MLB Off-Season Moves: NL Central, Seeing Red?
- iAmMizz!
- Mar 2, 2020
- 9 min read
The National League Central is one of the newer divisions, although the teams in it are not new franchises, just restructured ones. It was created in 1994 with five teams, only one of which is not currently in the NL Central (the Houston Astros). The other four were the Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, and Chicago Cubs. The Milwaukee Brewers joined the division four years later in 1998, and up until 2008 there were six teams making up the group. In '08, the Astros left, creating the NL Central that newer fans have come to know.
So there are only 26 years of history to look at, and being that there was a strike during the inaugural '94 season that cut the year short, only 25 division titles to be awarded. The Reds ended up taking the division in 1995, marking them in history as the first NL Central champion. Cincinnati's ball club was established back in 1881, and they had already achieved a lot, winning nine pennants and five World Series titles. They have had much less success in recent years, taking the division two more times after '95, but they haven't been to a World Series since 1990. The Pirates go back almost as far as the Reds (1982), and similarly, they have won nine pennants and five rings (the last one in 1979). They have not made the World Series since joining this division either, and worse than that, the Pirates have yet to win the NL Central. The Brewers have not been a top dog either, established in 1969, their only World Series appearance was in 1982 (a loss). They have won two NL Central titles, and have been in the conversation more often than not in recent seasons.
Now that the bottom-feeders have been established, we make our way to the Cubs and Cardinals, rivals that have dominated this faction of the league since its creation. The Cubbies were established in 1876, and are famous for their "cursed" World Series drought. They had 16 NL pennants by 1945 (and two championships), but only one since (2016), when the 100+ year curse was finally broken with their third ring. Chicago has won the division five times. The Cards have been the real juggernaut of the Central, with 11 titles out of 25 years. The Redbirds tally 19 NL pennants since 1882 (plus four AA pennants), and 11 World Series wins. Besides the Cubs in 2016, St. Louis is the only NL Central team to win a championship out of the division, with one in 2006 and one in 2011. After a three year divisional drought, the Cardinals reclaimed the division title in 2019, which leads us into a 2020 season in which the division is truly up for grabs.
Off-Season Changes in Order of Predicted 2020 Standings
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (manager: Derek Shelton)
Notable Hitting Additions- Jarrod Dyson (CF), JT Riddle (SS/OF), John-Ryan Murphy (C), Guillermo Heredia (OF), Charlie Tilson (OF), Socrates Brito (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Robbie Erlin (SP/RP), Derek Holland (SP/RP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Starling Marte (CF), Elias Diaz (C)
Notable Pitching Losses- Felipe Vazquez ( JAIL ), Dario Agrazal (SP), Francisco Liriano (RP/SP)
The only team unlikely to compete this season is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sadly, 2020 will not produce their first NL Central banner. New manager Derek Shelton, the former Twins bench coach, marks a changing of the guards for the Pirates. They made a few runs at the playoffs in the last decade, making it as a wildcard a couple times, but they came short of the ultimate goal and now they have elected to restart the whole process (a real joy for fans). The main figure departing is one of the last remaining staples of those playoff caliber teams, Starling Marte, who was a sell off for a team looking to get younger. I thought Agrazal did well enough last season to get another look in the rotation, but he was waived as well. Most of the incoming pieces for Pittsburgh are fliers that could possibly work out, or become completely forgettable by Opening Day. Names like Charlie Tilson, Guillermo Heredia, Socrates Brito, JT Riddle, and even catcher John Ryan Murphy all fit that mold. Jarrod Dyson could start in center field, providing defense and speed, and the Erlin-Holland combo will battle to make the rotation (or at least the bullpen as long-men). To make things worse, once dominant closer Felipe Vasquez was arrested for multiple counts child pornography and statutory assault, he will likely be going away for quite some time. I guess the Pirates should have traded him last deadline after all? Keone Kela will take over the ninth inning duties. It'll be a long Summer in the Steel City, one spent examining prospects (Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman looked good last year) and dreaming of football.
