NHL Mid-Point: The Good, The Bad, & The Surprising

Here we are at the end of the NHL All-Star Weekend in St. Louis, as the playoff race begins to take full shape in hockey's greatest forum. I took a whirl at predicting the NHL Playoffs just before the 2019-2020 season began, which can be found in the link above, but hockey never seems to go exactly as we expect. I'll take a look at what I see as the big shockers so far, as well as the NHL constants that have dominated the first half of play.

Atlantic Division, CONTENDERS:

Bruins' David Pastrnak goes through the legs to score against Toronto. Photo Credit: MassLive

- Boston Bruins (1st, 70 points, EXPECTED); the Bruins are generally as steady a hockey team as there is in this league. They may not reign supreme as often as their New England brothers in the NFL, but they are usually in the conversation. David Pastrnak leads the way in his continual rise to the plateau of the "NHL elite," with 70 points already on 37 goals (1st in NHL) and 33 assists. On the defensive side, Charlie McAvoy is slowly taking the reins from long-time Boston great Zdeno Chara. This year McAvoy leads the squad in time on the ice (23:14 minutes per game) with 17 assists and a +9 rating. Starting goaltender Tuukka Rask has dealt with some concussion issues of late, so Head Coach Bruce Cassidy will look to have that sorted sooner than later. When Rask is in net, Boston is quite formidable defensively.

- Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 62 points, EXPECTED); I had the Lightning repeating as winners in the Atlantic (not in as domineering a campaign as last year, but still coming out on top). Not only that, I had them finally taking the Stanley Cup over the Dallas Stars. The surprise here was how slow they started out the year (I figured they would come out firing after the 2019 Playoff disaster), but now the Lightning are turning up the heat going 8-2-0 in January so far and 17-5-1 since December 1st. That's a scary thing for the rest of the league because if this stacked roster (Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Hedman, Vasilevskiy, etc.) catches fire, it will take something really special to stop them.

- Florida Panthers (3rd, 61 points, EXPECTED); not sure if this is a surprise to some, but I had the Panthers finishing right here in the three spot of the Atlantic. I even had them upsetting the B's in the first round of the Playoffs. Evgenii Dadonov is the top goal-scorer to this point with 23 gino's, but this is a deep offensive unit that currently averages more goals per game than any other team in the NHL at 3.67 goals. Jonathan Huberdeau, Mike Hoffman, Noel Acciari, Aleksander Barkov, and Brett Connolly all have 15+ G's and Huberdeau leads the team in points, adding 47 assists. Former Stanley Cup Champion Head Coach, Joel Quenneville, has his guys in a good spot in his first season with Florida, but he needs goalie Sergei Bobrovsky to return to form.

Things haven't gone as planned for John Tavares in Toronto. Photo Credit: NY Post

- Toronto Maple Leafs (4th, 57 points, BOTH); again, the Atlantic has gone pretty much as expected besides a Bruins-Lightning flip flop from my preseason thoughts (had Toronto 4th but did not have them missing the playoffs). With veteran Head Coach Mike Babcock finally canned, maybe this team can turn things around and finally live up to their lofty expectations. Auston Matthews has held up his end with 57 points in the first half, but the Leafs could really use more production from other high-paid stars like John Tavares, Michael Nylander, Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly, and Tyson Barrie. They may be 4th in the Atlantic, but they are currently four points back of the Carolina Hurricanes and a wildcard spot.

ON THE BRINK:

Both the Buffalo Sabres (EXPECTED) and Montreal Canadians (EXPECTED) have 51 points and are on the cusp of losing relevance in the 2020 playoff conversation. For Buffalo, the Carter Hutton goaltender signing has been a mess (.892 save%), and one of the few bright spots is the face of the franchise, Jack Eichel, who has 28 goals and 62 total points. The Canadians are a gritty team, but their major problem still remains, they have no superstar talent. Their highest point-scorer is Tomas Tatar (more known for his two-way ability) with 43, and goalie Carey Price (the strength of their roster for many years) is getting old.

