MLB's National League: A Race Worth Watching?

At least 11 out of 15 teams in the National League are still legitimately in the hunt, but that number could honestly go all the way up to every team besides the Miami Marlins depending on who you ask. As a New York Mets fan, I think the team is done in 2019, and should look to sell at the deadline in an attempt at a overnight rebuild where you try and flip the problem areas in a year or two, while keeping the core intact, similar to recent Rangers hockey for my puck fans out there. I'd include the San Francisco Giants in the finished category not because of their record but because they seemingly have no urge to compete this season, which has been pretty obvious from the get-go, so that leaves the Cincinnati Reds who are the borderline at the deadline, team number 12. If this was golf, they'd probably make the cut, but should keep playing?

Back in March, I made my usual baseball predictions like I do for most sports every year (below). With the MLB, I find the American League to be relatively simple most years, while the National League usually gives me some trouble. I'm not sure if it's because my Mets fandom shrouds my judgement like it did this season, or if it's just because there's so much more parity in this league, but either way the NL has become the more captivating show time and time again. Having said that, the AL has been more dominant over the years, so is there just more mediocrity in the NL? I'm a believer that super teams are bad for a sport, does the AL have too many? What's the solution for baseball? In my other article (linked above) about the AL's first half, I discussed playoff changes I would put into place to help make the league's second half become more competitive. In the NL, this isn't needed as much, but it still couldn't hurt to open up another wildcard spot and give the top two teams first round byes. It would be a win-win for all parties.

For example, the Dodgers are the talk of the NL again. The Los Angeles team has represented this group of 15 in the World Series two straight seasons now (losing both), and I see no reason to doubt a three-peat at mid-season. With a 13.5 game lead on the NL West at the break and smooth sailing in LA for three months, home field throughout the playoffs becomes the major rally cry. With two byes to go around, LAD will have even more reason to stay on their toes, while others will battle it out for a wildcard playoff series... well, I've said my piece on this.

NL West: I'll start in reverse since I've been talking Dodgers baseball. They lead, which was my easiest pick in the NL. The team that has me scratching my head is the D-backs. I was expecting a major rebuild in Arizona which seemed to start this off-season, but then the players brought in to fill the gaps performed (like an Adam Jones). I had them last in the West, they are currently in second, one game over .500. I was right to put the Giants low (not low enough), and the Padres in the middle (I had them as a dark horse up-and-comer that needed one more year to get serious), but Colorado's ineptitude has been odd. They stacked half their lineup into the all star game, yet the pitching has been so dreadful (even more so than usual). I know it's everywhere around the league, but in the Rockies it's even worse, and they find themselves in fourth at one game under.

NL Central: I was high on the Brew Crew this Winter-Spring, maybe I was drinking from the Kool-aid keg, but I loved the additions to the lineup and I thought they had enough in their pitching staff with a decent bullpen and group of starters to get them by until the deadline. I still believe in Milwaukee, who lost to the Dodgers in the NLCS last year, but they need a big name arm before August. They find themselves a 0.5 game back of the Cubbies, who I had finishing third. I actually saw the Cubs as a team set to regress, with an aging pitching staff and hitters who had over-performed early in their careers (or so I thought). The team has held it together and are poised for another World Series run as the division's current leader. I liked St. Louis more this year, and although they haven't had the start they wanted, they still find themselves in third (only 2 games back of division and wildcard)... unquestioned striking distance. The Reds are right around where they I thought they'd be, a few games under .500 (better than in recent seasons, but still not great), but I was also wrong about the Pirates. Like the D-backs, I had them slated as a team to fall off the map this season, but who knew Josh Bell would suddenly develop into an MVP candidate? They're currently 2.5 back.

