MVP, Cy Young, & All My Picks for MLB's 2019 Awards... plus playoffs
- iAmMizz!
- Sep 27, 2019
- 11 min read
Updated: Dec 14, 2019
The MLB has and MVP award problem, how do you differentiate talent from team value? The best baseball player in the world is on a horrendous, irrelevant franchise. That is of course, Mike Trout, and the team is of course the Los Angeles Angels. Every season the Angels find a way to waste Trout's jaw-dropping ability which is history in the making, and you could argue he's not the only player with this problem. Nolan Arenado comes to mind (but at least the Rockies made the playoffs last season), or how about Josh Bell this year, or Jacob DeGrom for the Mets most seasons? Baseball is a team sport, arguably as much or more than any other due to the length of the season and the nature of the game. One player cannot carry a team in this sport, it's just not possible. So the award titled 'Most Valuable Player' can become relatively confusing. I feel that most people go by WAR in the modern age, or just the old fashioned eye test matched with certain statistics. WAR stands for 'Wins Above Replacement' and is basically a sabermetric used to ascertain a players total value to a team (or how many wins they account for when they are playing). The highest WAR this season was an 8.6, by Cody Bellinger of the LA Dodgers. Next is Mike Trout, who generally finds himself near or at the top of this list since its creation. The Angels outfielder is never far off the top of the eye test list either, making him an MVP finalist almost every year since he's entered the league. I am a Trout fan and a supporter of his claim for best baseball player in the world. I think this claim is undisputed right now based on his consistency and shear brilliance. Still, Mike Trout should not win or be a finalist in the MVP ballot if his team is eons away from a playoff berth. Is it Trout's fault they're terrible? NO! Does that mean he should win 'Most VALUABLE Player'? Also NO. I have the solution to the MLB's problem, create a second award.
Naming rights must fall to my brother, but here and now I propose the 'Babe Ruth Award' to Commissioner Manfred. The Babe Ruth Award would be similar to the NHL's 'Ted Lindsay Award', and go to the most outstanding position player. This would be the counterpart to the Cy Young Award for pitchers. It would have nothing to do with the success of their franchise, or how many wins the team has. It would only have to do with the exceptional ability of a player in terms of hitting, defense, and base-running throughout the course of an entire season. Mike Trout would win this award for the American League often, most likely, and no one would argue against him doing so. There would also be an NL Babe Ruth each season. Adding this new award would then allow voters to hone in on what the MVP is really all about. Not only being a tremendous player, but inspiring victory. Someone who has rallied their team to glory, someone who is the key cog in a World Series contender, and for lack of a better term... someone who is a winner. No offense Mike Trout, I love you, I know you could win a championship with many teams and I respect that you have stuck it out with the team that drafted you but until you actually do it, you're not a winner. MVP could also go to a pitcher as far as I'm concerned (albeit harder because a position player is out there every game), or even a dominant closer. Whoever is deemed MOST VALUABLE to the success of their team, with the only condition being that the team is ACTUALLY SUCCESSFUL. Yes, in my correction of the MLB Awards, it would be required that the MVP go to a player on an above .500 franchise, and preferably one that at least makes the playoffs. In other words, you got to be in it to win it... but this may just be another pipe dream of mine lost in the internet forever. Even so, I felt it needed to be stated before getting to this year's NightCap picks for MLB's 2019 Awards.
MVP
American League Candidates: Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, DJ LeMahieu, Marcus Semien
I think you know where I'm going with this one, but if it were up to me I would create the Babe Ruth Award in 2019 and personally hand it to Mike Trout. We can even forget my brother's idea and name it the Mike Trout award, since he's the reason for it's invention! The name matters less than the fact that the MLB needs this award to exist. Having said all that, I feel very strongly that Alex Bregman should be the 2019 AL MVP this season.
I know his stats are a little worse than Trout's, I know his WAR is lower, I also know his team is currently the best in baseball with three games to play. Bregman was a massive part of that. Did he have more help than Trout? Of course. That's why Trout wins the most outstanding player award. Bregman has played 153 games this season at multiple positions, batting .296 with an on-base percentage of .420 and a slugging of .590. He has hit 40 home runs and knocked in 110 RBI's with an overlooked walk to strikeout ratio of 114 walks to only 82 strikeouts. He also has 5 stolen bases and more importantly, a WAR of 8.1 (just 0.2 behind Trout). Bregman currently dominates second place in the MVP ballot, but it looks like Trout will end up winning again despite leading a team that is 15 games under .500 and 23 games back of the second wildcard spot. Props to LeMahieu and Semien, two utility/middle infielders that had career seasons for the Yankees and Athletics.