LOTTERY HUNT:

The Ottawa Senators (EXPECTED) have improved a bit since last season, and have shown some life at least (former Rangers top prospect Anthony Duclair finally showing what he can do with 21 goals), but the Detroit Red Wings (EXPECTED) are currently living out one of the darkest periods in their great franchise's history with only 28 points in the first 51 games. Neither of these teams will factor in 2020's Cup race.

Metropolitan Division, CONTENDERS:

- Washington Capitals (1st, 71 points, EXPECTED... except by me); I had the Caps making the playoffs, but I thought they would take a step back overall. Instead, they have been a locomotive force of W's, currently topping the NHL in points. The reason I had them declining was mainly due to an aging championship roster that got expensive and past its prime (I thought). Stalwarts like Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, and Nicklas Backstrom have proven age is just a number with solid seasons all around. Add in Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jakub Vrna, TJ Oshie, and more... maybe I was wrong to think their run of Metro supremacy was over. One thing I would like to point out, goaltender Braden Holtby (who somehow made the All-Star team) has been pretty poor this season (.897 save%, 3.09 goals against). His backup and likely predecessor, 22 year old former first round pick Ilya Samsonov, has actually performed at a far superior level to Holtby with a commanding .927 save% and a 2.06 GAA (1st in NHL). If things don't change come playoff time, I wonder if we see a changing of the guards for the cup run.

Goaltending has been a major factor for the Penguins this season, especially that of Tristan Jarry, who has been spectacular. Photo Credit: NHL

- Pittsburgh Penguins (2nd, 67 points, SURPRISE); the Penguins still have Sidney Crosby, and they have been a playoff constant since he's entered the league, so to most this may not be surprising at all. It is to me. I had Pittsburgh finishing 7th in the Metro this season WITH Crosby. The really incredible thing is that they are currently in 2nd, and Crosby has missed OVER HALF of their games, only playing in 22 out of 50 in 2019-20. That's not all; Nick Bjugstad has only played 10 games, Patric Hornqvist 33, Bryan Rust 36, and Evgeni Malkin 37. Recently, star youngster Jake Guentzel was injured and is now slated to miss four to six months as well. How on Earth is this team playing at such a high level with all the key missing bodies? Part of the answer is a studly young pair of net-minders in Matt Murray (.900 save%, 2.84 GAA) and Tristan Jarry (.929 save%—tied for 1st in NHL—, 2.16 GAA), who practically split the occupancy evenly so far. Another has been the emergence of youth on the blue line, namely 22 year old John Marino (+12 in 48 games) and 23 year old Marcus Pettersson (+4 in 50 games). I give most of the credit to Head Coach Mike Sullivan however, who has continually found ways to win.

- New York Islanders (3rd, 63 points, EXPECTED); my pick to win the Metro this season are in the hunt just eight points back of Washington. Barry Trotz is the central figure for the Isles. His coaching schemes, emphasis, and overall system has worked everywhere he's gone. It brought NYI out of the depths of the division last year and it should earn this squad another playoff appearance again now. The Isles play a defensive low-scoring style that isn't flashy, but it works, and the players even seem interchangeable at times... besides maybe leading point-scorer Matthew Barzal (42 points).

Blue Jackets' Seth Jones should be in the running for the Norris Trophy this season, he might even win it. Photo Credit: NHL

- Columbus Blue Jackets (4th, 62 points, SURPRISE); Columbus has been the team that has shocked me most (from a positive perspective) in 2019-20's opening half. I pegged the Jackets as the team that would finish last in the Metro this year, not because I thought they were terrible, but because of how competitive the division is and because of how much star-power they lost (Panarin and Bobrovsky chief among them). Instead, they have been a wildcard dark-horse that is tied for second in the NHL in team goals against average (with Boston, both trail Dallas). You have to attribute a lot of this to the talented 25 year old D-man Seth Jones, a current and future leader of this franchise, but let's not forget about the 25 year old goaltending duo that has filled Bobrovsky's pads admirably (and then some); Joonas Korpisalo (.913 save%, 2.49 GAA) and Elvis Merzlikins (.926 save%, 2.39 GAA). The Blue Jackets certainly need to manufacture more goals, but veteran Head Coach John Tortorella has his team turning heads thus far.

- Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 61 points, SURPRISE); my pick for 6th in the Metro is currently hanging on in the final Eastern playoff spot. The Canes have picked up where they left off in the 2020 playoff run. They may not have the deepest roster, but they play well together and have some fierce star-power that pushes them into contention with Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, and Dougie Hamilton. 19 year old Andrei Svechnikov (#2 overall in the 2018 draft) has been a huge help with 19 goals and 26 assists in an impressive start to his second year in the league.

- Philadelphia Flyers (6th, 60 points, SURPRISE); this is more of a negative surprise for me, I thought the Flyers would be better this season. I had them finishing 3rd behind rookie goaltending prospect Carter Hart, with what I thought was a bulked up defense in front of him. Hart started a little slow, but has settled in since, and overall the defense has not been the problem. Lack of scoring and down-years from long-time faces of the franchise, Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek, has been more influential in Philly's lack of a playoff spot.

ON THE BRINK:

- New York Rangers (7th, 50 points, SURPRISE); statistically the youngest team in the NHL, the Rangers future will have a ton of upside no matter how 2020 ends, but as a Rangers fan I expected more from the current roster projecting them to finish 5th this season (especially after additions like Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba... who have both been tremendous by the way). This may be the most explosive Blueshirts lineup I've seen in a long time, with Panarin leading the way (68 points, including 26 goals), but also players like Mika Zibanejad (39 points in 35 games), Chris Kreider (17 goals), Ryan Strome (breakout season, 43 points), and a plethora of young offensive defensemen (Trouba, Adam Fox, Tony DeAngelo, and Brady Skjei). Their problem has been consistency, following stunning upsets with disappointing defeats. The goalie conversation is also an interesting one to follow, with the youthful pair of rookie Igor Shesterkin and second-year Alexandar Georgiev pushing "the King," Henrik Lundqvist, out the door.

LOTTERY HUNT:

The Metro division has been so strong of late that only one team has really struggled this season, and they were probably my greatest misfire in my predictions. I liked the New Jersey Devils (negative SURPRISE) as an unexpected 2nd place dark-horse in 2019-2020, but that pick went really wrong really fast. The goaltending was not there from Corey Schneider (sent to minors), big off-season GET defenseman PK Subban has not fit in whatsoever (-15 with only 11 points in 48 games), neither has acquisition Wayne Simmonds, first overall draft pick Jack Hughes doesn't look quite ready, Head Coach John Hynes was fired (and oddly hired immediately by Nashville), and oh yeah, former MVP Taylor Hall was sent packing to Arizona. Did I miss anything?

Central Division CONTENDERS:

- St. Louis Blues (1st, 68 points, BOTH); I wasn't sure if Jordan Binnington was a flash in the pan or a future top goaltender, so I projected them 3rd in a tight divisional finish. Still, I expected them to be right in the thick of the playoffs again, and they are. Now-backup Jake Allen has actually been the better goalie statistically in St. Louis (although Binners made the All-Star team similar to Holtby), but this is just a deep roster that can battle. David Perron's 49 points is the team best early on, but I really like this defensive unit which includes; Alex Pietrangelo (40 points, +12), Colton Parayko (+3), Vince Dunn (+13), Justin Faulk (leader in Carolina), Jay Bouwmeester (veteran presence), and more. By the way, they've done all this (for the most part) without their superstar forward, Vladimir Tarasenko, who's injury status for this season is unclear... bravo Coach Berube.

Av's Nathan MacKinnon is a handful for opposing defenses when he has the puck. Photo Credit: NHL

- Colorado Avalanche (2nd, 62 points, SURPRISE); most people were confident this young Avs team could be dangerous this season, but I wasn't sure how consistent they might be. I took them as a 4th place wildcard, but so far they have bested that projection. The MVP and leader of this team is certainly Nathan MacKinnon, who has also entered "elite" status of late. In 2019-20, he already has 72 total points on 30 goals and 42 assists, +7 on the ice. Of note is rookie defenseman Cale Makar, who is at the forefront of the Calder Memorial Trophy for the NHL's top first year player. He has 37 points on 11 goals and 26 assists. NHL's second ranked offense behind Florida is known for their firepower, but will starting goalie Phillip Grubauer and company be good enough in net to make a serious run at the cup?