4. Milwaukee Brewers (manager: Craig Counsell)
Notable Hitting Additions- Avisail Garcia (LF), Justin Smoak (1B), Eric Sogard (3B/2B), Jedd Gyorko (3B), Luis Urias (SS), Ryon Healy (1B/3B), Brock Holt (IF), Omar Narvaez (C), Logan Morrison (1B)
Notable Pitching Additions- Brett Anderson (SP), Eric Lauer (SP), Josh Lindblom (SP), Alex Claudio (RP), David Phelps (RP), Shelby Miller (SP/RP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Yasmani Grandal (C), Mike Moustakas (2B/3B), Trent Grisham (RF), Travis Shaw (3B/2B), Eric Thames (1B/LF), Hernan Perez (2B/LF), Tyler Saladino (SS)
Notable Pitching Losses- Zach Davies (SP), Jeremy Jeffress (RP), Drew Pomeranz (RP), Chase Anderson (SP), Jordan Lyles (SP/RP), Gio Gonzalez (SP), Jimmy Nelson (RP), Junior Guerra (RP/SP), Taylor Jungmann (SP), Alex Wilson (RP), Deolis Garcia (RP)
Honestly from here it gets so hard to predict. Not because these four teams are all so talented, they're all average. I would probably take any of the four top teams in the NL East over these four, but even so one of these franchises will take the Central, and the race might be razor thin (unless injuries drastically shift the scales). I'm dropping the Brew Crew down to fourth this season, after they won the division in 2018 and were a Yelich injury away from at least making the playoffs in 2019. This off-season was one of tough decisions for Milwaukee. They pretty much re-shuffled their entire roster as you can see above, with more major moves than any other team in baseball. Key players like Grandal, Moustakas, Shaw, Thames, Jeffress, Pomeranz (the list goes on) all left in free agency. Then they made an odd decision to trade Trent Grisham and Zach Davies for Luis Urias and Eric Lauer (I hated this trade for the Brewers, Padres big winners here for me). After getting gutted in free agency, Milwaukee scrambled to pick up the pieces.
My issue is that instead of quality, the Brewers seemed to go with the quantity approach. You know the expression, throw a bunch of blank at the wall and hope something sticks? Well that seemed to be the Brewers strategy this off-season. Their best additions for me were probably Avisail Garcia and Eric Sogard, both underrated players. From there, I didn't love a lot. Major questions in the rotation (Josh Lindblom is an interesting story coming back to the states after finding success in Korea), even more questions in the bullpen with Corey Knebel out and no real trusty arms besides Josh Hader, and a once brutish lineup that has been cut down at the knees. This team still has Yelich (an MVP caliber player), it has some young talent in Keston Hiura and either Orlando Arcia or Luis Urias, but to me this is a scotch-taped roster that has more issues than it does strengths.
3. Chicago Cubs (manager: David Ross)
Notable Hitting Additions- Steven Souza (RF), Jason Kipnis (2B), Hernan Perez (2B/LF), Josh Phegley (C), Carlos Asuaje (2B/SS)
Notable Pitching Additions- Jeremy Jeffress (RP), Brandon Morrow (RP, re-signed), Ryan Tepera (RP), Casey Sadler (RP), Dan Winkler (RP), Jharel Cotton (SP/RP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Nicholas Castellanos (RF/3B), Ben Zobrist (UTIL), Tony Kemp (2B), Jonathan Lucroy (C)
Notable Pitching Losses- Cole Hamels (SP), Steve Cishek (RP), Brandon Kintzler (RP), Pedro Strop (RP), David Phelps (RP), Derek Holland (SP/RP), Kendall Graveman (RP/SP)
I had the Cubs trending downward already last year, and I expect that to continue in 2020. This young core that won a World Series in 2016 has gotten less and less impressive since then, to the point where Chicago has openly discussed trading away pillars of that championship like Kris Bryant or Kyle Schwarber. Well all the "old" (but actually still young) faces are still here, with Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, and Anthony Rizzo (in a contract year) joining those two. On the offensive side, they lost next to nothing besides rentals Castellanos and Lucroy (never likely to re-sign anyway). Otherwise only Kemp (speedster) and Zobrist (extremely old at this point and still available to sign if needed) are gone from last year. They add Souza (a good power hitter to replace Castellanos), Kipnis (past his prime), and some depth in Perez and Phegley. The most detrimental departure may actually be manager Joe Maddon, who's been deemed as a wizard for his work with teams throughout his career. Understudy and recent player (on the Cubs' World Series team) David Ross will be thrust straight into the fire... good luck!
On the pitching side Chicago changes almost nothing in the rotation, losing Cole Hamels and getting another year older with arms like Lester, Darvish, and Quintana. Kyle Hendricks may emerge as the best of the bunch when all is said and done. The bullpen then steals away Jeffress from Milwaukee, along with a few other arms from around the league, but loses some consistency and experience with guys like Cishek, Strop, and Kintzler signing elsewhere. Some people are picking the Cubbies to have a renaissance season under Dave Ross, but I just don't see it, and feel this championship fallout will continue.
