NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW - Qualifiers
- iAmMizz!
- Jul 31, 2020
- 10 min read
Hockey is finally back from its long hiatus this weekend, and with that, the battle for the infamous Stanley Cup is on. This year, a total of 24 teams will compete for the coveted trophy. This makes the first round different than ever before. Following the current NHL standings, the top four teams from both the Eastern and Western Conferences will face off in a round robin schedule in order to determine seeds one through four. The fifth through twelfth ranked teams will then face off in best of five series (5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9). Here are the matchups:
P.S. No one could have predicted an epidemic halting the season, but here were my original Stanley Cup predictions from Fall of 2019 if you want a nice laugh before reading on. I will say some divisions I nailed back in October and others went horribly wrong.
EASTERN ROUND ROBIN
Boston Bruins: The B's were cruising all season long with little turnover and fantastic chemistry carrying over from their 2018-19 roster. They have a deep unit led by star scorer David Pastrnak and star goaltender Tuukka Rask, two key cogs in 2020. Don't forget about veterans Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Zdeno Chara, David Krejci and more who have plenty of experience in these situations. The one issue for Boston right now is that both Pastrnak and Rask are questionable for the opening round (deadline acquisition Ondrej Kase as well). The two skaters just started practicing this week and Tuukka is recovering from a fractured finger on his glove hand. This team runs through competition like a locomotive under Bruce Cassidy, but Rask and Pastrnak are the two only irreplaceable parts. I assume both will play, but will they be game ready?
Tampa Bay Lightning: Perhaps the most skilled team in the league at their best, Tampa flaunts talents like Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos (questionable with injury), Victor Hedman (delayed but expected to rejoin Lightning for round robin), Ondrej Palat and more. Their depth is ridiculous too, adding bounce-back defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk last offseason and forwards like Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow at the deadline. I haven't even mentioned that they have one of the best goaltenders to play the sport in Andrei Vasilevskiy. Yep, the Lightning are still stacked, there's a reason I picked them to win the Cup back in October.
Washington Capitals: To me, the Caps are far more top-heavy than the two teams above. Their first lines generally include Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie and John Carlson (top-scoring defenseman). Evgeny Kuznetsov and Jakub Vrna are also tremendous talents, and I'm not foolish enough to overlook key role players like Tom Wilson, Lars Eller and Dmitry Orlov, but Washington just doesn't have the back-end that TB and Boston flaunt. The loss of rookie goaltender Ilya Samsonov for the entirety of the playoffs is crucial, Braden Holtby was flat-out bad this season. I don't trust him next to Rask or Vasilevskiy. Frustrate the top line and the Caps are vulnerable.
Philadelphia Flyers: The hottest team in hockey before the NHL shut down, Philly will look to pick right back up where they left off. Unfortunately, the long break from the sport probably couldn't have come at a worse time for the Fly Guys, but they still have an impressive roster with an experienced coach in Alain Vigneault. A blend of vets and youth, Philadelphia has perhaps its most complete roster in some time. Claude Giroux is still captain, but younger forwards like Travis Konecny and Kevin Hayes have stolen the spotlight at times. Matt Niskanen, Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Philippe Myers, Justin Braun and either Robert Hagg or Shayne Gostisbehere also make up their deepest defensive core in awhile. I was high on Philly back in Fall and they didn't disappoint, but all eyes will be on the effectiveness of rookie net-minder Carter Hart now.
Prediction: 1. Tampa Bay Lightning 2. Boston Bruins 3. Philadelphia Flyers 4. Washington Capitals
EASTERN PLAY-IN ROUND (BEST OF 5)
(12) Montreal Canadiens vs. (5) Pittsburgh Penguins [season series: 2-1 Penguins, 1 OT win]
This is the most lop-sided series in the bracket. The Canadiens are not a playoff team. They were sellers at the deadline who limped their way into the 12th seed. They do have Carey Price though, one of the goaltending greats of his generation. The Penguins persevered all season through countless injuries, they have the much better team in pretty much every way (even goaltending statistically speaking). Unless Price shuts down Pittsburgh, I expect Sidney Crosby (probable), Evgeni Malkin and company to make quick work of the Habs, sweeping in 3 (PIT).
Notable losses: Karl Alzner (opt-out, MTL), Nick Bjugstad (out-spine, PIT), Dominik Simon (out-shoulder, PIT), Sidney Crosby (probable to play, PIT)
(11) New York Rangers vs. (6) Carolina Hurricanes [season series: 4-0 Rangers]
It's fair to mention that I am a Rangers fan, but this matchup could not have worked out better for the Blueshirts. Firstly, they get Chris Kreider and goaltending phenom Igor Shesterkin back from injury after the lay-off. More important, they dominated the Canes this season winning all four contests. Both Carolina and New York have youthful cores, so the series winner will probably be determined by whichever stars of the future rise to the occasion. Will it be Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov (all 60+ point scorers for the Hurricanes)? Or Artemi Panarin (Hart Trophy finalist), Mika Zibanejad and Kaapo Kakko? Based on goaltending talent and history repeating itself, I'll take the Rangers in 5. P.S. Former Blueshirt Brady Skjei was sold to the Canes for a first rounder at the deadline, so an elimination by N.Y. would add extra embarrassment for Carolina.