- Dallas Stars (3rd, 58 points, EXPECTED); predicted to finished 2nd, the Stars are right where they need to be in the playoff race. I actually had them overtaking the rest of the Western Conference in the playoffs and losing to the Lightning in the Cup Final. I love Ben Bishop who is a brick wall in the crease (the Stars lead the NHL in goals against average this season), the Joe Pavelski signing went way under the radar, and something was telling me it was finally Tyler Seguin's time to bust loose as an MVP finalist. That last part hasn't really materialized, but Seguin has been the Stars' best with 36 points. This isn't a team that lights up the scoreboard, it relies on hard checking and sound defense. Not only is Bishop in the Vezina conversation again (.927 save%, 2.28 GAA), backup Anton Khudobin is right behind him (.927 save%, 2.30 GAA) with almost identical statistics. That only happens when the team holds a sturdy, united back-line in front of their net.

ON THE BRINK:

May be a little harsh for the Winnipeg Jets (EXPECTED) and Chicago Blackhawks (BOTH), who are only four points back of the Stars and three back of the wildcard at 54 points, but I don't really see either as a cup contender this season. I think that margin will likely widen as the season continues. I picked the Jets to have a down season, and finish last in the Central (they are tied for 4th but the lack of playoff positioning is why I marked 'expected'), but I actually had the Blackhawks sneaking into the final wildcard spot. If either team makes a run down the stretch, I still put my money on Chicago behind veterans Patty Kane (25 G, 38 A) and Jonathan Toews (30 assists), but also young guns Alex DeBrincat (35 points), rookie Dominik Kubalik (21 goals), Dylan Strome (30 points), and more. In terms of the Jets, my criticism comes of their lack of depth and defense. Yes Mark Scheifele (54 points), Kyle Connor (50 points), and Patrik Laine (45 points) make up a fearsome top line, but if not for Connor Hellebuyck's skill in goal, I think Winnipeg is further down in the standings.

Pred's Kyle Turris looks on after a Stars goal, along with the rest of Nashville, who hope things will start to click in the second half. Photo Credit: On the Forecheck

Rounding out the Central are two recent playoff usuals that have fallen on hard times. One I EXPECTED (Minnesota Wild- 52 points), one I didn't (Nashville Predators- 51 points, SURPRISE). Both rosters are made up of veterans that may be over the hill. The Wild find themselves relying on the likes of Eric Staal, Zach Parise, Ryan Suter, and Mats Zuccarello for goals. This is a franchise in need of a rebuild. The Preds are more confusing. I have to admit I wasn't too confident about it when I ended up keeping Nashville as repeat champs of the Central in my picks, but I figured they were the most well-rounded of a competitive group. I was wrong, and with former Head Coach Peter Laviolette now out the door (after an overall successful tenure), they quickly hire a failed coach in Hynes. This was a questionable decision, but I guess they are desperate to jump-start this lineup. Defenseman Roman Josi has been terrific (48 points, +23), but forwards like Kyle Turris, Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene, and even goalie Pekka Rinne have all disappointed with their efforts. I wouldn't count the Preds out completely, but they need to turn things around fast, or they might have to regroup this off-season.

Pacific Division CONTENDERS:

- Vancouver Canucks (1st, 58 points, EXPECTED); the seeding in this division is razor thin right now, so I wouldn't focus so much on what place each team is in, but I liked the Canucks as a playoff team this season. Right now they are. I foresaw big things from this squad offensively, but their defense definitely had some questions going into the season. Gifted goal-scorer, Elias Pettersson has not let me down with 21 goals and 51 total points, but the big standout for Vancouver has been defensive top prospect Quinn Hughes (29 assists and an All-Star appearance). JT Miller has also found happiness in his new home, with 46 points through the first half. Strong goaltending from 9-year vet Jacob Markstrom has helped, but is this young team ready to make the leap?

