NHL STANLEY CUP PREVIEW
- iAmMizz!
- Sep 19, 2020
- 8 min read
The impossible has happened, one of my preseason predictions has ACTUALLY come true. Yes, that the means the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars are indeed facing off in the battle for the honor of winning Lord Stanley #104. I can't even believe it myself, so much so that I've been picking against the Dallas Stars in each and every stage of my round-by-round NHL Playoff preview. For those that are probably wondering, why would I pick the Stars to make the Cup back in October of 2019, but not now? There is a reason, and that reason is goalie Ben Bishop. I'm a huge Ben Bishop fan, and behind this deep defense I figured Bishop to be a Vezina finalist, and this team to be a Stanley Cup contender. It turns out I was right about the team, just not the goaltender. Bishop has been injured pretty much all postseason, which caused me to doubt Dallas at every turn. As fate would have it though, Anton Khudobin has stepped up and actually outplayed Bishop during the Cup run. Now it's Khudobin's trophy to win, and the veteran journeyman is playing at the peak of his career at age 34. The Stars franchise has not been to the Cup Final since the year 2000, and they only won it once in 1999.
For Tampa Bay, it's been the opposite story, as the Lightning have been a Cup favorite for years now. The elusive trophy has defied this stacked roster in recent seasons. The Lighting were on the doorstep in the 2018 NHL Playoffs, only to be defeated by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. They followed up that heartbreaking loss with a dominant 2018-19 regular season that ended in a runaway Presidents' Trophy and a number one overall seed. In the first round of the playoffs however, the Presidents' Trophy curse struck again, and the Lightning were ousted by the eighth seed Columbus Blue Jackets. Now Tampa Bay is back, and after getting their revenge on the Blue Jackets they were able to take down both the Boston Bruins and New York Islanders in this 2020 bubble playoff tournament. The newer franchise has also won the Cup once in its first appearance in 2004, but they appeared in final in 2015 before losing to the Chicago Blackhawks.
The Matchup: Dallas is the underdog heading into the 104th Stanley Cup, although one could argue that they are eerily similar to a red-hot St. Louis Blues team that took down the favorite Boston Bruins in last year's championship series. Just like the Blues, the Stars changed coaches mid-season, and saw their interim manager Rick Bowness lead them to the final after Jim Montgomery was fired. Last year Craig Berube made the same jump. They are captained by the long-tenured and underrated Star, Jamie Benn. Although Dallas only finished third in the Central Division (82 points), they were able to make the Western round robin, a unique 2020 playoff stage in which the four top team of each conference played each other head-to-head for seeding. The Stars finished third, which lead to a first round victory over the Calgary Flames. This was no easy road for Dallas, who then had to go through the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights. All three were championship hopefuls to start the season. The Stars are a clear defensive team, finishing only 28th out of 31 in goals scored, but second in goals against this year. Tampa Bay finished second in the Atlantic Division with 92 points. They also made the round robin, finishing second in that stage as well. It was another successful season for head coach Jon Cooper, who has been in charge of the team since taking over in 2013. The captain is veteran goal-scorer Steven Stamkos, who has yet to play in the 2020 postseason. It's incredible to think that they have done all of this without him. The Lightning were the most offensive team in the NHL, ranking first in goals scored (opposite the Stars), but they were no slouch defensively also ranking ninth in goals against.
2020 H2H: Dallas holds the bragging rights in the regular season head-to-head, winning both games against Tampa Bay in overtime. This could be a factor, as perhaps the Lightning struggle against the Stars' style of play, but with both games ending in OT it's also probably too close of a margin to have a major impact on the series.
2019-20 Point/Scoring Leaders
Points: (DAL, regular season) Tyler Seguin- 50, Jamie Benn- 39, Miro Heiskanen- 35
(DAL, playoffs) Heiskanen- 22, Benn- 18, Denis Gurianov- 17
(TB, regular season) Nikita Kucherov- 85, Steven Stamkos- 66, Brayden Point- 64
(TB, playoffs) Kucherov- 26, Point- 25, Victor Hedman- 15
Goals: (DAL, regular season) Gurianov- 20, Benn/Roope Hintz- 19
(DAL, playoffs) Gurianov/Joe Pavelski- 8
(TB, regular season) Kucherov- 33, Stamkos- 29
(TB, playoffs) Point/Hedman- 9
Assists: (DAL, regular season) Seguin- 33, Heiskanen- 27
(DAL, playoffs) Heiskanen- 17, John Klingberg- 13
(TB, regular season) Kucherov- 52, Hedman- 44
(TB, playoffs) Kucherov- 20, Point- 16
Presence on Ice: (DAL, regular season) Heiskanen- +14, Andrej Sekera- +9, Alex Radulov- +8
(DAL, playoffs) Jamie Oleksiak/Joel Kiviranta- +5, Heiskanen- +3
(TB, regular season) Point/Anthony Cirelli- +28, Hedman- +27
(TB, playoffs) Hedman- +19, Kucherov- +15, Ondrej Palat- +14
Goaltending: Normally, you would immediately give Andrei Vasilevskiy the nod in a goalie matchup between him and Anton Khudobin. Vasilevskiy is far more skilled, younger, and even has more experience in the playoffs. Both teams play really well in front of their net-minders too, although I would give the slight defensive edge to Dallas. Khudobin does have two factors going for him however. One is the simple fact that he is red hot. Sometimes in the NHL Playoffs, it seems like destiny is on a team's side, last year the Blues had that vibe about them and this year the Stars seem to have inherited that mojo. The other factor is motivation. This is Khudobin's best opportunity to win the Stanley Cup as a starter, and maybe the only chance he'll ever have already in his mid-thirties. Like every hockey player, Khudobin wants his name engraved on that Cup for all-time, and he'll stop at nothing to get it. The vet currently has a 12-6 record with a .920 save percentage and a 2.62 goals against average in the playoffs. Despite all of this, Vasilevskiy's postseason numbers are still better, with a 1.82 goals against average and a .931 save percentage. The Lightning are 14-5 under the goaltender.