NL East: Overall so far though, not too bad. I could still have two division winners correct at the end of the season if things break my way... until we hit the East. Maybe I put it last subconsciously to bury my failures, but it comes as no surprise the division I followed the closest was the one I screwed up the worst. The Atlanta Braves lead again, looking better than ever with a studly young group that could dominate for some time. They have a 6 game advantage at the break. I'm not sure what it was, I didn't think last year was a fluke, but something told me guys like Foltyniewicz and Newcomb wouldn't pitch the same... they didn't!... something told me Josh Donaldson (the big acquisition) was past his prime... he kind of is! I was right about some concerns, but where I was wrong was the farm system. I didn't do my diligence on Austin Reilly (breakout 3B/LF slugger), I didn't realize Mike Soroka would come back and be so dominant, or Max Fried or Dansby Swanson's turn-around or Touki Toussaint or Luke Jackson. How about Anthony Swarzak? On the Mets he can't keep the ball in the park but on the Braves he seems like a hall-of-fame reliever... the list goes on. So the Braves are definitely the favorite to win back to back division titles and Bryce Harper's Phillies, who I'm not sure why I ended up going with because I called that he would be a bust (I guess I just liked the team around him), have fallen to third. The Mets who I had picked for second aren't even in the same stratosphere right now, and the Marlins are where they were expected to be. The one place I was sort of right was the Nationals, which didn't look even close for the first month and a half, but now they're hot and have moved all the way up into second in the East. Originally, I had the Nats winning the division because I couldn't convince myself to put the Mets any higher than the wildcard (even if I was excited) and I was iffy on the Braves and Phillies. I liked Washington's pitching staff which was one of the best in baseball on paper, but their lineup gave me pause, and at the last minute I made the change, flipping them and Philly. You have to understand, this was a text to friends and it was before the blog began. Now I try to completely separate my heart from decisions like this, especially if I'm writing about it. Keeping the Mets second because I wanted that was wrong, professionally speaking, but I wasn't speaking professionally at the time, so there it is.

THINGS THAT WERE EXPECTED:

1. The LA Dodgers dominance of the West. This division was weak going into 2019, so weak that I considered putting the San Diego Padres in second on my picks, a team that has battled for last in the division for as long as I can remember. The budding prospects in SD on both sides of the ball caught my eye, and the Manny Machado signing gave them some face value (even though I don't consider him to be elite like some do). I ended up sticking with Colorado, but I didn't have them in wildcard contention this season either. I still believe this to be true, both wildcards will come from either the Central or East (most likely 1 and 1 or I could still see the Central could getting both, but that's hard to do).

2. The Central would be a three-headed dog fight between the Brewers, Cubs, and Cardinals. Just because I had the Cubs regressing, doesn't mean I didn't think they would be involved. These three teams were so narrow going in, I had very little separating them in the end.

3. Cody Bellinger's breakout campaign. I drafted Bellinger in every fantasy league this season, I took him in every derby and contest I entered, and man has he lived up to my expectations in year three. 6.6 WAR, .336 average, 30 HRs, 71 RBIs, the stats are off the charts.

Max Scherzer of the Washington Nationals. Photo Credit: Federal Baseball

4. Max Scherzer, the machine. Until he stops doing it, I'll always assume Mad Max is the mark to beat in strikeouts (#1), pitcher WAR (#1), ERA (third in the NL at 2.30), and wins (tied for second). Scherzer will be a CY Young finalist again in 2019, just like every other season.

5. Marlins and Giants in rebuild. This had to happen for both teams, especially the Giants, but with Jeter blowing it all up in Miami there have been no shockers here.

