their skill position game can avoid being stifled. This Philadelphia team has a much improved defense and goaltending, but at its heart it is still a fast-paced skill unit (as Alain Vigneault's teams usually are). Even though the Flyers took down the Habs in six, Montreal exposed that this Philly team is a bit soft, finishing checks on them up and down the ice. You have to be able to win the battles in front of the net in playoff hockey, and there's still a question of whether or not the Flyers can do that against a team as impenetrable as New York. Travis Konecny, Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier all have zero goals in the playoffs to this point, Kevin Hayes only has one, that has to change if the Fly Guys hope to move on.
Notable Losses: Nolan Patrick (PHI, out indefinitely), Johnny Boychuk (NYI, missed last game), Nicolas Aube-Kubel (PHI, missed last game)
Prediction: I had this matchup correct in my original bracket and the first time around I took the Flyers. After watching that Canadiens series however, I have serious doubts that Philly's offense can break through this Islanders brick wall. I'll take Barry Trotz and N.Y. in 6.
(4) Boston Bruins vs. (2) Tampa Bay Lightning [season series: 3-1 Lightning, 1 OT win]
In recent seasons, the Bruins have had Tampa's number more than once, frustrating this electric skill unit with sturdy, balanced play. In Game 1, Boston continued to do just that, frustrate and win, despite being out-shot by the Lightning. Tampa Bay did beat Boston three out of four times in the regular season, which is kind of a surprise based on their history, but can they overcome a playoff Bruins team which seems to always lock in at a different level. Already down a game, I get a tad bit nervous that this Lightning bunch will choke again in 2020, as their Cup window begins to narrow. Nikita Kucherov has to get going in the goals department. Seven assists is nothing to sneeze at, but two goals adds to the rumors that the star goal scorer can't get it done in the playoffs. Brayden Point on the other hand has shown up in a huge way, with five goals and six assists in nine games, including two clutch OT winners. For the B's, it has been business as usual despite star netminder Tuuka Rask opting out mid-playoffs. Everyone is contributing, and even though David Pastrnak and Zdeno Chara have gotten off to slow starts, others have picked up their slack. Perhaps the biggest hero so far is veteran goalie Jaroslav Halak, who is 4-1 with a .921 save percentage and a 2.23 GAA since taking over for Rask as the Bruins primary netminder.
Notable Losses: Steven Stamkos (TB, out indefinitely), Tuuka Rask (BOS, opt out)
Prediction: I picked the Lightning to win the Cup back in October and I picked them again when I made my full playoff bracket. This is a really tough matchup for them, and the Bruins already hold that ever important one game lead, but I really loved what I saw from Tampa Bay in the Blue Jackets series. They grinded out games and stayed with a Columbus team that is extremely good at their craft. Boston is even better at it, which makes the task that much harder, but I really do believe this is finally TB's year. They played well in Game 1 despite taking the loss. This will be a really phenomenal series and I hope it goes seven, Lightning in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
(5) Vancouver Canucks vs. (1) Vegas Golden Knights [season series: 1-1 Tie, 1 OT loss for VGK]
Although I felt silly for picking against Boston last round, I was more so disappointed in myself for picking against Vancouver. This is a team I was high on in qualifiers, but figured would flame out against the experience of St. Louis. They did not, taking it to the Blues offensively and running them out of the bubble. I might of even considered taking the Canucks with how hot they were playing if not for writing this article late, but Game 1 was a deafening reminder of just how good the Vegas Golden Knights are. A 5-0 route of Vancouver led by goalie Robin Lehner and a balanced attack of five different scorers occurred last night, fanning the Nucker's flames. Constantly underrated despite showing up on every stage, this Vegas team might be the most complete team left in the NHL Playoffs (even more so than the Boston Bruins, who are famous for that honor). They don't have the flash and appeal of other big name squads, but they always get the job done and they play with a real unity and chemistry about their game. Mark Stone, Reilly Smith and Shea Theodore are the current playoff point leaders (10, 10 and nine), but there aren't too many Knights who have let their teammates down so far. The biggest change from the early season struggles was shoring up the D and goaltending, and they were both corrected at the deadline after some really A+ work from general manager Kelly McCrimmon. Alec Martinez (one addition) is a +10 on the ice in the playoffs. Robin Lehner (the other) has won the job in net from the declining Marc-Andre Fleury, he's now 6-1 this playoffs. Vancouver should not be disregarded, they have a bright future and their youth has been on full display in this tournament. 21-year old Elias Pettersson has been spectacular, with 13 points in the first 11 playoff games of his career. 25-year old Bo Horvat leads the team with six goals, and rookie defenseman Quinn Hughes has nine assists and 10 points. I'm not convinced Jakob Markstrom is the long-term answer at goaltender, and if things continue as they did in Game 1 we may end up seeing Thatcher Demko get an opportunity to start.