Notable losses: Dougie Hamilton (injured in practice-questionable, CAR)
(10) Florida Panthers vs. (7) New York Islanders [season series: 3-0 Islanders]
Two teams I really liked before the season began with two legendary coaches in Barry Trotz and Joel Quenneville, this one has the makings of a intriguing matchup. The Panthers are known for their offense, ranking seventh in goals for. The Islanders on the other hand are known for their defense, ranking sixth in goals against... and neither are very good at their opponent's strength. Florida's defense has been atrocious this season, despite bringing in goalie Sergei Bobrovsky on a massive free agent contract. It's the main reason that they find themselves in the 10 seed. New York's biggest issue has been staying healthy, and finding goals outside of Mathew Barzal and Brock Nelson. After the long hiatus, I'll take defense over offense as playmakers like Jonathan Huberdeau and scorers like Mike Hoffman might be out of sync in the short series, Islanders in 4.
Notable losses: Aaron Ekblad (questionable, FLA), Leo Komarov (doubtful, NYI)
(9) Columbus Blue Jackets @ (8) Toronto Maple Leafs [season series: 1-1 Tie]
The team that defied all expectations this season (John Tortorella's Blue Jackets), against the team that consistently doesn't live up to them (Toronto). This is a home series for the Leafs against an opponent that they out-rank at almost every position, you can only imagine the headlines if they lose it. Having said that, Columbus loves being the underdogs, and Toronto doesn't usually do well with added pressure. Superstars like John Tavares, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner all get paid the big bucks, but they have yet to show up in the playoffs throughout their careers. On the other side of things, 21 year old Pierre-Luc Dubois was the Jackets leading point scorer with just 49 (compared to Matthews' 80). Columbus won behind scrappy forechecking and a sturdy defense led by Seth Jones and a combination of young goaltenders (Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins). Jones is healthy after the restart, the Leafs aren't, Jackets depth/D upsets Toronto in 5.
Notable losses: Zach Hyman (probable, TOR), Andreas Johnsson (doubtful, TOR), Josh Anderson (probable, CLB), Timothy Liljegren (questionable, TOR), Brandon Dubinsky (out all season, CLB)
WESTERN ROUND ROBIN
St. Louis Blues: The reigning Stanley Cup Champions proved last year's run was not a fluke all season long, even without star sniper Vladimir Tarasenko for a majority of the repeat campaign. Craig Berube's coaching has changed the mindset of this roster for the better. This is a solid team in front of 26-year old Jordan Binnington (who was red hot in net last playoffs). Ryan O'Reilly and Alex Pietrangelo may be the best known names of the bunch, but there isn't a skater on this bench that doesn't know his job and do it well. P.S. The Blues could be weakened at the blue line with Jay Bouwmeester done for the year, plus Vince Dunn and Robert Bortuzzo questionable.
Colorado Avalanche: Led predominately by Hart (MVP) Finalist Nathan MacKinnon and Calder (ROY) Finalist Cale Makar, Colorado is a fast high-octane team that can score goals in a hurry (and isn't too bad at stopping them either). Former Czech and KHL goalie Pavel Francouz adapted well in his first season. The overseas veteran had 21 wins and a .923 save percentage for the Av's. This youthful roster has a lot of talent and depth, but it may only go as far as its leader MacKinnon takes it, and he's been mysteriously held out of practice leading up to the round robin.
Vegas Golden Knights: The Golden Knights were having a disappointing season up until they parted ways with expansion coach Gerard Gallant. Some, including myself, will feel Galant got a raw deal after putting this new franchise on the map in their inaugural season, but the results under Peter DeBoer speak for themselves. Aiding DeBoer was a beautifully executed trade deadline, where I actually had Vegas ranked as the number one grade for all BUYERS. I loved the trade for defenseman Alec Martinez, and bringing in goaltender Robin Lehner to pair with struggling veteran Marc-Andre Fleury didn't hurt either. After a narrow Pacific Division at the mid-way point left no clear favorite, the Golden Knights torched the competition and won it easily down the stretch. 2019 acquisitions Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone took over as Vegas headliners in 2020. Pacioretty is the only Knight who has missed practice, but the team is hopeful he'll be out there.