THINGS THAT WEREN'T:

1. Obviously the Braves repeated success for me, but I think a lot of people were right about Atlanta... so instead I'll say the East's lackluster play. Aside from the Nationals recent run and the Braves consistency, this division has been a real let down. Coming in, the NL East hype was through the roof. Four teams all with a shot at the World Series, the divisional games will be the key to 2019, who's going to beat up on the Marlins? or the AL Central? Well the Nats started so poorly that most analysts had Scherzer on the block. People were suggesting they tear it down in Washington. Since then, they managed to come back from the dead and weasel there way into the top wildcard somehow. The Phillies have had the opposite tale, they started hot, the team to beat. Kapler limited bonehead decisions, Harper heard cheers from fans, Hoskins and friends were smacking homers, and Arrieta looked like he still had a lot left on the bump. All was good in the city of brotherly love... and then in a moment it all seemed to spin out of control like a Tazmanian Devil when they lost McCutchen, Seranthony, Dave Robertson, Odubel Herrera (suspension), and more in a whirlwind of injuries. The bullpen became similar to that of the Mets and Nats (who were the worst in baseball). They still hold a wildcard, but for how long?

2. The Central's 5-team competitiveness. Now I talked about the three team dog fight, but who knew it'd really be five? The reason none of these teams have run away with the division or the wildcards is because they all face each other nonstop. When the best in the Central face others besides the Dodgers and the Braves, I usually see them beat those teams, yet the East hold both wildcards. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have really made this tough on the top three, if nobody sells this division may only get one (max two) playoff spots. I started out thinking they might get three.

Hyun-Jin Ryu of the LA Dodgers. Photo Credit: Dodgers Nation

5. Hyun-Jin Ryu. I always liked Ryu as one of the best four starters in the league (meaning a low end rotation guy who gets the job done whenever he's healthy). This year he's been an ace! Pitching to an unfathomable ERA of 1.73 in this 2019 juiced ball league! Absolutely unreal. He leads the NL in WHIP and walks allowed per 9 in general, as well as wins (tied for first). The guy is just a professional, it's not all about K's with him, personally I enjoy this style pitching.

4. The Pirates and the D-backs in contention. Maybe it was just me, but I took the total wins under on both these teams and was confident in doing so. Josh Bell has had 84 RBI's off 27 HRs and a ton of clutch hitting in the first half! What? Does he just knock in all their runs? What happened to the Josh Bell that bats .240 and finishes the year with 75 RBIs or so? They also have a dominant closer in Felipe Vazquez (20 saves, 2.11 ERA, 60 K's). In terms of Arizona, admittedly I don't get to see them play too often, but it seems like they're doing things the old school way more than most teams in baseball. They have incredible speed in Jarrod Dyson (20 steals), as well as a team in general that runs a lot on the bases. They also have the top defensive player in the NL in Nick Ahmed (1.9 defensive WAR), with Ketel Marte doing all three aspects of the game well right now. Add that to some experience like Greinke, Eduardo Escobar, and Adam Jones... we got a team here. I didn't see it before but I'm starting to.

5. The Mets pathetic and embarrassing display. Besides Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil, plus DeGrom who always gives you his best, this season has been an utter disgust. I won't get too into it but from the bullpen leading the MLB in blown saves, to Robby Cano batting third and doing NOTHING all year, to Wilson Ramos' poor numbers offensively and even worse performance behind the plate, to Rosario's errors at SS and all the other atrocious defense we've seen from players out of position on an everyday basis, to Syndergaard and Wheeler and Matz who get all this talk but never seem to back it up, to Mickey Callaway who can't seem to get a decision right as manager, to Cespedes and Jed Lowrie who may never play a game this season! That last one is incredible, especially for Lowrie who has become a nightmare signing. It's the same old story for this team, and there's not much more to say without sounding repetitive. 10 games under .500 after the all star break... 10!

6. Aside from Bell, the MVP race has become a competition between two triple crown contenders, Christian Yelich (last year's MVP and traded by Miami for no reason whatsoever, would like to keep pointing that out) and Cody Bellinger. There hasn't been a triple crown since Miguel Cabrera broke the streak going back to 1967 in his 2012 season. The NL drought goes back further than both, the last triple crown dating back to the Cardinals Joe Medwick in 1937. Yelich and Bellinger both have a chance at history, which is always something special for us fans. Yelich is currently 1st in HRs at 31, but has fallen behind in batting average (4th) and RBI's (17 behind Josh Bell). Bellinger has the better shot at it as of now being that he's 2nd in all three categories, but it'll be tough to surpass Bell in RBIs and Jeff McNeil in average.

