MLB Off-Season Moves: NL East, Arms Races & Star Aces

Let's start this MLB blog series with a bang and head straight to the NL East, which should be the most competitive division in baseball in 2020.

The league has restructured several times over the last century, but the National League East division was created in 1969 (the New York Mets actually won the World Series out of this division in its inaugural year). Since then, it has included the aforementioned Mets, Montreal Expos (who later became the Washington Nationals), Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates (through '93), St. Louis Cardinals (through '93), Chicago Cubs (through '93), Florida/Miami Marlins (expansion team, '93 through present), and Atlanta Braves (restructured, '94 through present). We won't focus on the Pirates, Cubs, and Cardinals in this article, who we now know as Central teams, but let's look at the history and success of the others since '69.

In their 27 years in the MLB, the Marlins have yet to win the NL East, although they have won two World Series in 1997 and 2003 (both as a wildcard). These were their only two appearances in the championship series. The Expos and Nationals combined have won five NL East titles (four as the Nats), and have one World Series victory in their only attempt, which came last season (2019). The New York Mets have won the East six times, with two rings (1969 and 1986) out of five World Series bouts. The Phillies are next with 11 NL East banners, but just as many World Series rings as the Mets with two (1980 and 2008), despite seven total opportunities winning the NL pennant. The most dominant team in the NL East has been the Atlanta Braves, even though they've had less time in the division than most of the others. The Braves have won the division 14 times since 1994, but have only won one World Series during that period (1995). The organization does tack on two championships before their days in the NL East, and they have won 17 total NL pennants in their history, which began all the way back in 1871 (Atlanta-based since 1966).

The Atlanta Braves reclaimed the East from the Washington Nationals in 2018, then repeated by winning the division in 2019. The Nationals stole the spotlight last year however, taking the World Series as a wildcard. Going into 2020, the focus has to be on Atlanta and Washington, although the Mets and Phillies also have exciting rosters that could be favorites in most other MLB divisions. The Marlins are still in full rebuild under now-HOF player turned owner, Derek Jeter, but have become a pesky young team that loves to spoil things for the four contenders.

Off-Season Changes in Order of Predicted 2020 Standings

5. Miami Marlins (manager: Don Mattingly)

Derek Jeter has not been as popular in Miami as he was in New York, but he made it clear from the start that the franchise needed an overhaul, and that it wouldn't happen overnight. Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove, USA TODAY Sports

• Notable Hitting Additions- Johnathan Villar (INF), Corey Dickerson (LF/RF), Jesus Aguilar (1B), Matt Joyce (LF/RF), Francisco Cervelli (C), Sean Rodriguez (UTIL)

• Notable Pitching Additions- Yimi Garcia (RP), Brandon Kintzler (RP), Aaron Northcraft (RP), Josh Smith (RP), Brad Boxberger (RP), Stephen Tarpley (SP/RP)

• Notable Hitting Losses- Starlin Castro (2B), Curtis Granderson (OF), Neil Walker (1B), Martin Prado (3B/1B), JT Riddle (2B/OF), Austin Dean (OF), Bryan Holaday (C)

• Notable Pitching Losses- Jarlin Garcia (RP/SP), Austin Brice (RP), Wei-Yin Chen (RP/SP)

Record-wise, I think the Marlins should improve from their horrid 57-105 total in 2019. Aside from the classy Curtis Granderson retiring, the only real loss is Starlin Castro, but Johnathan Villar more than adequately replaces the journeyman second-basemen. I was surprised Jeter gave up on a promising young arm in Jarlin Garcia, who they had tried out in both the rotation and bullpen in recent years, but really the off-season has been mostly positive. Yimi Garcia was a nice snag in the bullpen and a bunch of stabilizer type veterans (Dickerson, Villar, Aguilar) will get the opportunity to try and post numbers on a poor team. In terms of fantasy, the starting pitching doesn't leave much to be desired (especially in this division), but the headliners are 2019 soft-tossing all-star Sandy Alcantara, strikeout pitcher Caleb Smith, and '19 head-turner Jordan Yamamoto. The closer battle should come down to veteran Brandon Kintzler, starter turned reliever Jose Urena, and Yimi. Top hitting prospect Brian Anderson remains a centerpiece in the lineup, but second-baseman Isan Diaz is also someone to watch in 2020. The Marlins cannot hope to compete amongst this stacked NL East field right now, Jeter knows that, so he'll continue to develop youth and find pieces that are a part of the future that he envisions for Miami. He's not the best manager, but you got to feel for Donny Baseball (Mattingly), another 162 games of misery for the former Yankee great.