This Oilers' tag-team is one and two in the NHL in points this season. Photo Credit: Hockey Troll

- Edmonton Oilers (2nd, 57 points, SURPRISE); I'm pleased to be wrong about this one, no seriously, as a fan of the sport I've been waiting for this. The Oilers have probably the best player in the NHL, current point leader, Connor McDavid, and yet they have wasted his legendary potential early on in his career. We NEED to see this man in the playoffs. He currently has 27 goals and 49 assists this season, and his partner in crime has been Leon Draisaitl (who has really had a career season), is just one assist behind McDavid for NHL points leader (27 G, 48 A). There's no doubt that McDavid has had a hand in elevating Draisaitl's play (as the elite players tend to do), but with his career best being 105 total points in 2018-19, Leon is on pace to shatter that total. Now there's no doubt this team is top-heavy, and neither Mike Smith or Mikko Koskinen really move the needle in goal, but maybe McDavid is so good that none of that even matters.

- Calgary Flames (3rd, 57 points, EXPECTED); in my opinion, this is still the deepest team in the Pacific, although it doesn't have a player as talented as McDavid or a scorer like Pettersson. It is built well though, and I don't plan on changing my pick just yet, the Flames will repeat as champs in the Pacific when all is said and done this season, just one point back of the lead as it stands. We know the names of the top centers/forwards; Johnny Gaudreau (25 assists), Sean Monahan (36 points), Elias Lindholm (20 goals), Matt Tkachuk (38 points, All-Star)... but it's the defensemen I really like with captain Mark Giordano leading by example. With him are Noah Hanifin, TJ Brodie, Travis Hamonic, and Rasmus Andersson. Teamed with journeyman success story David Rittich and solid backup Cam Talbot in goal, I like Calgary down the stretch.

Taylor Hall makes the Coyotes a serious contender in 2020. Photo Credit: Arizona Sports

- Arizona Coyotes (4th, 57 points, SURPRISE); I ranked them 5th, but I didn't really see them being a factor in the playoff conversation. They even led this division for a bit, and could easily hop three spots in an instance and lead again. The trade for Taylor Hall changed everything, it gave the Yote's a bona fide superstar. He has 15 points in his first 16 games with Arizona, and gives this team a real shot at making some noise. Joining Hall are former first rounders Nick Schmaltz (28 assists) and Clayton Keller (33 points), but also vets like Oliver Ekman-Larsson (22 points), Phil Kessel (31 points), Alex Goligoski (22 assists), and Derek Stepan (21 points). A huge part of the Coyotes run is due to goalie Darcy Kuemper though, a Vezina contender and All-Star snub who is having a career season tied for the league lead in save% at .929.

- Vegas Golden Knights (5th, 57 points, EXPECTED); they may be ranked 5th, but keep in mind they are one win out of the lead, that's how even this division has been. Even so, the initial magic has begun to leave the City of Lights, and the scapegoat has been chosen. Out of nowhere, the Golden Knights fired Gerard Gallant, the man that coached this expansion roster of castaways to a Stanley Cup less than two years ago. This seems like a rash overreaction, and possibly grave mistake. The role players that made this team great aren't performing as they did in year one and two, but they are still only a point back of the division with newer Knights Max Pacioretty (21 G, 26 A) and Mark Stone (18 G, 28 A) carrying the load. The Pacific race might be the most fun as we head towards the 2020 NHL Playoffs.

LOTTERY HUNT:

There really are no 'on the brink' teams in the Pacific, it's the top five and the bottom three. Rewind 10 years and these three franchises owned the Pacific, and even Western Conference at times. The Los Angeles Kings (EXPECTED) won two Stanley Cups, but championships catch up to you as expensive long-term contracts end up aging poorly and lack of influential draft picks cause a void of young talent. I'm sure most fans would take that deal, a stretch of misery for two championships that are stamped in the history books forever, I know Ducks and Sharks fans would. During that time period, the Anaheim Ducks (EXPECTED) and San Jose Sharks (BOTH) also had a lot of success, only they never won the ultimate prize. Now they both find themselves down in the pit with Los Angeles. The Sharks are worst of all. I said they would miss the playoffs this year, but I didn't think they would be this bad. After giving a long-term deal to Erik Karlsson (31 assists), you get the feeling that they expected to compete again this season, it hasn't happened, and it may be time for San Jose to rethink the entire operation and start fresh.

I'll continue to monitor the NHL as we head towards the trade deadline and the 2020 Playoffs. At this point, anything can still change, and the wild ride is just beginning.