Veterans/Experience: Although the Stars franchise has not been here often in recent decades, they did bring in some players with postseason experience to help supplement their talented youth. Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry have a wealth of playoff knowledge with the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks (respectively), while Blake Comeau and Andrej Sekera have bounced around the league and appeared in various playoff runs. Tyler Seguin even has Cup experience, he played in the final as a 19-year old with the Boston Bruins, he's now 28. While these players might aid in warding off first game jitters, Tampa Bay still holds the clear advantage as far as experience is concerned. A majority of this roster has been on this Lightning Cup journey for quite some time, and head coach Jon Cooper has already coached a Championship Series with the franchise. P.S. Grinder Patrick Maroon won the Cup with St. Louis last year, and is back for me in 2020 with TB.
Depth/Grit: To win a Stanley Cup, you need a contribution from every single skater that dresses on your bench. That means all four lines of forwards and all three lines of defensemen, not to mention your goalie (backup goalie is the one player you hope you don't need to call on). Both teams have an impressive top four on defense. Dallas skates Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell the most, followed by John Klingberg and Jamie Oleksiak. All range from age 20-27, Heiskanen being the youngest of the core. For Tampa, it's Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh who generally log the most minutes, although Mikhail Sergachev is close behind forming a three-headed monster on D. Either Erik Cernak or Kevin Shattenkirk round out the top four. Aside from the 21-year old Sergachev and 22-year old Cernak, this is a much more veteran defense than the Stars (with Zach Bogosian as the sixth man). Andrej Sekera adds the experience in line three for Dallas, skating with Stephen Johns (on-and-off with injury) or Taylor Fedun. While Heiskanen has looked like a young Hedman at times, and this Dallas top four has played stupendously, I'll take Tampa's depth on line three. As far as forwards are concerned, both teams have called upon their lower lines for big goals and key roles during this postseason. The Lightning have been called soft in recent years, but their third and fourth line in 2020 has provided that gritty spark that propelled them over three physical teams in Columbus, Boston and the Isles. Yanni Gourde (12 points, +12), Barclay Goodrow (5 points, +6), Blake Coleman (10 points, +5) and Patrick Maroon (SC Champ in 2019, 4 points, +4) have been particularly important towards Tampa's run with their strength, physicality and heart. The Stars on the other hand have used some of their depth skaters for goal-scoring. Denis Gurianov, Roope Hintz and Corey Perry have not logged major minutes, but the line is responsible for 13 goals and a whole lot of points. This is crucial to their success, because Dallas' top lines can be a bit too defensive at times (Benn, Pavelski, etc.). There are too many players that I worry about as liabilities for the Stars though, including Comeau, Jason Dickinson and Andrew Cogliano. The Lightning barely have any weak points, and a team like that can seem impossible to defeat.
Special Teams: As you can imagine, Tampa Bay is good on the power play too. They finished with the fifth best power play percentage in the NHL this season, although it's struggled a bit in the postseason (only tied for 11th out of playoff teams). I wouldn't make too much of this because part of that decline is due to their competition, which included three of the best penalty killers in the league. They were middle of the pack on the penalty kill (tied for 13th) in the regular season, and still fit that rank during the playoffs. Dallas was only 17th on the penalty kill in the regular season, which could mean trouble if this Stars' team is penalized. They were also worse on the power play during the regular season (13th), but have netted an impressive 27.3 percent of power play opportunities in the playoffs. The Dallas PP has been killing it of late, but their opponents were far less disciplined on the kill (especially Colorado and Vegas). I have to still give the edge to this dynamic TB power play unit, but both teams will probably do better on the power play than they will on the penalty kill.
Momentum: Not to say the Lightning don't have it, but the pressure is certainly on them to finally win a Stanley Cup. Dallas had much lower expectations going into this postseason, and has all the momentum in the world right now leading up to the final. This is really the one area that I give them the definite advantage. The Stars must play their game with confidence and that includes not fearing the spotlight, because this Tampa Bay team loves being centerstage (their clutch factor has won them more overtime games than any team in the bubble this playoffs). If Dallas can catch the Lightning off-guard in Game 1, they might be able to play this series out on their terms.
Injuries:
Dallas- Radek Faksa, Stephen Johns and Ben Bishop will all be unavailable for Game 1, and should be considered day-to-day as the Cup Final continues. Martin Hanzal and Roman Polak have missed the entire postseason, and will not return.
Tampa Bay- Jan Rutta will be unavailable for Game 1, and Steven Stamkos (who has missed the entire postseason) will remain out indefinitely.
The Tally:
H2H Record- Dallas
Scoring- Tampa
Goaltending- EVEN (if Khudobin can keep up his insane run)
Vets/Experience- Tampa
Depth/Grit- Tampa
Special Teams- Tampa
Momentum/Pressure- Dallas
Aside from all the pressure being on the Lightning, Tampa Bay is still the big-time favorite in my eyes. Besides, it wouldn't feel right picking against them after they have been the team that I've predicted to win the Cup since day one of the season back almost a year ago (and then all throughout the playoffs). The Lightning just look like a team on a mission this year, and although fate seems to be on the Stars side at times, TB has been a force in every facet of the game. They have even grown to become a grittier team in 2020, an area they were noticeably weaker at before this playoff run. I have no horse in this race, but I would be thoroughly surprised and impressed if the Dallas Stars finished as Stanley Cup Champions when all is said and done.
Prediction: Tampa Bay in 6
Game 1 is tonight! Coverage begins on NBC at 7:30 pm.
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