4. Philadelphia Phillies (manager: Joe Girardi)

The Phillies went out and got free agent SP Zack Wheeler, awarding him with five years and 118 million. Photo Credit: Philadelphia Inquirer

• Notable Hitting Additions- Didi Gregorius (SS), Josh Harrison (INF), Ronald Torreyes (UTIL), Neil Walker (1B), Nick Martini (CF)

• Notable Pitching Additions- Zack Wheeler (SP), Anthony Swarzak (RP), Bud Norris (RP), Francisco Liriano (RP/SP), Blake Parker (RP, re-signed), Drew Storen (RP), Deolis Guerra (RP)

• Notable Hitting Losses- Cesar Hernandez (INF), Maikel Franco (3B), Corey Dickerson (LF), Brad Miller (1B/3B), Sean Rodriguez (UTIL), Logan Morrison (1B), Cameron Rupp (C)

• Notable Pitching Losses- Jerad Eickhoff (SP), Nick Vincent (RP), Drew Smyly (SP/RP), Juan Nicasio (RP), Edubray Ramos (RP), Aaron Loup (RP)

This is where it starts to get tough, because I love the Joe Girardi hire for the Phils, but I have not loved the acquisitions over the last year or so. Last season I did buy into some Philly hype, but one signing I was against was McCutchen's long-term big money deal. He was playing decently well, but the age concern ended up being valid when injury struck. This season I am going on record against the Zack Wheeler signing. I have plenty of experience watching Wheeler pitch, and even at his best I would never consider him an ace. I was always nervous whenever Wheeler took the mound, he gave up way too many long-balls and was a better strikeout guy than an ERA guy. I'll take ERA any day. The contract Philly gave Wheeler shows how starved the league is for starting pitching, especially an organization like the Phillies that is trying to keep up with teams like Washington, New York, and Atlanta. Because of this they overpaid, and Wheeler in that home run friendly ballpark spells trouble for me.

I liked the Girardi moves better (you can tell which ones those were). Didi on a bounce-back deal, Torreyes as a backup utility guy if needed, Josh Harrison on the cheap, and then a ton of bullpen fliers. The Phillies pen needed some work in 2019, so they went with the quantity approach in 2020. We'll see if any of those veteran names above work out for the Phils, who will most likely have either Hector Neris or Seranthony Dominguez try and close again. With a couple role player losses like a Cesar Hernandez (kind of a wash with Didi coming in) or Nick Vincent, Odubel Herrera's personal off the field issues, Eickhoff/Smyly gone and even more of a lack of starting pitching depth, aging vets playing key parts like Arrieta or McCutchen, and the general change of regime maybe taking some time to get used to (from player-friendly Gabe Kapler to strict and gruff Joe Girardi), there are just too many questions for me to take the Phils over the other three franchises that have all bulked as well. One thing is for sure, Aaron Nola is a true ace and this lineup is loaded with talent. From Hoskins to Realmuto, from Segura to Didi, from rookie center-fielder Adam Haseley to former MVP Bryce Harper, this team will hit. I am very interested to see how Harper and Girardi gel together though. Should be an intriguing season in Philly for a big budget team hoping to build on a season where they only finished .500, at 81-81 last year.