NY Mets star rookies Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil. (give me this one) Photo Credit: Amazin' Avenue

7. Mets rookie of the year battle. You would of thought that if the Mets had two ROY candidates in 2019, they'd be looking pretty good for the playoffs. Well you and I would have thought wrong. Pete Alonso bats .280 with a WAR of 4 to go along with 30 HRs and 68 RBIs. His defense at first base has also been much better than expected. Jeff McNeil has been positioned all over the field, playing at least average or above at all of them. Not to mention he bats .349 with 7 HRs and 36 RBIs... and the Mets, sigh.

8. Kirby Yates has 30 saves. Some of you may be thinking, who? Mr. Yates became the closer in San Diego last season, kind of out of nowhere, but he took the job in stride. This year, his clutch pitching has only progressed, and with the Padres winning more games, Kirby has been a top closer around the league.

THE EXPECTATIONS?

A tight race, and yes, one worth watching for the average baseball fan... even if your team is hopelessly out of it. This is what the MLB wants every year and the July 31st trade deadline now being the ONLY trade deadline for the entire season will help. Teams have to decide whether they are in the hunt, or out of it, sooner than ever before. In the past you could wait on the July 31st deadline and still make moves after the threshold passed, the Verlander trade to the Astros was post-July. In the AL, it won't make much of a difference, since the gap between talent is so wide, but in the NL it should cause less teams to pack it in. This next two and a half weeks will decide the Reds and the Pirates and the Rockies of the world. As for my predictions, I won't change much from my original picks besides the obvious. I still think that the Brewers could win the NLCS this year, but they need to make a move for an ace starting pitcher, and they could use some of their top relievers back from injury or trade for a replacement. The lineup is stacked and ready to go. The Dodgers will win the West, it's already pretty much won but they'll play it out of course. I will change my pick in the East to the Braves, it is clear to me now they have the best mix of hitting, fielding, and pitching. Something tells me this meltdown in Philly might continue, so I'll take the Nats as the main secondary team from the East that stays in wildcard contention. If they can make the one game playoff they'd likely win it behind Scherzer, but I'm not sure they'll hold up. It may sound unlikely but I'm going Cubs-Cardinals for my wildcard selection, I feel the Pirates will tail off in the second half and the Reds may actually sell some pieces, so the division will get a little lighter and the three big dogs will pick up some steam. In the West I just don't see any of the other four having the longevity to outlast Chicago, St. Louis, Washington, or even Philly if they turn things around. Right now the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Rockies are all within two games of each other, but being that the Padres seem like the most likely buyers in two weeks, I'll take them to finish second out West, but come up short of the playoffs... Nats will miss the wildcard game by a hair.

Last year the National League finished with two division tiebreaker games between the Brewers and Cubs, as well as the Dodgers and Rockies, that then culminated in a wildcard play-in between the defeated, Cubs and Rockies. The Cubbies ended up being the team that drew the short stick, losing both tiebreakers, and it was without a doubt one of the most captivating wildcard races in recent history. What will the National League have in store for an encore in 2019? A triple crown, more teams in the race than ever before, a multi-team wildcard tie? The AL may may be just about set in stone, but the NL race is just getting started.

Cover Photo Credit: Bellinger&Yelich- Bleacher Report

Photo Collage Credit: (left to right from top row) NL Logo- Iron on Sticker, Christian Yelich- Madison, Javier Baez- CBS Chicago, Bryce Harper- NBC Sports MLB, Josh Bell- Bleacher Report, Manny Machado- NY Times, Freddie Freeman- The Sports Geek, Cody Bellinger- Dodgers Nation