2. Cincinnati Reds (manager: David Bell)
Notable Hitting Additions- Mike Moustakas (2B/3B), Nicholas Castellanos (RF/3B), Shogo Akiyama (CF), Derek Dietrich (UTIL, re-signed), Travis Jankowski (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Wade Miley (SP), Pedro Strop (RP), Nate Jones (RP), Tyler Thornburg (RP), Jesse Biddle (RP)
Notable Hitting Losses- Jose Peraza (2B), Jose Iglesias (SS), Nick Martini (OF)
Notable Pitching Losses- Alex Wood (SP/RP), Jared Hughes (RP), Brad Boxberger (RP), David Hernandez (RP), Tim Collins (RP)
The dark horse pick for NL Central champs this season is Cincinnati. Some people were even high on them last year, but that prediction was premature. This off-season the Reds add much more to their younger base through free agency, and now they are a legitimate contender. I think this is the best rotation in the division, but starting pitching is more important in the playoffs than it is in the regular season (in the modern day). Even so, a rotation that boasts Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray, Wade Miley, and Anthony DeSclafani is pretty well-rounded. I would certainly take that over the Cubs and Brewers, and probably even the Cardinals. The bullpen scares me a little, but to be honest none of the relief staffs in this division seem rock solid. Raisel Iglesias is a decent closer, that's a start, and the arms they brought in should adequately replace the ones they lost.
The everyday lineup has become more and more influential to regular season wins. The Reds made serious strides to improve theirs this Winter. Although players like Iglesias and Peraza depart, they won't be missed as proven winners enter the fold. Guys like Mike Moustakas and star Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama can help this team to become a professional contender. Nicholas Castellanos is a huge GET for Cincy too, he can hit and play multiple positions. Paired with prospects like Nick Senzel (former 2nd overall pick), Aristedes Aquino, and Jesse Winker, as well as stalwarts like Joey Votto and (more recently) Eugenio Suarez, this team could definitely make a run at the division, or at least the wildcard.
1. St. Louis Cardinals (manager: Mike Shildt)
Notable Hitting Additions- Matt Wieters (C, re-signed), Brad Miller (1B/IF), Austin Dean (OF)
Notable Pitching Additions- Kwang-Hyun Kim (SP), Adam Wainwright (SP, re-signed)
Notable Hitting Losses- Marcell Ozuna (LF), Jose Martinez (1B/DH), Jedd Gyorko (3B/2B)
Notable Pitching Losses- Michael Wacha (SP/RP), Bud Norris (RP), Dominic Leone (RP), Chasen Shreve (RP)
One thing that I've learned about the MLB is that things tend to stay the same from season to season more often than they dramatically change. St. Louis didn't do a whole lot this off-season, but they didn't lose too much from 2019 either (besides Marcell Ozuna). Jose Martinez never really fit in as a National League player, he was dreadful defensively. Brad Miller is a definite downgrade offensively, but he can field the position better than Martinez as a backup first baseman. Then Gyorko and Wacha were both depth players, although they did take minor hits in the bullpen. Not only did Norris and Leone leave, but former closer Jordan Hicks is out. There are definitely some questions here and like I said before, all four of these teams are average in my opinion (with the Reds and Cardinals as slightly above average). One notable problem could be closer. If Hicks is out and Carlos Martinez rejoins the rotation (like reports have indicated he will), who will close? Giovanny Gallegos and John Gant are candidates... or veteran Andrew Miller? The lineup also has a hole without Ozuna in it. Sure it still has its strengths with the experience of Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, and Yadier Molina, plus younger hitters taking on everyday roles (Harrison Bader, Tyler O'Neill/Tommy Edman, Yairo Munoz), but there's something missing in the middle. If the Redbirds lose a hitter like Goldy, they could be in trouble.
I've mostly criticized the Cardinals so far, so why am I picking them to win the Central again? Well other than pedestrian opponents and history being on my side, St. Louis should get stability from their rotation, which has a mix of younger and older hurlers. Adam Wainwright returns to be the backbone of the staff, but Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas are now the headliners. I should note that Mikolas might miss some time to start the season. Soft-tossing Dakota Hudson was also ultra-reliable in 2019, and the most intriguing signing will be overseas addition, Kwang-Hyun Kim. Once Mikolas eventually returns, this rotation is loaded with depth including many prospects waiting in AAA, which makes me wonder why Martinez is moving out of the bullpen in the first place. If it were up to me, I'd keep C-Mart as the closer in 2020, a role he excelled at. In the end, I'm tentatively taking the Cards to repeat here, but I have to admit I'm not very confident about it, this one should be dog fight.
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