3. Washington Nationals (manager: Dave Martinez)

The Nationals lost Anthony Rendon this off-season, but they did re-sign World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg. The question is, did they bring back the right player? Photo Credit: UPI

• Notable Hitting Additions- Starlin Castro (2B), Yan Gomes (C, re-signed), Howie Kendrick (INF, re-signed), Asdrubal Cabrera (3B, re-signed), Eric Thames (1B/OF), Ryan Zimmerman (1B, re-signed), Emilio Bonifacio (OF), Welington Castillo (C), Mac Williamson (OF)

• Notable Pitching Additions- Stephen Strasburg (SP, re-signed), Will Harris (RP), Daniel Hudson (RP, re-signed), David Hernandez (RP), Fernando Abad (RP), Kyle Finnegan (RP)

• Notable Hitting Losses- Anthony Rendon (3B), Matt Adams (1B)

• Notable Pitching Losses- Kyle Barraclough (RP), Justin Miller (RP), Jeremy Hellickson (SP), Trevor Rosenthal (RP)

As it tends to go with championship winning franchises in sports, the Nats had to do more re-signing than improving this off-season, and they lost their biggest fish that hit the market. That of course is 2019 MVP candidate Anthony Rendon, who has been one of the Nationals best hitters over the past five years (and that includes teammates like Harper and now Soto). Rendon decided on the West coast, signing with the Angels, so at least he didn't go over to a rival like Atlanta, but it is still a monstrous blow to a team that was never offensive in the first place. They attempted to fill the Rendon void with players like Starlin Castro and Eric Thames, while also bringing back all the friendly faces from the World Series run (Kendrick, Gomes, Cabrera, and of course trusty old Ryan Zimmerman). Sadly, I don't think any of this will make up for Rendon. The only thing that might is if Juan Soto progresses to an MVP-type level in 2020, which is a lot to ask of the young superstar.

I would actually have the Nats dropping all the way to fourth in the division if their starting pitching wasn't so impressive, but with Strasburg returning, that same top five or six starting options will win this team plenty of games (Strasburg, Scherzer, Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Ross, Voth). Will Harris was also a huge addition to a bullpen that is never any good. The Nats play a gritty style. They fight to get on base often, they are extremely aggressive moving around the bags (it feels like Trea Turner steals 50 bases on the Mets alone every season), and they do not die easily (as they proved last season making an epic run from a disastrous start to a championship finish). Because of all this, Washington should find themselves right in the thick of the playoff conversation again in 2020, even after losing their MVP.

2. New York Mets (manager: Luis Rojas)

The Mets bullpen may have prevented them from making the postseason in 2019, so GM Brodie Van Wagenen (left) made it a point to add another big name reliever, former Yankee Dellin Betances (center). Photo Credit: Newsday

• Notable Hitting Additions- Jake Marisnick (CF), Eduardo Nunez (INF), Matt Adams (1B), Rene Rivera (C, re-signed)

• Notable Pitching Additions- Dellin Betances (RP), Rick Porcello (SP), Michael Wacha (SP), Brad Brach (RP, re-signed), Chasen Shreve (RP), Erasmo Ramirez (RP)

• Notable Hitting Losses- Todd Frazier (3B), Juan Lagares (CF), Joe Panik (2B), Sam Haggerty (2B/OF)

• Notable Pitching Losses- Zack Wheeler (SP), Luis Avilan (RP), Chris Mazza (RP), Brooks Pounders (RP), Hector Santiago (RP)

Full disclosure, I am a New York Mets fan, and while I do try to be unbiased when I write these, it can be difficult to separate the fan from the writer when you're excited about your team. I am definitely excited about the 2020 Mets, despite the ownership issues, despite the Beltran hire/fire, despite everything that could and generally would go wrong once the season begins. Why? Well there are a few reasons. One, this team finished third place in the East last year at 10 games over .500 to end the season and A LOT went wrong. Yoenis Cespedes did not play, Jed Lowrie barely played, Edwin Diaz was terrible after he was brought in to be a dominant closer, Jeurys Familia was unpitchable, Mickey Callaway made bad managerial decisions, Syndergaard had a down season, and as usual, many players missed time with injuries (Nimmo, Cano, Wilson, etc). Sure things went right also, like deGrom's back-to-back Cy Young Awards, JD Davis actually hitting, or Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil's cosmic rise together in such a short amount of time. I guess we'll just have to weigh whether the negatives or positives are more likely to repeat.