Notable Losses: Micheal Ferland (VAN, done for season), Tyler Myers (VAN, separated shoulder-questionable), Josh Leivo (VAN, out indefinitely)
Prediction: You should already see which direction this is headed in based on my analysis, but I just don't think Vancouver has the toughness or experience to keep up with Vegas (Ferland and Myers have been important losses in that regard). I probably would have went with the Knights before the series began, but Game 1 made this an even easier decision for me, Vegas in 5.
(3) Dallas Stars vs. (2) Colorado Avalanche [season series: 4-0 Stars, 2 OT wins]
I guess I should have stuck with Dallas last round, who I picked to make the Stanley Cup back in October. I just didn't like the way they looked in the round robin, while Calgary rolled right through Winnipeg. I was also fearful that Ben Bishop's injury woes would derail any chance that the Stars had at a long Cup run. Little did I know that Anton Khudobin would take the reins and play to a 2.55 GAA in eight games. This is a well-built defensive unit of course, with budding star Miro Heiskanen becoming a real talent on the blue line. The D-Man has 13 points and a +5 goal differential in 10 games. On the offensive side, which is always the more tricky of the two for Dallas, veteran Joe Pavelski (who had a wealth of playoff experience with the Sharks) and youngster Denis Gurianov are tied for the team lead with six goals a piece. Now to Colorado, who find themselves down 0-1 against a team that was their kryptonite during the regular season. We should consider that the Avalanche did beat the Stars in round robin play 4-0, but Dallas returned the favor on Saturday with a 5-3 victory in Game 1. The Avs have been a popular pick for Stanley Cup Champion all season long. They are explosive and high-octane, which is perhaps the exact opposite of Dallas. Nathan MacKinnon has played like an MVP early in this year's postseason. The Colorado star has 16 points (6 G, 10 A) and a +9 rating. Rookie defenseman Cale Makar is a +10 on the ice, with seven points of his own, and hard-nosed journeyman Nazem Kadri adds six goals and six assists through their first nine games. Goaltender Philipp Grubauer left Saturday's game with an injury, but one could make the argument that head coach Jared Bednar should be starting Pavel Francouz in net anyway.
Notable Losses: Philipp Grubauer (COL, left last game-questionable), Ben Bishop (DAL, questionable), Stephen Johns (DAL, missed last game), Martin Hanzal (DAL, out), Colin Wilson (COL, out), Roman Polak (DAL, opt out)
Prediction: All the metrics would probably tell you that Dallas should advance in this series. They clearly play Colorado very well and they already have a one game lead, but I guarantee that if I made this pick two days ago I would have taken the Avs so I will stick with that decision. They looked so dominant in the Conference Quarterfinals and I have to think that they will turn things around here against the Stars. Avs in 7.
So even though I made these picks a little late, I'm actually handicapping myself on two of them selecting the team down one game to zero in two out of the three matchups that have begun.
Advancing to the Eastern and Western Conference Finals, I have:
(6) New York Islanders vs. (2) Tampa Bay Lightning
(2) Colorado Avalanche vs. (1) Vegas Golden Knights
Hopefully at least one or two longer series this round, enjoy!
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