Dallas Stars: My original pick to win the Western Conference playoffs at the start of this crazy season, the Stars ended up finishing in the top four. Similar to the Islanders in the East, this is a stout defensive team that does not score many goals. Ben Bishop is one of the best in the NHL in net, and this defense is young and sturdy (Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, John Klingberg among them). Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are still the best goalscorers on the roster, but there isn't enough consistency around them. Someone else must step up for the Stars, perhaps veteran Joe Pavelski or Corey Perry? Missing in action are; Martin Hanzal - Out & Roman Polak - Opt-out
Prediction: 1. St. Louis Blues 2. Vegas Golden Knights 3. Dallas Stars 4. Colorado Avalanche
WESTERN PLAY-IN ROUND (BEST OF 5)
(12) Chicago Blackhawks @ (5) Edmonton Oilers [season series: 2-1 Blackhawks]
On paper this one seems like an easy choice, but when you dive deeper you realize that Chicago is a scary 12 seed. For starters, they beat the Oilers two out of three times this season. Secondly, the Blackhawks still have Stanley Cup Champion experience on the roster in Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Brandon Saad and goaltender Corey Crawford among others. Coupled with young talents like Dominik Kubalik, Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat, Chicago could easily steal a series. On the flip side; the West are playing their games IN Edmonton, the Oilers have a Hart Finalist in Leon Draisaitl and a recent Hart Trophy winner in Connor McDavid, and Corey Crawford is questionable for the series. I don't like Edmonton's goaltending duo (Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith), I thought they dropped the ball by not trading for Lehner or Lundqvist. I also don't love either team's depth, but in the end I have to go with the home favorite, Oilers in 5.
Notable losses: Corey Crawford (questionable, CHI), Brent Seabrook (questionable, CHI), Andrew Shaw (out for season, CHI), Zack Smith (out for season, CHI), Mike Green (opt-out, EDM)
(11) Arizona Coyotes vs. (6) Nashville Predators [season series: 1-1 Tie]
A playoff main-stay in recent years, Nashville got off to an awful start in 2019-20. After firing the previously successful Peter Laviolette and hiring John Hynes as head coach, something seemed to click. It's mostly the same group of faces for the Predators; Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg, Ryan Ellis, Ryan Johansen and veteran goalie Pekka Rinne. Matt Duchene and Kyle Turris are newer additions that have yet to really show their stuff in Nashville. The real question is whether we will see the Preds of 2017-19, or this year's less-intimidating group. The Coyotes are another team that has not lived up to its potential this season, especially when you consider goalie Darcy Kuemper has had a career campaign. With plenty of firepower on the roster (Taylor Hall, Phil Kessel, Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, Conor Garland, Oliver Ekman-Larsson), you would expect Arizona to score more goals. Both teams are finally healthy, but I feel like the Preds have missed their window for a championship, give me the young-gun Yote's in 5.
(10) Minnesota Wild vs. (7) Vancouver Canucks [season series: 2-1 Wild, 1 OT Win]
I think that all these Western play-in series will be closer than most of the Eastern ones, but this Minnesota-Vancouver series is an easy one for me. Even though the Wild beat the Canucks in two out of three this year, I feel like Vancouver's roster is superior in every way. Neither of the Minnesota goalies impress me (Devan Dubnyk and Alex Stalock), I'll take Jacob Markstrom in that battle. Scoring/playmaking ability definitely goes to the Canucks too, Kevin Fiala was the only Wild player to have over 50 points while Vancouver is loaded with talent (Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser, trade deadline acquisition Tyler Toffoli and more). The Wild may get the slight edge on defensemen, based on experience, but it's marginal at best. I had Vancouver finishing 3rd in the Pacific back in October, Canucks fly by the aging Wild in 4.
Notable losses: Brandon Sutter (doubtful, VAN), Josh Leivo (out, VAN), Greg Pateryn (out, MIN)
(9) Winnipeg Jets vs. (8) Calgary Flames [season series: 1-0 Jets, 1 OT Win]
Two teams I was dead wrong about back in Fall, I had the Flames "setting fire to the Pacific Division" in a runaway victory over the competition and the Jets totally collapsing to a last place Central finish by the end of 2020. Instead of one being really good and one being really bad, both ended up being pretty average. Credit net-minder Connor Hellebuyck as Winnipeg's savior. The otherwise top-heavy roster would not have won nearly as many games without him in goal. I liked Calgary because of their incredibly deep defense, led by Mark Giordano, Noah Hanifin and T.J. Brodie. A defense that took a hit when Travis Hamonic decided to opt-out. Goalscoring and goaltending were both more of an issue than I expected for the Flames however. Matthew Tkachuk led the team in points, but Sean Monahan and Elias Lindholm didn't have the impact I anticipated. If Calgary can shut down Winnipeg's top two lines (Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler, etc.), they will win the series easily, but I'm not entirely sure they'll be able to do that. This could be a nail-biter series, but I'll stick with my gut, Flames in 5.
Notable losses: Travis Hamonic (opt-out, CGY), Bryan Little (out for season, WPG), Anthony Bitetto (covid-questionable, WPG), Dustin Byfuglien (not with team-out indefinitely, WPG)
I'll be back each round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs with series previews and predictions because IT'S THE CUP!
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