My Pick- Alex Bregman
National League Candidates: Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rendon
Yelich won the 2018 NL MVP Award and led the Brewers to the NLCS where they were defeated by the Dodgers. Unfortunately, Yelich will not be able to lead his team there again, but his season ending injury hasn't stopped the Brew Crew who is one of the hottest teams in baseball this September. They have clinched an opportunity to play their way in against the Washington Nationals in the wildcard game without their star and look to keep rolling on into the playoffs. If anything, this has hurt Yelich's chances of repeating and now I feel this MVP race is just about locked up even more than it was before the unfortunate end to the outfielder's year.
Cody Bellinger has been the best player in the National League. His stats are absurd because they come without any clear flaws or holes in his game; 153 games played at different positions including both infield and outfield, .301 batting average, .402 on-base, .623 slugging, 46 HR's, 114 RBI's, 15 stolen bases, 93 walks, 108 strikeouts, and an 8.6 WAR. Freeman and RBI leader Rendon were undoubtedly large reasons for the success of the Braves and Nats, but the all-around numbers just cannot compete with Bellinger's. In my new system, Bellinger would probably take home NL MVP and Babe Ruth in '19.
My Pick- Cody Bellinger
Cy Young
American League Candidates: Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole... Charlie Morton
This race is down to two, and they both play for the same team. Personally I would award third to Charlie Morton of the Tampa Bay Rays over a Shane Bieber or a Lance Lynn/Mike Minor type. Morton has the only ERA of the next tier that is close to being under 3.00 at 3.05, plus his strikeouts are up at 240 with 16 wins and a 1.084 WHIP. The rest don't have Cy Young type stats in my opinion. In terms of Verlander or Cole, the legendary veteran vs. the stud pitcher in his prime, the margin on which Astro wins is razor-thin. Cole leads the AL in ERA, but only by one percentage point over his teammate. He also leads the MLB in strikeouts by a good deal. Verlander is leading in most other stats (WHIP, Wins, Complete Games, Innings Pitched, WAR, etc.). This is a real toss up, and being that they play together one wonders if the MLB would ever allow a shared Cy Young Trophy. This is 2019 after all. I'm not in favor of that though, and when in doubt I always stray towards ERA with pitchers. Verlander's 34 HR's allowed (tied for 4th in baseball) should count for something, even if it's the one percentage point lead Cole holds in the ERA race.
My Pick: Gerrit Cole
National League Candidates: Jacob DeGrom, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Max Scherzer, Mike Soroka
I've been hearing names like Strasburg and Flaherty too but Strasberg's ERA is up in the 3.30 plus range and Flaherty started too slow in the first half for me to consider them. Soroka has pitched much less innings, and I would never select him to win Cy Young because of that, but in his time with the club he wasn't anything short of exceptional. His ERA is an MLB 5th best, 2.60, and even though he doesn't strikeout many batters this young ace knows how to pitch. Another man of similar billing is Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu has taken hits in the balloting because everyone is obsessed with strikeouts nowadays, but if you get players out consistently what's the difference? I never understand why a pitcher should be faulted for how they get players out.
Ryu's top ERA aside, my pick for Cy Young is still a repeat. DeGrom has been the best overall pitcher in the National League, but I would put Ryu second over Scherzer. Max's numbers have dropped in September and his ERA is now 2.92 with a higher WHIP at 1.027. DeGrom posts 2.43 and 0.0971 while Ryu pitched to 2.41 and 1.019. I think the real runner up should be the Dodger breakout, but DeGrom with his WAR of 7.9, his continual lack of run support, and his impressive numbers across the board should win his second Cy Young trophy in as many years.
My Pick- Jacob DeGrom
Rookie of the Year
American League and National League: Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso
In an era that loves sluggers, this one is already in the bag. It's not that there aren't any other young talents this year, there are many, probably more than most seasons. It's just that these two have dominated pitching as if they were 10 year pros. The Astros DH Alvarez and the Mets 1B Alonso will win it, look up their stats if you doubt me, but I will list some notable players that may become stars of the future. The aforementioned Mike Soroka, Padres Fernando Tatis Jr (injury ended chances) and Chris Paddack, Rays Brandon Lowe, Orioles John Means, Pirates Bryan Reynolds, Nationals Victor Robles, the plethora of Blue Jays rookies (Vlad Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette), and more. It is of note that entering this weekend Pete Alonso is one home run back of the rookie HR record set by crosstown Yankee Aaron Judge in 2017 (52).