To me, deGrom has validated his consistency, I'm not worried about him, although it would also be asking too much to expect a third straight Cy Young. I would be more worried about an Alonso sophomore slump. On the other side of things, Cespedes is set to return and he's playing for his contract (after losing most of it in his at-home injury). Cespedes' best statistical seasons have come when his finances are on the line, don't expect anything different in 2020. Yo's got to eat after all! Lowrie should play as well, and you can only hope Edwin Diaz bounces back. I have less faith in Familia, but with Seth Lugo, Justin Wilson, Robert Gsellman, Brad Brach, Drew Smith (returning from tommy-john), and of course major GET Dellin Betances, this is one of the deeper bullpens in all of baseball. Lastly, Luis Rojas comes from a managerial gold mine (the Alou family), and had a nice record in the minors, so he should have more experience coaching than Callaway ever did. If you look at the off-season, the Mets lost next to nothing besides Wheeler (who they already replaced when they traded for Marcus Stroman last deadline). A few lousy relievers, a few bench hitters that were all past their prime, and a career pinch runner. They gained two viable fifth starter options (Porcello/Wacha), bullpen depth including one of the filthiest relievers in the game when healthy (Betances), higher upside replacements of the bench spots and depth they lost (Marisnick, Nunez, Adams), and Yoenis Cespedes (who can be looked at as an addition since he's been out). All that should add about five to 10 wins in my book, no matter who owns the team.

1. Atlanta Braves (manager: Brian Snitker)

Josh Donaldson may have left, but Marcell Ozuna is poised to make the third-baseman an afterthought for Braves fans. Photo Credit: Talking Chop

• Notable Hitting Additions- Marcell Ozuna (LF), Nick Markakis (RF, re-signed), Travis d'Arnaud (C), Yonder Alonso (1B), Yangervis Solarte (3B/2B), Adeiny Hechavarria (INF, re-signed), Tyler Flowers (C, re-signed), Charlie Culberson (UTIL, re-signed)

• Notable Pitching Additions- Cole Hamels (SP), Will Smith (RP), Darren O'Day (RP, re-signed), Chris Martin (RP, re-signed), Felix Hernandez (SP), Josh Tomlin (RP, re-signed), Chris Rusin (RP)

• Notable Hitting Losses- Josh Donaldson (3B), Matt Joyce (RF), Billy Hamilton (CF), Francisco Cervelli (C)

• Notable Pitching Losses- Dallas Keuchel (SP), Julio Teheran (SP), Kevin Gausman (SP), Anthony Swarzak (RP), Jesse Biddle (RP), Jerry Blevins (RP), Dan Winkler (RP)

To my own detriment, I did not pick the Braves to repeat last season. Studying their roster, it's really hard to see how they don't win three straight now, barring injury as always. The main concern is that they lost the backbone of their pitching staff during the Winter. Keuchel may end up being the greatest talent that won't return from 2019, but Teheran was that veteran presence that always seemed to pitch every five days for the Braves when the dog days of Summer hit. Both will be sorely missed, and Gausman's departure makes three experienced starting pitchers out the door. I felt the Cole Hamels signing was just about as desperate as Zack Wheeler to Philly, and the Felix Hernandez signing was worse than both, albeit the least risky. Those two will provide veteran support to some combination of Atlanta's youthful stable of arms (Soroka, Fried, Foltynewicz, Toussaint), and will become less important if the baby faces of the franchise perform as expected. Where I applauded Atlanta was how they attacked bullpen before the rest of the MLB could. Right after the World Series, the Braves beat everyone else to the punch by locking up Will Smith, Darren O'Day, and Chris Martin. They also brought back Josh Tomlin later on, and brought in Chris Rusin for a look. When you consider the Braves already had Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, Sean Newcomb, and Luke Jackson under contract, you start to understand the sense of urgency that has taken hold of this NL East arms race this off-season.

Another huge loss for the Braves was third-baseman Josh Donaldson, but after seeing the contract he got from Minnesota, I feel Atlanta lucked out by missing on him. Donaldson might be great again in 2020, but I feel his age will catch up to him before the end of his long new deal. After losing out on him, they were able to steal away Marcell Ozuna from the Cardinals, a hitter that is more in his prime than Donaldson. At the end of the day, this first place pick comes down to a phenomenal young core of hitters that should carry the Braves to many regular season wins, even if they lose out in the postseason again. That core includes Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Dansby Swanson. So long as this core group is captained by stalwart Freddie Freeman, Atlanta is the team to beat in the East.