My Picks- Alvarez & Alonso
Manager of the Year
American League Candidates: Aaron Boone, Rocco Baldelli, Kevin Cash, Bob Melvin
I like to think of this award as, 'who was able to win the most with the least at their disposal,' but many note it as, 'who exceeded the most expectations?' Maybe it's somewhere in between. Many put this down to Boone (Yankees) and Baldelli (Twins) because even though Boone's roster was littered with injuries throughout the season it didn't stop the Yanks from winning over 100 games, and Baldelli's Twins surprised some and won the Central with a brutish offense. I personally am less impressed by either of these, although I could see Boone winning. I picked the Twins to win the division this year, their roster was stacked to start the season and it still is. If anything the credit should go to their GM for his off-season moves. My gripe with Boone is that he was given depth like no other team in this league, especially in the bullpen. Not many MLB teams have an excellent bullpen, most have miserable ones. Boone's was constructed to be dominant and win games in the back end, and it worked brilliantly all season with an unreal group of young hitters making up the lineup. Injuries aside, I still think Boone had plenty at his disposal, more than most, and I was often unimpressed by his management decisions. Cash (Rays) and Melvin (A's) have surprised me more than the other two, taking teams with mediocre talent and budgets (which is common from their GM's every year), and having great seasons yet again. I would give this one to whichever manager wins the likely head to head wildcard game, could be a Melvin repeat.
My Pick- TBD, Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays) or Bob Melvin (Oakland A's)
National League Candidates: Dave Roberts, Mike Shildt, Brian Snitker, Craig Counsell
Honorable mention to Torey Lovullo for his work with the D-backs, I thought they would be awful after selling most of their players in the off-season but Lovullo had them in the wildcard race until recent weeks. The other four are the three division winners and Brewers Craig Counsell. I didn't include Dave Martinez (Nats) because frankly I think he's a brutal manager. He has been since taking over and this team which had the talent to compete for the NL East (and also has had major clubhouse drama in recent years) has floundered opportunity after opportunity. When they got off to a terrible start this season, I was shocked Martinez didn't get fired. Sure they fought back and made the wildcard, fine, but I consistently disagree with Martinez when watching him and if anything this team wins in spite of him. Roberts (Dodgers) has the best record, but his roster is stacked every year and I really don't think his job is that challenging compared to most managers. I will not be selecting Dave Roberts. That leaves three. Counsell's case is similar to Boone's. The Brewers keep winning no matter who gets hurt or what impact players are unavailable. The Yelich injury had many predicting doom for Milwaukee, but they survived and better yet, they've dominated since then. Still, Counsell has had a GM willing to supply as many weapons as needed with the Brewers trying to capitalize on a window of opportunity. Snitker (Braves) proved that last year was no mistake, running away with the NL East again and Shildt (Cardinals) got St. Louis back to the promised land after the failed Matheny era. This may be the closest race out of any, with many deserving candidates, so I have to go with the team that surprised me most. I had the Dodgers dominating, I had the Brewers in the World Series before the season began, I had the Cardinals making the wildcard after additions like Goldschmidt and Ozuna in recent years... but I had the Braves falling back into fourth in the division with their opening day roster. Maybe it was a bad pick, but that's the only way I can separate this golden group. Snitker wins two straight.
My Pick- Brian Snitker (Atlanta Braves)
Real quick, because I've already done this... playoff predictions.
Before the season began I had a Yankees-Brewers World Series (which could still happen), but at the trade deadline I made some changes. I guaranteed an Astros AL Championship on August 1st after their moves and I stand by that now. Whichever team wins the AL Wildcard (A's, Rays, Indians), I don't think they have a shot against Houston, who should hold down the #1 spot this weekend. I did well with the AL at the start, picking the Yankees Twins Astros as division winners (wildcard picks were Red Sox and Indians which was where I went wrong). I still think the Yankees will beat the Twins but I wouldn't be shocked if Minnesota out-slugged NY and bounced the championship hungry franchise early. Either way, dominant pitching wins playoff series and neither can compete with the Astros balance of starting pitching, hitting, and bullpen (especially their SP's). On the other side the Dodgers are obviously the favorite, they've been there the past two seasons and have the most well-constructed roster. They should be able to take care of the Brewers if they can knock off the Nationals, but the pitching staff of Washington is definitely more dangerous for LA. The Nats are choke artists though, and I cannot see myself picking them even with their deep rotation (keep in mind the Dodgers rotation might be deeper and their lineup is stacked as well). Braves/Cardinals is an interesting first round matchup but I like the Braves to take it. Both have a mixed team of veterans and youngsters but I think the Braves are just a little deeper and more talented overall. I doubted Atlanta to start this season so why not trust them now... I like the Braves to peak at the right moment with Freeman & Acuna leading them to the World Series in an upset over the Dodgers for the first time since their glory days of Chipper Jones and a dominant pitching staff. The Braves will fall short of the Astros in the World Series however, and Houston's destiny-bound class of superstars will win its second championship in three years as the AL continues its reign of supremacy.
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